The Myth of Jared Allen's Fourth Quarter Sack Production

by Gonzo on May 9, 2008 9:05 PM CDT in Vikings

As I read the comments in the fanpost over on the side connected to the Jared Allen interview posted by FSU Viking, I said I'd be curious to see a breakdown of the number of run plays and pass plays used by KC opponents in the games that Jared Allen played in last season.

Well, curiosity killed the. . .something or other. So, I set about breaking this down myself. Keeping in mind that Allen missed the Chiefs' first two games last season, here's how the fourth quarters of the 14 games the Chiefs played in 2007 looked like.

Opponent	Score after 3	Opp. Pass Plays	Opp. Run Plays	Final Score
MIN	MIN 10, KC 6	12	3	KC 13, MIN 10
@ SD	KC 16, SD 16	12	2	KC 30, SD 16
JAC	JAC 10, KC 0	9	11	JAC 17, KC 7
CIN	KC 20, CIN 7	21	2	KC 27, CIN 20
@ OAK	OAK 7, KC 6	8	4	KC 12, OAK 10
GB	GB 13, KC 7	6	5	GB 33, KC 22
DEN	DEN 20, KC 11	5	13	DEN 27, KC 11
@ IND	KC 10, IND 10	9	7	IND 13, KC 10
OAK	KC 17, OAK 13	5	6	OAK 20, KC 17
SD	SD 17, KC 10	4	11	SD 24, KC 10
@ DEN	DEN 41, KC 7	3	4	DEN 41, KC 7
TEN	TEN 20, KC 17	1	15	TEN 26, KC 17
@ DET	DET 22, KC 14	6	11	DET 25, KC 20
@ NYJ	NYJ 10, KC 3	7	17	NYJ 13, KC 10 (OT)

By my count, that's 108 pass plays and 111 run plays faced by the Chiefs' defense in the 14 games that Jared Allen participated in. However, if you look at the games that they lost, those numbers change to 55 pass plays and 100 run plays, a nearly 2:1 ratio in favor of the run. It's relatively tough to get sacks when the other team isn't. . .you know. . .throwing the football. Looking at the play-by-play stuff I sifted through in order to put that table together, I didn't see a lot of other Kansas City Chiefs racking up sacks in the fourth quarters of ball games either, and we know that Allen was the only guy on that line that was worthy of being double-teamed.

In addition, there's more to Allen's pass-rushing than just sacks. Last season, he also had 24 quarterback hurries, which is a pretty significant number. To put that in perspective, Minnesota's leader in that department. . .Kenechi Udeze. . .had 15. E.J. Henderson was next in line with 11. So Allen had almost as many quarterback hurries in 2007. . .in two fewer games, mind you. . .than the Vikings' top two players in that category combined. And, again, he did it on a defensive line that didn't have a whole lot else. Tamba Hali is a nice player, but with Allen out of the picture, I expect to see him getting more of those double teams until Glenn Dorsey can establish himself in the middle.

I expect Allen to be in a much different situation with the Vikings this season. As the Vikings' offense prepares to take another step forward in its development, I expect them to have the lead going into the fourth quarter on many, many occasions in 2008. Since he'll be lining up next to the Irresistible Force and the Immovable Object on the Vikings' defensive line, he'll also be seeing. . .and destroying. . .more one-on-one blocking. There have been a couple of places I've seen predicting a possible 20-sack season for Allen. Honestly? I'd love to see it. I don't know if I'd predict as many as 20, what with there no longer being any spineless QBs in the NFC North that might be willing to take a dive for him, but he should get a significant number of sacks in 2008. . .and plenty in the fourth quarter, too.

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Allen Sacks by Quarter...

Gonzo…just wondering if you have the 15.5 sacks and 24 hurries from Allen broken down by quarter?

by Viking4Life on May 9, 2008 9:38 PM CDT reply reply 0 recs

Great Read through. I couldn’t bring myself to predict 20+ sacks this season, more so because if I even wanted to something bad would probably end up happening. Having said that, I do think he will at the very least bring something to the table that we have lacked, consistency at getting to the QB.

by FSUViking on May 10, 2008 3:37 AM CDT reply reply 0 recs

Jared Allen affect

There was a question posed by a friend, Jason Winter, about what should we expect in the way of sack totals from Jason Allen this year. He ran the numbers of all defenders in recorded history [since they started keeping the stat] from where they had their 15+ sack season and then three years out. The findings were interesting.

