Defense wins championships; at least that’s what they say.
I read a comment in an earlier post stating that the Vikings would have to improve their pass defense because at the time they were ranked 20th and as the writer proclaimed, "I don't think any Super Bowl winner has been ranked 20th or worse in pass defense."
This statement really aroused my curiosity, so of course I couldn't resist doing some on-line investigating. As some of you may know from a few of my past posts, I have a thing for statistics. The attached chart shows the data I gathered and provides a means of comparing the regular season defensive rankings of all Super Bowl participants since the NFL/AFL merger of 1970.
I'll let you have fun looking over the stats and maybe coming up with some of your own conclusions in the process. After the chart I have listed my conclusions and how they relate to the league standings as they are today.
|
SUPER BOWL |
WINNER REG SEASON DEF RANK |
LOSER REG SEASON DEF RANK |
COMMENT* |
|||||||
|
YEAR |
# |
TEAM |
TOTAL |
PASS |
RUSH |
TEAM |
TOTAL |
PASS |
RUSH |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1971 |
V |
BAL |
9 |
21 |
6 |
DAL |
4 |
3 |
10 |
|
|
1972 |
VI |
DAL |
3 |
19 |
2 |
MIA |
5 |
6 |
8 |
|
|
1973 |
VII |
MIA |
1 |
5 |
3 |
WAS |
4 |
6 |
7 |
|
|
1974 |
VIII |
MIA |
3 |
1 |
12 |
MIN |
12 |
12 |
11 |
|
|
1975 |
IX |
PIT |
1 |
1 |
6 |
MIN |
10 |
18 |
5 |
|
|
1976 |
X |
PIT |
4 |
4 |
8 |
DAL |
5 |
8 |
4 |
|
|
1977 |
XI |
OAK |
18 |
23 |
10 |
MIN |
6 |
1 |
17 |
|
|
1978 |
XII |
DAL |
1 |
2 |
3 |
DEN |
9 |
25 |
10 |
|
|
1979 |
XIII |
PIT |
3 |
12 |
1 |
DAL |
2 |
5 |
6 |
|
|
1980 |
XIV |
PIT |
2 |
10 |
4 |
LA * |
7 |
9 |
10 |
|
|
1981 |
XV |
OAK |
11 |
19 |
5 |
PHI |
2 |
5 |
2 |
|
|
1982 |
XVI |
SF |
2 |
3 |
12 |
CIN |
12 |
22 |
9 |
|
|
1983 * |
XVII |
WAS |
4 |
7 |
8 |
MIA |
1 |
1 |
24 |
Strike year (9 lost games) |
|
1984 |
XVIII |
LA * |
4 |
13 |
4 |
WAS |
12 |
28 |
1 |
|
|
1985 |
XIX |
SF |
10 |
17 |
7 |
MIA |
19 |
14 |
22 |
|
|
1986 |
XX |
CHI |
1 |
3 |
1 |
NE |
7 |
9 |
6 |
|
|
1987 |
XXI |
NYG |
2 |
19 |
1 |
DEN |
9 |
16 |
5 |
|
|
1988 * |
XXII |
WAS |
18 |
24 |
10 |
DEN |
9 |
5 |
20 |
Strike year (1 lost game 3 scab games) |
|
1989 |
XXIII |
SF |
3 |
8 |
3 |
CIN |
15 |
10 |
18 |
|
|
1990 |
XXIV |
SF |
4 |
11 |
3 |
DEN |
3 |
3 |
6 |
|
|
1991 |
XXV |
NYG |
2 |
6 |
4 |
BUF |
8 |
7 |
15 |
|
|
1992 |
XXVI |
WAS |
3 |
9 |
3 |
BUF |
27 |
21 |
24 |
|
|
1993 |
XXVII |
DAL |
1 |
5 |
1 |
BUF |
12 |
20 |
2 |
|
|
1994 |
XXVIII |
DAL |
10 |
10 |
11 |
BUF |
27 |
24 |
21 |
|
|
1995 |
XXIX |
SF |
8 |
17 |
2 |
SD |
14 |
22 |
5 |
|
|
1996 |
XXX |
DAL |
3 |
6 |
2 |
PIT |
2 |
5 |
3 |
|
|
1997 |
XXI |
GB |
1 |
7 |
1 |
NE |
5 |
5 |
5 |
|
|
1998 |
XXXII |
DEN |
5 |
5 |
16 |
GB |
7 |
8 |
20 |
|
|
1999 |
XXXIII |
DEN |
11 |
26 |
3 |
ATL |
8 |
21 |
2 |
|
|
2000 |
XXXIV |
STL * |
6 |
20 |
1 |
TEN |
17 |
25 |
10 |
Rams |
|
2001 |
XXXV |
BAL |
2 |
8 |
1 |
NYG |
5 |
16 |
2 |
|
|
2002 |
XXXVI |
NE |
24 |
24 |
19 |
STL * |
3 |
11 |
3 |
Rams |
|
2003 |
XXXVII |
TB |
1 |
1 |
5 |
OAK |
11 |
23 |
3 |
|
|
2004 |
XXXVIII |
NE |
7 |
15 |
4 |
CAR |
8 |
9 |
11 |
|
|
2005 |
