Looking Ahead: #2 Seed, & the compromises it may take to get it.
by puddnhead on Dec 7, 2009 11:35 AM CST
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PrintFirst of all, let's get this out of the way: the sky is NOT falling.
OK, done. But, having said that, let's be sober about where we are. In particular, where we are relative to all that matters right now, seeding for the postseason. I am taking it as a given that we are in the playoffs. With ten wins, that seems pretty safe. I'm also not going to dwell too long on remote mathematical possibilities, and just assume we will win the division too.
So the overriding focus -- beyond the nuts and bolts of playing good football & getting banged up players healed -- is playoff seeding: #1, #2, #3, or #4?
Although the Saints do look very beatable (they should have lost too yesterday, and to a much, much worse red-clad team than we played, the Redskins), it's not very productive to obsess too much on the #1 seed. That will only happen if the Saints collapse in the final four games, and even if it does happen, we will have no say in it, so let's just not even focus on it.
Right now we are positioned for #2 seed, still a very nice seeding, it gives us the all-important wild card weekend bye. With luck, that "beatable" probable #1 seed mentioned above, will be beaten in the divisional round, and the difference between #1 vs. #2 would be moot. But the #2 seed is very, very important to hang onto, and that should be our primary focus from here on out.
Right now our primary competition for the #2 seeding is ... unfortunately ... the team that just beat us. At 8-4, although the Cardinals are two games behind us, because they just gained the head-to-head tiebreaker, it's really only a one game lead for seeding purposes. We can drop one more game without any damage done, but after that, look out. Looking at the Cards' next three games, they have the 49ers, then the Lions, then the Rams. Let's just cut to the chase & give them three wins all the way through December. That means we cannot afford more than one loss in the next three games ... if we lose more than one of the next three games, we probably lose control of the #2 seed.
To underline how important that #2 seed is, consider this: Assuming Saints stay number one, and Cards overtake us for #2, and we are #3 (hard to see how we could fall all the way to #4 at this point), then that means:
- No bye, a game during the wildcard weekend
- Assuming we win, a road game in the divisional round to ... yes, Glendale AZ to face the Cardinals at home again, this time a rested Cardinals team (ugh)
I'm not sure how much higher the stakes for holding on to #2 could be.
So, what will it take? If the Cards do win out the next three as I expect, and we lose one (or, god forbid, two) of the next three (with Bengals at home then two road games against Bears and Panthers, a very real possibility) ... then week 17, Jan 3, 2010, becomes very interesting. .
We will be playing the Giants week 17. It will be at home, but if the Giants keep their act together between now & then, they will probably be very motivated in that game, perhaps even needing to win to take their division and/or get into the playoffs. Hopefully we win the next three and we don't have to worry about that game, but if we do lose one in between, that will be a dogfight we'll have to duke it out for.
What if we lose that dogfight, or we win it, but lose two of the other three remaining games? Then, assuming the AZ Cards take down the 49ers Lions & Rams as I expect ... then, right after the Giants game, we wait to watch AZ play in a late game that day, and hope they lose. So ... who's hands will our fate be in, in these likely scenarios? Which team will Jared Allen, Adrian Peterson, Brad Childress, and Brett Favre -- and all of us -- be cheering on in that game? Even though it may means this team may get into the playoffs where they might otherwise not?
The Green Bay Packers.
Oh, what an interesting day that will be, if this comes to pass ;) So, how many here think they can make themselves cheer the Packers in week 17, if it means keeping #2 seed & playoff bye for Vikings?
Also, please comment on what shape do you think we are in overall to hang onto the #2 seed, and how critical doing that is. How seriously are you worried about the Cardinals overtaking us & deposing us to the #3 seed,and how scared are you of the likely consequences (see above)?
This FanPost was created by a registered user of The Daily Norseman, and does not necessarily reflect the views of the staff of the site. However, since this is a community, that view is no less important.
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We WANT to play Green Bay in the playoffs
I think we match up better against them than almost any playoff caliber team
that and...
They’re an NFC North team…
I BELIEVE...
by ArizonaVikingsFan on Dec 7, 2009 12:04 PM CST up reply actions
History has shown it’s nearly impossible to beat a team three times in one year. They’ve seen your plays so many times, you basically have to start from scratch and redefine your tactics. And although technically we’ve also seen theirs just as much, their plays didn’t work so changing them is a given anyways.
