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Early Draft Talk

With the college season starting to wrap up, scouts are starting to finish up their initial reports on seniors. Some only have a game or two left depending on if they are in a bowl or not. Its still too early to know exactly which rounds guys are going to be drafted or which juniors are going to declare, but it is a good time to start keeping your eyes on a few players. Here are 7 seniors who I think, (and one or two I know) the Vikings are looking at and where it looks like they will be taken in the 2010 draft. Plus some juniors to watch if they declare. Critical assumption: We are doing this based on the Vikings having one of the last 4 picks in each round.

 

1. George Selvie, OLB, USF 6'4'' 250 - Normally, I wouldn't think to look at Selvie, who has been considered a 3-4 OLB by most scouting sites since he was a junior. However, via SB Nations Mocking the Draft, there is a link to Chris Steuber of Scouts.com's twitter page where Chris states he knows the Vikings are interested in him. This got me asking, "Why would the Vikings be interested in a college DE that is considered too small to play DE in the NFL and most consider a 3-4 OLB?". The conclusion I come to is that most 3-4 OLB would actually make good to great SAM LBs in a 4-3 scheme. Need an example? Ben Leber played OLB for 2 years in San Diego's 3-4 (In the years before that San Diego ran a 4-3) before coming to Minnesota. He wasn't overly successful at it, but he was used more in coverage it seems than rushing the QB. Both Leber and Selvie have similar size, but Selvie is considered a much better athlete. One knock I can think of is that since he plays DE for USF, he doesn't have much experience in coverage and right now there isn't a way to tell how good he would be covering WRs , TEs, and RBs, but he definitely has the athletic ability to do so. He came into his senior season as the active NCAA leader in tackles for loss and second in sacks for active players. He also came into the season as a first round prospect, but while he has had a good season, it hasn't been up to most peoples expectations and his DE teammate, JR. Jason Pierre-Paul, has been getting way more ink and praise.  Here is a link to a ESPN Draft Lab were KC Joyner uses his metrics system to evaluate Selvie. You have to be a Insider to read it all, but if you arent, I will try to post what it says in the comments, but I don't know it that is something that would be able to stay up (i.e. after the Nostradamus posting last week, I wouldn't want to put something here to make Gonzo have to delete the whole post). Either way: Joyner's metrics make Selvie look like a good player.

2. Dan Williams, DT Tennessee 6'3'' 327 - Here is a guy I am very intrigued with. There doesn't seem to be any real consensus on where he should be drafted. He is #21 on Mel Kipers Big Board, but then over at the Nation Football Post, he doesn't even make the top ten draftable DTs. I think he will be closely watched by the Vikings and Minnesota fans for a couple of reasons. 1) He is about the same size as Pat Williams and is considered to be athletic, 2) He currently plays Phat Pats position in Tennessee, 3)Tennessee runs the same defense that Minnesota runs and is coached by the guy who taught Fraizer (and everyone else) the Tampa 2, Monte Kiffin. As it looks right now, he is a younger version of Phat Pat and would be a great choice as the heir to his position.

3. Greg Hardy, DE Ole Miss, 6'5'' 275 - Even if the Vikings get Ray Edwards to sign back with the team (funny how well he is playing in the contract year, but the year he proclaims he will break the sack record he only got 5 with 3 coming in the last 2 games, but I digress) the depth at the position seems thin. With Ray Edwards, having Brian Robison and Jayme Mitchell as rotation guys sounds pretty good. But with out Ray, that just doesn't seem good enough. Hardy is a guy that is going to drop a lot because of his injury concerns, but he has tremendous ability when he is healthy and could be used as a situational player as he lets his body heal and continue to develop for the NFL.

4. Jon Asamoah, OG Illinois 6'5'' 315 - While the O-line is playing great and the Vikings have two players who fill in as back ups very well in Hicks and Cooks, I wouldn't want those back-ups starting and while Herrera can still be called young, Hutch is on the wrong side of 30. Asamoah is very similar to Hutch in size and athletic ability, and plays in a zone blocking offense, but he could use some time to develop into a full time NFL starter. He could step in as a guy who can fill in for injury early in his career as he gets ready for a full time starting spot.

