Schmuck Expects "Real Ravens" to Show Up Against Vikings on Sunday
And it's not just some schmuck. . .it's Peter Schmuck, Ravens' beat writer for the Baltimore Sun. To put it mildly, the guy doesn't seem to be terribly impressed by the Beloved Purple at this point in time.
It's tempting to lump together the Patriots loss with the Bengals fiasco and wonder whether the Ravens are headed for an extended swoon, especially with the 5-0 Minnesota Vikings waiting at the Metrodome on Sunday and the surprising Denver Broncos headed here after the bye week.
But you might be better served to look behind the Brett Favre hype and the win-loss records. Maybe you would do well to remember that the Ravens have played very well on the road during the John Harbaugh era and compare favorably with the Vikings and Broncos....
It comes down to whether it's the standings or the stat sheet that is lying, because the Ravens rank fifth in total offense and the Vikings rank 19th. The Ravens (10th) also rank ahead of the Vikings (14th) in total defense. Favre and the Vikings have done a slightly better job at putting points on the board, but it's fair to point out that they have not played against a defense ranked among the top 15 in the league.
Fair points, because that is exactly what the statistics say at this point. However, if we look at things a little more deeply, there are a couple of flaws to be seen in Mr. Schmuck's logic.
Yes, 'tis true that the Vikings are "only" 14th in the league in total defense through their first five contests of the year. And the Ravens' rush defense is even better at this point in the season than Minnesota's vaunted rush defense. . .statistically. However, the Ravens' pass defense is currently rated 26th in the NFL through the first five games of the year, and they give up a whopping eight yards per pass attempt, a figure that puts them side-by-side with such defensive juggernauts as Kansas City, Detroit, St. Louis, and Tampa Bay. To put it mildly, it's not Samari Rolle and Chris McAlister shutting receivers down any more for that secondary. . .and with the Ravens' pass rush looking a bit inconsistent, this isn't the Ravens' defense we're accustomed to seeing.
Another thing that works against Schmuck's reasoning, as well as the Vikings statistical standing, is the fact that in three of Minnesota's first five games, the Vikings have ended with both their second-string offense and second-string defense on the field. Against Cleveland, Brady Quinn was able to lead a 9-play, 80-yard drive against Minnesota's backups at the end of the fourth quarter. . .all of it through the air. . .to get the Browns a garbage-time touchdown. Last week, again against Minnesota's backups, Marc Bulger came off the bench and took the Rams 80 yards in six plays (assisted by a couple of Viking penalties) to give the Rams a touchdown in garbage time as well. The Vikings' starting defense, as I'm sure we're all aware, has been doing just fine.
Another stat that Mr. Schmuck left out. . .Minnesota has the best turnover ratio in the NFL at this point in the season, sitting at +8 (12 takeaways to only 4 giveaways). They're also one of the best defenses in the league on third downs, just like they were last season. (In the interest of fairness, the Ravens are right behind the Vikings in third-down conversion percentage allowed.) Schmuck also opines that the law of averages will eventually catch up with Favre and his low number of interceptions thus far in 2009. That may or may not be the case, granted. . .but with Baltimore's struggling secondary and a group of receivers in Sidney Rice, Bernard Berrian, and Percy Harvin that's starting to hit their stride with #4, I would be surprised if this week was the week that occurred.
This week's matchup is going to be an interesting one for sure, but. . .and this might sound arrogant. . .I'm not quite as scared of the Ravens now as I was when the schedules first came out and I saw that we had to play this team and the Steelers in back-to-back weeks. The Ravens are a physical team that's well-coached, but I think they may be getting the Vikings at the wrong time. But, that's why they play the games, isn't it?
