I was always a believer that highly selected quarterbacks were a crap shoot. The myth that NFL starting quarterbacks are just as likely to be from the 6 th round (Brady), 7th round (Cassell), or 8th round ( Hassellbeck) as the early rounds. I decided test the premise by actually looking at the facts. First a couple of assumptions.
- NFL pays so much more money for QB's these days they are going to put more resources into analyzing them.
- NFL is so QB dependent today they will put more resources into analyzing them.
So I am going to look at the drafts for the last five years. You can choose whatever starting date you want. I simply chose the 2003 draft because it is more recent history. My guess is that the same answers would occur no matter what year you started.
HERE ARE THE QB'S SELECTED IN THE FIRST AND SECOND ROUNDS OF THE DRAFTS
2003 ROUND 1
2004 ROUND 1
Ely Manning, Phillip Rivers, Ben Rothlisberger, J.P. Lousman---- No Second Round Selections
2005 ROUND 1
2006 ROUND 1
Kellen Clemson, Travaris Jackson
2007 ROUND 1
Jamarcus Russell, Brady Quinn
2008 ROUND 1
Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco
Bryan Brohm, Chadd Henne
2009 ROUND 1
Matt Stafford, Mark Sanchez,
So, what does this mean for the Vikings? First do your research. Listen to what the scouting services are really saying. Your not likely to get a Franchise QB unless you use a first round pick.
23 FIRST ROUND PICKS. 14 FRANCHISE QB'S ( 60% SUCCESS) - 6 UNPROVEN, 3 BUSTS
7 SECOND ROUND PICKS 2 FRANCHISE QB'S ( 28% SUCCESS)- 1 BUST- 4 UNPROVEN
Second, Please do not stretch and make a guy a first rounder because the press thinks he's great. ( Jamarcus). Third, keep doing what your doing. I thought you were off track in bringing in Farve. You obviously know more as to what your football team needs than me.
As a final note I leave you with a web link to a quarterback draft list for the last 72 years