Adressing the "Win Now" mentality in the NFL, and the Vikes position in it.
by NYCVike on Apr 18, 2009 3:57 PM CDT
27 comments
So, many in the media as well as many of the Viking faithful are getting nervous. Why? Because they feel like the Vikings have a team that looks to be a superbowl contender. For some reason this realization brings with it a panic that "This might be our ony shot!!!" and "If we don't do it this year we are gonna be too old!!!"
Dumb....
Yes, it is true we may be a QB away from being superbowl favorites, but the real name of the game is not "Quick trade away everything for a decent QB under 30!!" but rather keep drafting the best athletes that you can and watch your team grow with roots strong enough to be a dynasty! The Patriots made no blockbuster deals with their team. Neither has the Steelers.
On the contrary, teams like the Cowboys trading for Roy Williams, and now likely, the Bears for trading for Jay Cutler have made themselves boom or bust for one season in many ways. Overpaying to patch up holes in your team leads to a weak foundation. Unless the patch turns out to be truly great (see Jared Allen) then your team ends up bad for quite a while.
People say the Vikes are getting too old and need to try to win it now. Well, one of those pro bowl players who got too old was Darren Sharper. He's gone now and does anyone think we're worse off at the position? Not really. We might be better even because we DRAFTED a replacement for him. Winfield and Pat Williams will be next to be replaced as they are getting up there, but we will do so, and at some point this team will have a QB who is a solid starter. Maybe its Sage Rosenfels or maybe its our 1st round pick in 2010 that we will have because we didn't trade for Cutler.
Long story short we can feel confident that the Vikes will be worth watching for a long time to come beacuse of good personnel moves by the front office.
Bears?.........not so much.....
Best of luck this year Chicago. It might be your only shot.
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I guess the main cause of concern...
Is the relatively short life span your average RB has in the NFL. AP is already 2 hard seasons into his career, how many more dominating seasons can we expect out of him?
3 to 4 would be my guess at the rate they run him now. Maybe 5-6 if they start running Taylor more.
3-4 years is not a long time. Not only is that AP’s clock ticking down, but like you said Winfield, Phat Pat, and others.
LT
LT has been in the league 8 seasons, and is just turning 30. He is often regarded as the best back of this generation. Lets compare his first 2 seasons to AD’s.
LT – 849 total touches – 3,775 total yards (rushing and receiving)
AD – 641 total touches – 3,494 total yards (and he missed 2 games his rookie season)
I don’t understand why people always say AD will only last another 3-4 years. He is a one of a kind athlete. I see no reason for Peterson to play as many, if not more years than LT.
by PurplePeopleEaters09 on Apr 18, 2009 5:30 PM CDT reply actions
+1
Exactly, this hit the nail on the head with the whole “Peterson is only going to be good for a few more seasons” mentality. I mean, right now, Peterson is, without a doubt, the best RB in the league. You will not find a better a RB on any team. I doubt that, even if he does start slipping in 3 to 4 years, he’s going to go from amazing to terrible. People make it sound like in 3 more years, he’s only going to rush for 500 yards with single digit touchdowns.
AP like WP
I see AP as a Walter Payton kind of guy. Actually probably better than he was, but the way he runs is similar, and Walter played for quite a while. Its all about injuries but AP will be a player even after he loses some speed and shiftiness. Hell I bet he could play fullback when he gets too old for RB.
Agree
sure injury potential is always there but I think Adrian has the mindset to keep healty as a preventative measure. His adding a few lbs of muscle weight doesn’t bother me at all. Lots of guys had relatively long carrers at RB, Franko Harris, Walter Peyton, Warrick Dunn, Emmitt Smith to name a few. Frost is right, if AP stays heathy, he won’t just plumit in 4 years,
Here’s to a healthy Adrian Peterson for at least another 8 years. Cheers! :)
by CitrusFLViking on Apr 19, 2009 2:04 PM CDT up reply actions
Balanced Offense
During those years, did the Chargers rank near last in the NFL with their passing game, so that LT had to carry the overwhelming majority of the offensive load? Because if not, there’s no viable comparison there.
