The "Great" Fumblin' Bumblin' Peterson? (UPDATED)
by David Taylor on Dec 31, 2009 10:02 AM CST
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PrintFor everyone that barks about Adrian Peterson's fumbling problem saying "bench him," "trade him," or "you can't consider him one of the greats," let's take a look at the numbers.
I recently put in the research on this for a response to a user at WCG, so I figured I'd put the information out there for you Vikings fans to ponder upon. I'm gonna change the content up a small bit for this fan post, to make it relevant to your site, but the analysis will remain the same.
Kris Kross will make you jump, jump...
Adrian Peterson – 3 years, 20 fumbles: Avg. 6.6 fumbles per year
Jim Brown – 9 years, 57 fumbles. Avg: 6.3 fumbles per year
Walter Payton – 13 years, 86 fumbles: Avg. 6.6 fumbles per year
Barry Sanders – 10 years, 41 fumbles: Avg. 4.1 fumbles per year
OJ Simpson – 11 years, 62 fumbles: Avg. 5.6 fumbles per year
It’s important to note that Brown’s first four seasons were played when the league was at a 12 game schedule, and the last five were at 14 game schedule. Walter played three seasons under the 14 game schedule and Simpson never played more than 14 games in a season, even after the 16 game schedule was put into place. Meaning, even these numbers are a bit padded for some.
So, let’s look more closely, at fumbles per game:
Adrian Peterson – 46 games, 20 fumbles: Avg. 0.43 fumbles per game (from 0.44 fpg)
Jim Brown – 118 games, 57 fumbles: Avg. 0.48 fumbles per game
Walter Payton – 190 games, 86 fumbles: Avg. 0.45 fumbles per game
Barry Sanders – 153 games, 41 fumbles: Avg. 0.27 fumbles per game
OJ Simpson – 135 games, 62 fumbles: Avg. 0.45 fumbles per game
EDIT: Per request, I've added in yards per touch (both career and after the first three seasons) in the comments section below.
EDIT II: I've updated the stats above to include AP's final game and updated the rest in the comments section (01/08/10).
Besides the anomaly that was Barry Sanders (and Gale Sayers, who I left out), Peterson is right on tap with some of the best running backs to ever play the game. I'm not saying that he shouldn't work on it, he should. But to say that he can’t be compared to some of the greats or that he should be benched “because of his fumbles” is ill advised, that’s all.
In retrospect, Matt Forte averages 3.5 fumbles per year, and 0.26 fumbles per game, that’s better than the entire group, including Sanders. But who’d you rather have? Personally, I like Forte and think he’s a decent NFL back, but I’d take AP in the drop of a hat. No questions asked.
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Note: As most everyone knows, I'm a die hard Bears fan who frequents this site on the regular and has built a solid rapport with some of the people here. I'm not posting this to bash Forte, or the Bears, and would hope that all would remain respectful, if only for this thread. My intention of posting this is purely as a way to show you that it's never as bad, or good, as it seems. Good day, and SKOL Bears! ;)
This FanPost was created by a registered user of The Daily Norseman, and does not necessarily reflect the views of the staff of the site. However, since this is a community, that view is no less important.
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Forte
I like Forte. He is a solid NFL back. Good draft pick. They needed to use him more in the passing game this year, Cutler is probably not a big fan of the RB dump off pass and the swing out of the backfield. The Bears should look at Chester Taylor this offseason, but they have a lot of other issues that need to be addressed I suppose. I dont know how the Bears didnt have a legitamite back up RB to help Forte, especialy aftert he had so many touches last season. I mean, you can find good running backs on the street and these clowns are rollin with Garret Wolfe and adrian peterson.
The Bears need to clean house and it needs to start up top. Thompson needs to go or Jerry Angelo at the very least. They have run that organization into the ground.
As for Peterson’s fumbles, you just take the good with the bad. Please break it down by fumbles per touches.
When the Bears drafted Forte,
I originally thought they reached, and still kind of do. Most draft-niks projected him with a mid third round grade, and yet the Bears chose him in the second. Maybe they thought he was the best available and he wouldn’t have been available at the next pick, I dunno. However, I’m happy to have him on the team and will be even happier once we get our line shored up, as will he, I’d bet.