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Comments
Yup, that's why they play
Good post, Gonzo, as always. It’s all kind of laughable, this predictive bit, isn’t it? I’ve been a fan of the Vikings since forever (1966), and I’ve come to this position: it’s impossible to predict wins and losses for the purple. I just wait and watch and hope. However, this season I have to say that my hope tends to be more and more as we approach games. It’s the first time in years that we’ve played bad teams and actually whupped them – your stats on “garbage time” are part of the proof of that. There’s nothing more encouraging than that for this season. We’ve always played up to the good teams (OK, not 41-0, but almost always). It’s the 3-12 Cardinals-type games that used to kill us. In my mind, the Favre acquisition has paid for itself just in imbuing that kind of “put them away” mentality.
by JJ the DFB on Oct 16, 2009 8:47 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
At least we can both say that
a team in purple will lose Sunday. I agree that those stats Schmuck is quoting mean nothing once the guys get onto the field. However, it will be a real tough game for both teams Sunday, not just a 5-0 team against one that lost its past two games.
aka 'Rexx'
by Bruce Raffel on Oct 16, 2009 9:04 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s two tough teams against each other, that is for sure.
The Ravens and the Steelers are the two teams I am most worried about in the first half of our schedule.
by Bjorno on Oct 16, 2009 10:14 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't forget...
That the game will be in the Metrodome, one of the loudest stadiums in the country, and a HUGE home field advantage. If we played in B-more, you might give the edge to the Blackbirds…
by Medcity on Oct 16, 2009 9:32 AM CDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs
Doubtful we'd be favored in Baltimore
as if Cincy can do what they did, we’re real scared of Peterson and Favre in comparison, much less the inside guys of yours. Oh yeah, the skill position and defensive backfield guys, which is pretty much everyone on your team!
aka 'Rexx'
by Bruce Raffel on Oct 16, 2009 11:48 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bring on th Ravens
Hey this is what we are looking for. Ravens & Steelers back to back. You would have to have beaten both these teams to get to the Superbowl last year. Consider it a challenge. Are we an Elite team or not? We aren’t getting any love beating the Lions & Browns & Rams Oh my. Lets rattle their young QB’s cage. Lets give him a nice Thunder Dome welcome.
by iowaron on Oct 16, 2009 9:43 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Not so much...
They’re both AFC teams, so we would have not seen either team until the Superbowl… I agree, welcome to the Thunder Dome.
by ctowner35 on Oct 16, 2009 11:39 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
But then again,
beat both of us and you can say you took on the best and the wins against the lessor teams no longer matter as the wins against us legitimize your team as among the top 2 or 3 in the league.
aka 'Rexx'
by Bruce Raffel on Oct 16, 2009 11:49 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you shut down Derrick Mason, they really don’t have much of a passing game. Now call me crazy, but we’ve done a pretty good job of shutting down #1 Wideouts so far this season. Edwards didn’t do much against us, neither did Jennings or Calvin Johnson. I’d say those guys are about the same level if not a bit better than Mason.
But I’m still mildly afraid of this team. Not because of the defense, I feel we can pass at will against these guys, but because of the, yes I’m going to say it, running game. They’re not going to run it up the middle, obviously, but for some reason we are just getting gashed on outside runs so far this year. I don’t know what it is. Hopefully Frazier has the defense prepped and ready to fire on all cylinders.
Also, I’m expecting this game to be a bit of a shoot out. That’s how it always seems to go when we think it’s going to be a defensive battle. See the Bears-Vikes games the last couple years for examples.
by Frost on Oct 16, 2009 9:54 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Agree with your point of getting “gashed” on the outside runs for some reason against some less than stellar RBs. If we can’t stop their running game, we may be in trouble. Not sure how successful AD will be against their the defense, so it comes down to Favre’s ability to hit the crossing and deep routes, maybe some play actions.
