White is Black, Down is Up, and Brad Childress was. . .Right?
Believe me. . .you have absolutely, positively no idea how much it hurt me to type that title.
So there we all were yesterday. . .and thanks, by the by, to everyone that participated in the game thread. . .watching the Beloved Purple battling tooth and nail with the Detroit Lions. After a Detroit punt had Minnesota set up with 1st and 10 from their own 14-yard line, the Vikings came out in a four-wide receiver, no back formation with Gus Frerotte lined up in the shotgun. Frerotte zipped a pass to his right to Bernard Berrian about seven yards down the field. . .and #87 proceeded to do the rest on his way to an 86-yard touchdown and the second-longest pass play in Vikings' history.
What happened after that is something that has been a bone of contention among folks in the comments here on the site.
At that point, the score was 10-8, due to Dan Orlovsky falling through a hole in the space-time continuum and completely forgetting where he was. Or something like that. Anyway, the folks at FOX were showing clips of the Berrian reception and some of the outstanding blocking that he received along the way. . .
. . .and when we went back to the game, Ryan Longwell was booting the extra point to make the score 10-9 in favor of the Lions.
I was a bit confused at the time. Why didn't the Vikings line up and go for two points and the tie right then and there? They had momentum, and with as crazy as things had been up to that point, nobody knew for sure if the Vikings would have another opportunity to take the lead. Heck, nobody knew for sure that the Lions wouldn't go downfield and tack on more points, either. And therein lies the reason for Childress' decision.
And, after further review, it's one of the few decisions that Brad Childress has made in his tenure as Vikings' coach that I agree with. There were three potential scenarios that could have happened at this point.
Scenario A. . .the Vikings go for the two-point conversion there and succeed. In that case, yes, it's a tie football game. It really doesn't make things any different to what they were after kicking the extra point. At that point, we're looking at Vikings 10, Lions 10 and the chance to be down by no more than one score had the Lions gone down and scored again.
Scenario B. . .the scenario that happened. Longwell lines up, knocks through the extra point, and the score goes to Lions 10, Vikings 9. Keep in mind, at the time of the Berrian touchdown, there were still about 20 minutes of game time left (NFL.com shows the play ending with approximately 4:29 left in the third quarter). Yes, I realize that the offense that the Vikings were facing was not a terribly good one. But that same offense also opened up the third quarter by, basically, shoving the ball down our throats and going 69 yards in 10 plays, concluding with a TD pass to Calvin Johnson. Another such drive would have made the score Lions 17, Vikings 9. Still, at that point, it would have remained a one-possession game, as a touchdown and a two-point conversion would have tied it for Minnesota.
Scenario C. . .the Vikings go for the two-point conversion and fail to convert (or Longwell misses the extra point. . .yeah, right). The score remains Lions 10, Vikings 8.
See where I'm going here?
At that point, had the Lions gotten the ball and scored another touchdown, the score would have gone to Lions 17, Vikings 8. . .and, unless my math is bad, you can't get nine points on one possession in the National Football League. Under this scenario, we'd be betting that an offense that had managed to put together one whole scoring drive (that lasted all of one whole play) in the first forty minutes of football was going to be able to put together two such drives in the remaining twenty. . .AND keep the Lions from scoring again.
Yes, there would have been way more bravado and far more cojones shown by Childress had he gone for two there. But, in this case, while bravado and cojones are nice. . .winning is nicer. And, frankly, the decision to go for the extra point (which has a conversion rate of about 99%) rather than going for two (which has a conversion rate of between 40 and 45%, depending on your source) was the best decision.
Don't get me wrong. . .I still don't like the guy as our coach, and there's a part of me that hopes a scenario develops where the Vikings can win AND fire Brad Childress at the same time. But, in this one particular instance, I can't get terribly angry at Major Dad for the call he made.
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I respectfully disagree.
After we got the extra point, if the Lions scored another touchdown, we’re down by eight again. By your logic, we again go for the extra point…. and remain behind.
If you have the chance to tie, you need to go for it. That’s all there is to it.
by Robert Rence on Oct 13, 2008 2:14 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
The time issue
Does have something to do with it as well, yes. Obviously, if there’s 4 minutes left in the fourth quarter, it’s a different scenario than if there’s 4 minutes left in the third quarter or something like that.
Yes, had the Lions gone down and scored another touchdown, we would have been in an 8-point hole again. And had we scored another touchdown, then yes, going for two at THAT point is the correct call. But there’s no reason to put your team into a two-possession hole any earlier than necessary.
