FIRST ROUND QUARTERBACKS IN THE DRAFT- ONLY WAY TO GO
I was always a believer that highly selected quarterbacks were a crap shoot. The myth that NFL starting quarterbacks are just as likely to be from the 6 th round (Brady), 7th round (Cassell), or 8th round ( Hassellbeck) as the early rounds. I decided test the premise by actually looking at the facts. First a couple of assumptions.
- NFL pays so much more money for QB's these days they are going to put more resources into analyzing them.
- NFL is so QB dependent today they will put more resources into analyzing them.
So I am going to look at the drafts for the last five years. You can choose whatever starting date you want. I simply chose the 2003 draft because it is more recent history. My guess is that the same answers would occur no matter what year you started.
HERE ARE THE QB'S SELECTED IN THE FIRST AND SECOND ROUNDS OF THE DRAFTS
2003 ROUND 1
Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman----No Second Round Selections
2004 ROUND 1
Ely Manning, Phillip Rivers, Ben Rothlisberger, J.P. Lousman---- No Second Round Selections
2005 ROUND 1
Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers Jason Campbell---- No Secound Round Selections
2006 ROUND 1
Vince Young, Matt Lienhart, Jay Cutler
ROUND 2
Kellen Clemson, Travaris Jackson
2007 ROUND 1
Jamarcus Russell, Brady Quinn
ROUND 2
Kevin Kolb, John Beck, Drew Stanton
2008 ROUND 1
Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco
ROUND 2
Bryan Brohm, Chadd Henne
2009 ROUND 1
Matt Stafford, Mark Sanchez,
ROUND 2
So, what does this mean for the Vikings? First do your research. Listen to what the scouting services are really saying. Your not likely to get a Franchise QB unless you use a first round pick.
23 FIRST ROUND PICKS. 14 FRANCHISE QB'S ( 60% SUCCESS) - 6 UNPROVEN, 3 BUSTS
7 SECOND ROUND PICKS 2 FRANCHISE QB'S ( 28% SUCCESS)- 1 BUST- 4 UNPROVEN
Second, Please do not stretch and make a guy a first rounder because the press thinks he's great. ( Jamarcus). Third, keep doing what your doing. I thought you were off track in bringing in Farve. You obviously know more as to what your football team needs than me.
As a final note I leave you with a web link to a quarterback draft list for the last 72 years
http://www.drafthistory.com/positions/qb.html
This FanPost was created by a registered user of The Daily Norseman, and does not necessarily reflect the views of the staff of the site. However, since this is a community, that view is no less important.
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31 comments
Comments
I agree
This draft is pretty loaded in QB’s too. Watching the college live show, they talked about bradford slipping into the later part of the first round. This pleases me. I wouldn’t mind taking snead from ole miss either. I also like the houston QB.
But for the love of god… no tebow… no.
...add #4 to the mix and see what you get... Championship.
by Macdaddy4508 on Nov 1, 2009 11:16 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Your numbers don't add up.
I count 11 franchise QB’s from 1st round and zero from 2d out of 8 chosen???
TiggerSr
by TiggerSr on Nov 1, 2009 11:29 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Franchise QBs?
Who are you calling a franchise QB? By my count there are only 7 first rounders I would consider a franchise QB, and that’s counting Flacco and Matt Ryan, and as good as they have been it might be a little early to call them a franchise QB—to say nothing of the 2009 picks.
So I would say it’s closer to a 30% success rate myself.
Fire Childress!
by dwarg on Nov 1, 2009 11:34 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Actually...
Make that a 33% success rate. I subtracted the 2009 picks from the total since they haven’t done enough to be graded yet.
Fire Childress!
by dwarg on Nov 1, 2009 11:36 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Multiple options at QB
First, the Vikings should draft the best player available in round 1. The only exception to this would be running back, since we’ve got one.
Second, Tarvaris Jackson is the future of this club. When the Vikings give him a new contract, it will be a great day. I agree with drafting a QB but only for insurance purposes. Rosenfels is a good backup QB. Booty would probably not have worked out, but maybe he returns to Vikings’ training camp next year and out-competes everyone. You never know.
Assuming the Vikings’ first draft pick is in the bottom of the first round, sure, draft a quarterback, if he’s the best player available.