What to expect from Jared Allen

With only two players ever repeating their 15+ sack performances the following year, would you be disappointed if Allen’s production dropped? I would if it dropped off the charts [like by 10 sacks] and he was healthy, yes, but I think and hope that he is the third player in recorded history to notch back to back 15+ sack seasons. I hope you are correct in you 20+ prediction.

You think that the O will step up this year and we should be leading in the fourth quarter, and I agree, but there is also the factor the Kansas City didn’t have, and that is the ability to shut down the run. A good comparison might be to see the pass versus run ratio in the fourth quarter against the Vikings last year and see the increased opportunities for Jared.

Another question worth asking is: if Kevin Williams’ and or Ray Edwards’/Brian Robison’s sack totals shot way up because Allen was sucking up more double teams, would you be just as pleased or disappointed?

It may take a village to raise a child, but it takes a Viking to raze a village.

by Luft Krigare on May 10, 2008 5:12 AM CDT reply reply 0 recs

I'm thinking the same thing

Luft writes:

I think it whould be more fair to value Allen’s contribution as a whole by seeing how many sacks, QB rushes, and stopped for losses as a defensive line creates this year compared to last year. Maybe we should also consider how many times our defensive line gets held compared to last year.

We are in luck Viking fans. We are going to see some good scarey numbers created this year if all stay healthy.

I can’t wait, I’m drooling to see this line in action. We are going to have fun.

This isn’t the black and blue division anymore. It’s all purple.

GO VIKES!

Ya Sure You Bettcha

by The Bears are Ditkaless on May 10, 2008 1:41 PM CDT reply reply 0 recs

JA is a relentless pass rusher. Being a Chief fan… the trade is a win/win for both teams. The AFCW uses alot of bootlegs, and Allen bit alot on them. Your DT’s are much better than ours, maybe thats the difference. You guys will like the way Jared plays… He has personal demons he will have to deal with, but as a player, he gives you everything. Dont know how the big contract will affect him…..there are always busts in FA when they sign their huge contracts. You guys got a heck of a player… not sure he’s worth the money he got….. but if you win…. does it really matter?

by ArrowheadMagic on May 11, 2008 2:53 AM CDT reply reply 0 recs

heh, the spineless QB no longer in the division, I am guessing, you’d probably wouldnt mind him being your QB the last 15 yrs. Or would you prefer Culpepper? But guess since you gave an alcoholic a 31 mil guaranteed contract…. he isnt as big of a drunk as someone you cut. But he hasnt done it on your teams watch yet.

by ArrowheadMagic on May 11, 2008 3:06 AM CDT reply reply 0 recs

And he won't

Do it on our team’s watch, either.

As far as the QB. . .no, I wouldn’t want the most overrated player in the history of the NFL associated with this franchise. We have enough difficulty winning big games. . .why would we want the guy that single-handedly pissed more playoff games down his leg than any QB in history?

The Daily Norseman - The greatest Vikings' site on the Internet!

by Gonzo on May 11, 2008 2:11 PM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

And as far as the $31 million thing

If your team’s GM wasn’t such an arrogant prick, your team would have paid Allen the same money and welcomed him back with open arms.

In that case, I would guess, he’d be a completely changed man, yes?

The Daily Norseman - The greatest Vikings' site on the Internet!

by Gonzo on May 11, 2008 2:13 PM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

Link?

Since you like to make completely baseless statements and bash Favre even when he’s retired (seems cheap and sad), let’s see some evidence to your comment that he pissed more playoff games than any QB in history…or our you just showing your true Viking colors.

I’m sure the Vikings could have used the most overrated player in the NFL sometime this decade. I like how you completely generalize all Packer fans on this site too. Keep it up.

by wils0646 on May 13, 2008 3:35 PM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

*are

brainfart

by wils0646 on May 13, 2008 3:37 PM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

Generalize?

Perhaps. . .but judging from the e-mails I get from Packer fans, it’s also a very accurate assessment. They expect to have their asses kissed simply because they’re fans of the great and mighty Green Bay Packers. Sorry. . .doesn’t wash with me.

As far as my assessment of Captain Overrated, if you don’t like it. . .well, nobody’s begging you to hang out.

There IS a Packer site on this network. You could probably feel free to worship Brett Almighty and crap on Minnesota over there.

The Daily Norseman - The greatest Vikings' site on the Internet!

by Gonzo on May 14, 2008 6:40 PM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

An informative post, but...