It is supposed to be about team, not one guy carrying the whole team on his shoulders. Not one superstar that makes an otherwise mediocre offense into something viable. That’s what’s called a ‘single-point of failure’. Anything happens to AP, the Vikes are hosed, and that’s not a good situation to be in. With a balanced offense, AP will last longer, put up better numbers. AP himself has been talking about wanting to bulk up a bit so that when they nail him, he might bounce a bit.
Balance
I don’t think anyone thinks that we can win without improving our passing game. What I think we need to realize is even when our passing game is working well it’ll never be a huge part of the offense. We will always be a run first team because that’s what Chilly’s design is. It will be an amazing offense as far as effeciency goes if we can get our pass completion % up. We need better QB play and better route running by the WRs and that’s mostly it. O-line being better too, but we’re not that far away. Replace Cook, and hopefully Sage plays a shade better than Frerotte and we have a lock NFC north winner.
I disagree that we are completely hosed without AP. This is why Chester is so important to the team. Let’s not forget Chester had 1200 some yards as the primary back in Chilly’s WORST offense of his tenure. That’s pretty impressive in my book.
According to Childress, the KAO is a version of the WCO, and a WCO is, by definition, a pass-first style offense. I think it’s more likely that Chilly doesn’t have much faith in the players to execute a solid passing game so he’s defaulting to the running side of things. With AP there, he can afford to do that.
Chester is in his final year. I’d love for the man to stay, but odds are he’s going to bail for a team where he can be a star again. Unless something is done there, the Vikes have a year to put someone else behind AP.
If rest of the Viking offense steps up in 2009, we could do some serious damage.
i applaud you for not hating on chilly like most people do
he’s done a good ass job.
and when people name other coaches who are “way better” like the guy in tennessee or bill cower or tony dungy etc and between them, i just think they’re dumb because in over 30 years of coaching they only have TWO super bowls.
it’s not about winning it all. only one team gets to do that. it’s about having a chance and making a run..
we get better every year. simple. dallas, pats didnt even make the playoffs last year with ALL THAT talent
and the falcons and cards did and us as well and no one of us were in the playoffs the year before.
cromscorner.blogspot.com
Chilly
I would like to point out how many years that Cowher coached mediocre teams into or almost into the playoffs until he won a superbowl. Plus he was stodgy, and had a semi-crappy running QB that he used for years (Korsell Stewart) before he got Roethlisberger. He’s like a Chilly clone with a 3-4 defense. Somebody needs to tell me why winning 1 superbowl makes a guy a genius. Can’t he just be lucky? Chilly isn’t the best coach in the league but he’s far from the worst.
Injuries can happen whenever
Using injuries as an excuse or age is just plain stupid at this point in the league…my best example, Tom Brady. Coming off a huge year, what happens, torn ACL. Did the team panic, maybe for a day or two, then a no name kid comes in and becomes a household name.
LT gets hurt, and comes back the next year just as strong. I understand AP runs hard and hits these guys hard but lets not treat him like glass, he is a grown adult that knows what is best for himself. Let him run.
On the topic of trading for a QB, i think if our main targets aren’t on the board, why not waste this year’s pick on a guy like Brady Quinn. However, if we can get a guy that is gonna fill a hole for us in the DT spot or CB spot (Vontae Davis is a personal favorite) we need to assess the situation and go from there. We took the best available guy a few years back AP even though we didn’t need him b/c C. Taylor was coming off a huge year. Lets look for another move like.