Favre may retire at the end of the season. There will be other free agents allowing the Vikings time to develop another QB for insurance purposes. We might see on the market: Kolb/Vick/McNabb, Kyle Orton (on the last year of his contract), Josh Johnson, Kerry Collins, Vince Young, Trent Edwards, Jason Campbell, Chad Pennington, Mark Bulger, Shaun Hill, Daunte Culpepper, and Brooks Bollinger.
The Vikings do not have to draft a quarterback #1 next year.
by medicineball on Nov 1, 2009 12:42 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Not sure
How you can expect TJack to carry this team. I’ve seen every game he’s played in and not once did he look comfortable playing.
by Grime on Nov 3, 2009 10:56 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Did you ever see Gannon play as a Viking?
Gannon looked terrible as a Viking most times he played. The Vikings drafted him and kept him for 5 years. Then he was let go. Pretty soon he’s lighting it up for other teams.
The Vikings gave up on Gannon too soon. The Vikings should keep going with Jackson.
Jackson is not earning huge money. He contributes to the team as backup QB. He’s a good teammate. He has good moral character.
Ultimately, Jackson has more raw talent than JD Booty, and that is why he is with the Vikings. I hope Jackson will re-sign with the Vikings.
by medicineball on Nov 3, 2009 12:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah I saw Gannon play
As well as Wade, and countless others. I think getting rid of Gannon was a good idea. Still do, he was sucking it up for the Vikes. Some times QB’s feel it better in a different system. If after five years he hasn’t stepped up then it’s time to try again. Seriously, how many qb’s suck it up for five years then take you to a Super Bowl? By that reasoning San Diego was stupid to get rid of Ryan Leaf.
by Grime on Nov 5, 2009 2:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Would you
with Mr. Jumpy A.K.A. Ryan Cook playing Tackle?
by boomy44 on Nov 4, 2009 4:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I pretty much expect him to yes.
Mostly because he’s an NFL qb. Hell, look at Rodgers he gets hit more than a red necks wife and he still stands in the pocket. Know your crap, if you don’t get out. This is a job and if you aren’t performing to task then you should be let go.
by Grime on Nov 5, 2009 2:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
By my count
2003 – Carson Palmer
2004 – Ely Manning, Phillip Rivers, Ben Rothlisberger
2005 – Aaron Rogers
2006 – Cutler (maybe)
2007 – Nobody
2008 – Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco (maybe)
thats 9 out of 18 in first round and none in the second round (Not counting 2009)
and 0/7 in the second round (also not including 2009 draft)
Just because a player has played a significant number of starts for his team, does not make him a franchise player. (see Jason Cambell). I don’t think that there are too meny Redskins fans who wouldn’t trade Cambell for a box of practice footballs right now.
And while 50% may seem like a high success rate, the cost (financially) of a first round QB is very high. high enough that a drafting a journeymen instead of a franchise QB could kill your cap for years. and a bust can just destroy it (look at jamarcus Russell in Oakland). If next year still has a cap, they can’t afford to cut him, and no one will take him in trade.
We do need a QB, but we should not draft one in the first round just to draft one.
as an aside, I only count 20 first rounders in your list and 8 second, not the 23 and 7.
Will the Real Thor Please Stand Up ... ?
by the Real Thor on Nov 1, 2009 1:31 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Sorry
I meant 8/18 QB’s not 9/18.
Will the Real Thor Please Stand Up ... ?
by the Real Thor on Nov 1, 2009 1:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
None will be available at the end of the 1st, so no point going for it. DT is what we need.
Go Nevada Wolf Pack!
by BacksThePack on Nov 1, 2009 1:38 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
2003- only Palmer has been close to consistent and remains with his original team. So far, the rest have been considered bust’s. One is the loneliest number.
2004-Probably the best one regarding QB’s as of late as Losman is the only one who hasn’t done squat. It’s a 3-way
2005-Rodgers is the only one to me that has proven anything. Campbell may have been the Skins starter the last few years but I have a hard time thinking he will really go much farther then he has and has been somewhat inconsistent. Smith really hasn’t proven himself either, though there might be a slight chance figuring he has been on a bad 49ers team till recent. I will take Rodgers as the only one worthy so far here. 1
2006-Here is where I piss off the brethren. No one, including Crybaby Cutler or our T.J. has shown anything to get worked up over. Yeah, when he is hot, Cutler is hot, but that seems to be every other week at best. This hasn’t changed from Denver or Chi-town. T.J. has seemed more comfortable and seems to make more plays when he has been named the 2nd string. As of yet, I still have not seen much over all to tell me he will ever be the one we have needed to lead this team. So a big 0 for this year as well. If some say T.J. makes it 1 for this year, then why do we have a twice un-retired QB as our starting QB?