In a different scenario. . .say you’re down by 10 points with time winding down, you’re in field goal range, and it’s 4th down. You need to get two scores. Either way, you’re going to have to take your chances with the onside kick and hope you can score again. In that scenario, the no-brainer call (in my opinion) is to kick the field goal to put yourself within one score, and try to get the TD after the onside kick. There’s no point in going for the TD there (unless you’re on the 1" line or something), because a) you’re just wasting more time and b) if you don’t get in, you’re screwed.
Childress kicking the (basically) automatic extra point in that situation kept the Vikings within one possession, even if the Lions had gone down to score another TD. I can’t see a scenario where putting yourself in position to be down by two scores at that point is the correct call.
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by Gonzo on Oct 13, 2008 2:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You are absolutely correct
I don’t know how much easier you can lay it out for everyone. Childress made the right call. And, as I mentioned below, Childress showed a great amount of trust in his team in making this decision. He trusted that special teams would cover the kick, the defense would keep the Lions from scoring, and his offense would get them into position to win the game.
He trusted them, and they rewarded him with a win. That is a story that you aren’t going to see being told anywhere.
‘And the wild things roared their terrible roars and gnashed their terrible teeth and rolled their terrible eyes and showed their terrible claws’.
by SippyCup on Oct 13, 2008 2:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Laying out the probabilities:
If the Vikes get the 2 pt conversion and:
No-one scores for the remainder of standard time: Game goes to OT.
Lions score a FG in the remainder of standard time: Vikes are down by 3. Can tie with a FG or win with a TD and XP
Lions score a TD and XP in the remainder of standard time: Vikes are down by 7 and need a TD and XP to tie.
If the Vikes get the XP and:
No-one scores for the remainder of standard time: Vikes lose, 10 – 9
Lions score a FG in the remainder of standard time: Vikes are down by 4. Cannot tie with a FG or win with a TD and XP
Lions score a TD and XP in the remainder of standard time: Vikes are down by 8 and need a TD and 2 pt conversion to tie.
If the Vikes fail to get the 2pt conversion and:
No-one scores for the remainder of standard time: Vikes lose, 10 – 8
Lions score a FG in the remainder of standard time: Vikes are down by 5. Cannot tie with a FG or win with a TD and XP
Lions score a TD and XP in the remainder of standard time: Vikes are down by 9 and need a TD and another score to win.
Yeah, it’s a risk. But the only way it’s riskier to go for the 2pt conversion versus the XP is if we fail and the Lions get another TD. The benefits from getting the 2 pt conversion outweigh the risk of the 2 pt conversion.
by Robert Rence on Oct 13, 2008 3:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactally...
Thank you for laying out all the scenarios. It really came down to simple cost/benifit analysis. The rewards outweighed the risks and we were still gambling on hypotheticals with over 20 minutes left to play, if he was already calculating how much time he had to lose then why the hell is he in there in the first place?
by FSUViking on Oct 13, 2008 3:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's about percentages
You are making it seem like it is so easy to score a two point conversion, as if there was less of a chance that we wouldn’t make it.
Childress showed trust in his team, especially his defense that has been stomping on the Lions most of the day… Also, there was a whole 4th quarter left to be played.
‘And the wild things roared their terrible roars and gnashed their terrible teeth and rolled their terrible eyes and showed their terrible claws’.
by SippyCup on Oct 13, 2008 3:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Same thing
Its the same thing, weighing up the percentages for one over the other, given the circumstances we were in.
I know its difficult to score 2 points still I think it was the wrong call to go for the XP, thats just something we will agree to disagree given the team and the position we were in at the time we were.
by FSUViking on Oct 13, 2008 3:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It IS about percentages.
And I would’ve responded sooner but I had to get the stats to back me up.
It’s is a league average right now that getting a 2 pt conversion is 45% (See Childress’ press conference today
Currently, we’ve scored 10 touchdowns this year.
Two of those are defensive, dropping it to eight.
We’ve possessed the ball 76 times this year, giving us approximately ten and a half percent chance. Given that the average amount of possessions we would have had for the remainder or the game is four, that gives us a 42% chance to score a touchdown for the rest of the game.
by Robert Rence on Oct 13, 2008 4:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK
I’m not really trying to argue, but I must add a point to your above comment.
The Vikings only needed a field goal to win the game, not a touchdown. I imagine our chances of kicking the extra point, and then kicking a field goal in the fourth, are a lot better than 42%….