NFL
Stands for Not For Long. Currently the Vikings have the best defense in the NFC, and I firmly believe it’s going to improve this year, especially against the pass, with a younger, faster player replacing Sharper, and Griffin really coming into his own. We have the best left side of and O-line in the game and the best RB in the game. You know what’s missing? A talented QB who can punish teams for playing man-to-man coverage by hitting deep posts and deep outs. Jackson is not that guy, and he proved that against Philly in the playoffs — they played two deep zone with corners rolled up in the second half and Jackson couldn’t make the throws to beat them.
Jay Cutler instantly makes this team a contender because he can beat them on the deep ball. He can run an offense effectively and make the throws necessary to move the chains. He has a giant chip on his shoulder after what happened this offseason and wants to prove he’s a franchise QB. Look at what his record would be if Denver could hold anybody under 25 points — it’s pretty impressive.
This defense won’t be great forever, and the lifespan of a great NFL RB is usually less than 8 years. If you add Cutler and sign Torry Holt (who’s been creamed by shitty QB play the last couple of years) this team has a legit shot at a title in the next 3-4 years. Without those two, we’re hoping that Rosenfels can be a difference maker (and he’s better than Frerotte based on arm and mobility alone) or we’re hoping that some team is willing to dump their stud QB to us for nothing. We certainly aren’t going to draft one in the next couple of years. You have to strike while the iron is hot, and it’s steaming right now.
To your other points about great franchises:
If you have great judges of talent in your organization, like the Steelers and Patriots do, and you have an owner that is going to put payroll right at the salary cap every year, you’ll do fine. You know what else helps those teams?
- Veteran players signing for less to play there.
- Finding two franchise QBs in the 6th round of the draft.
- Having great coaches and coordinators that are extremely efficient at molding the player/personnel that they have into offensive/defensive units that are effective, or having an eye for just the right players to fit your system.
The Vikes don’t have any of that in spades like the Steelers and Patriots do. The Pats got Randy Moss, Junior Seau, Wes Welker, etc. for pennies on the dollar of what they were worth on the open market because those guys want to win. What has Minnesota done this offseason that shouts out “We want to win RIGHT NOW!!! We AIN’T waitin’ for NEXT YEAR!!!” — trading for Sage Rosenfels? Please. Signing a kick returner who fumbled 5 times last year and played for the worst team not playing in Detroit? Trading for Cutler says that. Signing Torry Holt says that. Trading for Anquan Boldin says that. Those other moves don’t.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
+1
Speaking of Not For Long and LT, where was he in the playoffs? I recall watching Darren Sproles running the ball in the playoffs, not LT…and they lost. I don’t believe that would have been the case had the Chargers had enough talent around him earlier in his career when he was healthy.
Agreed
If the team isn’t constantly building towards winning the Super Bowl, then they’re building for mediocrity. I love the fact that we won the division, but unfortunately, Chilli appears to believe that’s sufficient, based on his choices so far this off-season.
Fourstick..
You just made my point. The Vikes haven’t made the big splashes this year and mortgaged their future because they’re saying more than “We want to win right now!” They’re saying “We want to win now and all the years afterwards!” I agree about NE. They got super lucky with some trades, and vets will sign for little money because they’re a proven competitor EVERY YEAR!. That’s what the Vikes need and it takes some time. They didn’t like Belicheck in NE for a couple years either. If the Vikes can move in the playoffs and prove some staying power we can start to have some of the advantages of NE. Plus, I think Rosenfels made us better at QB than last year. I think TJack is a solid backup.
Your argument doesn't make sense though
If you trade for Cutler, who most (including myself) think is a franchise QB, he’s locked in for the next 5-6 years in his current contract. A franchise QB is the hardest thing to find in the game today, so when you have a chance to acquire a 26 year old franchise QB by giving up draft picks, you f****** do it and damn the consequences.