"Speak softly and carry a big stick; you will go far." Theodore Roosevelt
by DaRange on Oct 16, 2009 11:06 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And stay off his back
you can’t hit the crossing route from the turf
by bleedingpurplesince74 on Oct 16, 2009 11:07 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was looking through NFL video highlights
for the Vikes and Ravens and one of them had a series of him getting pounded by different teams this year. Oof.
by Salty on Oct 16, 2009 11:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
We probably wouldn't win a shootout
As our QB is probably more prone to mistakes than you, on the road in a loud dome. We’re going to have to hope for the big play on both sides of the ball to give us a lead and hang on. Otherwise, this would be a big “ouch” this week.
aka 'Rexx'
by Bruce Raffel on Oct 16, 2009 11:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
At least for me
Flacco is kind of a mystery. Being in a region that has NFC teams, you don’t see many Ravens games. He’s putting up some good numbers. I hear some of the talking heads giving him the love.
by Salty on Oct 17, 2009 9:36 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's the real deal
but still makes those silly “sophomore” mistakes, especially the last two games where he threw dumb Red Zone interceptions that could have possibly given us both as wins. Hopefully, not Sunday!
aka 'Rexx'
by Bruce Raffel on Oct 17, 2009 10:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think you might be the classiest opposing fan I’ve ever seen post in these comments around this site. Good luck to your team and may the best team win and NO injuries. :D
Now, can you go teach a class on how to post in opposing teams’ forums for Packer fans? ;)
by Wytefang on Oct 17, 2009 5:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You know what they say...
…. the biggest liar in the world is statistics.
Great post, Gonzo, pointing out the ‘garbage time’ points/yards given up against our 2nd string.
It won’t be an easy game, but it should be a battle.
GO VIKES!!!!
by JasonAve6413 on Oct 16, 2009 11:28 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I wish they could account for garbage time in statistics
It’s so misleading otherwise…
by mjmrad on Oct 17, 2009 9:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
it all comes down to who imposes the others will
who will dominate the trenches will win the game plain and simple.and if we want to be taken serious as a superbowl contender win bit if we lose great thing there is always next week to redeem yourself.
by clinton p on Oct 16, 2009 11:31 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
+1
As I always say, whoever wins the trenches wins the game. Both teams are solid inside, but I think you actually have the advantages on both sides.
aka 'Rexx'
by Bruce Raffel on Oct 16, 2009 11:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If the Giants win tomorrow
then we can always beat them the last week of the season to earn back our #1 seed
by mjmrad on Oct 17, 2009 9:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
shutdown #1 WR
Agreed that Minnesota takes away the best receiver, but that’s why teams’ TEs are having so much success. I suspect Heap would be a nice plug-and-play fantasy TE this week.
by peterplaysbass on Oct 16, 2009 11:58 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Stats
Stats are for losers and it’s a “but” word… “We lost BUT our stats show…” Ask the Viking teams from the 80s and 90s what stats are good for.
by Heech on Oct 16, 2009 12:23 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
No offense, but
that was a pretty stupid comment.
“Stats are for losers” Really?
by peterplaysbass on Oct 16, 2009 2:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with Heech
Stats usually mislead, because they don’t account for every contingency…
by mjmrad on Oct 17, 2009 9:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great News!
I’m glad that Schmuck is sending the real Ravens. I always hate it when the Vikings win and people say later that they didn’t send their real team.
Thanks, you Schmuck! Now I can sit back Sunday morning and enjoy watching the Vikings stomp the real Ravens.
I’m just hoping that other cities will pick up on this trend so we get to play the real Steelers and the real Packers. I always hate watching if we’re just stomping these fake teams.
by Elgar on Oct 16, 2009 12:41 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
manipulating stats
schmuck chose to point out Ravens are ranked higher in D. Okay, in what category? Yards allowed is what he chose. Cover 2 is a bend but don’t break scheme that gets extremely tough in the red zone. Who cares about yards. What schmuckly failed to point out was the only D stat that really matters, points allowed. Guess who’s better? Yep, the Vikings. They rank just ahead of Patriots and Bengals. HEY, wait a second. Aren’t those the two teams that just beat the Ravens. Forgot to mention that didn’t you schmuckly?
Same goes for offense. So Ravens rank ahead of Vikings O in total yards. WOOHOO< crown them champs right not. Actually , again, the Vikings are ahead in the only O category that really matters, points per game.