XXXIX |
NE |
9 |
17 |
6 |
PHI |
10 |
12 |
16 |
|
|
2006 |
XL |
PIT |
4 |
16 |
3 |
SEA |
16 |
25 |
5 |
|
|
2007 |
XLI |
IND |
21 |
2 |
32 * |
CHI |
5 |
11 |
6 |
Last in the league |
|
2008 |
XLII |
NYG |
7 |
11 |
8 |
NE |
4 |
6 |
10 |
|
|
2009 |
XLIII |
PIT |
1 |
1 |
2 |
ARI |
19 |
22 |
16 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
OK, before I delve into the meat of the data I'd like to point out a few interesting facts:
- There have been 8 champions that finished the regular season 1st in total defense.
- There has only been 1 loser that finished 1st in total defense.
- The Washington Redskins won the Super Bowl each of the 2 years there was a strike.
- Indy won Super Bowl XLI after finishing last in the league in rush defense.
- There have been 6 teams that finished the regular season 20th or worse in pass defense and won the Super Bowl.
Now to get back to why we're here, does defense really win championships? First let's examine what it takes to be a participant in the Super Bowl. To make things a little easier, I have divided the teams into 3 groups and listed the results as % of all participants.
Ranking of 1-10 = good defense
Ranking of 11-19 = average defense
Ranking of 20 and worse = poor defense
Super Bowl participants:
Good total defense - 76%
Average total defense - 19%
Poor total defense - 5%
Good pass defense - 51%
Average pass defense - 26%
Poor pass defense - 23%
Good rush defense - 76%
Average rush defense - 15%
Poor rush defense - 9%
As these numbers point out, for a team to make it to the Super Bowl, it is important to have a good defense. However, it seems that it is much more important to have a good rush defense than it is a pass defense.
Super Bowl winners:
Good total defense - 85%
Average total defense - 10%
Poor total defense - 5%
Good pass defense - 54%
Average pass defense - 31%
Poor pass defense - 15%
Good rush defense - 85%
Average rush defense - 13%
Poor rush defense - 2%
Looking at these numbers it is even more evident of the importance of a good defense. Again it is also evident that a good rush defense is more important than a good pass defense.
So how does this pertain to this year, and more importantly, what does it say about the Vikings chances? If the regular season were to end today, which teams would have a greater chance of making it to the Super Bowl?
|
AFC Division Leaders |
Tot DEF |
Pass DEF |
Rush DEF |
|
NE |
12 Average |
10 Good |
16 Average |
|
CIN |
6 Good |
16 Average |
3 Good |
|
IND |
15 Average |
20 Poor |
15 Average |
|
SD |
13 Average |
8 Good |
21 Poor |
|
Wild Card |
|||
|
DEN |
5 Good |
5 Good |
17 Average |
|
JAX |
21 Poor |
26 Poor |
10 Good |
|
NFC Division Leaders |
|||
|
DAL |
14 Average |
21 Poor |
9 Good |
|
MIN |
8 Good |
19 Average |
2 Good |
|
NO |
16 Average |
18 Average |
20 Poor |
|
ARI |
24 Poor |
29 Poor |
14 Average |
|
Wild Card |
|||
|
GB |
1 Good |
6 Good |
4 Good |
|
PHI |
9 Good |
9 Good |
8 Good |
Notes:
Only 6 Super Bowl participants in the last 39 games did not rank "Good" in at least one of the defensive categories. Of these 6 only 1 went on to win the game.