What you’re saying actually works better if you go out and try to win now. If you trade for Cutler, you can then build your offense around him and Peterson for the next 5-6 years, while focusing your drafts on putting talent around those two guys at WR and O-Line, and filling holes on defense as needed. When you don’t have a franchise QB, you spend every year around draft time trying to find one. In the last three years alone, the Vikings have spent two picks drafting Tarvaris Jackson (the one we traded to move up and the one we selected him with), a fifth rounder on John David Booty, and traded a fourth rounder for Sage Rosenfels. You know what New England, Indy, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, the Giants, and San Diego were doing with those picks? Drafting depth and rolling the dice on talented players at other positions. They’ve locked up the QB they can win with and are filling in around him to improve their team. THAT is a model that works, and has worked for the past 20 years.
I’d rather trade 2 picks and a backup QB for a franchise QB than spend the next four drafts using picks trying to find that guy.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Historical views of a closing window
Remember Thurman Thomas? Sure, he was arguably the best player in the game for about 4 years, and he stuck around after that, but he wasn’t nearly as effective from 1993 (400+ touches) and on.
Would LT have carried the Chargers to a SB victory had he been surrounded with more talent in his early career? I tend to think so. Even if AP has a career every bit as long and productive as Marshall Faulk, Priest Holmes, Tiki Barber, Eddie George, Fred Taylor, Shaun Alexander, LT, Walter Payton, Edgerrin James, Jerome Bettis, Robert Smith or Barry Sanders…look at how many SBs those guys won. Almost half of them never got to the big one, and only 4/12 won a Super Bowl (and by the time Bettis won his, he was playing a supporting role).
Let’s review some of the teams that seemed to have a real shot at winning a Super Bowl and then never again (without a major overhaul) in the past 15-20 years:
1984 Dolphins (even with a HoF QB, they never made it back again)
1985 Patriots (bad as they were, they rebuilt a SB loser in 11 years. 1998 was 11 years ago for the Vikes, jus’ sayin’) On the other side, one of the best defenses ever couldn’t carry them back to the SB.
1988 Bengals (and a 20+ year drought ever since…)
Cunningham/Buddy Ryan era Eagles
Barry Sanders era Lions (never had a great QB, often a QB carousel…sounds familiar)
1994 Chargers (who? Exactly.)
1995 Steelers (O’Donnell/Kordell/pre-Bus era)
1996 Patriots (Bledsoe seemed like the next great franchise QB at the time)
1998 Falcons (stud RB J. Anderson was never the same after 400+ touches and a torn ligament)
1998 Vikings
1999 Titans (remember when Air McNair seemed invincible?)
Vermeil era Chiefs (Even a 9-0 start with arguably the best RB in the game, one of the best O lines in the game, and a HoF TE wasn’t enough to get them to the big one.)
2002 Raiders (an AWFUL team most years since then)
2003 Panthers (competitive, but by the time they get back to the big one, they will not be the same team)
2004 Eagles (could make it back with McNabb and Westbrook, but Brian Dawkins and TO and Jon Runyan and several other key players are already gone…)
2005 Seahawks (Shaun Alexander was cut last year and the ’hawks were AWFUL. Is Hasselbeck done?)
2006 Bears
LT era Chargers
In the next 4 years or less, the VIkings may need to replace the following players with first round picks or FAs (in no particular order):
Kevin Williams
Pat Williams
AP
TJ
Mount McKinnie
Winfield
EJ
Steve Hutchinson
Plus existing needs: CB, WR, RT, C, LE
How many 1st round picks do you expect the Vikings to get?
Also, consider this: 122 RBs have been drafted and served as a primary starter for at least 1 season between 1980 and 2004. Only 22 have started 6+ seasons in that time. The median career for a RB in those 25 years is more like Karim Abdul-Jabbar, Dorsey Levens, Anthony Thomas or Napoleon Kauffman. Guys like Jamal Anderson and Lamar Smith had above-average length careers.
To take AP (torn LCL ligament and all) for granted as someone who will be this talented for 8+ seasons (12/122, a less than 10% chance) is somewhere between very foolish and, to use one of your words, “DUMB”.
