The Numbers vs. Brad Childress
In my humble opinion, a coach (or anyone, really) should be evaluated primarily in his area(s) of strength. I would never expect Chris Kluwe to convert every bad snap into a completed pass, just as I would not shun a free agent slugger from a baseball team for not being able to bunt well. Since Brad Childress had been touted as an offensive genius and a quarterback guru from his tenure with the Philadelphia Eagles (as QB coach and offensive coordinator), anyone should be able to look at his track record and make a solid case for him (if the information matches the hype) or against him.
The best information, then, is Donovan McNabb's performance at various times in his career and the Eagles' offensive ranks pre- and post-Childress (excluding his first year in Philadelphia when Donovan McNabb only started 6 games as a rookie).
A similar argument can be made that Gus Frerotte and Brad Johnson also performed worse than their career averages under Childress (2006 was Johnson's career-worst rating), although some or most of that could be attributed to age. In any case, Brad Childress has been responsible for the offensive performance (or at least the QB performance) with significant input regarding personnel and scouting decisions, offensive schemes and philosophies, and playcalling over the past 7+ years, even if he wasn't making 100% of the decisions himself.
Not that passer rating is everything, but it does tell us a story in Donovan McNabb's and Brad Childress's cases: In 2004, McNabb posted the highest rating of his career (with T.O. and Childress); however, 2006, 2007, and 2008 are his next 3 best ratings (without Childress, and with 2 receivers that Childress had either traded away for Billy Freakin' McMullen or passed on in the draft in 2008).
Donovan McNabb has also completed 60% of his passes since Childress left Philadelphia. 2004 was the only Childress year in which he completed 60+% of his passes.
In terms of TD:INT ratio, McNabb has achieved 2:1 or better 6x in his 9 full seasons of starting in the NFL. One of those years was 2004, and 3 of them were 2006-2008. In other words 100% of the time without Childress and only 50% with Childress, counting the T.O. year (less than 50% if excluding the T.O. year).
How have the Eagles and Vikings ranked offensiveely since 2000? (Passing yards and net yards per passing attempt are bolded to make the table more readable and to highlight his area of supposed specialty.)
Year: Pts, TotOffYds, 1stD, PassYds, NetYds/Att, RushYds, Yds/Att
while QB guru:
2000: 12, 17, 17, 20, 26, 15, 4
2001: 9, 17, 27, 20, 20, 14, 8
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while OC:
2002: 4, 10, 18, 19, 18, 7, 8
2003: 11, 18, 13, 20, 20, 9, 5
2004: 8, 9, 14, 7, 8, 24, 10
2005: 18, 19, 21, 8, 19, 28, 17
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Eagles free (at last) of Childress:
2006: 6, 2, 9, 3, 3, 11, 5
2007: 17, 6, 5, 10, 16, 8, 2
2008: 6, 9, 8, 6, 12, 22, 24
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Vikings under Childress:
2006: 26, 23, 26, 18, 26, 16, 14
2007: 15, 13, 19, 28, 19, 1, 1
2008: 12, 17, 18, 25, 18, 5, 6
As all not named Brad Childress or Zygi WIlf can see, the Eagles were never above average in both passing categories without T.O. while Childress was in Philly. Although Childress was touted as being knowledgeable of passing offenses, Childress's most productive offenses featured strong rushing attacks (at least in yards per attempt) and not very efficient passing games. The Childress era Vikings have yet to sniff the median as a passing offense despite bringing in veterans like Bobby Wade, Visanthe Shiancoe and Bernard Berrian. Yes, there is a small trend of improvement, and 18,18 would be somewhat close to the median (and his offense has not performed that well in Minnesota), but an offensive genius and QB guru should not need to hang his hat on almost being an average passing after 3 years.
By contrast, the Eagles have been 17th (median is 16.5 or 16 and 17) or better in ALL categories--with the exception of 2008's rushing ranks--in each season since being rid of Brad Childress. Overall, the Eagles have been a top 10 offense in all 3 categories all 3 years, and they only ranked that high twice while he was there (only in the Year of T.O. while he was OC). The Vikings have yet to crack the top 10 in points, total offensive yards, or first downs. Even with the league's best rushing offense, Childress and Bevell could not figure out how to take advantage of 8 in the box or score a few points by being less than 90% predictable to crack the top 10 overall. Were it not for one of the best rushing defenses in the league, the Vikings could muster no more than 6 wins per year in the Childress era.