This tells me that if a team does not finish in the top 10 in either total defense, pass defense, or rush defense, it is highly unlikely they will win the Super Bowl.
OK, so who can we eliminate from the list above?
IND - gone
NO - gone (are you kidding me?)
ARI - gone
Remember that it was determined that a good rush defense is important. I think we can eliminate from the remaining teams those that have less than a good rush defense.
NE - gone
SD - gone
DEN - gone
Alright, who's left?
CIN - good possibility
JAX - would definitely be a surprise
DAL - eh...alright maybe could see it
MIN - you betcha
GB - they just keep hanging around
PHI - they always seem to overachieve
Well according to my calculations, one of these teams will be the next Super Bowl champion. Boy, I'll bet you haven't seen a prediction like that? The one good thing about this list is that only 2 of the teams really fit in the picture.
The Vikings and the Bengals in the Super Bowl!
This FanPost was created by a registered user of The Daily Norseman, and does not necessarily reflect the views of the staff of the site. However, since this is a community, that view is no less important.
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awesome work
and a wonderful read. I’m a stat-lover myself, so this is great.
rec’d
If you can't laugh at yourself... Who can you laugh at?
The Packers, that’s who.
-- The almighty Manimal
also
it would be interesting to see the offensive side of this as well. Did all of those SB teams with below average defenses have INCREDIBLE offenses? Were there some flukes in there? Is there any correlation between O and D? Hmmm… perhaps I’ll get to work now NS.
If you can't laugh at yourself... Who can you laugh at?
The Packers, that’s who.
-- The almighty Manimal
now go back and compare
what the turnover ratio is on those games,I bet those great run Ds caused more turnovers,then compare the win lose ratio then see where NO stands in that catgorie,anyone can canstrew a statistics how they want.go back and look at who won the turnover battle and I bet 80% of those won.We excel on turnovers and defesive TDs by far.Also go back and look at how many QBs won a NFC champ or Super Bowl with a 55%
passer rateing because no one has gotten better than that on us.I bet thats a 0%, weve faced some of the best Pass OLs in the game.Giants,Falcs,Pats,why would you think Farves would be deferent. theres alot of variables that your not including in that yards allowed scenarios.Plus we where rank 4th in rush D before we lost Ellis and Fujita,while at the same time going up against the 4 of the 5 best run teams in the NFL in a row three comeing off byes weeks, so very deciveing.We probaly end up around the 8-9 rush and pass D by the end of the year because of the ease of our remaing games.plus in the second half of games we only allow about an avarage of 30 yards on the ground,so we can give a team 150 yards 3 turnovers a game and still beat them by 10 points in their house comeing off a bye.
CAN YOU?
Let's see....
Time wil tell…..
Be ready!
Only advice I can give ya!
Vikes are hungry and focused…
I would rather be IN the Arena than watching from the stands...That is my life!
* Read Teddy Roosevelt's "Man in the Arena" if you need further explanation...
by vikingfanfrom afar on Dec 5, 2009 9:44 AM CST up reply actions
plus if your go back 15 years
witch is far back as want to research OFF wins games going from from 08 and down (use the list above) to see the teams its as follows.
W- L OFF
08 22-4
07 16-1
06 3-15
05 7-19
04 7-13
03 10-25
02 21-13
01 14-9
00 1-14
99 14-27
98 3-5
97 4-15
96 15-24
95 2-16
94 8-10
10-5 ratio what youll fell to mention is the better OFF wins more time than the Ds do
That's why they play the game!
I piss people off on a fairly regular basis. I cherish my right to speak my mind, whether I sound like an uneducated savage or not. I've never been accused of keeping what I think a secret, nor will I ever. Don't like it? I don't care.
darshiva420
I don’t need to. You are correct about statistics. They are merely for a point of discussion. I don’t put much stock in them and I’ll tell you why.