5. Walter Thurmond III, CB Oregon 6' 183 -  Walter has been one of the best corners in the PAC-10 since his sophomore year. He has excelled in zone coverage and as a return man, however, the reason he drops here is because while he is good at every thing, he isn't elite at anything and he has some injury concerns. Before he was injured this season, he was on the Jim Thorpe Award (Nations best DB) watch list and returned two punts for touchdowns. He was considered better in college than his former teammate and current Buffalo Bill Jariyus Byrd who has been a revelation for that defense.

6. Jeron Masturd, TE Kansas State 6'6'' 253 - Another luxury pick for the Vikings as they don't have many holes to fill (at least until FA starts after the season). TE is another position the Vikings are getting kind of old at and could use another TE that can excel at blocking. Jeron has the size and ability to be a good blocker in the NFL and his size would be a benefit in the red zone.

7. Bobby McClintock, FB/RB Portland State 5'10'' 240 - Plays in a run and shoot system that has him work more as a runner than a blocker. Bobby is a bowling ball running up field and has very reliable hands in the passing game. could develop into a FB who also can sub in for Peterson and deliver punishment to defenders that would wear them down more as the game goes on.

 

Here are some other guys to keep your eye on:

Ryan Mallett, QB Arkansas 6'6'' 220 - Ryan is a very talented 3rd year sophomore who could declare and would be worthy of 1st round consideration. In one year at Arkansas, he is already setting a lot of the schools passing records and he is similar to Joe Flacco in size and ability. I think with the talent already on the Vikings roster, they could be led effectively, just like Flacco did for the Ravens last year.

Ryan Mathews/ Toby Gerhart, RBs Fresno State/Stanford, 5'11'' 220/6'1'' 235 -  I like both of these guys for the same reason. In the hypothetical situation where Chester Taylor doesn't stay with the Vikings for whatever reason (IMO his vaule is with the Vikings and he won't actively leave), the Vikings should look at a RB to compliment Peterson or contribute if he should somehow get hurt (God forbid). Harvin and/or Young can serve has the fast/scat back option and either one of these guys could serve as the battering ram that hammers down defenses, making them wish the game would just end. Both are big backs that deal out punishment and both are having fantastic seasons for their teams.

Ras-I Dowling, CB Virginia 6'2'' 200 -  Ras is considered one of the best Jr. coverage corners who is also physical in the run game. Fits very well into a Tampa 2 system, but still has a year of eligibility.

Austen Lane, DE Murray State 6'7'' 270 - My favorite cliche is "You can't teach size" and Lane is a great example of that. He dominates the FCS level because of his size, but could use some time to develop at the NFL level. Still has a ton of athletic ability and could add some depth to the DE position while spending some time developing.

This FanPost was created by a registered user of The Daily Norseman, and does not necessarily reflect the views of the staff of the site. However, since this is a community, that view is no less important.

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ESPN Draft Lab: George Selvie

Draft Lab: George Selvie’s stock
Selvie did shine against the Seminoles, but there’s one key flaw to his game
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Insider
Joyner By KC Joyner
ESPN Insider
Archive

The central premise of the Draft Lab series is to gauge a player’s on-field performance to see if it measures up with his physical attributes. That premise comes with a caveat regarding competition levels. If a team faces a series of weak opponents (as often happens in college football), metric dominance by an individual player probably has to be taken with a full shaker of salt.

That was the case for South Florida Bulls defensive end George Selvie after the Bulls beat Wofford, Western Kentucky and Charleston Southern by a combined score of 134-20. Selvie racked up 11 tackles, 2.5 sacks and a pass defensed in these contests against subpar competition, but his first real test came Saturday when South Florida traveled to Tallahassee to face the Florida State Seminoles. The Seminoles’ offense was coming off a 54-point showing on the road against then-No.7 Brigham Young, so they might rightfully be considered one of the hottest offenses in college football.

The question for Selvie was if he could continue his superb metrics once the competition level increased.

Getty ImagesGeorge Selvie will need to continue to shine against high-caliber competition.

So how did Selvie do?