Finally he had an outright lie in saying Vikings haven’t played a top D. In that all important point allowed category, SF is at 19.6 points just behind Ravens 19.4 points. At the time Vikings played SF thet had a 13 pts/game avg. If SF is not top D then neither is the Ravens. LMFAO
by Stubby83 on Oct 16, 2009 1:09 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Thank you!!
Very well stated and researched!
by seehawk on Oct 16, 2009 2:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
the only stats that matter...
the points on the board.
I BELIEVE...
by ArizonaVikingsFan on Oct 16, 2009 3:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Schmuck?
This guy’s name is really Schmuck? Well, I guess the guy really is a Schmuck.
Schmuck. (1) That portion of one’s penis which is cut off during circumcision,a Yiddish term (an accent of the german language used by jewish people)
www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=schmuck
"What is best in life?"
"To crush your enemies, to see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentations of their women."
by cryhavoc on Oct 16, 2009 11:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, they said the same thing about my Ravens
After we went 3-0 to start the season, they lkept saying we hadn’t played anyone decent but we still won the games we were scheduled to play so what more could we expect to do?
Oh yeah, then we went out and lost the next two games to good teams.
Ooops. We’ve been pretty humble lately.
aka 'Rexx'
by Bruce Raffel on Oct 17, 2009 10:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Vikings stats meaningless so far
The Vikings haven’t played enough quality teams for stats to matter. Our offensive yards are low because these crap teams give us short fields and fall behind so early we quit taking any risks in the 4th quarter. Defensive yards given up are equally meaningless because most of the second half of Vikings games have come down to just keeping them out of the end zone and protecting against the big play.
Points per game are just as important as yards per game. I’d even argue that they are more important. In those catergories the Vikes rank ahead of the Ravens. Again though they’ve played in so many lopsided second half scores that the stats stop meaning anything.
Chew on this. The Vikings defense has given up under 11 points per game during the competitve portions of the 5 games. Don’t count special teams are opposing defensive TDs or “garbage time” and our defense has been plenty stingy.
We’ll see what both teams are made of on Sunday. If the Bengals can beat them there then I don’t see any reason we can’t beat them here.
by Sand0 on Oct 16, 2009 1:14 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
God Job Gonzo
The stats are meaningless only because we have played only 5 games. If I flip a coin once and it comes up heads you wouldn’t say it will be heads 100% of the time. Stats are probably more meaningful 8 games into the season.I like yo at least have played everyone in the division once.
I’m also concerned about our defense on the edge of the line. But if I had to play against Jared I would wait for him to rush and then get the ball to the spot he vacated. I just Hope Jared gets to Flacco first.
Go Vikes.
by lifelongvike on Oct 16, 2009 1:46 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Edge defense will be tested by Ray Rice.
by Salty on Oct 17, 2009 9:39 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Baltimore and Pitt have not played yet...
That’s an ugly game waiting to happen…
(We haven’t played da Bears yet either)
by mjmrad on Oct 17, 2009 9:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
My take on this weeks game and the Vikings team in general.
I would like anyone to debate me on this analogy. The Vikings defense with the roster line up and scheme they present are one of the better defenses in the league. Regardless who we have played and statistics, the Vikings have one of the top rated defenses. With that said and the “gelling” of our new (yet older) quarterback and his weapons, please correct me if I am wrong, but the Minnesota Vikings could legitimately beat any team in the NFL. The defense is not going to have some sort of complete melt down that has the opposing teams running up some astronomical score which will force them to turn into a one dimensional throwing machine. So with that said, they can, for the most part, stick to the game plan they were planning all week long. Watching film and playing on the weakness of the opposing team. They have been able to do this in the first 5 weeks and have won when they should because of their “plan” and the defense allowing them to stay within their game. I think that is the most important thing that is different from this year to past years. Good defense and complete balance on offense. Please post any comments even if some may find my thoughts way out there.
by seehawk on Oct 16, 2009 2:09 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Your take is dead on, even from a Ravens fan
The Vikes are as good as any team, but home field advantage might make it tough depending on whom you play. What I mean is that I like NO over the Giants this week, but would take NY if the game was in Jersey. I’d take the Vikes over both those teams at the ’dome, but take the others in their cribs.