History is re-written every single day
I’d love for the Vikings to have the opportunity to demonstrate that beating a team 3 times in a season is do-able.
Ah, ah,
We come from the land of the ice and snow,
From the midnight sun where the hot springs blow.
The hammer of the gods will drive our ships to new lands,
To fight the horde, singing and crying: Valhalla, I am coming!
SKOL!
Aye while I want to beat every team in teh NFC north like a red headed step child
I still root for them against other teams.. The tougher they are the tougher we look after all.
+10
Just like college…always root for teams in your division until you play them. It only strengthens your winning percentage in tie breakers.
by midnightwonder on Dec 7, 2009 12:19 PM CST up reply actions
Yes I can see supporting them in the depicted scenario....
How ironic!
I would rather be IN the Arena than watching from the stands...That is my life!
* Read Teddy Roosevelt's "Man in the Arena" if you need further explanation...
by vikingfanfrom afar on Dec 7, 2009 12:17 PM CST reply actions
Much like hopingthe skins would not step on their #angers yesterday....
Scheming for best positioning in the playoffs requires sacrifice!
Woe is us lol!
SKOL!
I would rather be IN the Arena than watching from the stands...That is my life!
* Read Teddy Roosevelt's "Man in the Arena" if you need further explanation...
by vikingfanfrom afar on Dec 7, 2009 12:19 PM CST up reply actions
We did it last year at one point.
Although I wasn’t very good at it. Every time the other team would score I would cheer and then realize I wasn’t supposed to. My wife thought it was pretty funny.
I don’t recall the scenario, but I remember it helped the Vikings somehow if the Packers beat someone… Maybe that was two years ago? I’m getting old.
A good coach makes his team better, he doesn’t wait for a better team to make him look good.
Your not getting old
Your just not drinking enough. Drinking kills off all your out of shape brain cells. this makes you smarter in the long run! Trust me!
LOL
That is funny…multipersonality Viking fan supports the enemy…..
I imagine wife must have enjoyed!
Got some practice last night w Redskins…
Made NO difference, felt doubly bad by time to go to work…
Today had a red card-like palor on skin, bit cheesy color on the cheeks, and was all purple with my actions/interactions with people….
Overall not one of my better days….
At least colorful….
What to do?
GO VIKINGS!!!!
I would rather be IN the Arena than watching from the stands...That is my life!
* Read Teddy Roosevelt's "Man in the Arena" if you need further explanation...
by vikingfanfrom afar on Dec 7, 2009 12:33 PM CST up reply actions
So I think I got this right, but:
If Arizona wins out we can only lose once.
If Arizona loses once more, we can only lose twice.
Hopefully we won’t have to resort to rooting for the Packers. But just in case, I’m going to doubly root for the Packers to lose tonight..
Let's Play The Cards
It’s a very tough call, but I’d have to go with traveling to Tempe.
We’ve beaten the Pack twice already. As fun as it would be to whoop them a third time this year, it’s the “easy” way out.
We went into AZ and got destroyed. If we’re a true SB team, let’s kick in the front door instead of waltzing in the back!
My two cents
I’d rather have the #2 seed and the Pack in the playoffs than the #3 seed or lower with them out.
I stumbled upon a quote by Alabama coach Nick Saban relayed by SI.com’s Stewart Mandel on his College Football Overdrive column. Saban was asked about Texas’ sub-par victory over Nebraska in the Big 12 championship, and he said:
I think you read much too much into one game," Nick Saban said of Texas’ Saturday-night escape. "Consistency in performance is the most difficult thing in this day and age. You don’t always play your best."
The Vikings are still 10-2, and even if the Packers beat Baltimore tonight and go to 8-4, the Vikes still have a defacto three (or 2.5) game lead with four to play, and their magic number to clinch the division is two. One more win guarantees a playoff spot. This team is going to go to the playoffs, and they’ll more than likely have a bye and a home playoff game.
Home field advantage would be nice, but when you look at the Vikings December schedule and compare it to New Orleans, it was a longshot to begin with.
So let’s focus on the #2 seed. The Vikings control their own destiny for that spot, and although they have a difficult finishing stretch, their most difficult game is this weekend against Cincinnati. They then travel to Carolina, then Chicago, then finish at home against the Giants, all winnable games. The Vikings will be favored in all four games, and I see them winning at least three. But let’s say the Vikes split their final four and end up at 12-4. To get bumped from the #2 spot, the Cardinals, currently the #3 seed, would have to run the table (which is very doable, with games against the Niners, Rams, Lions, and Packers), which would give them an identical 12-4 record and with the win last night a tiebreaker for the #2 seed.