For KC Joyner’s evaluation of Selvie’s performance against FSU — which also includes the one major flaw in the DE’s game — you must be an ESPN Insider. Insider

One of the ways I gauge pass-rushing performance is via splash plays — when a defender does something that negatively impacts the quarterback when he is passing. Examples can include sacks, hurries, tipping passes or drawing blocking penalties.

Two of the most dominant NFL defensive linemen in this metric in 2008 were DeMarcus Ware and Terrell Suggs. Ware posted 39 splash plays and Suggs 35.5, or a rough average of about 2.5 per game for each. In order for a college player to be considered a viable dominant NFL pass-rushing candidate, he would have to post per-game totals against top-level competition that are even higher than that.

Selvie showed he is capable of this by posting five splash plays against FSU. He helped force a throwaway on the Seminoles’ first drive, got a sack and drew an offensive holding penalty on their fifth drive, forced a quarterback scramble on their 10th drive and drew a chop-block penalty on their 13th drive — and he played in only 28 of the 44 drop-backs made by Florida State; his totals could have been far higher if he had been on the field more often.

Selvie also had an impact when he didn’t make a splash play by drawing double-teams. He faced two blockers on nine plays. Selvie gained a splash play on two of those, so altogether he either had a splash play or faced a double-team on 12 of his 28 pass-rushing plays.

He also did well on the few times that Florida State ran the ball at him. Selvie was at the point of attack (POA) for five Seminoles runs, and FSU ball carriers gained only 6 yards on those plays. Selvie faced two blockers on one of the runs and won one of the POA blocks on another, so he had a positive impact on 40 percent of the POA rushes he faced.

If there was a downside to Selvie’s performance, it was in the area of pass-rush variance. The top pass-rushers in the NFL typically have mastered at least four pass-rush moves, but Selvie used a bull rush almost exclusively — on 16 of his 19 bull rushes, he just went straight ahead, not combining it with any other move. That is working very well for him at the collegiate level, but one-trick pass-rush ponies don’t usually cut it in the NFL, so Selvie would do well to practice other moves the rest of the season.

The Lab Result: It is only one game, but Selvie’s overpowering showing against one of the hottest passing teams in college football provides ample proof of his on-field skills. He gets a preliminary TFS seal of approval.

KC Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. For more information on his core metrics, check out his Web site and look for him on Twitter @kcjoynertfs.

by vikingfuture8816 on Nov 21, 2009 3:16 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Interesting

He is projected as the 15th best safety available this year. I read one review where they didn’t like him because he chose academics over football for one game. This at a school where Bobby Bowden chooses hiself over the football team every day. This guy could be a diamond in the rough 2nd or 3rd round

by lifelongvike on Nov 22, 2009 7:47 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Rhodes Scholar

He’s a Rhodes Scholar, so he is a very smart guy.

One thing you want in a draftee is a deep love of football. If Rolle has that, he will be a good, possibly great NFL player. If football is not the thing that drives him, he would probably do best to apply his talents in the direction of his passion. I don’t know much about Myron Rolle. Just making a general observation about football players.

by medicineball on Nov 22, 2009 8:56 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree

This is the kind of player that a good team has to find. A potential first rounder one year ago other teams will pass on him because he didn’t fit the normal parameters. He is to smart? He isn’t devoted?
If the coaching staff likes him ( and I have faith in our scouting department) then a good team can afford to take a chance.
All I know is whatever the Vikes have been doing the past three years as to talent evaluation they need to keep doing.

by lifelongvike on Nov 22, 2009 9:19 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I recall similar statements being made about Alan Page...

Ah, ah,
We come from the land of the ice and snow,
From the midnight sun where the hot springs blow.
The hammer of the gods will drive our ships to new lands,
To fight the horde, singing and crying: Valhalla, I am coming!
SKOL!

by DCPurple on Nov 23, 2009 1:23 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I refuse to read this post and just leave a comment

Why? Why is we even worrying about the Draft next year. What about this year? People are going wayyyyy to far in the future so early! This season isn’t over yet.

Why Do People Question The Vikings' Status?

by UnBannedVikingholic on Nov 21, 2009 6:30 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Why worry about the draft?

