Power rankings
After a nail-biting last-second win vs. the 49ers (.500 over their past 20 games) and a 1-TD win vs. the Packers (losing record over their last 20 games), the Vikings are 5th (and probably will be no higher until they beat somebody good). This time I sorted by W% and then by point differential in a spreadsheet...
# by w% and point differential; ( ) by w% and points scored, if different; [ ] by w% and fewest points allowed, if different than original ranking:
1. Saints [4]
2. Broncos (5) [1]
3. Colts (4) [2]
4. Giants (3) [3]
5. Vikings (2)
6. 49ers (8)
7. Ravens (6) [11]
8. Bears (7) [10]
9. Jets (11) [7]
10. Patriots (9) [8]
11. Bengals (10) [9]
12. Eagles [13]
13. Falcons [12]
14. Cowboys (17) [15]
15. Packers (14) [19]
16. Jaguars [17]
Underrated by this ranking system: PIT [16th by W% and PA], SD (15th by W% and PF) and WAS [14th by W% and PA] could replace JAX and GB and perhaps someone else.
Super sleepers: ARI (top 10 in fewest points allowed, and that offense will heat up again), MIA (finally won this week, only losing team with a positive point differential) , SEA (Hasselbeck to Houshmandzadeh should become more common as the season wears on). At least 2 of these teams could play significantly better than they have been.
Bottom line? The Jacksonville Jaguars are absolutely mediocre.
This FanPost was created by a registered user of The Daily Norseman, and does not necessarily reflect the views of the staff of the site. However, since this is a community, that view is no less important.
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41 comments
Comments
ESPN.com has the Vikings 3!
As The Play Snaps, One Dream, One Team, One Head Coach will be on top! Will It Be The Vikings?
by UnBannedVikingholic on Oct 6, 2009 3:55 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
It always cracks me up
that every fan will say, “NFL Power Rankings don’t mean crap!!” yet College Football bases who plays for the National Championship by it. God, the NCAA has it ALL wrong.
Anyway, yeah, the ESPN PR don’t really mean anything… but who cares!! The Vikings are #3 and THAT is fun to talk about!!
If you can't laugh at yourself... Who can you laugh at?
The Packers, that’s who.
-- The almighty Manimal
by TheViking83 on Oct 6, 2009 4:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
SEA (Hasselbeck to Houshmandzadeh should become more common as the season wears on).
Only if Hasselbeck can get and stay healthy for a decent amount of time. I’m skeptical about that.
Underrated by this ranking system: PIT [16th by W% and PA], SD (15th by W% and PF) and WAS [14th by W% and PA]
Redskins = Underrated = Does not compute.
The Redskins BARELY squeaked by a winless St. Louis team, lost to the Lions and BARELY squeaked by a winless Tampa Bay team.
The Redskins would have to prove a lot to me in the next couple of weeks to think that they are “underrated” by any ranking system. In fact, right now, discussing them outside of the bottom of the barrell teams is overrating them, if you ask me.
Anyway, nice post as I have a warm spot in my heart for statistical breakdown. Interesting idea to create power rankings based on WP, PF & PA.
If you can't laugh at yourself... Who can you laugh at?
The Packers, that’s who.
-- The almighty Manimal
by TheViking83 on Oct 6, 2009 4:22 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
WAS
Yeah, they’ve lost to the Lions, but somebody was going to get hit with that unlucky stick someday. I agree that the StL game wasn’t impressive, either. I still think that TB’s D is for real despite the lower quality coaching and offense. What’s not showing up in WAS’s results is a level of talent which should be able to improve. The question is whether it will happen soon enough to matter.
Those who believe that defense wins championships should consider WAS at least a little bit underrated for now until some team shreds them.
I appreciate the kind words. Had I also used opp records, perhaps WAS would not seem as underrated as someone more deserving. I’ll try that next week if I have time.
by KC Viking on Oct 6, 2009 4:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Washington...
beat Tampa by 3. Tampa missed 2 very routine FG (no pressure, just missed), and Nugent NO LONGER in Tampa.