Favre came into camp late. At the start of the season he was not used to or comfortable with his receivers. He was tentative, took too many sacks and wouldn’t throw downfield. Due to this fact, The Vikings did not dominate Cleveland, Detroit, etc… in the manner that they should have. The offense did not control the clock enough and the defense spent more time on the field than they should have. The Vikings offense did not even "begin" to hit their stride until week seven. This skews the stats a great deal, for the offense and defense for the entire season.
The Vikings have also brought in their second string quarter and other back ups as early as the third quarter. Do you think this might also have an effect on stats? How much time has your back up quarterback played this year? I’m merely curious about the last question, as I honestly don’t know the answer.
"What is best in life?"
"To crush your enemies, to see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentations of their women."
or entire D
with over half our secondary being new took on one of the most diffacult systems in football all in one off season.our QBs played every game but weve had 6 games now with at least 5 or more starters out in our D gave up 13 turnovers in four games allowed over 135 rushing in each of those games and still wonWe dont have starters on out team our entire 1st and 2nd string play intricuatly in the games
We've been missing...
our best corner for five weeks now and Percy Harvin has had to learn the slot receiver position as well. He has improved every week. Bernard Berrian has has hamstring issues and has not done much to date. Although, it appears that he’s starting to come around.
Top that off with essentially two rookie O lineman (one is a second year player but at the hardest line position to learn, Center. He has to read the defense and make the line calls).How much do you think he played backing up Matt Burke last year. They both made a lot of mistakes in the first few games.
A lucky break here, a bad bounce there, or a blown call can cost a team a game. Or allow them to win it. Sometimes teams go through hot or cold streaks or have a bad game at the wrong time. That’s why you have to play the entire season.
To end with a cliche. “Never count your chickens before they hatch”.
"What is best in life?"
"To crush your enemies, to see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentations of their women."
There's really no sense in responding to HOMER420
I’ve read his post’s over at Canal Street, he’s got the Saints going to Miami and absolutely killing whoever they meet. Nobody stands a chance. (even though there’s still 5wks of reg-season football before the playoffs even start)
We Vikings fans have had so many winning season’s and playoff appearances in our history, that we know ANYTHING can happen in the playoffs. Injury’s, missed FG’s, bs-penalties, or just horrible play from the team.
I’m gonna end with a cliche for darshiva420 as well. “Any Given Sunday”
I was well aware...
of his/her posts on Canal Street and crafted my responses accordingly. He/she has posted in a civil manner here, so far. As long as that continues I have no issues that need to be addressed…
"What is best in life?"
"To crush your enemies, to see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentations of their women."
by cryhavoc on Dec 5, 2009 7:07 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Very Interesting Post
Really a lot of work and we all have heard the old adage defense wins games….to see it here all laid out is pretty cool….
Think someone else mentioned intangibles…..these play a part of any game of course, but your effort here and the stats show indeed that D is sooooo important….
We have our base covered on this one lol! I wonder now how tough that game will be against Cinci…..
We do have a few tough games yet, starting with the Cards on Sunday….real tests for our D and also a chance for AD to work on his speed (on the field, not in the road lol!)…
Thanks and SKOL!
I would rather be IN the Arena than watching from the stands...That is my life!
* Read Teddy Roosevelt's "Man in the Arena" if you need further explanation...
by vikingfanfrom afar on Dec 3, 2009 3:43 PM CST reply actions
Who was #1 in rush D this year?
I saw we are #2, and I’m hoping we overtake it again – it’s a GREAT stat line…
Pittsburgh
currently sits at the top in rushing yards allowed. Cincinnati is just behind us in third. The Vikes have done really well the last 2 weeks stopping the run.
"Skol pa fiskande"
Wow I have a mini show and I don't go into stats like this
GREAT JOB !
Why Do People Question The Vikings' Status?
by UnBannedVikingholic on Dec 3, 2009 5:52 PM CST reply actions
Aside from the Good, Average and Poor thresholds being completely arbitrary (19 good, 20 poor?). The numbers speak for themselves, a cursory look would tell you the better total defense wins about 70%, but that being the top ranked defense doesn’t guarantee anything. But to the larger point, its an old NFL maxim that if you can run the ball and stop the run, you’ll be in good position to win a fair amount of games.