And I’ll agree that he could have been utilized more this season, but his numbers aren’t that much different from last years. He had 477 receptions last season, and has already had 448 this year, and an average 29 ypg in both seasons. So, in reality, he’s really not that far off. There’s a good post over at WCG about this, if you care… link’ers.
I’d love to have a Chester Taylor compliment though, and I’ve lobbied for him before on these boards. Although, I’d be highly surprised if he didn’t resign. And we had Kevin Jones, who got hurt. Garrett Wolfe (who the owners adore for some reason) who got hurt. And our Adrian Peterson (who’s had a decent career in Chicago) who also, you guessed it, got hurt. Kahlil Bell has done an admirable job though, and has proven to be a decent compliment. Although your boy Ian Johnson does intrigue me.
Not sure who Thompson is, but I think Angelo’s time is coming to an end. Not this year, but soon. I also don’t believe Lovie’s a goner, but we’ll see. I personally think that Ron Turner is gonna be the fall guy this year and we’ll get a Jeremy Bates type to run our offense, but that’s all speculation.
I’ll see what I can do about the per touches thing… I was thinking this was good enough analysis, but you Vikings fans! ;)
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"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox
by David Taylor on Dec 31, 2009 10:58 AM CST up reply actions
I’m surprised Forte’s reciving number are so similar to last season. If you remember, in both games vs. the Vikings last year they bears split forte out wide in the red zone and got a match on a LB. Both times resulting in a TD (I blame the coaching for the 2nd game TD). Have they split him out this year at all? He really is a talented receiver.
Chester Taylor will not resign. He will be a starting RB next year somewhere. Every team should have an Ian Johnson on their practice squad. Thats what I’m saying about the Bears. There are good RBs all over the place, its not hard to find a guy that can make one cut, hit the hole, and keep the feet moving. They have done nothing to bring in young talent and instead have watched a once lucky superbowl team deteriorate before their eyes.
I live in chicago and listen to a lot of sports talk radio. Nobody knows if Lovie will be fired. If he is though and I am the Bears, I go out and try to get Bill Cowher. I think he more than Shannahan and the other avialable coaches personifies what the Bears organization is all about.
For you...
Adding in yards per touch (rushing and receiving):
Adrian Peterson – 988 touches, 20 fumbles: One fumble every 49 touches
Jim Brown – 4,858 touches, 57 fumbles: Avg. One fumble every 85 touches
Walter Payton – 8,367 touches, 86 fumbles: One fumble every 97 touches
Barry Sanders – 3,314 touches, 41 fumbles: One fumble every 80 touches
OJ Simpson – 2,607 touches, 62 fumbles: One fumble every 42 touches
He loses some ground here, but he’s still above Simpson. But, no matter, like you said, take the good with the bad. And he has a ton of the good.
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"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox
by David Taylor on Dec 31, 2009 11:19 AM CST up reply actions
And to go even deeper...
Let’s take look at each players first three seasons:
Adrian Peterson – 988 touches, 20 fumbles: One fumble every 49 touches
Jim Brown – 805 touches, 16 fumbles: Avg. One fumble every 50 touches
Walter Payton – 921 touches, 30 fumbles: One fumble every 31 touches
Barry Sanders – 978 touches, 19 fumbles: One fumble every 52 touches
OJ Simpson – 545 touches, 19 fumbles: One fumble every 29 touches
Basically showing he’s still right there with the big names. Bottom line, the guy is still young and has some amazing talent. Brown, Payton, Sanders and Simpson all got better at protecting the ball as they got older. So too can Peterson.
Not to mention the guy runs like Walter did.
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"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox
by David Taylor on Dec 31, 2009 11:34 AM CST up reply actions 3 recs
Yeah he reminds me of Walter more than any other back I've seen
And I loved watching Payton running that ball.
well you have to consider some of that list played shorter seasons
The time for reckoning has come, and we already have the answer
Let's have a looksee.
First three seasons breakdown:
Adrian Peterson – 14, 16, 15* (21.95 touches per game)
Jim Brown – 12, 12, 12 (22.36 touches per game)
Walter Payton – 13, 14, 14 (22.46 touches per game)
Barry Sanders – 15, 16, 15 (21.26 touches per game)
OJ Simpson – 13, 8, 14 (15.57 touches per game)
*Obvious, I know, but AP still has one game to go this season.
