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Small Market Roundtable: Prime Time Scheduling

If you haven't been following the Small Market Roundtable series to this point, allow me to give you the opportunity to catch up here by pointing out the previous installments (in chronological order):

Stadiums at Pride of Detroit
Relocation at Big Cat Country
Free Agent Attraction at Stampede Blue
Media Coverage at Music City Miracles

(I'm pretty sure that's all of them.  If I missed any, I'll come back with an edit later on.)

This week's installment of the Small Market Roundtable deals with the gap in the scheduling of prime time games between large and small market teams.  How big is the gap?  Is there even a gap at all?  Read on, good people.

Quite honestly, it's my opinion that there are some factors that weigh more heavily on whether or not a team gets on prime time television than market size does.  Frankly, if these things went on market size, the Vikings would probably see more prime time games than they have, considering that Minneapolis-St. Paul is one of the top 10-15 media markets in the U.S.

The driving factor in getting prime time spots on the NFL schedule, in my opinion, is simply having a solid, consistently successful football team.  Take a look at the schedules for the last few years and look at which teams have gotten a lot of prime time games.

New England - 3 Super Bowls in the decade thus far.  Suppose people want to see them?
Indianapolis - This team wins 12-14 games a year and is always a contender in the AFC
Philadelphia - Four straight NFC Championship Games and a Super Bowl.

Those are just three examples.  On the other hand, if you take a look at some teams in bigger markets. . .

Chicago - One of the top 5 media markets in the nation.  But how many prime time games did the 2005 Bears (who went 11-5) get?  You know why?  Because the 2004 Bears sucked arse, and the networks thought nobody would want to see them in prime time.

New Orleans - Again, how many prime time games were the 2006 Saints scheduled for?  Why?  Because the 2005 Saints were freaking terrible, that's why.  How many are they scheduled for this year?  Exactly.  (I understand that New Orleans is no longer a "bigger" market, but it's an example of a team that was successful getting rewarded with prime time games the next season.)

Detroit and Arizona - When was the last time either of these teams have gotten significant prime time play?  They, like Minneapolis, are Top 15 media markets, but they don't get to play under the bright lights that often.

You can throw San Francisco and Houston in that category, too.

Teams that win get onto the big stage.  Why?  Because teams that win have a tendency to have more "bandwagon" fans than average to bad teams.  It's not just an NFL thing. . .this happens in every sport.  It's the nature of who we are as Americans. . .people always want to be associated with the best, whether it's the best car, the best house, the best clothes, whatever.  Teams like the Colts and Patriots and so on have more people that jump on the bandwagon than teams that aren't as consistently successful.

(Disclaimer:  I do NOT mean the above to imply that all Colts or Patriots fans are bandwagon jumpers.  Nobody thinks that's true.)

"But, Gonzo," I hear you saying, "the 2005 Packers went 4-12, and they still got a bunch of prime time games in 2006.  What gives?"  Well, there's probably a good, logical explanation for this.  I'll be damned if I can tell you what it is, but I'm sure there's one out there.  I have theories, but decorum prevents me from discussing them here.  I'll just say that the Packers are a "special" case and leave it at that for now.

By and large, I don't think the disparity in market sizes keeps teams from getting on prime time as much as their lack of success does.  This isn't Major League Baseball, where we get Yankees/Red Sox shoved down our throats for seven months (whether both teams are relevant to baseball's current landscape or not) because they're the two biggest teams from the two biggest markets with the two biggest payrolls and so on.  The Patriots get shoved down our throats because they win.  The Colts get shoved down our throats because they win.  The Bears and Saints will get shoved down our throats this year because they won.  If a team that's not expected to do much this year (such as Minnesota or Cleveland or Washington) has a successful season in 2007, you can bet they'll be on prime time a lot in 2008.

In many situations, big market NFL teams do have an advantage over small market (or, more accurately, "small revenue") teams.  This is one instance where I honestly believe that they do not.  The formula is much simpler than that. . .if you want to play on Sunday or Monday night, regardless of how big your team's market is, win more games.  The NFL's culture of parity allows teams to do just that on an annual basis.