With the finishing schedule of the Cowboys (opponent winning pct. Of .667) and Eagles (opponent win pct. .583), including a game against each other, it seems astronomical that the Vikings would be leapfrogged by either. The only other scenario that would kick the Vikings out of the #2 seed, then, is for the Packers to run the table, giving them a 12-4 record, and for the Vikings to go 1-3 over their last four games, which would give the Packers the division and relegate the Vikes to a wildcard. That also seems like a longshot, so the absolute worst I see happening to the Vikes is a #3 seed in the playoffs. Coming into the season, that’s very much in line with what we thought this team was capable of.
So the Vikes played a bad game. It’s one game, and it has very much been the exception, not the rule. The starting quarterback is still playing like an MVP, we still have the best running back in football, a top five receiving corps, a top 5 offensive line (if healthy), and a ferocious defense that will look to make amends for an embarrassing game. I don’t see them dropping lower than the #2 seed.
I almost feel sorry for the Bengals come Sunday.
SKOL!!
"We're used to Favre-a-palooza now. We're engulfed in Favre-a-palooza. It's not even Favre-a-palooza anymore. He's family now."
--Vikings TE Visanthe Shiancoe, on Brett Favre
I think we can hang on to the #2 seed.
if not, then I guess it’s safe to say the Chilly-extension was a bit premature. If I remember right, Chilly couldn’t take control last year neither. He needed the Bears to lose their last game in order for the Vikings to advance to the playoffs. I’m not exactly worried yet, but it would be nice to see Chilly and the Vikings take control and decide their own fate this year.
I’m certain the Cards will feed off that win last night, and win the rest of their games. They’ll be even harder to beat in the playoffs, especially at there house. So it’s up to the Vikings to learn from last night, and make the Cards (or whoever) travel to mpls in January.
+4
Agree…
At this point of the season we are definitely in control of that #2 spot, and just need to continue (with the one bad game aside) to perform as contenders….
No way we do not win out or possibly max one more loss prior to playoffs….This means that we indeed hold onto the spot…
It is ours to lose….
This team is looking at what happened and why, and there will be adjustments on Sunday….
As MilCardFan stated above I ALMOST (only almost) feel for those Bengals….
We are going to be out for blood (figuratively)…
As it should be – and that the rest of the season….
Now is the time of the year to separate the “men from the boys”….
The Vikes will show they are men….
Mark my words….
I would rather be IN the Arena than watching from the stands...That is my life!
* Read Teddy Roosevelt's "Man in the Arena" if you need further explanation...
by vikingfanfrom afar on Dec 8, 2009 10:10 AM CST up reply actions
"Contenders" could lose one of our next four games though
None of them are cakewalks. It’s Arizona that has the creampuffs, we don’t have any any more (even if you think the Bears are bad, I think playing in the cold at soldeir field evens that out a LOT).
I think if you read my OP, I’m not saying “what happens if we collapse.” I’m saying what if we lose one of the next three, something that is not that farfetched for even a good team to do. And if we do lose one … well my point that you just rejected out of hand actually does come to pass … the margin of safety on the #2 seeding is exhausted, and we are in must-win mode.
Do not reject out of hand....BUT certainly adds pressure....
Let’s see – tough games coming against Cinci, Bears (I agree will be a tough game, no matter how weak they are this year), and even the Panthers (cannot let down as we did against AZ, and I see danger of that with this game)….Plus Giants may very well be playing for a bunch this year when they arrive in the dome….
So we may indeed lose one more….I think I was hoping for a 13-3 season when we started….seemed reasonable….of course if I had my druthers, we would win out…The old adage any given Sunday though, and bad breaks, poor performance, etc. may come into play though…
Which team is most likely to get that W against us? Personally I would hope either Bears or Panthers (two teams at this point having no dog in the fight for playoff positioning)…but if we have to lose one more, guess best to do so against the Giants….agreeing with reasoning based on your post, would come AFTER we have secured the #2 spot…
If that L comes in the coming three weeks, yes as you state it will put us in that must win position, depending on how Arizona does (and do think they will win out)…Then that game against the Giants would be VERY important….a must win situation to keep the spot (again assuming Az wins out, which they probably will)…
Bottom line:
I hope Chilly and the team, with their week to week focus (is ok strategy), do not lose site of the possible scenarios and the role their weekly games (W/L) will have in the playoff position we end up with….and push hard to just win out….