Regards,
I don't suffer from insanity...I relish every moment of it!
by the Dragon on Oct 8, 2009 9:37 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tampa's defense
could be their strong point, all things considered.
Many have whined about the Vikings’ lack of respect for playing CLE and DET, and those are the 2 worst defenses in the league so far. The Rams also rank below TB, so that will be 3 easier games than one vs. TB. The Titans, Bills, and Chargers all had decent or better defenses last year, but they rank behind TB defensively right now. In fact, the Chargers are 2-2 with a defense only 5 points better than TB’s, mainly because they have a real offense most of the time. The TB D wouldn’t be so overworked if that team could simply score some points and take some time off the clock while they were at lt.
Look, TB is a bad team, no doubt. But they are also at least 1/2 of a mediocre team now after being a winner last year. Several teams (DET, CLE, STL…) can’t say the same.
by KC Viking on Oct 8, 2009 2:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Forget Houshmanzadeh, hope we demolish the Seahawks!
And Tj, you must haven’t noticed who could’ve been throwing the ball to you. But no! Well F you now buddy! Sidney Is stepping up, and Percy Is a very good Speedster who can catch. Benard is actually getting better with his chemistry with Favre, so Tj, You are the weakest link goodbye!

As The Play Snaps, One Dream, One Team, One Head Coach will be on top! Will It Be The Vikings?
by UnBannedVikingholic on Oct 6, 2009 4:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wrong TJ
WR TJ knew EXACTLY who may have been responsible for throwing him the ball (TJ the QB). When Housh arrived in MN, he was led to a conference room to meet…Tarvaris Jackson…to tell him how great it was to be a Viking (and make up Housh’s mind for him that instant).
In SEA, Housh probably thought that he was getting the next Favre, but younger, and for more $.
by KC Viking on Oct 6, 2009 5:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually It Seemed To Me
He chose money over winning!
As The Play Snaps, One Dream, One Team, One Head Coach will be on top! Will It Be The Vikings?
by UnBannedVikingholic on Oct 6, 2009 5:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He just took the money
Case closed.
http://vikingsmashfootball.wordpress.com/
by BeardedAxe on Oct 6, 2009 5:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know what you mean
but considering that he’d left the Bengals for the Seahawks, he may win more often there than he did in the ‘nati…but not as much as he may have had he stayed in the ’nati…which means that he may be in SEA long enough to be part of a winner there, too. He can count on the $, but not on which team will win, even if it’s supposed to.
by KC Viking on Oct 6, 2009 6:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dude, I thought that rumor was dispelled a long time ago.
TJ only spoke to TJ over the phone, a minute conversation at most. They never met in person.
Housh made his decision based on money, if it was based on talent he wouldn’t be a Seahawk.
by Bjorno on Oct 7, 2009 1:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Whether it was being the face of the franchise in person or the voice of the franchise over the phone, that had to have sent a poor message to Housh. I know I would have chosen Seattle, even if I knew that Seneca Wallace would be my QB, over Tarvaris Jackson.
by KC Viking on Oct 7, 2009 1:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bottom line...
You would be going for the MONEY.
Regards,
I don't suffer from insanity...I relish every moment of it!
by the Dragon on Oct 8, 2009 9:39 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not just for the money
A better team, better place to live, and a real QB, too.
Tony Gonzalez made $5.032M in 2008 with the Chiefs, and now earns only $1.5M with the winning Falcons. So it’s not always about the money at all. Seattle had also won more games in 3 out of the 4 years prior to his signing (including a trip to the SB), and most of Seattle’s 2008 could be attributed to suffering through what may have been the most injuries on an NFL team ever (or something very close to it).
I would take all of those things into consideration, for the record.
by KC Viking on Oct 8, 2009 2:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
1. Vikings
2. Colts
3. Saints
4. Giants
5. Steelers
by REVENGE4FAVRE on Oct 6, 2009 9:08 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Did anyone see where Fox has the Vikings?