Be sure to tune in next week for another installment of the SBN Small Market Roundtable!

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Good write-up, Gonz
I think I see things a bit differently from a Buffalo perspective. This coming season (2007), the Bills will host their first Monday night game since 1994. That was 1994. Now I know the Bills haven't exactly been successful, but the team did make the playoffs four times before the 2000 season (and after '94). Yet despite that success and consistent winning, we didn't get any prime-time games.

I think it's a combination of what you posit - market size and notoriety (or winning) of the team. Blend those together and you get a storyline. It is my belief that any prime-time game is scheduled because there's a storyline behind it. Buffalo/Dallas is chock-full of it: two Super Bowls, the return of Wade Phillips on Monday night? It doesn't matter that the Bills were 7-9, missed the playoffs for the seventh straight year and reside in one of the smallest markets - there's a storyline there, so they got the contest.

Buffalo Rumblings: the best Bills community on the Internet!

by Brian Galliford on Jun 19, 2007 8:18 PM CDT   0 recs

Ratings
It was surprising that TV ratings weren't discussed. It's all about which games are more likely to bring in the 18-34 males. The networks seem to pick games because they've got a hook that makes them think they can sell the game, even if the hook is laughable. For example, at the NFL Network, the press release hypes the 2007 slate of games they will show in prime time. One game is Cincinnati at San Francisco on Dec. 15th and is described as a "rematch of [the] thrilling" Super Bowls 16 and 23 that were played back when QB Alex Smith wasn't even alive or was a toddler. Or the rematch of the classic Ice Bowl between Dallas and Green Bay on Nov. 29th, despite the fact it will be played in Dallas and one would assume without as much ice. The entire 2007 NFL Network schedule is an odd match of playoff teams vs. non-playoff teams from 2006. I wonder if the NFL Network has to walk a fine line between the other networks and not take away an obviously good game each week from the networks that are shelling out so much for the TV rights.

However the 2007 Sunday Night Football schedule is filled with teams that made the playoffs. The first non-playoff team from 2006 to appear on Sunday night will be the Packers when they host Chicago in week 5. Obviously there is something special about the ratings when Chicago plays the Packers. One oddity with the NBC schedule is that the games appear strong through week 14, and then they picked three stinkers (Washington at NY Giants, Tampa Bay at San Francisco, and Kansas City at NY Jets) to end the season. There is no way the Madden cruiser is going from New York to San Francisco and then back to New York in December over a three week period. Maybe they just didn't care because they knew they would pick different games in November and December when the flexible scheduling kicks in.

The Packers had the prime-time spotlight in 2006 because there were some EXCITING !!! story lines like Green Bay at Seattle, Holmgren vs. Favre one last time (maybe), and the flexible schedule shifted the last regular season game to Green Bay at Chicago for Favre's LAST GAME !!! (oops). NBC has the chance to pick a legitimate week 17 game with playoff implications and it picks the game QB Rex Grossman doesn't even bother to prepare for.

I tried to find TV ratings online that show whether certain teams typically draw better national ratings. Although the data certainly exists, it isn't available to the public, as far as I could tell. Fox Sports seems to do the most bragging about ratings online and said the NFC championship game with New Orleans at Chicago was the highest rated championship game since 1997 when Carolina went to Green Bay. The 1997 NFC championship game was an interesting game to the casual fan since the Packers were having their best season since Lombardi was still their coach and Carolina had made a quick leap from expansion team to one win away from a Super Bowl. Despite subsequent NFC championship game appearances by mega market teams like the NY Giants and multiple Philadelphia appearances, small market Carolina and uber-small market Green Bay played in one of the most watched non-Super Bowl games in the last 10 years, despite the fact it was a lousy game and the Packers destroyed them. It doesn't seem like the networks look at small vs. big market teams, and instead look at what they think will sell.

Brandon from the Acme Packing Company

by Brandon on Jun 21, 2007 1:47 AM CDT   0 recs

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