Risk Vs. Reward

by footballninja on Feb 6, 2009 1:25 PM CST Comment 25 comments

Ok, so far everything that I have read since Matt Cassel was franchised has been about the risk of the Vikings making a serious move towards acquiring the services of Mr. Cassel.

First, you are all correct. Matt Cassel did take over, arguably, one of the best offenses of all time. With Randy Moss, Wes Welker, and a grade A offensive line. And was given game plans by the best coaching staff in the NFL.

Yes, his success could be in large part due to the situation by which he was thrust into.

Yes, the Vikings would have to compensate the patriots heavily, not 2 first rounders heavily, but heavily, to be able to *pry* Cassel away. (Side note: I believe Tom Brady to be on his way to a full recovery and hence the reasoning for the franchise is to make sure that the Pats can get full value for losing him, not so that they can ensure they can keep him.)

Yes, the Vikings would have to give Cassel a hefty multi-year contract.

Yes, there is no way of knowing for certain that Cassel can play at a high level outside of the Patriots system and personnel.

This all creates a huge risk. Money, time, other players. I think its fair to say, that most of us understand the risk...

...But...

Let us not forget about the potential reward. Matt Cassel could be the next face of quarterbacking in this league. He stepped into a pressure situation, after not truly playing since high school! Since HIGH SCHOOL! Think about that. And he stepped up. He stepped up big time. This could be an opportunity for the Vikings to pick up a true franchise quarterback. He might turn out to be a true superstar. That is a distinct possibility. It is. For real. It is.

So you have to ask yourself: How often does a possibility like this arise?

*cue Jeopardy music*

...Well.... Ummm... The draft? HA! Roll the dice three times on a top 5 pick and you would be lucky to get one QB who can step in his first 16 games and perform half as well as Cassel, even if you gave him that offensive talent...Seriously. You guys are gonna tell me that TJack coulda done that? HA! You're blinded by your own bias and hopes.

...Ok....How about free agency? Ummm... I can't really remember any QB off the top of my head that has hit free agency with this kind of upside...None... Maybe some at the bottom end of their career...but not young ones.

...Well... On other teams through a trade? Yes. Once in a while. Which is the situation we are looking at right now.

So, the question is, should the Vikings take a shot? Its a risk but there is certainly a potential reward. A huge reward. A reward that can thrust an entire organization towards greatness.

My guess is that the Vikes front office studies every bit of tape they have on this guy, every piece of information, puts together the puzzle, and tries to figure out exactly what their risk tolerance is. My guess is they will make an attempt at him. They will find the price they are willing to pay, and if they can snatch him for that they will, if they can't....Enter Jeff Garcia?...

And a little more...
For those of you who think I am giving Cassel too much credit... Remember, also, that he has learned from Tom Brady, Belichick, and the rest of his staff. This is a good thing. Kind of takes away the need for Chilly to try and coach some fundamentals of being a NFL QB, because he has already been coached them. And keep in mind, unlike Derek Anderson, most QB's get better with experience and a year under their belt. I mean, Cassel could just be at the beginning of a huge upward swing (I suppose thats the whole message of this post...). ALSO, if you listen to the *ahem* experts on espn you will hear all the time that QB'ing in the NFL is about alot of things, but when you break down all the Great QB's throughout the NFL they have one thing in common... The intangibles. The things that can't really be taught. They show up differently in every QB... Well, I ask you, do you think, getting thrust into a starting role on the first day of a season for the super bowl favorite, replacing one of the best QB's of all time, after not starting a game since high school, and throwing almost 3700 yards and 20+ TDs and leading your team to an 11-5 record qualifies as having something special? Some intangible skill set, ability, or mentality? I certainly believe it says something.

To me it says, potential. I say its worth a risk. A contract and some draft picks, risk. Double down, Roll the dice. Hope we roll the 7... If we hit, oh how nice it will be. If we miss, it will hurt. But, when all is said and done...its simply risk vs. reward.

This FanPost was created by a registered user of The Daily Norseman, and does not necessarily reflect the views of the staff of the site. However, since this is a community, that view is no less important.