No respect.
http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/powerRankings
However, it is Fox. I have less respect for them then they have for the Vikings, so it all works out.
‘And the wild things roared their terrible roars and gnashed their terrible teeth and rolled their terrible eyes and showed their terrible claws’.
by SippyCup on Oct 7, 2009 2:27 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
F em
They have us behind 2-1 and 3-1 teams what a crock.. The Eagles? Are you crapping me?
by Grime on Oct 7, 2009 4:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Aside from the NO-PHI game, the Eagles have been tough, and I expect that they will only get tougher when McNabb returns.
by KC Viking on Oct 7, 2009 4:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Perhaps
But I find it hard to get so worked up about this.
The acid test of “respect” in this context is the odds set by Vegas. We’ll see who the favorite is in the Ravens @ Vikes game and the Vikes @ Steelers game.
Vegas is cold and objective — it needs to equalize the betting so the house wins, so you are getting an objective poll of the entire (betting) country, not just some sportswriter trying pay rent and buy clothes.
TiggerSr
by TiggerSr on Oct 7, 2009 7:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Vegas odds...
have NOTHING to do with relative quality of Side A vs. Side B.
Vegas odds have ONLY ONE PRIORITY…get 50% of the money on each side. That’s why the line moves. When more money goes to one side, the line gets adjusted to attract money to the other side.
Vegas makes 10% on losing bets. Vegas are in the gambling business, and they ARE NOT gamblers.
Regards,
I don't suffer from insanity...I relish every moment of it!
by the Dragon on Oct 8, 2009 9:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
The odds reflect the collective impression of the ENTIRE country (of betters, not of all fans, but betters are putting their $ where their mouth is, so it is a good filter to ascertain a person’s true impressions).
The Vegas odds give you a GENUINE and ACCURATE measure of how the rest of the country views the relative strength of your team — much more so than what a particular sportswriter says in a weekly column to generate interest and entertain us.
TiggerSr
by TiggerSr on Oct 8, 2009 10:00 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Being more precise
Perhaps I was not as clear as I should have been. Each individual bet reflects a gambler’s judgment as to the relative strength of a team (putting aside those fools who bet their money on teams they “want” to cheer for). “I think the Rams are strong enough to get within 9 points of the vikes at St. Louis, so I am going to put $300 down on the Rams.” Boom, pow — there you have it, a power ranking of sorts by that particular gambler.
The Vegas odds are set to arrive at an equilibrium — the midpoint so to speak — among ALL the people in the world who place bets in Vegas on the outcome of a particular matchup. Thus, the Vegas odds tell us that the “collective judgment” of everyone in the world who is willing to put their money where their mouth is is that the Vikes are 9 points more powerful than the Rams when playing at St. Louis.
When the Vikes play the Ravens at the Metrodome, the Vegas odds will tell us what the collective judgment of the gambling world is at that time as to the relative “power” of those two teams.
My argument is that the “power ranking” reflected by Vegas odds is much more illuminating for 2 reasons: a) it is the product of a HUGE sample size, not just one sportwswriter at a keyboard; and b) it reflects cold, objective and GENUINE assessments of each better, and is not tainted by whatver other agenda a particular sportswriter may have (eg, “I have to say something different than what that guy over at ESPN wrote in his power ranking coilumn” or “I have to say something controversial so people will read my column so I can keep my job and pay my rent” etc.).
Of course, it is more fun to argue over whatever a talking head says on the TV or in a weekly column. You can’t argue with Vegas odds — there is no one to direct your venom at.
TiggerSr
by TiggerSr on Oct 8, 2009 10:13 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
sort of...
First, I invest in sports 365 day’s each year.
To some extent, I would agree that Vegas odds “MIGHT” be a better reflection than a single sportswriter, EXCEPT, the Vegas odds, in addition to attempting to balance the books, also include at least 2 completely components. AND, it would be similar to saying the Dow Jones Industrial Average is the best indicator of curent economic circumstances.