2007-Kolb has made himself at least a very competent back-up and who knows if/how he will do if he takes over the reins in Philly or somewhere else. Russell has turned into this decades Kordell Stewart, athletic but with the brains of Forrest Gump. Quinn may possess the skills but never will see them with the Browns. Goose Egg here
2008-No arguements with the 1st round of this year. Two very solid Rookies who will only get better with a few more years under their belts. Henne seems to be doing ok being thrust into the starter roll at Miami. Definite 2 here, with a possible 3rd depending on next years situation in Miami.
2009-While both are rookies and as of yet only played this season, both were drafted as the new face of both franchises. Sanchez started hot, came to Earth but will have the Jets fighting for at least a Wild Card. Stafford will have a tougher year being on Detroit, but again, was drafted as the man for now and the future. I am counting both as the Franchise QB’s. 2
So for me, that makes it 9 with the rest so far being to inconsistent to be considered the face of the franchise.
"That is the craziest sonofabitch I ever saw, how many more like him do you think are up there?"
by VikesFaninNM on Nov 1, 2009 2:32 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for the comments
I knew that people would differ on who is and isn’t a franchise QB. I will say this. If the Vikes draft someone who another team will give 2- #1’s a #3 and a #5 to get thats a franchise QB. Whether you like Cutler or not his price qualifies. Did your QB take you to the Superbowl? That probably qualifies no matter how much Grossman sucked. In other words Did you make a good #1 pick? Leftwich? Successful. Of course not all played for 10 years. Just like Culpepper. But wasn’t Culpepper a great QB draft selection? I was pointing out that more than 50%are far from bust.
Would you take Kolb today? I would based on his performance. Henne? Same.
Ask yourself this. The vikings traded away the #18 pick to Kansas city for Jared Allen. KC traded it to Baltimore who used it to get Flacco. Did the Vikes do the right thing? Of course now that Farve is with us the decision was great. but if we didn’t have Farve would you rather have Flacco or Allen? These are draft decisions. No one team will ever be 100% right or wrong (except Oakland).
When we draft next year I think we need to draft a QB with our #1 pick if and only if that person is judged by our scouts and evaluators to be the Viking QB for the future. Otherwise get another journeyman until the right QB comes along.
Look through the list and ask yourself are these guys better than the perpetual backups that come in free agency? I’m not willing to pay the draft pick cost that Chicago paid for a good QB. We need the talent of a Farve as proven by this years success. I just think the only way to get it is by drafting. If the right guy isn’t available then take the best fotball player available that fits your system ( Harvin).
by lifelongvike on Nov 2, 2009 9:30 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
But would we have drafted Flacco?
No.
We might have done a lot of other things with that pick, but drafting Flacco is definitely not one of them.
There’s a chance you might pick up someone out of FA but it’s not really that likely. A trade always means giving up someone you probably can’t afford to let go. So yes, drafting the franchise QB is the best option, IF you get the right one. The best time to do that was after Childress’ first year, when we had fairly high draft picks.
Now we’ll have to trade up. The Lions did the right thing with Stafford, they’ll be set for a long time and have a core to build around.
Ah, ah,
We come from the land of the ice and snow,
From the midnight sun where the hot springs blow.
The hammer of the gods will drive our ships to new lands,
To fight the horde, singing and crying: Valhalla, I am coming!
SKOL!
by DCPurple on Nov 3, 2009 9:50 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Have to admit your right
I hate to admit my mistakes but I laughed at Baltimore for trading up in the draft to take a division ll QB with the #18 pick. But thats trusting your scouts and knowing your system. This is the year we find out how our scouts rate QB’s. Rick Spielman has batted .000 selecting QB’s in his career. Lets hope he has learned from those mistakes.
by lifelongvike on Nov 3, 2009 11:31 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm worried we'll be going after McNabb
And all that comes with him.
by Grime on Nov 3, 2009 11:01 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Almost agree
I like Mcnabb but you get a talented experienced QB that get hurts every year. He is not the answer to our long term QB issue. Just another Moon, Cunningham, McMahon quick fix that won’t last.