0 recs | Comment 25 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Well, if we’re ever in a situation similar to New England’s, Cassel will definitely be helpful. And shouldn’t we be striving to reach that point? Without the whole spygate mess.

It’s been brought up that we could trade Chester Taylor for Cassel, in addition to a few draft picks. I’m thinking it’d take Taylor, a 2nd rounder and possibly a 3rd or 4th to get him. I’d reluctantly be for it. It’s a huge risk on the player who could end up like Derek Anderson. But you take a risk any time you sign a free-agent or draft a player that it may not work out. Personally I’d rather we make a run at him than watch the Bears or Lions nab him and have him turn out to be a good QB. Wouldn’t that just everyone sick to their stomachs?

I’m saying we should go for it, because like the OP, I’m thinking that the rewards for this move far outweigh the risks. I mean, we have needs, for sure, in the draft, but since this is a draft full of good tackles, we should be able to get away with a good one when our number comes up.

by Frost on Feb 6, 2009 2:48 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Although Chester is a fine compliment to Adrian and has unselfishly taken on the backup role after his outstanding first season with the Vikes, I think letting him go along with a second rounder and a lower peick is worth the risk to get Cassel. I know the risk is high, but the more I think about going into the season with what we have the more my risk taking mentality increases. If we do no trade for Cassel, then maybe we should trade for Anderson and sign Garcia and let them fight for the starting position. Wouldn’t that be something. To sign 2 of the noted QB’s….hmmmm.

"Skol pa fiskande"

by NobleSavage on Feb 6, 2009 4:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I hate the idea of trading away Chester… but he IS entering the last year of his contract and you know there is NO WAY he is going to resign with us anyway to continue a backup role. If we are able to use him to get a QB in here, then I say pull the trigger. However, I’m not even sure if the Pats would be interested in Chester (Although I DO feel that they need a RB… Maroney is solid when healthy, but he’s had durability issues throughout colelge AND the pros). We could then sign a lesser touted FA RB or draft one in the third of fourth round. It’s an interesting angle.

V-I-K-I-N-G-S! Skol Vikings, Let's Go!!

by TheViking83 on Feb 6, 2009 4:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Trade Taylor???

I can’t believe what I’m reading. Chester Taylor is a big part of the Vikings. I wouldn’t make that trade. Taylor is clutch on 3rd downs, both running and receiving. The NFL is about having at least 2 good backs. And that’s all the Vikes have right now.

And how does anyone know what Taylor wants to do? Maybe he’s content with being somewhere where he’s valuable, but not getting worn down as a primary back.

by newmexvike on Feb 6, 2009 10:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

No offense man,

But that last paragragh is nothing but wishful thinking. He spent 3-4 years as Jamal Lewis’ backup (not entirely sure how long it was, but it was somewhere in that ballpark). He then left Baltimore because he wanted to be a starter, and for that same reason came to Minnesota.

If he was content being a backup he would’ve stayed in Baltimore. If anything, he probably wants out of Minnesota even more than he wanted out of Baltimore because he’s not getting any younger. Running backs are notorious for slowing down when they hit 30. I’m sure Taylor is aware of that and wants to get his shot before his window closes.

In AP I trust

by FarvaForTheVikings on Feb 7, 2009 9:18 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I liked your take on the situation ninja. Really makes you think. I’ve been in the “It’s too much for a one-year guy” camp, but you make some convincing points.

I mean, what team wouldn’t love to go back in time and pry Tom Brady away from New England after he took over for Bledsoe if given the chance?? Perhaps we are seeing Brady version 2.0 in the making, and one team is gotta hit the jackpot. I guess when you boil it down… it’s no different then taking a QB with a top 5 pick in the draft. He’d be using up a 1st round pick and get a huge contract too, and he’s never even played 1 game on a Sunday. Cassell at least has an NFL resume now (Albeit, a small one).

For now I’m still saying “too much to give for the guy”, but if it happened, I could see myself coming around.

V-I-K-I-N-G-S! Skol Vikings, Let's Go!!

by TheViking83 on Feb 6, 2009 2:55 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Where We Are At

Signing Cassell is going require a long term, multi-million dollar deal. Having been franchised, will require the Vikings to send two first round draft picks to NE. That is quite a price tag.