First, is the fans. This is reflected by thousands or millions of bettors with stakes as little as $1, up to $1,000’s. This is know as “Public” money. I would guess that the breakdown of where this money goes is similar to the larger universe of fans. Second, is the so called “smart” money. In $ volumn, they probably equal, maybe exceed, the “Public” money, but in number’s of actual bettors/individuals the number is quite small.
One characteristic of “Smart” money is that these individuals are not Gambler’s, at least in the classical sense. They are more akin to Stock/commodity investors. They are looking for advantage, and poised to take small gains, and play anomolies in the market.
You also have to discount the odds on National Teams, OR Teams in large metropolitan area, because there is a % factor in those odds to offset this money. Say Dallas, NY Giants, New England.
Lastly, the “Public” tends to go strongly to Favorites.
Regards,
ps: We are in much more agreement conceptually, Vegas odds are probably a better guide than a sportswriters Power Ranking, YET both of us have spent more time than value of either warrants. ;-)
I don't suffer from insanity...I relish every moment of it!
by the Dragon on Oct 8, 2009 11:49 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agree
If you have read any of my other posts on this topic, you will see that I repeatedly (obnoxiously) argue that people should not pay any attention to power rankings because I think they mean nothing — it’s like arguing about whose baby is cuter, yours or mine. It’s just silly.
Investors in the market are gamblers in every sense of the word.
As to “public” money and the bets of “fans” and the bias in big market teams — well, I mentioned thatv in my analysis but I think utlimately it is irrelevant. My point is that the odds reflect the collective judgment of everyone — everyone includes the judgment of fans and idiots.
There is no way to rig a measure to exclude bias and stupidity. (eg, cute baby contest point). Even if you could, which you can’t, paying a sportswriter to create the rankings every week does not minimize the influence of either bias or stupidity. At least with Vegas odds one can make the argument that bias and stupidity tends to come out in the wash in the collectrive results (although i concede there is the problem of certain teams having a larger fan base and thus bias may not wash out in the betting when such teams play a team with a smaller fan base—don’t think you have that particular problem with Vegas odds on the Vikes/Ravens or Vikes/Steelers matchups, though).
TiggerSr
by TiggerSr on Oct 8, 2009 12:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here's a topic for some university study
Do a statiscal analysis over the past 4-5 years or so. Take the Vegas odds for every game — ignore the spreads completely — and determine the right/wrong percentage of the Vegas odds as a prediction of the winner of the game.
Then do the same analysis for each power ranking published by ESPN, Fox, etc. for the same games (higher ranked team at that point is a prediction that it will beat the lower ranked team).
What is your gut? Will the Vegas right/wrong percentage be higher or lower than the same percentage for the power rankings published by ESPN, Fox, etc.????
Maybe we could get Danny Sheridan to do this for us?
TiggerSr
by TiggerSr on Oct 8, 2009 12:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Games vs. Season/series Odds
I think here you get to an interesting difference. Since I see the daily lines as my opponent, I am in admiration of the high percentage (60-65%) that are dead on. Particularly totals (over/under).
I think that the season odds are where the real varriance lies.
I think that it is hard to define “Power Rankings” since I am not sure IF this is a snapshot in time…TODAY. Or, is it who will be best come Super Bowl. The Vegas Line is the odds today to be Top at Super Bowl.
Current line to win NFC:
Saints 3.5-1
Giants 4-1
Vikings 5-1
Eagles 7-1
Current line to win AFC:
New England 3-1
Baltimore 4-1
Indianapolis 4.5-1
Pittsburgh 6-1
Current Line to win Super Bowl:
New England 6.75-1
Giants 7-1
Saints 7.5-1
Indianapolis 8.5-1
Baltimore 10-1
Vikings 10-1
Pittsburgh 10-1
Eagles 14-1
Notice that the Saints are favorites to win the NFC, yet behind the Giants to win the Super Bowl (since both can’t play in the Super Bowl…what gives?). These inconsistancies always/often show up in vegas odds. Similarly, Baltimore lower odds than Indianapolis to win AFC, yet longer odds to win Super Bowl.