Any way you look at it, you are among the top few teams in the league. But as much as stats don’t matter that much, the first 5 or 6 games don’t make the season. Be careful, but your team is looking solid.
aka 'Rexx'
by Bruce Raffel on Oct 17, 2009 10:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The stats are definitely meaningless
Any stats that make the Vikings look like a great offense or a stingy balanced defense are absolutely meaningless.
Other relevant facts which put others in perspective:
- The Browns, 49ers and Rams are among the 10 worst in 3rd down % and the Packers are mediocre in that regard.
- The Rams and Packers are among the 10 worst in time of possession.
- The Browns, Lions and Rams are among the 10 worst in turnovers.
- The Browns, Lions, Rams (and Ravens) are among the 10 most penalized teams.
Maybe that last one is good news, but all this post is really saying is that the Vikings STILL will not have played a great team after this Sunday, regardless.
by KC Viking on Oct 16, 2009 2:12 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Too funny!
Yeah because there are only really maybe 3-4 great teams in the league this year and the Vikings can’t play themselves!!
by seehawk on Oct 16, 2009 2:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
I will be more excited about the Vikings after they stop facing more of the very worst teams than there are great teams by your estimation. This was a playoff team last year, so why so many freebies? The schedule should be tough.
Don’t forget about Childress’s ability to fade down the stretch. In his first year, 2006, the Vikes were 4-2 and won only 2 of the last 10 games!
by KC Viking on Oct 16, 2009 7:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, but in his second year they were 3-5 and managed to scrape out to 8-8 while getting neck deep in the playoff hunt. The following season they started 1-3 and managed to grind their way to a 10-6 record. So… I’m no so worried about fading down the stretch.
by Frost on Oct 16, 2009 10:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's probably the schedule anyway
…but who knows. If it is the schedule, then the Vikings really could fade mightily down the stretch.
by KC Viking on Oct 17, 2009 2:02 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just Another Tidbit of Trivia On the Game
From what I’ve read, since the inception of the Ravens in 1996, the game against the Vikings will be only their 11th indoor game. And the Ravens are 2-8 indoors. Could the noise factor play any significance?
by Purple And Gold Forever on Oct 16, 2009 2:42 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Well, not much to be upset about in these comments for me
I’ve been posting all week that I think the Ravens are better than a lot of people rank them right now, and that, in the next 3 game stetch, while I’m hoping to win two, I would not be suprised to win only one (and it could be any of them that are won or lost, none of them will have us as clear favorites IMO). So yes, I think the matchup is a lot more even than the 2-3 vs 5-0 record implies. The main reason I think we may have any edge is because it’s a home game, not becuase we’re the clearly better team.
by puddnhead on Oct 16, 2009 3:48 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Funny thing about Schmuck,
is that most Baltimore sportswriters (whom I pretty much think are worthless), always pick against the Ravens in close games, which I rarely see in other cities papers. If Schmuck thinks the Ravens will win Sunday (in the paper, he picks the Ravens 24-21), then I’m actually impressed with his opinions.
I was pleasantly surprised to see four of seven Ravens beat writers taking Baltimore. Wow.
aka 'Rexx'
by Bruce Raffel on Oct 17, 2009 10:26 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
In the box, or drop back?
I have to admit, when the schedules came out I wasn’t too worried about the NFC north teams the Ravens had to face this season. We all knew that the Vikings had a really good defense, and Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor in the backfield on the other side of the ball. With the Ravens having one of the best run stuffing defenses in the NFL — no worries, right? But now? Sheesh.. Berian, Harvin, Rice, Favre. Do they stuff 7 or 8 in the box, or keep the DBs back and defend the pass? A little nervous going into this one.. The Ravens have the toughest part of an overall difficult schedule coming up, and they need a big win today. It’s going to be a great game!
by richCrist on Oct 18, 2009 11:03 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

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