Now, I believe NE will trade him and only franchised him in order to drive up his cost in the event they are able to move him. With that said, I highly doubt Chester Taylor and mid to late round picks would sway them to make the move. Running back just isn’t that important to their scheme (spread offense). And anyway, I don’t think he has proven himself to be of this value.

There are only a handful of franchise caliber quarterbacks in the league. The odds of Cassell developing into the next Brady or Palmer or (big brother) Manning are slim. I get the urgency many Norsemen feel as it pertains to the quarterback position, but I don’t think the team is in position to take the leap of faith required of this move.

by LoveHate on Feb 6, 2009 6:33 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

No no no

We are to close with this team we now have to winning the super bowl and all we need is a part or two. Signing Cassell would cost us cap space and draft picks to get those parts. His huge contract would eat up any other contracts we would like to sign this year and no 1st this year and next will set us back to same ol’ Vikings instead of us moving forward. We wait for NE to cut him or we sign a FA. By the way he would still have to learn the WCO which doesn’t happen overnite.

by nmvikesfan on Feb 7, 2009 12:45 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Major Puzzle Piece

I would agree with you if that missing piece ur talking about were a lineman or CB, but we are missing a qb. Thats a huge piece to be missing when we want to make a run at the superbowl.

by LAviking on Feb 8, 2009 10:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Deja Vu

All this talk about the Vikings needing a quarterback to go deep into the postseason reminds me of the early 1970’s teams that had a great defense but no one to pull the trigger on offense. Reenter Fran Tarkenton about this time of year in 1972 and the rest is history. True, we didn’t win the big one but we did make three more trips to the Super Bowl that if not for a reliable signal caller wouldn’t have happened. That being said, the difference between Sir Francis and Cassell is like night and day. We gave up three players and a first and second round pick for a man who was a proven veteran and one of the most respected players in the league. Even though Cassell is coming off a stellar season, the jury is still out on his body of work as a whole. If indeed the Patriots will be looking for a couple of 1st rounders for him, that’s a steep price to pay for a possible one year wonder who is unfamiliar with the WCO.

by purplegrey on Feb 7, 2009 4:09 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Roethlisberger

I’ve heard two different analysts compare Big Ben to Sir Francis, saying that Ben has the best situational awareness and ability to stay alive to wait for the opportunity, of any QB since Tarkenton. I never really saw it til I read that, then I started paying attention to what Ben was actually doing, beyond being an all-in-all very good young QB. Yeah, it’s there… made me grin.

I don’t expect the Vikes to be able to get him, of course. Any more than they’d be able get Penningon

by DCPurple on Feb 8, 2009 12:36 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

why...

does everyone think any team would have to pay two 1st round picks for Cassell? It would be a sign and trade deal. Just like the Vikings did with Allen last year.

The Patriots are kind of in a tough spot right now. They have 30% of their cap space tried up in 2 QB’s. They NEED to trade Cassell. The team that gets him is not going to give up anything near the two 1st round picks. The only thing that is going to drive up the price is the demand on Cassell. Teams are going to bid on him. All the Patriots have to do is sit back and wait for the offers to come rolling in!

by PurplePeopleEaters09 on Feb 7, 2009 4:43 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Signing Free Agents

When discussing the possibility of signing a free agent (franchised or not), starting with what it would cost to sign him as a free agent is a fair place to start, a baseline so to speak. NE has likely made the move to ensure they get something for him and could trade him for as little as they’d like. How likely is it that he’s let go for a second or third round pick?

Cassell is worth nowhere near the value in which the Vikings compensated the Chiefs for Allen (1st & two 3rds), being he is not nearly as proven an NFL commodity as Allen was. Gutting your draft for a second consecutive year on a player with as little information as there is available could bankrupt your future.