I believe Troy Smith out of Baltimore is a free agent this year. He was scheduled to start in front of Flacco last year but an injury got Flacco the start and the rest is history. He has upside and has been on the bench for a couple of years. He could be a good pick up while we wait for the next franchise pick.
by lifelongvike on Nov 3, 2009 11:24 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Jackson is better than Troy Smith
Tarvaris is a better pro quarterback than Troy Smith, and always will be.
I wouldn’t shut the door on McNabb. He’s had to carry a lot of teams. He might really improve if he’s on a team with lots of offensive weapons, including a running game.
by medicineball on Nov 3, 2009 12:33 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Respectfully disagree
Hard to tell if Travaris is better than Smith. He has not stepped up and shown he can effectively run this offense. His pass selection seems to mirror those QB’s that end up on the bench as permanent back-ups. He might be better with time behind Farve. I certainly hope he is what they thought he was when drafted.
Smith was ready to be the Starter on Baltimores team. Flacco did not win the job in training camp. Flacco played due to injury. Flacco is special and Smith will never win his starter job back no matter how talented he his.. Just like Houston trading for the Atlantta backup I pose the thought that Smith might be an answer since his contract is up this year.
by lifelongvike on Nov 4, 2009 12:04 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Tyler Sheehan
Quarterback, Bowling Green. 6’3. Senior. Has played for four years, and started for three years.
Terrific player. Makes clutch plays. Great intangibles. Good throwing mechanics. Good accuracy. Throws great all over the field. Has taken a lot of snaps under center in college, though mostly in shotgun.
by medicineball on Nov 5, 2009 12:37 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Interesting
I will look him up but I do not prefer a kid from a spread offense. Most college programs today run this set because they don’t have the talent for a pro-style offense. However if the talent is there the project can sometimes be successful.
I imagine you see him as a 2nd or 3rd round pick or later. These players become franchise guys less than 30% of the time. Do we have that luxury? Just asking.
by lifelongvike on Nov 5, 2009 1:46 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I don't know
When it comes to quarterbacks, it’s only a good draft pick if he becomes a franchise player. Sometimes guys take time to develop. I think we need to draft a QB in round 1, 2, or 3 next year. I don’t see the Vikings trading up to #5 overall and getting the next Mark Sanchez.
I believe Tyler Sheehan has a legitimate chance to become a good NFL quarterback. I watched him in the Bowling Green vs. Buffalo game the other night on ESPN2. He has “it.” He has the leadership and throwing ability to lead a team to a come-from-behind victory.
by medicineball on Nov 5, 2009 2:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Give me intelligence
The rest can be worked on, but Tavaris has shown me that you can’t instill intelligence.
by Grime on Nov 5, 2009 2:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Sheehan is 25th rated
Sheehan’s stats look great. Over 60% passing completions in three straight years. However arm strength and quickness backing away from center are terribly important. Scouts,inc has him as the 25th best QB prospect which puts him in round 5-7. If he is not rated by the experts any higher than this then you have less than a 10% chance of him being the Future of the team. Whoever the Vikes pick the person has to be able to play in 2011 and start in 2012. The Vikes won’t have a QB under contract by 2012 unless T-Jax is recontracted.
by lifelongvike on Nov 5, 2009 2:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The 37th best QB or 37th best player?
Who rated him. I’m always interested. Do you think the Vikes will go with another small school QB after the t-Jax experiment?
by lifelongvike on Nov 6, 2009 7:16 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Link
Here’s the link. Maybe we were talking about different rankings.
by medicineball on Nov 6, 2009 12:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Tyler
The draft site you linked to has Tyler Sheehan rated the 39th best QB in the draft. They project that he will not be drafted. I like the idea of bringing guys like this to camp to see if your scouting department has found a diamond in the rough. If you really like him draft him in the last couple of rounds.
Thanks for the link
by lifelongvike on Nov 6, 2009 4:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
ForThose interested in Vikings needs
I just posted a review of the Vikings needs and existing contracts. I thought it would be a good place to start in looking forward to the draft.
by lifelongvike on Nov 5, 2009 2:34 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

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