And as if all of this weren't enough, the 2005 Eagles were the worst (25th) in giveaways during the Andy Reid era (lower numbers are better, ranking 1st meaning fewest giveaways). Zygi and the Vikings couldn't wait to hire him despite that.
Just what is the basis for Brad Childress's reputation as an offensive genius and QB guru, I wonder?
It should finally materialize this year. Not only should the Viking offense be at or above the median in most categories, but it should also rank 12th or better overall since 12 teams make the playoffs (and we want to be a real playoff team which can compete in the postseason rather than a one-and-done). The Vikings were in the playoffs in 2008 (with the 3rd highest payroll) and in 2005 (with the 9th highest payroll under Mike Tice). The 2009 Vikings are 2nd in payroll (so far), and the last 2 times Brad Childress coached such a team were in 2006 (6-10) and in 2004 (lost the Super Bowl). Maybe he had too much talent on those teams to work his magic, whatever that could be.
The Vikings should be real contenders to win the Super Bowl XLIV, and Brad Childress should be fired if they are not.
This FanPost was created by a registered user of The Daily Norseman, and does not necessarily reflect the views of the staff of the site. However, since this is a community, that view is no less important.
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So, except with seasons in whichTO was with the Eagles, under Childress as offensive coordinator, the were average at passing, yet we expect something more than league average now?
Gus Frerotte and Brad Johnson went from playing under Childress in their 15th and 13th years respectively to not seeing any significant (Johnson proved Romo’s value this past season) action for the rest of their lives and that points to Childress’ inabilities?
What evidence that can’t be accessed today existed in 2005 that would lend to Childress’ reputation for being a QB guru? Specifically, who did he coach at the position other than D. McNabb (and a number of former Vikings who won’t play in this league again)?
Maybe buying into the “HYPE” is at the root of the problem?
by LoveHate on Mar 4, 2009 4:45 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Yes
Buying into the hype was a lot of the problem, as there was no real evidence that he was an offensive genius or a QB guru, at least at the NFL level. I didn’t like the hiring (or Tice’s firing) at the time.
There is one positive trend which may exist in the data prior to 2006: he may have slightly overachieved with average or below average (team and/or offensive) payrolls. And by “overachieving”, I mean ranking 18th in several offensive categories with the 20th or 21st ranked payroll…not really that much.
by KC Viking on Mar 4, 2009 7:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
There is no hype about Childress' poor coaching.
None.
by Bjorno on Mar 4, 2009 4:49 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
Call me crazy, but, uhh, didn’t the Eagles win the most games in the NFL, maybe it was just the NFC, during Childress’ tenure there?
by Frost on Mar 4, 2009 5:41 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Crazy
Only if you care to believe that he was responsible for the great defensive performances.
Other beliefs you might want to consider: Trent Dilfer and/or Brian Billick’s offensive genius superpowers carried the 2000 Ravens to the Championship; Casey Anthony is 100% innocent; Rich Kotite must have been a GREAT NFL coach because he won 21 games in his first 2 years.
by KC Viking on Mar 4, 2009 7:45 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Also
…from 2003-2005, only 2 NFC teams had a .500+ record in each season: the Seahawks and Vikings.
That was the last thing Tice said in his final press conference as the Vikings’ head coach, and to this day, his record does speak for itself.
And we all know that the Eagles’ defense wasn’t the reason that they went 6-10 in one of those years…
by KC Viking on Mar 4, 2009 9:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
These anti-Childress threads are so stupid. He’s the coach, deal with it.
by mjschaefer on Mar 4, 2009 6:23 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
like the stats
I don’t like childress either. He is a horrible coach, and I can’t wait til he gets fired. Ihopefully it is this year, cause there are plenty of excellent coaches to be had next year. I don’t know why some certain people have a man crush on childress. There is too much talent on this team to be squandered with a “coach” like childress
by PurplePeopleEaters09 on Mar 4, 2009 8:30 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
It's not about liking him
I would like him a lot had the Vikings won the Super Bowl (or even made it to the NFC Championship game). The past would be the past in that case, but until he does something great, it will be nothing more than a continuation of his mediocre track record.