This was about Brad Childress trusting his entire team to win it in the fourth. He needed defense, special teams, and offense all to get him the win… Regardless of kicking an extra point or attempting a 2-point conversion.
You also have to consider that the Lions were doing a pretty good job of stopping the run for the better part of the game. If they went for two, I don’t think I could have watched.
‘And the wild things roared their terrible roars and gnashed their terrible teeth and rolled their terrible eyes and showed their terrible claws’.
by SippyCup on Oct 13, 2008 5:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Chances of getting a field goal
In the same situation, it’s higher than 80%.
Any way you put it, the Vikes still needed to score again in order to take the lead, so I don’t see where the trust issue is.
And really, it’s been hard to watch our offense any time this year.
by Robert Rence on Oct 13, 2008 6:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think I disagree this time, Gonzo...
Here’s my rationale…
That game was extremely LOW scoring…from beginning to end.
Normally, playing to prevent a 9 pt deficit would make sense. However, there was so little scoring that it did not seem appropriate to risk ending the game in a 10-9 tie.
The way the defenses had been playing, you have to admit that 10-9 was probably a stronger possibility than 17-8
by mjmrad on Oct 13, 2008 11:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rejoce Gonzo - Childress was wrong!
You don’t need to worry about defending Childress. Your gut was in the right spot (although not your head) – he was wrong and should have gone for the 2pt’er.
Think of it this way. Your team is down by 15 points with <20 minutes to play and you score a TD. Do you go for the two point conversion? Yes! Because you want to know as soon as possible if you are going to succeed at it. If not, you’ll be down 9 and need two scores. Better to know that early and adjust your game plan accordingly.
That’s effectively the situation the Vikes were in. If Detroit scores another TD and the Vikes had kicked the extra point and then score a TD they’ll try a 2pt’er and either be tied or down by two. Exactly the same situation as would have arose had Chilly tried the 2pt’er at the end of the 3rd quarter. He absolutely should have done it then to give the team more time to game plan based on the outcome.
The only possible downside to being down by 2 pts instead of 1 is if the Lions score 2 more FGs in the 4th quarter than the vikings. That’s a lot less likely than the ~50% chance of making the conversion.
If I was big-Z I’d have made a note on my cocktail napkin that said ‘Fire Childress’ when the kicking team went out.
by Lou W on Oct 13, 2008 2:14 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Your math is correct, Gonzo
Childress was correct about it not being the right time to go for two. He was thinking ahead.
Lou W, I don’t know where you get your ideas from, but they are wrong. Sure, if we were down by 15, then I say go for it. However, we were down by 8, with lots of time left. Childress showed some faith in his offense with this move. He showed faith by trusting that they will make it down the field again to win the game. His offense rewarded his faith by doing just what he entrusted them to do.
‘And the wild things roared their terrible roars and gnashed their terrible teeth and rolled their terrible eyes and showed their terrible claws’.
by SippyCup on Oct 13, 2008 2:37 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
In addition
I guess you could say Childress showed great trust in his entire team, not just his offense.
‘And the wild things roared their terrible roars and gnashed their terrible teeth and rolled their terrible eyes and showed their terrible claws’.
by SippyCup on Oct 13, 2008 2:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Faith
Does Childress have a choice?
Judd Zulgad asked something like (and I’m paraphrasing) , “What if it ended with a final score of 10-9? What would be said then?” Would we have been 2-4 and looking at an interim coach?
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by Luft Krigare on Oct 13, 2008 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, How made Judds can dance on the the head of a pin?
Childress’ choice says that what the fans are chanting has nothing to do with winning this football game; He believes in this team, and if the team doesn’t return the favor, then Zyg may as well fire him right now. Keep the faith in you heart and your eyes on the prize. The opera isn’t over until the gravitationally-challenged lady sings.
by Elgar on Oct 13, 2008 2:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hey now
I am all for Childress getting fired. Making one right choice does not make up for a career filled with ineptitude.
However, the conversation at hand is about whether or not this call was the right one. The Vikings won the game, Childress made the right call.
Football logic, and arithmatic, tells me that going for a two-point conversion should only be considered when it is the only choice to consider.
‘And the wild things roared their terrible roars and gnashed their terrible teeth and rolled their terrible eyes and showed their terrible claws’.
by SippyCup on Oct 13, 2008 3:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why Childress was Right
You do not go for the two points with over 19 minutes to play. Here is why Brad Childress is an NFL head coach and Sludge and Lake find themselves at work talking to ninnies on the radio:
If going for two points were commonly the better choice, NFL teams would always go for two, but in the long run, if you go for two, you score fewer points.