2 more teams
I can’t believe I forgot to list the Marty Schottenheimer era Chiefs (especially the Joe Montana AFC Championship game year and the 13-3 Steve Bono years).
Superbowl
I’m not sure what point you’re making here KC. I think you’re saying that the Vikes need to try and win this year or else they’re not going to have a chance because AP will get hurt or old, and we won’t be able to keep out team as strong as it is now. In all honesty we don’t know.
All the teams you listed up there made me think about one thing though. The large majority of those super bowl losers (and lets be honest, plenty of winners) got there because they had a solid team and a lucky enough post-season.
Superbowl victories take luck. Of course you have to have the team good enough to get yourself in position in the playoffs, but it takes luck. Look at the Pats team that lost to the Giants. No one says the Giants were a better team that year than the Pats. They just happened to have a good game on the right day.
Winning superbowls is about getting to the playoffs every year. If we mortage everything and don’t win the superbowl we won’t have a chance to be in position to make the playoffs for years to come and we won’t have our shot of being lucky on the right day. That’s why we need to be smart and stay consistent contenders, while hoping we can have the truly best team in the league to up our chances.
No
What we’re saying is that there’s only one first round pick every year, so you can’t draft your way out of losing all those marquee players that the Vikings have currently that will either leave, retire, or lose effectiveness over the next 4-6 years. You get 7 picks a year, and only 3 of them will be spent on players that realistically have a chance to make an impact each year. You have to push your chips in the middle and go for it at some point, and this offseason was the chance for the Vikings to do just that.
You know what’s lucky? Being Super Bowl level good and making the playoffs for a decade straight in the current NFL. And by current I mean salary cap era. Indy, New England, Philly, and the Steelers are the only teams who’ve been consistently good this decade. What do they all have in common? A great QB and great drafts not spent looking for a great QB.
I’d rather make a 4-6 year run with a bunch of great players and then spend two years rebuilding then entering every season with questions at the skill positions. In other words, I’d rather be Dallas and Buffalo in the 90’s than Miami in the 80’s.
Look at the Pats team that lost to the Giants. No one says the Giants were a better team that year than the Pats. They just happened to have a good game on the right day.
That same Giants team nearly beat New England in week 17 that year. They had the talent to beat them and came up with a great gameplan to stifle the Patriot offense. Saying they got “lucky” and “played well on the right day” is ridiculous. They were a very good team and proved it by playing a team that had blown out everyone else on their schedule to a relative standstill for 4 quarters. The Tyree catch was luck, but them being in a position to win wasn’t.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Luck?
Luck might get you in the door, but if both teams are playing their par, the better team is going to win. And while luck may play a factor in injuries, I believe that good physical conditioning and knowing how to protect yourself when you fall, even knowing when to take the fall, are bigger factors than random chance. The Vikes have been to the playoffs 24 times in which they didn’t advance to the Super Bowl, do you really think that’s a matter of ‘luck’?
I know it’s axiomatic to say, ‘on any given Sunday…’, but you know what? I don’t buy it. I think that when teams have bad days, there’s reasons for it, it’s not a roll of cosmic dice.
No.
Many of those teams didn’t make the playoffs in the years they weren’t in the SB.
The 2007 Giants had had a SB quality D for almost a decade, so getting there wasn’t very lucky for them at all. I hope you aren’t saying that you believe that the Vikings could have won the SB in any one of these Childress seasons based on luck alone because that would be ridiculous.
Based on the low quality of QBs, run-heavy offense and high quality defense, Childress is basically trying to be the 2006 Bears or 2000 Ravens. The D isn’t good enough vs. the pass to carry this style of offense there, especially with such bottom-of-the-barrel QB play.
I’m not so sure that the Vikings will be in the playoffs in 2009 without a miraculous transformation of Sage and/or TJ, 0 starters injured all year, more passing, and less predictable playcalling. ALL of those things.
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