And let’s be honest, things could be worse. Not a lot worse, but worse nonetheless.
by KC Viking on Mar 4, 2009 11:35 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t blame it all on Childress since he didn’t hire himself after all. He was hired in a rush by a man that had no experience in running a football team. What can we expect, other than maybe he should have been fired by now since we’re probably seen enough to know that he doesn’t have a clue how to win more than a few games per season?
Without knowing what the rookie HCs will do, it’s easy for me to classify Childress in the worst 5 coaches in the NFL. But let’s also remember the only other men to interview for the job: Al Saunders, Ted Cotrell, and Jim Caldwell. So it’s not too far-fetched to imagine that we wouldn’t be much better off with any of the other choices.
He should have been questioned from the beginning for the facts that: one, the only QBs he supposedly “developed” were a top 5 sure thing pick, and a guy who had his share of good games and couldn’t do shit in another system. And, two, as an offensive coordinator, his HC didn’t trust him to call the plays.
Some guys interview well, and obviously Childress is one of them. He fooled Zygi but now nobody is fooled. The strangest thing to me about Childress is how a former QB coach and offensive coordinator can be so anti-pass and place such low value on the QB position. He’s done nothing in his tenure to make us think he believes the QB is the most important position on the field.
by Bodysuit Man on Mar 4, 2009 11:21 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
Al Freaking Saunders
…would have been a GREAT hire, in my opinion. He was outstanding as OC with the Chiefs. Unlike Childress, Saunders had actually managed top-10 (or better) offenses numerous times.
I’ll stick up for Childress on the worst 5 comment, though. Marty Mornhinweg, Rod Marinelli, Les Steckel, Bill Callahan…and I’m sure there have been worse coaches than some of these, but they are so forgettable…maybe Dave Wannstedt or Richie Petitbon or Wayne Fontes or Rich Kotite would round out the worst 5 in my memory (and maybe Jerry Burns if he engineered and/or approved of the Herschel Walker trade).
The strangest thing to me about Childress is how a former QB coach and offensive coordinator can be so anti-pass and place such low value on the QB position. He’s done nothing in his tenure to make us think he believes the QB is the most important position on the field.
AMEN TO THAT!
My explanation is that Childress is playing a game of genius points and is not as focused on winning actual football games as he says he is. He may not even realize how warped his own mind has become from doing this for so long.
by KC Viking on Mar 4, 2009 11:33 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm talking about CURRENT nfl HCs
He’s bad but perhaps not historically bad just yet. Now that Herm Edwards is gone, who is worse? Guys with coaching experience that might rival his ineptitude are hard to come by but maybe Norv Turner, Marvin Lewis, and Dick Jauron could compete with Childress.
I agree with your last point about Childress. He does seem to worry about his image more than he does winning or losing. In my opinion, if you aren’t doing everything you can to win, you’re a loser. He is one of those guys who actually looks like he’s afraid to win a football game. There are times when the clock is running down and we’re down by a couple of scores when this guy punts the ball to the other team. What the hell do you possibly gain by giving the ball back when you’re down?
He also seems like an extremely hardheaded man with no flexibility on anything he does. This is not a good trait to have when you’re in charge and you’re in over your head, as I think Childress is. I think Mike Tomlin is a pretender as a HC too, but at least he dictates jobs to competent people to make himself look good (and to obviously good effect). Childress is so afraid of being outshone by an assistant, that he surrounds himself with pretty unimpressive ones. Leslie Frazier might be the exception but that could have been an accident for all we know.
by Bodysuit Man on Mar 5, 2009 3:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I dunno, he showed a little more humility this season. The QB change showed that he maybe realized Jackson isn’t the best. Not to mention they tried to get ahold of Cutler. I’m one of the seemingly few who are also mildly optimistic about the Rosenfels trade. It wasn’t a huge upgrade, but it could end up paying dividends. There were times he still seemed stubborn, but obviously he was different enough to get to a 10-6 record against a tougher schedule than he faced the previous season. There were a few upgrades on the team that helped, of course, but I think he made pretty good use of the players.
Would have like to see Peterson get more throws his way though. Like everyone would. I’m surprised they didn’t pull that out for the playoff game at least.
by Frost on Mar 5, 2009 4:36 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

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