The head coach knows going for two with another quarter to go would be a sign of desperation. It would say to his team: with over a quarter left in the game, I have no confidence that we can beat the lowly Lions with some kid at quarterback who is not even familiar with how deep the end zone is.
No, the head coach sees this in his eyes: my defense is fired up. They have the pride to be offended that the Lions have scored a touchdown on them, and they will knock the crap out of the Lion offense for the rest of this game, especially if the Lions think they can cling to a one-point lead. We have AD and Chester Taylor, and if we can’t get at least a field goal with 19 minutes left, how do we expect to win in OT?
by Elgar on Oct 13, 2008 2:46 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Food for thought
Ok so we won on a last second FG to win by 2 points.
A last second FG, meaning for over a quarter we were still down a point with honestly pretty grim looking outcomes, then suddenly we manage to get into FG range. EVEN after we missed that 1 FG.
I’m sorry but I completely think that call was wrong. It doesn’t show you don’t have faith in your team, if anything it shows you can get the job done when it counts. Its sooooooooooooo much easier to lineup and kick the extra point, its alot harder to go for 2 and make it. Thats the problem in itself though isn’t it? Childress does what is easy and what is going to mean that he still has a job with us.
That call along with the punt during the Titans game are pretty much horrible in my eyes. I have no idea why someone would think you are quitting on your team when you go for 2 in the 3rd quarter only down by 2 and the worst that can happen is you don’t make it and are still down 2. We had over 4 minutes in the 3rd and the 4th to come back, its really not even a question.
If you had faith in your team you would know that they had the tools to get the 2 and that they had the tools to stop the Lions. He choose to go with whats easiest, to keep people from questioning why for the entire game our offense looked like a high school team.
Look at it this way, IF ,and i say IF, the vikings had lost because of that 2 point conversion call, I don’t think anyone in thier right mind would be here saying he made the right call given the time we had remaining. Its completely insane!
Perhaps Chilly and I have fundamental differences over game plans but ultimately that was a bad move. Even if DET goes down and scores, your still down a TD and 2 points, so regardless you put yourself in a position where you might have to go for 2 at a much more crucial point in the game. Given the way our O was working I would be wayyyyyy more likely that we were going to have another shot of making a TD or even a FG than the Lions coming down and doing it to us, so if they have a better shot, why wouldn’t we take our shots when they come?
Lastly, I want to say that I agree Lou W. I would rather know the odds I am looking at straight up rather than be strung along only to be punched in the balls down the line. And isn’t this what happens in most Childress games? Hangs in there until he finds out a way for us to lose?
I love the vikings to death but we are seriously getting no where with Childress. These wins only prolong someone who is not in touch with our football team. He doesn’t even know when to use a screen for christ sake!!!! Seriously, it seems that this season we have steadily gotten worse only for us to somehow win games, must say alot about our opponents…
by FSUViking on Oct 13, 2008 3:12 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
enough already
every week you people get on Chilly’s ass like he’s got some kind of mind control over the players….now , before you all jump me for taking his side, NOBODY wants this buffoon fired more than I do….but look at things objectively….the majority want him fired so bad that they are actually BOOING at home games….jesus h christ, grow up….yeah, he needs to go, and we need a different HC….but I doubt God himself could just walk in and create a winner with this roster….seriously….we’re just barely gettin by at QB…( but one thing I learned about Gus yesterday, is that he is tough)….our superstar RB suddenly has a penchant for coughing up the ball in the redzone…..coaching.?..not likely, but I’m sure that all those with the AD manlove will find every excuse in the book to defend him….we’ve lost our defensive leader and best tackler to IR…..
bad play calling, bad decisions, and lack of leadership are all qualities that Brad Childress lacks…..but I’ve said this all year….this TEAM was overrated from the beginning, and without a better than average QB,a very good Defense and the best RB in the League ain’t gonna make a difference….
look around the league….PARITY…look at the games yesterday…..PARITY
we just have to win IN SPITE of bad play, bad decisions, bad coaching, and the continual bitching and whining by the people who probably really haven’t been around when the Vikings REALLY sucked….
and YOU ARE RIGHT ON again Gonzo….2pt conversion was too early, and you explained it the way a coach would look at it…
by Hilton Head viking on Oct 13, 2008 3:39 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I (*gulp*) agree as well.
