Draft Day Dilemma

The question is: who might the Vikings consider for OL? They presumably like to use zone blocking schemes, which traditionally requires linemen with plus athleticism/lateral movement. So maybe you’d think a guy like Eben Britton—who’s considered limited in his lateral movement and ability to work in space—might not be a good fit. OTOH, they’ve gone out of their way to put a lot of size up front since Childress took over. That still works if the big guy is agile, as Birk, Hutchinson, and McKinney all are to different degrees. But on the right side, with Cook in particular, not so much. It’s funny that for how tight a ship they run on the defensive side of the ball in terms of getting personnel to fit their system (the side which Childress is least involved in, FWIW) , offensively they seem to do a lot of square-pegs-round-holes. But maybe that’s a discussion for another day.

Anyway, I agree OT is hands down their biggest need. If their coaching/scheme were tight enough, you’d think they could find diamonds in the rough for the OL later in the draft. The Broncos have excelled at this over the years. But the Vikings aren’t the Broncos in this regard. Still, you don’t necessarily NEED to spring for non-elite linemen in the first if you do your homework. So while I think they’ll consider Eben Britton if he’s there (they did invite him to Winter Park, after all), considering his lack of lateral movement and short arms likely make him a RT for life who may or may not be able to operate in a zone blocking system, he might not be their guy. Maybe we’ll see. Same things goes for Phil Loadholt in round 2. I COULD see them make a move on a more athletic guy like South Carolina’s Jamon Meredith, but he’s one of those guys who are a reach at #22 but might not be there at their 2nd round pick. At this point I’d like to see a draft with Alphonso Smith at #22 and Meredith at #54. But yeah, considering they could maybe move down a little bit and still land something like that, I think they should look into it should the opportunity arise.

…especially since there appear to be several worthy players who may fall to #22.

I surveyed the 58 defensive backs chosen with picks #22-32 since 1980 and found about a 33% bust rate.

OTs aren’t the sure thing some expect them to be, either. I looked up the 25 OTs drafted with picks #22-32 since 1980 and found 10 bust and 2 half busts, for about a 44% bust rate.

WRs selected with picks #22-32 since 1980 weren’t much worse with a 48% bust rate.

There will be busts regardless of the position, so the most important thing is the quality of the player available. Here’s a real dilemma: What if a RB is the best player—by far—when pick #22 rolls around? I’d say shop Taylor for a high #2 and go for it.

According to the Value Chart, the Vikings’ 1st and 3rd wouldn’t be enough to get to 15. Their 1st and 2nd would, but then the Vikings would be overpaying a little bit, although if they asked for a 4th in return on top of moving up for their 1st and 2nd, that would roughly approximate fair value, according to the chart.

Not that teams always treat the chart as gospel. But it’s been around for a while now, and every team has it.

Their 1st and 3rd would be enough to move to, say 18 or so. Right before the QB-starved Bucs and a little before the QB-starved Lions. Just sayin.

In all likelihood, though, as far as the 1st round goes, I think they either stand pat or move down. They typically move around a lot after the 1st round, though, with mixed results.