The Myth of the 30-something QB in decline

in their 50’s that can run rings ‘round me, at 28, just because they KNOW WHAT THEY ARE DOING. age is a non-factor when you are smart about how you do your job. i’m not a fan of favre, but we’ve hitched our wagon to him, so, i’m pullin for him. just keep him upright and let’s win this thing.

(This was the only post where this somewhat made sense, and I was dying to do this)

Donovan would be a good fit!

I voted “still lingering…”

Pro-football-reference recently found a quarterback’s peak performances tend to occur between ages 28-31, and that a QB’s ability to produce relative to his individual true talent level is actually rather bell-shaped (that is, the further away from that peak you go on either end, it’s comprable: in other words, a 24-year-old ell’s about: he’s roughly a league average QB who flashes good accuracy and takes care of the ball. He’s basically the so-called game manager so many fans were convinced the Vikings needed, but having accomplished this level of performance largely already, before the peak age of this analysis, one could reasonably expect better-than-average play out of Campbell over his next contract (assuming 3-4 years). And if the Vikings plan on rolling with their current core largely in-tact for the forseeable future and hope to win as much as possible with them, odds are signing a guy like Campbell would be a better match than an extremely old or extremely young guy at QB.

Now, it’s a quarterback’s league, and signing someone like Jason Campbell isn’t terribly sexy. But, Jimmy Johnson once said if you minimize your risks, you can win 9 or 10 games. Campbell would be minimizing the risk. I guess it’s a matter of preference, though. (Since I don’t exactly see this team making a run with Jason Campbell, I’d prefer a tear-down/rebuild probably a little sooner. So I’m not exactly advocating a Campbell signing, to be clear.)

TJack of course is still 26. But the question with him is what is his true talent level? When he’s 28 and entering his peak, will he be equal to Campbell? I’m not convinced, personally. Maybe their pie-in-the-sky scenario is something clicks for Jackson watching Favre (and to be fair TJack, this is really the first time he’s had a true #1 to watch; not a warm body begging to be displaced). Who knows?

Holy deleted text, Batman! Here’s what the first two paragraphs are supposed to look like:

Pro-football-reference recently found a quarterback’s peak performances tend to occur between ages 28-31, and that it’s actually rather bell-shaped (that is, the further away from that peak you go on either end, it’s comprable: in other words, a 24-year-old QB can be expected to perform about the same (relative to his true talent level as an individual) as that same QB as a 36-year-old). Goofy blips can happen in any individual season, though, and exceptions can be found.

Take it for what it’s worth, but one prominant free agent QB who happens to be entering his peak age is Jason Campbell (turns 29 New Years Eve). We pretty much know what Campbell’s about: he’s roughly a league average QB who flashes good accuracy and takes care of the ball. He’s basically the so-called game manager so many fans were convinced the Vikings needed, but having accomplished this level of performance largely already, before the peak age of this analysis, one could reasonably expect better-than-average play out of Campbell over his next contract (assuming 3-4 years). And if the Vikings plan on rolling with their current core largely in-tact for the forseeable future and hope to win as much as possible with them, odds are signing a guy like Campbell would be a better match than an extremely old or extremely young guy at QB.

and Steve DeBerg as an example of a good quarterback, I kind of shudder. Testaverde was more of a testament to longevity than excellence. He also finally got some talent around him, which you could say for just about any of those quarterbacks. So to me the question becomes this: Did Testaverde raise the level of the play of the talent around him, or did the talent finally assembled allow him to have a good year or two in the twilight of his career?

I would say it would be the latter. With Favre, it’s the opposite, with the exception of Adrian Peterson. Seems like that’s a big factor in all of this.

I think what you just “proved” is not that age doesn’t affect quarterbacks — it most DEFINITELY does, no matter what stats say, just ask Favre, he knows more about it than the rest of us combined times 100 — but what you just proved is that A QB’s stats and ratings are determined almost as much by the team he has around him, as his abilities himself. All those QBs that you cite as having great years in their 30’s, well I bet they had great years because they are on great TEAMS, not because they haven’t declined.

there aren’t a lot of qb’s who last past age 35 because they can’t and age is the reason. if you go through your list and only show those that happened after age 35 it would look like this:

•As good as Fran Tarkenton was in his 20s, 3/4 of his seasons with a passer rating of 89+ were accomplished as a 30-something. 4 of his 9 Pro Bowl appearances were awarded in his 30s, including 3 consecutive Pro Bowl appearances at ages 34-36.

•3/4 of Kerry Collins’s best seasons were in his 30s, including his first Pro Bowl appearance at age 36.

•Steve DeBerg’s best season came at age 36.

•Craig Morton posted his best rating in 1981 at age 38.

why? because age/injury(which becomes more likely as you age) prohibits players from playing at a high level late into their careers. it is a factor. it is why they retire and why we don’t have 10 40-somethings in the league every year.

i agree that pennington is a good qb but to me he’s done. he’s not playing because he’s hurt again. that’s more likely to occur again next year as he’ll be even older.

where are all these great qb’s in their mid-to-late thirties? we have 2 guys this year who are starting over the age of 35. warner and favre. collins was starting but has been benched. and guess what? he turned 36 this year.

the early thirties are when experience finally catches up to physical skills. sometimes sooner, sometimes later depending on the guy. then, again depending on the guy, the physical tools start to erode.

there’s no myth. football players begin to decline in their 30’s. qb or otherwise, it’s a fact.