All of their touches, besides Simpson, are right at 22 per game. So, like Vreeland said, you have to take all things into consideration when looking at the final numbers.
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"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox
Brown, Payton, Sanders and Simpson all got better at protecting the ball as they got older.
This is what I’m banking on. We all remember how publicly lambasted Tiki Barber was when fumbles were his big vex, and he fixed that problem and his career blew up. Peterson will not be a guy who fumbles away his chance to be truely great, I’m sure of it.
If you can't laugh at yourself... Who can you laugh at?
The Packers, that’s who.
-- The almighty Manimal
Great job smudgers.
Thanks for putting in the effort and for posting it over here. I think the fumbles/touch stats are much more revealing and show why the Viking fans have been critical. The first 3 years stats however, are very interesting. I did not remember Payton having the butter fingers in his early career. I have no doubt Peterson will improve.
Oh yeah, rec’d.
"Skol pa fiskande"
Emmitt Smith for comparison - the sure-handed guy
First off, great post Smudgers. I’m hoping AP gets this worked out. And the SKOL B*ars things was hilarious.
Emmitt Smith, for comparison:
Career – 15 seasons, 226 games, 4409 rushing attempts + 515 passing rec = 4924 touches, 61 fumbles.
4.06 fumbles per year
0.27 fumbles per game
One fumble every 81 touches
First three years:
1111 touches, 19 fumbles
One fumble every 58 touches.
Emmitt compares favorably with the best in this bunch in each method of measurement. Walter’s 1 fumble per 97 touches is significantly better though – man(!) did Wawa every have a lot of touches during his career. I guess I remember quite a few years where da’ Bears had no one else to hand off or throw to though.
put a body on 'em
Stay Healthy
If Adrian Peterson is able to avoid a serious injury, he will end his career as one of the greatest running backs to ever play the game. If he can play 12-13 years he will hold the all-time rushing title. He has everything, skill, natural talent, speed and desire and his head is in the right place at all times. Forget Monday night in Chicago Adrian, you have won and will continue to win more games for the Vikes this year and in the coming years.
by TexasViking on Dec 31, 2009 10:42 PM CST up reply actions
I've seen this breakdown of the greats' fumble numbers before
but never broken down as far as you went Smudgers. Thanks for taking the time to post your research over here. It is much appreciated.
Chiggity check yourself before you rec’d yourself
If you can't laugh at yourself... Who can you laugh at?
The Packers, that’s who.
-- The almighty Manimal
Thanks.
And per your “chiggity check,” I changed the jump break to have it, somewhat, fit the theme. ;)
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"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox
by David Taylor on Dec 31, 2009 1:54 PM CST up reply actions
WOW! Great work smudgers
Rec’d. I think the “Bench him” folks are a small and lately, vocal minority. Nobody with any sense would bench a Pro Bowl RB. BTW, your Bears played a great game Monday, I just wish it hadn’t been against us, for the love of Ditka.
"Is it normal to wake up in the morning in a sweat because you can't wait to beat another human's guts out?" -Joe Kapp
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Dec 31, 2009 2:07 PM CST reply actions
"for the love of Ditka."
Excellent touch, my friend.
I agree, they played great for most of the game. That second half was starting to get brutal, but I can’t complain with half the starting defense either in street clothes or on a stretcher.
About the benching thing… I just don’t get it. We get the same thing with Cutler, even though we traded so much to get him, he has a huge upside and plays great when given more than a half second to throw. I’m guessing this “instant gratification” crowd will never go away, but if this helps eduficate some of them, it was all worth it.
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"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox
by David Taylor on Dec 31, 2009 2:29 PM CST up reply actions
In my defense
I wasn’t saying bench him for the whole game, just start him off on the bench to piss him off so he starts running angry at the beginning. He’s a lot more fun to watch when he runs angry.
When you go to somebody's house, you don't crap on their floor. Being a fan of one team does NOT give you license to be a dick to fans of another.
Corollary: When people are visiting your house and behaving themselves, them being a fan of a different team is NOT a reason for you to piss in their beer.