Because regardless of how this season unfolds, we will always have the draft to look forward to. There are no draft losers before draft day. Everybody can bask in the all-so-fun “what if…” senarios. There’s nothing in the world more exciting than seeing the guy you really really want your team to get fall right in their laps. Even if he doesn’t pan out in the NFL, for at least a little while you feel on top of the world knowing you had a good draft.

by Jayrome007 on Nov 22, 2009 1:43 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

PS
for at least a little while you feel on top of the world

“On top of the world” is a relative term for Vikings’ fans. In reality, we actually have no idea what that feels like.

by Jayrome007 on Nov 22, 2009 1:45 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Heh

Maybe not, but after reading up more on Harvin’s story, it makes a lot of sense. Chilly scouted him hard, and clearly wanted him. Percy really wanted to go to Minnesota. Everything came together in last’s year draft and the Vikings landed magic.

We may not be on top of the world… but we’re on the trail towards the summit :)

Ah, ah,
We come from the land of the ice and snow,
From the midnight sun where the hot springs blow.
The hammer of the gods will drive our ships to new lands,
To fight the horde, singing and crying: Valhalla, I am coming!
SKOL!

by DCPurple on Nov 23, 2009 1:34 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Excellent post

I love hearing in depth coverage of the draft even at this early juncture. And this is a very well written and informative article. Even better than anything the local newspaper (Minneapolis Star Tribune) schmucks could come up with.

But I just wanted to clarify. Is this a mock draft of sorts? Is this your prediction on what guys the Vikes would draft in each round or just a list of guys they are interested in regardless of round? Either way, well done. Keep em coming.

by Jayrome007 on Nov 22, 2009 1:33 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Evaluation of your evaluation

On the whole, I would be satisfied with this senario. Especially the selections of a NT and a FB. I think those two positions are our biggest needs right now. I would even say I’d love to see both of those positions drafted even higher.

Will Greg Hardy really last until the 3rd? Wow, would that be a steal.

by Jayrome007 on Nov 22, 2009 1:48 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Nice Work

I love the draft and its complexities. The problem, as a fan, is insufficient data on college players. The metric performance levels are difficult to obtain. Therefore the only data fans have to rely on is the small amount put out by the media and its hype machine.

Thanks for a different view. You didn’t touch on the Q.B. position except for Ryan Mallett. He is a project Q.B. that has had an interesting college career. I’m always wary of Q.B.‘s that transfer because they can’t earn the starting spot where they originally went to school. Just seems like a lack of character issue.

I think the real interesting question for the Vikes is not who they draft ( they will draft need) but what position do they draft first. They are in such a great position to take a top 15 player that might fall to them ( ie. Percy Harvin). On the other hand they will only get one pick in the first 60 players. That first one must be a good one.
Thanks for the draft talk.

by lifelongvike on Nov 22, 2009 7:35 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Nebraska safety

Eric Hagg is a 6’2 safety out of Nebraska. He makes a lot of big plays. In the Gator Bowl, in two consecutive plays late in the fourth quarter, he had a pass defensed and a sack in the red zone to preserve his team’s victory.

In yesterday’s Cornhusker win over Kansas State, he had a big sack to stop an early drive.

As a junior he might declare. If he does, he’ll be drafted. He seems to have the skill level to succeed in the NFL.

He is a good guy and would be great to have on the Vikings.

by medicineball on Nov 22, 2009 8:46 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Can't wait to see him against Texas

If he is any good he should come up big against the Texas spread offense. The Big 12 North is not considered the passing division of the Big 12.
 I’m really interested in watching the big DT , Suh, for the Cornhuskers against that Texas Line. Not that the Vikes have a chance at him but the more great players at the line positions that have to be drafted early means that CBs, LBs, and QBs drop to teams like the Vikes.

by lifelongvike on Nov 22, 2009 9:26 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Suh

Yes, he is almost certainly going to be drafted in the top 5 right now. He might end up at DT, NT, or DE, but wherever he plays, he has a chance to be great.

by medicineball on Nov 22, 2009 11:38 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

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