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Looking Ahead...Potential Tiebreaks

When looking ahead to the tiebreakers that would be needed in the event of a tie atop the division with the Bears, I am pleased to report that the Vikings are in GREAT position. Let's take a look:

Firstly, the only thing I am going to assume is that the Vikings beat Detroit. If one can assume anything, it must be this.

Case: Minnesota wins 2 out of 3 from: (@Ari, Atl, NYG)

This leaves the Vikings at 10-6. Chicago would then need to go 4-0 (Jac, NO, GB, @Hou) in order to tie us atop the division. In this case, we would both be 4-2 in the division, so we would then move on to the next tiebreaker, record in common games (AFC South and NFC South). The Vikings are 4-3 with Atl remaining. The Bears would be 4-4. So if the Vikings beat Atlanta, they win the division. If they lose to Atlanta, we would move on to the next tiebreaker, which is Conference record. Minnesota would be 8-4, and Chicago would be 7-5.

Summary: If the Vikings win 2 of their last 3, Chicago would need to go 4-0 to tie. But Chicago would lose any potential tiebreaker.

Verdict: Vikings chance of winning division a 100% MORTAL LOCK.

 

Case: Vikings win 1 out of 3 from (@Ari, Atl, NYG). Vikings finish 9-7. If Chicago wins out (4-0 against Jac, NO, GB, @Hou), then they win the division. If Chicago wins 3 out of 4, then we would be tied at 9-7. If Chicago's loss is to GB, then we would win the divisional record tiebreaker. If Chicago's loss is to Jac, NO, or Hou, then we would proceed to a common games tiebreaker. Chicago would be 3-5 in common games. Vikings would be 4-3 + a W or L to Atlanta. So Vikings would win the division.

Summary: If the Vikings win 1 of their last 3, Chicago would need to win all 4 remaining games to win the division. If they go 3-1, the Vikings win all tie breakers.

Verdict: Vikings chances of winning division are extremely good.

 

Case: Vikings lose all 3 of their remaining games (@Ari, Atl, NYG). This leaves the Vikings at 8-8. If Chicago goes 4-0 or 3-1, they win the division. If they go 2-2, we would be tied at 8-8. If one of Chicago's losses is to GB, we win the divisional record tiebreaker. If Chicago beats GB, we win the common games tiebreaker.

Summary: If the Vikings win 0 of theur last 3, then Chicago would need to go 4-0 or 3-1 over their last 4 to win the division. If they go 2-2, the Vikings win all tiebreakers.

Verdict: Vikings chances of winning the division are alive and healthy, despite potentially gonig into the playoffs with a 3 game losing streak.

 

Summary of Summaries: In essence, the Vikings will win any tiebreaker againt Chicago, so you can assume that the Vikings have a 2 game lead in the division right now. If we beat Detroit, there are only 3 games remaining, and we'll have at at-worst lead of 2 games over the Bears. So the only way we lose the division is if we only win 1 of our remaining 3 games and Chicago wins all 4 remaining games (highly unlikely), or we lose all 3 remaining games and Chicago wins at least 3 of 4 of their remaining games (certainly possible, certainly not probable).

So there you go. Talk of needing to win 2 of 3 out of @Ari, Atl, NYG is now false. In fact, if we win 1 of these games, the only way we lose the division is if Chicago wins all 4 remaining games. In other words, we are looking good.

Chances of Vikings making the playoffs: 75%

This FanPost was created by a registered user of The Daily Norseman, and does not necessarily reflect the views of the staff of the site. However, since this is a community, that view is no less important.

1 recs  |  Comment 8 comments

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You forgot Green Bay

If the Pack wins their next 4 and the Vikes only win 2, then they win the division.

by KC Viking on Dec 1, 2008 11:07 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

yeah true. but the packers are 1-4 in their last 5 and 3-7 in their last 10. it isn’t easy to win 4 NFL games in a row, regardless of schedule.

by yanksrule08 on Dec 1, 2008 11:20 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

correct me if I'm wrong but

In your case where MN goes 1-3, wouldn’t Chicago win the division if they go 3-1? They would win by record because we are only one game ahead of them.

But tie breakers are great for us. The only scenario Chicago wins the division is by winning it outright meaning they have to be 2 games better than us over the final four.

what you say here can, and will, be used against you

by GopherNation on Dec 1, 2008 12:55 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

assuming a Det win for us

that is the key game in all of this. If we lose to Det and they beat GB then they get Div record tiebreaker and all bets are off

what you say here can, and will, be used against you

by GopherNation on Dec 1, 2008 12:56 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, that’s what I said. going 1-3 is equivalent to winning 0 of the last 3 games in my We must beat Detroit to even warrant thinking about maybe going to the Playoffs scenario.

by yanksrule08 on Dec 1, 2008 1:46 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

So what you're saying is

I need to cheer for Green Bay? Hmmm, I might need to take a shower right after that game no matter the outcome.

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Dec 1, 2008 1:32 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

actually, as was mentioned above, I forgot to give Green Bay a non-zero chance of winning the division. And Green Bay’s hardest game left is at Soldier Field, so I’m kind of rooting for Chicago to beat the Pack and then lose one of their other games.

by yanksrule08 on Dec 1, 2008 1:49 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

RE: Tie Breakers.

Are you guys sure that record in common games is before conference record? I think that its the other way around—conference record then record against common opponents. I could be wrong but i dont think so.

by stratoscaster on Dec 1, 2008 6:31 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

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