Brought to you by Carl's Jr.
by Robert Rence on Dec 31, 2009 3:00 PM CST up reply actions
He sure is
more fun to watch when he’s running angry. However I wonder if that sometimes leads to fumbles?
by iowacubfan69 on Jan 1, 2010 10:25 AM CST up reply actions
Your dedication to analysis and breaking down the stats never ceases to impress me.
Thanks for the awesome post Smudgers.
When you go to somebody's house, you don't crap on their floor. Being a fan of one team does NOT give you license to be a dick to fans of another.
Corollary: When people are visiting your house and behaving themselves, them being a fan of a different team is NOT a reason for you to piss in their beer.
Brought to you by Carl's Jr.
No problem.
This one wasn’t too bad. The explanation of the Salary Cap that I posted yesterday at WCG almost KO’d me. I stopped in the middle of writing it three times. And thanks for the kind words.
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"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox
by David Taylor on Dec 31, 2009 5:47 PM CST up reply actions
Forte V. Peterson
Its not even a discussion, but AP’s fumbles have rarely cost the Vikings a win. It is too bad it did on Monday.
Great Post
Thanks Smudgers. You’ve reinstilled my confidence in Peterson!
"Speak softly and carry a big stick; you will go far." Theodore Roosevelt
wow,
a super classy bears fan.
but please smudgers, no more “SKOL” bears.
thanks for a great post.
by indianavikesfan on Jan 1, 2010 10:09 PM CST reply actions
Rec'd
dude, this is awesome
Im impressed with the work you’ve done here
Comparing only to players that started playing 20-50 years ago seems kinda pointless
it’s a different game now.
heh?
I wouldn’t consider the comparison pointless. Especially when it came about by someone saying, “he fumbles too much so you can’t compare him to guys like Jim Brown.” I think the comparison shows that you can, allz I’m sayin’ bra!
And a carry is a carry is a carry in the NFL – game being different or not. Maybe we eat different types of pudd’n, but I say it’s valid. Sorry you no likey. Hope you’re having a wonderful new year!
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"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox
Nicely done smudgers
As folks have noted, a very classy thing to do, thank you :)
Ah, ah,
We come from the land of the ice and snow,
From the midnight sun where the hot springs blow.
The hammer of the gods will drive our ships to new lands,
To fight the horde, singing and crying: Valhalla, I am coming!
SKOL!
Cool post man. After the game against the Bears, there were people on this site saying you guys should trade AP or bench him!? I’m sure they were just saying it out of frustration but trading him or benching him would be ridiculous. AP runs the ball like no one else in this league. When you run as hard as he does your going to fumble the ball. I think the 30+ yard runs where he breaks 3-4 tackles are worth 6 fumbles a year don’t you guys? If not, I’m sure the Packers could offer up a nice trade for him :) haha.
Hmmm...
Peterson vs. Rodgers – that’s interesting! I think I’d take Peterson… I think.
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"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox
by David Taylor on Jan 8, 2010 12:08 PM CST up reply actions
Running backs are a dime a dozen
sure not many are as good as Peterson, but the upside here is that Rodgers is a LOT better than TJ. While I don’t think the difference between Peterson and Chester Taylor is that much (Not saying that AP isn’t much better than Taylor but just not as much as Rodgers is over TJ)
Plus finding QB’s is rediculously tough for every team but Green Bay.
I get what you're saying...
But HOF-caliber running backs are equally difficult to find. Is Rodgers in the top two at his current position? No. Is Peterson? Absolutely.
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"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox
by David Taylor on Jan 8, 2010 12:56 PM CST up reply actions
If you really think RBs like AD are a "Dime a dozen"
You’re crazy.
"Is it normal to wake up in the morning in a sweat because you can't wait to beat another human's guts out?" -Joe Kapp
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Jan 8, 2010 1:38 PM CST up reply actions
Not stating that he's a dime a dozen
but decent running backs sure are. Look around the league. Now pro bowl caliber qb’s are pretty darn rare. I’m not saying it would be easy to replace AD, by no means I am saying that we will notice a drop in productivity with Taylor but we will notice a whole lot of upswing with rodgers vs TJ.