19 is average, not good
If you can't laugh at yourself... Who can you laugh at?
The Packers, that’s who.
-- The almighty Manimal
touchy much?
eye roll
If you can't laugh at yourself... Who can you laugh at?
The Packers, that’s who.
-- The almighty Manimal
Not at all...
But, error aside, did you have a comment regarding whether having three catagories, in which one can be average at 19 and poor at 20 makes any sense in determining a teams strengths?
If not, then big eye roll back at cha grammer cop.
I guess
provided you have a top 5 run defense a passing defense of 19 or 20 means you have a pretty good defense.
I would break it down into categories of 8. Top 8 are very good, second 8 are pretty good, next 8 are okay/subpar and the final 8 are bad.
by TheEvilProfessor on Dec 4, 2009 2:21 PM CST up reply actions
The author admits its not perfect...
No doubt the Vikings are good. Their pass defense rank doesn’t tell the whole story. Despite missing Winfield, the pass defense has not been exposed. Besides, it has to be said that if teams can’t run against you they have to do something, the passing numbers are going to be inflated.
Of course
labeling the 19th ranked defense as average and the 20th as poor may not make sense but as my post stated, I wrote it because someone had made the comment that no team ranked 20th or worse had ever won the SB.
The point of the post was simply to provide the data so everyone could come up with their own conclusions to support the statement that “defense wins championships”.
I think I did this by concluding that only 1 team in the last 39 SB’s has won that did not have a top 10 defense in at least one of the 3 categories.
"Skol pa fiskande"
because both...
indicate you are controlling the Line of Scrimmage. That’s where it starts and ends.
I BELIEVE...
by ArizonaVikingsFan on Dec 3, 2009 7:05 PM CST up reply actions
Great Post
Very well done – good work! Thanks for putting in the effort.
GO VIKES!!!!!!!
Aikman Rankings
Does anyone know where to find up to date Aikman ratings?
For you stat lovers: What are the variables that are included in the Aikman ratings and do you think this is a better measuring stick for offenses and defenses compared to total yards which I believe is the only factor currently used to measure ranks?
Interesting Statistical Fact
Since 1971, the team that has had the better run defense ranking has won the superbowl matchup 74% of the time, while the team with the better overall defense has won 69% of the time.
The Team which either had the better overall defensive ranking or the better run defense ranking has won 90% of the time.
Right now, the only team with a better run defense than the vikes is the Steelers and the only teams with better total defenses than MN are Jets, Packers, Steelers, Giants, Broncos, Bengals and Redskins.
Only four of those will even likely be in the playoffs (Packers, Steelers, Broncos and Bengals). I have a feeling that the Chargers maybe able to represent the AFC as they look to be coming on strong. And I feel pretty good about either us not having to play the packers again or us beating them yet again. Allen just really gets up for those games.
So, if the vikes get to the superbowl, they have a pretty good likelihood of winning. There are a lot of ifs in this theory and one injury can severely impact any teams play, but it does make me feel pretty confident about our team’s ability if given the opportunity.
by TheEvilProfessor on Dec 4, 2009 1:02 PM CST reply actions
to clarify
if your team has the better run defense or if you don’t at least have the better overall defense you win 90% of the time.
by TheEvilProfessor on Dec 4, 2009 1:03 PM CST up reply actions
The only years that the
team that had either the better run defense, of if not at least had the better overall defense lost were the 1981 SB with Oakland over Philly, the 1999 SB with Denver over Atlanta, 2002 SB with NE over St Louis and 2007 with Indy over Chicago.
Please note that the years would be the year the game is actually played….not the season.
by TheEvilProfessor on Dec 4, 2009 1:11 PM CST up reply actions
Ironically
all of these victories coincided with great QB stories.
1981 – Jim Plunket’s great revival from Heisman and ROY to being waived…to winning the SB.
1999 – John Elway going out on top.
2002 – The birth of Tom Brady the legend (or future legend)
2007 – The validation of Peyton Manning.
by TheEvilProfessor on Dec 4, 2009 1:16 PM CST up reply actions
Interesting
and thanks for pointing out that the years provided in the chart were the years the SB was played. Sorry if this caused any confusion.