...the “myth” of Allen’s lack of sacks late in games isn’t just a one-year wonder. It’s really a comment on his entire career. And even narrowing it down to “sacks in the fourth quarter” isn’t really identifying the problem.

Not that it’s fair, but any good defensive player in KC is going to get compared to Derrick Thomas. That’s just how it is. And when the Chiefs needed a play late in a game, Thomas went out and made it for them.

With Allen, you can count on one hand the number of late game-changing plays he’s made in his career, and you’d still have fingers left over. It’s just a fact. And the games he make those few plays in weren’t really crucial ones. He just tends to disappear.

And even with this analysis, you’re breaking down his contract year. How about 2006, when Allen got outperformed by Tamba Hali, a rookie? Prior to Hali coming aboard, one could have made the case that all the defense had to do was focus on Allen when it mattered, and so his lack of big plays could be justified. But that hasn’t been true for two seasons.

Honestly, I bet this issue has just as much to do with the Chiefs taking a hardline stance with him than his off-field stuff. When a guy wants the kind of money Allen got, and has serious off-field issues to boot, I’m sure the team would like to see him justify it by making the big plays in crunch time.

And Allen just hasn’t done it thus far in his career.

by SlipperyPete on May 11, 2008 3:09 PM CDT reply reply 0 recs

Well, in that light

Anyone’s going to look bad if you compare them to one of the all-time greats, which is what Thomas was. Hell, if I spent all my time comparing every quarterback in Vikings’ history to Fran Tarkenton, I would have spent the last 25 years being really, really disappointed.

But Allen is 26 years old, and just hitting what should be the prime years of his career. At last check, opposing offensive lines can’t double-team Allen AND Kevin Williams AND Pat Williams all at the same time, not to mention whoever wins the other defensive end spot for the Vikings. Shoot, Allen might not even have the same number of sacks in 2008 that he had in 2007. . .but his presence should allow Kevin Williams to get more pressure, whoever is at the other DE spot (whether it’s Robison or Edwards or whoever) to get more pressure, and even Pat Williams to get more pressure, and Pat really isn’t known as a pass-rush guy.

I think that Allen will start making the plays. . .and even if he doesn’t make ALL the late-game plays, he’ll free things up for other players to make them. With all due respect to the Chiefs, the Vikings have more players that can take advantage of those opportunities than Kansas City does.

Just my opinion. . .obviously, I’m biased, but I don’t think I’m alone in my thinking.

The Daily Norseman - The greatest Vikings' site on the Internet!

by Gonzo on May 11, 2008 4:15 PM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

The Thomas comparision

Don’t blow up what I said about Derrick Thomas, I was just making an example. Instead of saying he’s not Thomas, just look at the fact that Allen wanted to be paid like the best defensive player in football. Has he really been the type of game-changing player to warrant that kind of money?

You focused this post on justifying Allen’s lack of 4th quarter sacks. Take it a step farther, though: of his 15 1/2 sacks, how many did Allen get in the entire second half? Three. Two came in one game against Detroit, one of which was Allen’s only 4th quarter sack of the season. Another came in the 3rd quarter against the Raiders.

That’s 12 1/2 sacks first half sacks, 3 second half sacks. A pretty big discrepancy. But you’re here writing off the whole idea that Allen disappears late in games as a “myth”. Sadly, it’s not.

You’re right, though, maybe it’ll change in Minnesota. But… maybe it won’t. Before the Chiefs drafted Tamba Hali, their starting end opposite Allen was Eric Hicks, who was a few years north of 30 and utterly useless in his final years. Adding Hali and giving defenses another pass rusher to worry about didn’t make Allen any better late in games.

I’d write up how DT Alfonso Boone, who the Chiefs signed as a FA from the Bears last year and who lined up next to Allen, was an under-the-rader steal and made a signficant difference on their defensive line. But you’ll probably think I’m trying to overplay him or something, so I’ll just sum up by making the general statement that Boone’s play at DT was far above that of anyone else who lined up next to Allen during his career in KC. But it still didn’t make him any better late in games.

It’s a gamble.

by SlipperyPete on May 11, 2008 9:00 PM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

Hopefully The End

I am sorry to be a party pooper, but….

At the end of the season, it will be as it will be. We can puff out our chests and brag, or we can hide and hope no one remembers what we said at the beginning of the year.

All I can say is “GO VIKES”

Lets have fun.

YEEEEHAWWWW

Ya Sure You Bettcha

by The Bears are Ditkaless on May 12, 2008 11:12 PM CDT reply reply 0 recs