Well done describing all the possible scenarios Gonzo, but my position is that you always go for 1 until the 4th quarter*. There’s simply too much time left and too many scoring scenarios where a slightly less than 50/50 chance of a 2-point conversion (I believe the NFL average for 2-point conversions is just under 50%) can come back to hurt you instead of taking the sure thing.
- = The only scenario where I would maybe go for 2 before the 4th quarter is if we were down big by some multiple of 8—such as 16, 24, or 32. Something where you’d need to go for 2 every time to reduce the number of scores needed.
by ericj69 on Oct 13, 2008 4:46 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Not really Childress' decision
All the NFL teams have cards with calculations that figure out what you did above. All Childress did was look at his card and do what somebody else had already figured out for him.
by SammyG on Oct 13, 2008 4:51 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Except
that according to Brads card, and this is in his own words, “It is on the chart, it says go for it.” So Chilli went against the chart and went the safe route. however, in this case it may have been the right decision. or ultimately it probably wouldn’t have mattered, but he still showed his natural tendency towards risk aversion, even when the charts say it’s okay. and that tendancy has helped our opponents to stymie our offense.
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by the Real Thor on Oct 13, 2008 11:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
you're right
funny, i didn’t think of that at the time but you’re totally right about that one. Way to go, Brad.
by skiumah06 on Oct 13, 2008 6:58 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Sorry, Gonzo...
…but I’ve got to say you are wrong here. As they say on “Law and Order”, you’re assuming facts not in evidence. Yes, if we’re down 10-9 and the Lions score a touchdown, it’s still a one possesion game and so on. But what are the chances of those three events (Lions TD, Vikes TD, Vikes 2-pt conversion) happening? You have to give consideration to way the game was going – low scoring, inconsistent Vikings offense – as you make your decision. The most likely scenario was what happened: that any remaining scores would be field goals. And, with that in mind, being down 2 was no different than being down one. Finally, this is a classic case of “paralysis by analysis”. You’re overthinking it. If you have a chance to tie it, you try to tie it.
by mavikesfan on Oct 14, 2008 7:43 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Ha!
I agree with you, but there is no way Childress went through all that by himself. He had a 50/50 chance to gain approval from the fans…so he took a wild guess.
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by Andersklasen on Oct 14, 2008 10:26 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Well now.
This decision HAS to be circumstantial. You have to look at how the game has been played and how it is most likely to be played out. In a high scoring game where its 26-28 with four minutes left in the third its a No-brainer, you kick the extra point, take that point and play on. But….
Up to that point in the game the vikings scored ZERO points offensively. ZERO. Then gus throws a seven/eight yard pass to Berrian who makes a little move, a lion completey misses a tackle, a little burst from BB, and he scores a long TD. One good/lucky play. Besides that a ‘Defensive’ battle(slash another great KickAssOffense production)… Seriously, play the situation… and go for the tie. I know you don’t wanna be looking at a 9 point deficit, but if thats gonna happen and you kick the XP you would be looking at a 8 point deficit, and then you would still have to make the two pointer later on in the game (and if you miss it, you have little or no time to make up for it)…
Conventional wisdom is to take the XP, but it has to be situational, and no matter how many arguments you can come up with, in that situation, with our Defense (and their offense), and our “offense”, we should have gone for the tie. Period.
by footballninja on Oct 14, 2008 1:13 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I can buy some of that, but...
…this was a game against the DETROIT FREAKING LIONS, people!!! Not the Barry Sanders Lions. Not even The Great Jon Kitna Lions! This game was against the Dan Orwhosky? Lions. Childress chose to kick the PAT for fear of falling one or more touchdowns behind the LIONS!!!
Even if Childress can be credited with making the right move, it is only proof that that KAO is too lame to kick anything in the NFL. It was proof that he had zero faith in his more talented team and system and coordinators.
Without a doubt, this is the most dubious, softest, ugliest, and least meaningful 3-3 team record I have ever seen. It sort of reminds me of when this very same team was 4-2 a couple years ago.
by KC Viking on Oct 14, 2008 3:56 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
If we had gone for two and missed – you’d hear a giant whooshing sound as our momentum caved in like the Metrodome used to do the first couple of winters…
Culpepper, the Carter’s and Moss don’t play here anymore. Like it or not, Minnesota is a smash-mouth football team now. You take the high percentage points and start slugging it out again.
by dkerfoot on Oct 14, 2008 9:32 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

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