"Skol pa fiskande"
What does the Offense have to do with it.
I think back to the “greatest show on earth” and wonder if there is any statistical measure of how a great defense coupled with a poor offense (Ravens) or a great offense coupled with an average defense (St.Louis) works out. In other words would the fact that the Vikes have both a good offense and defense rate them higher than other teams?
It would seem to?
Interesting that we have three QBs having great years….Favre, Manning, and Brees….
The X factor here may be which of the two QB can overcome their less than stellar/statistically requisite defenses to get a W?
In NO case, they would have to beat these statistics twice, first in the NFC Championship game, then again in the SB….
That may be made easier if their opponent WAS Indy, since they too are not at the statistical standard….
For the Vikings, I can only think it would help our chances statistically….We have Favre that is having a record-setting year, AND a good run defense and adequate secondary defense…
For the moment though, the focus is still Sunday night…Silver has them winning….He does not give up on his disbelief in the Vikes no matter how we have performed, and hoping that GB gets back into it!
I would rather be IN the Arena than watching from the stands...That is my life!
* Read Teddy Roosevelt's "Man in the Arena" if you need further explanation...
by vikingfanfrom afar on Dec 4, 2009 2:56 PM CST up reply actions
LOL
I hope so!
Nice play on words….
I would rather be IN the Arena than watching from the stands...That is my life!
* Read Teddy Roosevelt's "Man in the Arena" if you need further explanation...
by vikingfanfrom afar on Dec 5, 2009 8:15 AM CST up reply actions
You give me too much credit
in my math prowess. While I enjoy examining statistics, my knowledge formulating OLS regression analyses is much too weak.
"Skol pa fiskande"
Holy Schmoley
All greek to me! Just tell me if we’re goiing to win!
SKOL!
I would rather be IN the Arena than watching from the stands...That is my life!
* Read Teddy Roosevelt's "Man in the Arena" if you need further explanation...
by vikingfanfrom afar on Dec 5, 2009 8:46 PM CST up reply actions
Greek Heck!
Its Hieroglyphics to me, what in the "Blue Blazes is OLS regression? Maybe someone could explain it to us lay people.![]()
"What is best in life?"
"To crush your enemies, to see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentations of their women."
It's teh slope of a function
Well that’s completely wrong and right at the same time. It’s working out numerical relationships. Which once again means nothing.. Crap.. It’s seeking to know what could happen based on what has happened. You take what has happened formulate it then use that formula to derive what could happen based on some knowledge that you have. Sort of like algebra but for stats.
I have now completly confused myself and I actually do these things… Craptastic.
wow
I was a little surprised. These stats are based on the regular season, so a team getting hot going into the playoffs may does not really factor in. It is only a reflextion of how well then consistantly played in relation to the result of the SB. I wonder if just the play off numbers were tallied and compared, would the result be the same. My feeling is yes, or the results would not be as there were.
cool post
it is better to be thought of as dumb then to open your mouth and remove all doubt.
Ben Franklin
by montana vikes fan on Dec 6, 2009 1:10 AM CST reply actions
Turnovers
Although I’m a believer in winning the turnover battle, you cannot base your defensive strategy on that.
There’s always that chance that you run into a team that doesn’t turn the ball over much. If you can’t stop them with a solid defense and aren’t getting the turnovers, then what?
The Vikings are playing solid defense right now and I’ll take a solid defense. A solid defense gives you a better chance of winning the turnover battle, plus the ability to stop the opposing offense if need be.
We can score with the best of them, and we have the defense best capable of stopping an opposing offense out there. The Vikings are a dangerous team right now, as long as they can keep their focus.
The Minnesota Vikings - Undefeated in the Playoffs at Lambeau Field!
Very nicely done
Thanks for putting in the effort to bring this to us, Noble Savage. It may not satisfy everyone’s notion of perfect statistical analysis, but it gives us a good understanding of the point being made. :)
Ah, ah,
We come from the land of the ice and snow,
From the midnight sun where the hot springs blow.
The hammer of the gods will drive our ships to new lands,
To fight the horde, singing and crying: Valhalla, I am coming!
SKOL!

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