Regards,
I don't suffer from insanity...I relish every moment of it!
by the Dragon on Oct 8, 2009 1:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good stuff
So the collective judgment of the (betting) country is that the Vikes are tied for 5th right now in our “power rabkings”.
As to “what gives,” perhaps it is the judgment of many that the Saints are more likely to beat the Giants in the NFC championshp but that the Saints are much less likely to beat the AFC champion in the SB than the Giants are if the Giants get there instead of the Saints. I could see that — Giants may have better shot at beating Pats than the Saints would. Goes to the issue of “matchups” I talked about in an earlier post.
TiggerSr
by TiggerSr on Oct 8, 2009 2:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree?
Tigger Sr.
I completely agree with your analysis as to what it may/must mean.
My comment is more directed to the fact that these odds ARE NOT linear. IF the NFC odds happen, Saints go to the Super Bowl, thus, even a dummie like me knows that the Giants then could not win said Super Bowl.
I guess in summary, Vegas odds can give one some indication of some etherial collective wisdom, BUT it is not worth much than the paper this comment was written on ;-)
Regards,
I don't suffer from insanity...I relish every moment of it!
by the Dragon on Oct 8, 2009 2:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here's my Power Ranking.
1. New Orleans Saints
2. Denver Broncos
3. SanFran 49rs
3. Indianapolis Colts
4. Baltimore Ravens
4. New York Giants
5. Minnesota Vikings
6. Chicago Bears
7. Philidelphia Eagles
7. New York Jets
8. Dallas Cowboys
Calculated by:
PD = Point Differential (PF-PA)
PDR = Point Differential Rank
W= Wins
L= Losses
Comp = Computation ((PDR+W)-L)/3)
Rank = Results sorted by Comp value
I BELIEVE...
by ArizonaVikingsFan on Oct 7, 2009 3:19 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Why so much emphasis on point differential?
Seems like this would be meritorious only if you controlled for quality of competition; or maybe at the end of the season (when you need it least, anyway)
TiggerSr
by TiggerSr on Oct 7, 2009 7:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
PF as an indication of offensive strength.
PA as an indication of defensive strength.
PD demonstrates:
a) strength of competition or,
b) a team having strength on both sides of the ball, regardless of the competition.
I used PD as a quick snapshot Power Ranking earlier in the season.
For this round, I ranked the total PD 11-1, added Wins, subtracted losses, and averaged the total to come to the final ranking. The PD metric sorts out the 4-0’s and the 3-1’s
I BELIEVE...
by ArizonaVikingsFan on Oct 7, 2009 7:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
But
using PD to be the primary determinant of the ranking does not account for strength of competition, which is why Fox and others probably have the Vikes ranked below the Pats and Jets. If I were betting money, I would certainly take strength of competition into account.
TiggerSr
by TiggerSr on Oct 7, 2009 11:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
At least divisionally, strength of competition should wash out, as each team will play the same opponents.
So, while that may not be reflected between divisions or conferences, it does impact the final product.
My rankings are a simple math formula and PD works as a good determinate for teams.
I BELIEVE...
by ArizonaVikingsFan on Oct 8, 2009 12:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
We should be 7 on that list because Baltimore and NYG should be 5.
by Frost on Oct 8, 2009 9:30 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
top 11
Your system has the Vikes ranked 7th, not 5th
1. NO
2. DEN
3. SF
3. IND
5. BAL
5. NYG
7. MIN
8. CHI
9. PHI
9. NYJ
11. DAL
by KC Viking on Oct 7, 2009 4:01 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
actually...
my ranking is based on the formula I posted.
Teams that have the same math result were given the same ranking.
I give no additional merit for where the team started in my data load (PD)
I BELIEVE...
by ArizonaVikingsFan on Oct 7, 2009 4:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
nevermind. I see what you did now. I concede.
I BELIEVE...
by ArizonaVikingsFan on Oct 7, 2009 4:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yours are interesting
I was only clarifying.
by KC Viking on Oct 7, 2009 4:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

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