This is a mental excersize of course, I would not trade AD. He has shown a remarkable interest in this team and is a player I think the team should keep
Haha I didn’t have that in mind but that’s kind of an interesting thing to think about.
by packallday555 on Jan 8, 2010 9:47 PM CST up reply actions
Good Post
I’d be interested in Turnovers to Touchdown ratio – same as we tend to compare QBs.
Below.
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"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox
by David Taylor on Jan 8, 2010 12:51 PM CST up reply actions
All stats updated to include final game, and more…
Fumbles per touch: rushing and receiving (career):
Adrian Peterson – 998 touches, 20 fumbles: One fumble every 50 touches
Jim Brown – 4,858 touches, 57 fumbles: Avg. One fumble every 85 touches
Walter Payton – 8,367 touches, 86 fumbles: One fumble every 97 touches
Barry Sanders – 3,314 touches, 41 fumbles: One fumble every 80 touches
OJ Simpson – 2,607 touches, 62 fumbles: One fumble every 42 touches
Fumbles per touch (first three seasons):
Adrian Peterson – 998 touches, 20 fumbles: One fumble every 50 touches
Jim Brown – 805 touches, 16 fumbles: Avg. One fumble every 50 touches
Walter Payton – 921 touches, 30 fumbles: One fumble every 31 touches
Barry Sanders – 978 touches, 19 fumbles: One fumble every 52 touches
OJ Simpson – 545 touches, 19 fumbles: One fumble every 29 touches
Touches per game (first three seasons):
Adrian Peterson – 14, 16, 16 (21.70 touches per game)
Jim Brown – 12, 12, 12 (22.36 touches per game)
Walter Payton – 13, 14, 14 (22.46 touches per game)
Barry Sanders – 15, 16, 15 (21.26 touches per game)
OJ Simpson – 13, 8, 14 (15.57 touches per game)
• • •
Games / Touches / Yardage / Touchdown / Fumble comparison* (first three seasons):
Adrian Peterson – 46 games, 998 touches, 5,313 total yards, 41 touchdowns, 20 fumbles
Jim Brown – 36 games, 805 touches, 4,181 total yards, 42 touchdowns, 16 fumbles
Walter Payton – 41 games, 921 touches, 4,552 total yards, 36 touchdowns, 30 fumbles
Barry Sanders – 46 games, 978 touches, 5,391 total yards, 47 touchdowns, 19 fumbles
OJ Simpson – 35 games, 545 touches, 2,571 total yards, 15 touchdowns, 19 fumbles
* All numbers including both rushing and receiving.
On a side note, did you know Barry Sanders NEVER, in his ten year career, had a season below 1,115 yards rushing and 1,320 yards from scrimmage. And those “low” numbers came in his 1993 season where he only played 11 total games. Oh, and he did that while playing for the Lions! Jeebus, I knew he was good, but not that good?!?
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"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox
Yeah, he was that good...
and a lot of fun to watch. He was like the Fran Tarkington of running backs. He could scramble around from one side to the line to the other looking for a hole to shoot through and then he’d be gone.
"What is best in life?"
"To crush your enemies, to see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentations of their women."
yeah... my God.
I miss Barry. He was a joy to watch and always gave us a reason to complain about poor tackling.
I BELIEVE...
by ArizonaVikingsFan on Jan 8, 2010 1:04 PM CST up reply actions
The shoes and jockstraps...
of hapless defenders littered the field.
Check out the Cowboy at 2:01, he looks lost. “Where did he come from, I thought thought the play was over.
”http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUVFZYYzHPU" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUVFZYYzHPU
"What is best in life?"
"To crush your enemies, to see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentations of their women."
Darn it, lets try that again.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUVFZYYzHPU
"What is best in life?"
"To crush your enemies, to see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentations of their women."
The best player EVER...
to wear Hawaiian Blue.
I BELIEVE...
by ArizonaVikingsFan on Jan 8, 2010 1:25 PM CST up reply actions
The cuts...
It’s all in his shiftiness. But did you see the speed at 2:38? Wow, just wow!
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"Newbie, if the next two words out of your mouth aren't 'See ya' then the third word will be 'Oh my god. My crotch. You've punched me in my crotch." - Dr. Percival Ulysses Cox
And the lost art of the spin move...
He was the master.
"What is best in life?"
"To crush your enemies, to see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentations of their women."
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