It should help that we now have the focus away from us regarding (1) undefeated, (2) when will Favre have a down day/throw an INT (still do not think he played all that bad on Sunday, just was inevitable that another INT would come sooner or later – at least it came on a day when everything else almost was crappy too) and (3) Overly high expectations…
Let’s see…fun to speculate in any case, and certainly we can talk more from what is when the next three weeks are past…then for sure we will know how we stand…and yes I can root for the Packers if need be….I still would rather face them three times in a year than PHILI….maybe based on our W/L against Phili….
I would rather be IN the Arena than watching from the stands...That is my life!
* Read Teddy Roosevelt's "Man in the Arena" if you need further explanation...
by vikingfanfrom afar on Dec 9, 2009 4:50 AM CST up reply actions
If it's any consolation
the Packers will be rooting for us against the Giants in that final week since they will be fighting NY for a wild card spot.
I doubt that very much.
It’s possible, but GB has a 1 game lead and the tiebreaker on the Giants with 4 games to play, so the Giants would have to make up 2 games in 4 weeks to catch GB. Regardless, if the Giants make the playoffs they will likely do so at the expense of the Eagles, not the Packers, as the Giants play the Eagles again this week. If the Giants lose this week, they’re all but eliminated regardless of what GB does in Chicago. If the Giants win, they’ll have already caught the Eagles for their WC spot and they’ll had the Eagles another in-conference loss which would potentially give the Packers the tie-breaker on the Eagles, if it came to a tie. The best thing GB has going for it in the WC chase is that the Eagles and Giants play each other this week and the Boys and Eagles play each other in week 17. That’s 2 guaranteed losses for its primary competition, and they have a head to head tiebreaker on Dallas.
Even if GB only manages to go 2-2 over their last 4 games, the WC spot is all but theirs.
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Dec 8, 2009 7:38 AM CST up reply actions
#2 seed a must
The #2 seed is huge. Rest & get healthy vs. play a game that’s a must win with the possibility of injury. If this loss to the Cards is not a motivating factor for our team I’ll be very concerned. We just got our butt’s whipped. It’s time to refocus.
Clinch senarios?
Anybody know the clinching senarios for the Vikes? As in, if the Vikes win _ and the __ loses against __, the Vikings will clinch the ___ seed. I’m just curious to know if there is a senario in which that last game with the Giants won’t even matter and we can rest our starters. Heck, for that matter, is there one where the Bears game won’t matter either?
It's pretty basic math
I’ve essentially laid it all out in the post. Vikings win two of the last four, plus wither one more Viking win, or one Cardinal loss, and we clinch a top two seed.
There are more complicated scenarios how we clinch #2 with three losses, but that’s an uninteresting exercise to me. If anyone else wants to flesh it out, knock yourselves out.
If you want to know about getting #1, I’m not helping you. Like I said in OP, I think that’s unlikely, pointless, and distracts us from what we should be exclusively focusing on: locking up the #2.
Yes think speculating over #1 seed now is a waste of time/effort....
Unless we have several strokes of luck, that is out of the question….But it is not a death knoll for our chances in the playoffs by any means…If we have to play NO in their dome, I am sure there will be plenty of Viking fans…The noise will not be that much different than in ours…
Also this year with the exception of AZ, the Vikings have done fairly well on road games….Is the best shot we have at the moment….We for sure would be the underdogs for that matchup….Based on the years when we were favorites (and performed terribly) I almost would rather be the underdog….
Nothing to lose, we are supposed to lose, so we play our guts out and can win/move on…Best case scenario for me: NO get their reality slap, we get the surprise W, and NO watches the SB along with us fans as the Vikes go up against either Indy or the Chargers…Now THAT sounds good….let’s see…
I would rather be IN the Arena than watching from the stands...That is my life!
* Read Teddy Roosevelt's "Man in the Arena" if you need further explanation...
by vikingfanfrom afar on Dec 9, 2009 5:00 AM CST up reply actions
Well, looks like the results are about final
Over 1/3 would struggle to cheer the Packers in a game, even if their winning meant the Vikings getting #2,and the first week bye + second week home game that came with it, and the Vikings would not get if they lost.
Interesting. I really expected the results to be more lopsided.
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