Rounding to the nearest 10% would require you to round down, they have 20% (23) of 09’s estimated cap space currently committed to the position. They don’t have to trade him if the offers aren’t rich enough. The Patriots are the model organization, they know what they are doing and aren’t at a disadvantage in any Cassell negotiations.

by LoveHate on Feb 7, 2009 10:34 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Nail On The Head

“Cassell is worth nowhere near the value in which the Vikings compensated the Chiefs for Allen” hits the nail right on the head. I don’t know that the Patriots will want two 1st round picks for Cassell. My words were “if indeed the Patriots will be looking”…My point was that the team gave up a lot for Fran Tarkenton and it paid off. You can’t compare one of the all time greats to a possible “one year wonder” and if the Pats want to sit back and wait on a bidding war then the Vikings shouldn’t even be considering him. The team can spend its money more wisely on other pressing needs than to possibly piss it away on a crap shoot. Good post LoveHate.

by purplegrey on Feb 7, 2009 7:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

actually...

I read they Patriots have about 29% of their cap used on the QB position. Maybe that’s all of them, maybe that’s just Brady and Cassell. Either way the Patriots are not going to hold on to Cassell and every team knows it. Because every team knows the Patriots need to get rid of Cassell, they are at a serious disadvantage. Basic business 101.

Im not saying the Vikings would pay for Cassell what they did for Allen last year. In fact if they did, that would be stupid. I only said that because most people have it in their heads that Cassell would require two 1st round picks. That’s just not true.

by PurplePeopleEaters09 on Feb 7, 2009 3:09 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Maybe what we need is simply better recievers. If Cassel turns out to be not so good elsewhere, you can easily credit his recievers for making things alot easier for him. We should definitely sign or draft somebody who will upgrade our passing game.

by Frost on Feb 8, 2009 4:33 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

That Too

I understand that Bolden is unhappy with the Cards and wants to go elsewhere…. He’s not as good as Fitzgerald, but he’s close and could get better.

But that won’t be enough…. you need someone who can get the ball there, preferrably ahead of the WR so that it’s a run-to, not a slow-down.

by DCPurple on Feb 11, 2009 11:07 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Fran Tarkenton

The difference between Cassel and Tarkenton is that Fran was a qb that we drafted and traded and then traded for again. He was a proven comodity, we knew that he could play for us as well as other teams.
Taking a chance on a guy like Cassel could cripple our franchise. Its just not worth it. Losing first round and third round picks in consecutive years can kill a franchise. Not to mention all the money we will have to pay him. I know alot of us are frustrated about the QB situation, but its just not worth the risk.

by mattscards77 on Feb 8, 2009 4:47 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Agree

by purplegrey on Feb 8, 2009 6:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

We’re taking a chance on any QB we’ll be starting this season. Like I’ve said before, with a couple good wideouts, Cassel has shown that he can be a respectable quarterback. He might struggle a bit here because our recievers aren’t anywhere near Wes Welker and Randy Moss, but he at least has shown some very promising flashes.

Sometimes you just have to take a gamble. That’s how you win big.

by Frost on Feb 9, 2009 9:03 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Risk Risk

Anything up to the next two 1st round draft picks (including this year’s) is worth it, IF we get the right QB… If we don’t, we’ll be hearing the comparisons to the HW trade again and again and again.

by DCPurple on Feb 11, 2009 11:10 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Or lose big

Remember H.Walker? 3 SB titles for the Cowboys and nothing for the Vikes. That’s what we would be doing if we trade for Cassel, setting up NE for another SB(s) run while our stars get old then it’s time to rebuild again. TJack showed some very promising flashes too. Why not bring in some good wide outs and a vet QB and make him earn a starting job and let NE stew in their new cap dilema?

by nmvikesfan on Feb 10, 2009 1:40 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

do u really think the vikings are the only team interested in cassell?

by PurplePeopleEaters09 on Feb 10, 2009 2:04 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Umm, NE is going to be making a SB run whether somebody trades for Cassel or not. They’re simply contenders, their second stringers are about as good as other team’s starters, seeing how they had so many injuries this season and still wound up with an 11-5 record.

And I realize that Jackson had some good flashes. I’m still pulling for the guy. But who exactly are we going to turn to if he can’t cut it? Booty? No thanks. There’s no guarantee that a good vet QB will be available anyways. Might as well trade for Cassel just in case, and let the two battle it out in the preseason.

by Frost on Feb 10, 2009 1:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs