The Value-Vs.-Need Discussion: 2007 Draft Edition
When it comes to the NFL Draft, every team wants to "win." They want to hit a homerun with a player that most teams will overlook and reap the rewards on the field. Easier said than done...
One of the most discussed quandaries the "big chesses" of NFL franchies have is whether to draft for value or for need. To help them out, let's take a look at the 2007 Draft.
More after the jump.
1st Round, 7th Overall - Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma
This pick is recognized as the best thing to happen to Vikings fans in a long time. It's one of those times where you remember where you were. (I was listening on the radio in the backyard while working on a To-Do list. My reaction was mostly positive, but I would've liked to grab Quinn before he fell any further. I think I've changed my mind.)
With the seventh pick, the Vikings were sitting at the crossroads between 'elite' picks and 'top-tier' picks. With an epically bad secondary the year before, safety LaRon Landry would have been an ideal pick. Ted Ginn Jr. would fill a need, but was he worth the 7th pick?
As we all know, the Vikings couldn't pass up on a talent like Peterson - even though a talent like Quinn was still on the board. The Vikings clearly drafted Peterson as a value pick, and it's worked out fairly well, wouldn't you say?
2nd Round, 44th Overall - Sidney Rice, WR, South Carolina
This pick is a rarity in the NFL, and what every coach dreams of: a talented player who fills a need and isn't a reach. Rice, according to some draft experts, would have been a top-15 selection had he returned for his senior season in South Carolina.
The Vikings needed speed in their receiving corps, and Rice provided/is providing that. Rice hasn't played a full season yet, nor are his stats mindblowing, but he has shown glimpses of potential and should emerge as a very good receiver in the NFL. After all, he is only 22 years old.
3rd Round, 72nd Overall - Marcus McCauley, CB, Fresno State
At the time, this pick was viewed as one of the best of the draft. McCauley was held in high regard among draft experts, and the fact that he filled a need on the Minnesota roster only added icing to the cake.
McCauley hasn't exactly panned out as Vikings fans would have liked. In 2008, he started one game and totaled three tackles. Uh.. redo? Names like Trent Edwards or LaRon McLain - both of whom were drafted after McCauley - sound more appealing than McCauley.
Based on what you remember of the 2007 draft, what is the answer to my question? As a general rule, which is more important - drafting for value or drafting for need?
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Comments
Value
It has shown that Value has always outshown need. The need has never sent us to the superbowl, the Value players are all going to eventually. Imagine if we had not taken Adrian Peterson how different we would be. This year we have to take the most valuable player with maybe some minor need off the board before he goes and becomes a big guy for another franchise. Imagine AP in a different colored Jersey. The thought is sickening!
by FutureViking43 on Apr 5, 2009 5:10 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Sickening!

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by Andersklasen on Apr 5, 2009 6:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Aw, you just made me puke up that delicious cake I just ate… :’(
In AP I trust
by FarvaForTheVikings on Apr 5, 2009 10:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ha
Obviously you guys know the Bears have a back up RB named Adrian Peterson right?
by Spartan99 on Apr 6, 2009 2:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, but, it’s still sickening to say that name on the back of any non-purple jersey.
In AP I trust
by FarvaForTheVikings on Apr 6, 2009 11:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
draft for value and then address the needs through free agency. This is the number one reason the draft should be before the free agency season.
by iowa_cyclone on Apr 5, 2009 6:15 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Value
Never reach for a perceived need in the 1st round. Choose the BPA. Use need only as a tiebreaker. And if your scouting dept. is any good, there are no ties of talent evaluation in the 1st round.
Iowa_cyclone is correct: address needs in free agency. Sage advice. (Did I really say that?)
by Odin on Apr 5, 2009 8:36 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Knowshon or Wells?
If either fell to #22 and was the best player available, is that who you would take (or want the Vikings to select) with this year’s 1st round pick?
by KC Viking on Apr 5, 2009 10:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Knowshon?
I do not consider this Bulldog to be a 1st round talent. That is my opinion. Feel free to disagree. As I am sure you will since you obviously consider him a top 22 prospect. (personally-this is a down year for RB’s, which is good)
This brings me to new but related topic. I will state it briefly since I need to go to bed. I think most fans overvalue the skill players. QB’s, RB’s & WR’s are overvalued and the guys in the trenches are undervalued. A players flashy highlight on Sportscenter should not over ride the technically sound block that sprung the RB to make said play. No one highlights this block because of it’s lack of pizzazz. Like I said, a different but related subject.
Your Wells arguement does point out a flaw in my thesis. But he will be gone before Goodell puts us on the clock. IMHO.
by Odin on Apr 6, 2009 12:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Value
No question about it. The only reason AD fell to 7 were questions surrounding his durability after that broken collarbone. Thank god we didn’t fall for that stiff Brady Quinn who I still don’t think will ever be a top drawer NFL qb. Sidney Rice needs to work a lot harder at his game. His route running last year was absolutely pathetic and he needs to work on his upper body strength so as to be able to shed the jam. In fact, that’s the problem with the Viking WR corps as a whole — they’re just not physical enough to turn the 10 yd. slant into a 20 yd. gain with YAC. And I’m here to tell you also that as tough as he is, AD’s gonna wear down being asked to carry the ball 20-25 times a game week in and week out. Rumor has it that he wants to add 10lbs of muscle in the offseason which the brain trust supposedly isn’t sold on.
by VikingBillArlingtonVA on Apr 5, 2009 10:01 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
RB at #22?
If Knowshon or Wells is available at #22 and is the best player available, you would select a RB in the first round rather than address needs at OT, CB, (perhaps LB) and WR?
by KC Viking on Apr 5, 2009 10:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's called
trade down. If the BPA would be logjamed by the talant you already have, then you find some one who desperatly wants him and trade down to get more value for your team. either that, or you take him, and trade Chester for picks and players to fill other needs. Sometimes the BPA is a lower draft pick.
Will the Real Thor Please Stand Up ... ?
by the Real Thor on Apr 5, 2009 11:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I remember:
I was at my high school in the Commons (big area for hanging out and such). I ditched the pickup football game I had been in outside to watch it on the big screen. It was definitely worth it.
In AP I trust
by FarvaForTheVikings on Apr 5, 2009 10:16 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I can’t remember where I saw it, but someone used the term most valuable player available (as opposed to best available player), and I rather like that. You pick the player that will be the most valuable to your team, and majority of the time, yes, that evaluation will include some estimation of your team’s needs.
Everyone throws out AP as a prime example of the benefits of drafting BPA. But even there, they really only had one good RB in the age where conventional wisdom mandates you have two, and AP and Chester bring different strengths to the table, to boot.
You must also factor in that it’s not smart cap use to draft a player who A) might not play because he plays a position where you’re loaded and B) maybe plays the same position where you already have invested a lot of salary. Personally, I’d say, outside of a situation where you maybe have a franchise QB who’s maybe in the late prime of his career and you’re drafting a young QB to apprentice, that you need to find a guy who’s going to contribute rather heavily as a rookie, simply from a cap efficiency perspective.
Finally, one big negative to prospect rankings is they rarely factor schemes (and schemes are a huge part of football, more than any other team sport by far), so BPA is going to be different depending on what team is judging. Going back to Brady Quinn, the guy didn’t exactly bring Donovan McNabb to mind when he was at Notre Dame, and that’s what Childress wants. So even though Quinn was the best QB on most conventional prospect lists, the Vikings poohbahs I’m sure considered him an imperfect fit.
by jianfu on Apr 5, 2009 11:25 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Of Course
just because Brady Quinn was the best QB prospect, does mean he was the best player available at the #7 spot.
But that does raise an important issue. for example, this years draft class is very deep in Linebackers that are supposed to fit well in the 3-4 base defence. Since we don’t employ the 3-4 defence, it would be a bad decision to pick a Linebacker if he was the BPA at 22 if he was best suited for the 3-4, then you should either look at a different player, the BPA for a diff position, or if there is no one else that wouldn’t be a reach at 22, then you trade the pick, move down so that you can find players that both fit our scheme and would not be a reach at that new spot.
Will the Real Thor Please Stand Up ... ?
by the Real Thor on Apr 6, 2009 6:42 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also, I’m excited for Sidney Rice this year. Eventually you need to sink or swim with the young guys.
by jianfu on Apr 5, 2009 11:27 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
It's always a tough call
I do not envy NFL front-office types in the draft, especially those that have to pick very early. They have to give a lot of money to the guy they pick, and they’re almost always coming off a sub-par year. Therefore, their picks are dissected like crazy, most of the time long before it’s fair to judge whether or not their pick has contributed enough. That’s why I think teams have to tirelessly scout all of their options as much as possible so they don’t miss the next Adrian Peterson just because they were already OK at a certain position.
One proofreading note: in the second paragraph, I believe it’s supposed to be “cheeses”, not “chesses”. Don’t think GM’s are referred to as rooks or bishops very often :)
by ericj69 on Apr 6, 2009 9:31 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Its easy to say...
…that you should always go for value, but you have to make choices every year, and no matter how good your scouting is, sometimes its a crapshoot. We MUST come away with a solid starting ORT this year. What’s the chance we get one outside of round 1? I’m sure there is a statistic out there about starting percentages about different rounds that I’m too lazy to look up, but if we don’t get a guy in round 1 we are taking a serious gamble about having a huge hole on our line. Sometimes gambles pay off, sometimes they don’t. I’d rather make sure we get a round 1 OT versus hoping someone falls to us in the 2nd. Sometimes safety makes more sense.
by NYCVike on Apr 6, 2009 8:39 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Just because there are still
OT’s left when you pick at #22, does nlot mean that the best one available is 1 round materail. if he is not, you don’t reach for him, you wait for the second round to get him, and either take the best 1 round material, or you trade down.
Will the Real Thor Please Stand Up ... ?
by the Real Thor on Apr 7, 2009 6:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
In a draft (aka young talent) go for the upside~
Looking at the draft, yes A.P. was a win however, as an team you need to look 2-5 season down the line. Sometime taking the chance (hire Denny Green as a Scout!) works. Look at the turnaround RB’s had because of AP’s talent & determination (remember the N.A.Saints game… Mr. Gimmie the damn ball!) You need to look at our need and the talent within range. If you have the #22 pick and you need a QB but the QB that comes down the line is predicted 2nd or 3rd rd. choice – you pass… You have to take someone that has the best talent that fits your scheme & team.
In the 1st round – you have a chance of the best of the best. Don’t just get the best player unless you have 90% of the players you want, don’t reach for a player that “Might” revive or take you somewhere, unless you see the upside…
IMHO, stick with someone that you have faith in, NOT someone that you are going,,,,“what if he…?”
by Duluth Guy on Apr 6, 2009 10:30 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
On a related note
Has anyone ever looked statistically at the best round to draft particular positions? Tom Brady was a 6th Round pick, Alex Smith was a first so would that suggest that it’s better to draft a QB late and build him up than to go for the one that looks ready? Or is it a case that early drafted QBs tend to go to teams with a poor supporting cast?
As regards the original question, I’d say draft the best player available unless you have no need for that position on your team, in which case trade for extra picks later on if you can. Addressing definite needs for a team ought to be handled in free agency – a first round ‘need’ pick can cause all sorts of headaches in terms of committing huge amounts of cash to an unproven talent, and a giving a rookie a huge amount of pressure to deal with (not thinking of Vince Young at this point…)
by ViolentSilence on Apr 7, 2009 12:29 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I think you’re looking at it from the wrong angle, as it goes with what round to pick a QB. Here you use only one example, and an extreme one to say it is better to draft a QB late than early. You’d be better to improve your theory by looking for success rate by round and how you judge them. For instance, last year the top five QBs in passer rating went like this – Rivers (1st round, 2004), Pennington (1st round, 2000), Kurt Warner (undrafted), Drew Brees (2nd round, 1st pick 2001), and Peyton Manning (1st overall, 1998). That is 3 first rounders, a 2nd rounder, and an undrafted QB. That would suggest there is more success in the early round vs your hypothesis that its better to draft a QB late and build him. River is by far the youngest of the QBs and even he is in his 6th year. Rounding out the top ten are 2 more undrafted QBs (Romo, Garcia), one 3rd rounder (Schaub), one 7th rounder (Cassel) and another 1st (Rodgers). That would be 4 1st rounders, 1 2nd, 1 3rd, 1 7th, and 3 undrafted. Seems like you are better off taking a guy in the first or just not drafting one if you just look at QB rating. Looking solely at passing yards gives you a different look too (6 1sts, 1 2nd, 1 4th, 1 7th, and 1 undrafted), so its kind of all in how you quantify it.
by vikingfuture8816 on Apr 7, 2009 1:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The first round has more than it’s fair share of wash-out QBs though, but that might be more a case of profile – if Troy Smith or JD Booty don’t amount to anything, no one will notice, but if Matt Leinart ends up being a bust (along the David Carr, Tim Couch, Joey Harrington lines), people will go back and query that pick. I wasn’t saying that it is definitely better to pick up a QB late, but I’d be interested to see the numbers.
I’m more interested in the general picture than just the QBs though – I’d guess that QB is the hardest position to evaluate because of the role of the supporting cast. Do first round O-line and LB draft picks tend to have better careers? Do some WRs and RBs end up being 1st round picks because of their measurables at the combine, when their college production suggests that they should go later?
My gut feeling is that the first 10 draft picks tend to be more influenced by need which leads to busts, but a few positions (OL, LB, DT (maybe)) tend to do OK there, whilst QBs and RBs tend to flounder (because generally they’re working with horrible lines). Matt Ryan damaged that theory a bit last year though!
by ViolentSilence on Apr 8, 2009 7:26 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Matt Ryan and Flacco are exceptions to the rule. The Falcons had a lot of talent the year before last, but with Vick and their coaching situation, everything just fell apart and Ryan got to go to a good situation. Plus he is good, better than I thought. Same with Flacco. Ravens had a lot of talent, but they added some more talent around the QB and helped support him. The Ravens didn’t really rely on Flacco to win games for them. The Ravens actually threw less attempts/game then the Vikings.
I am with you in that there is a lot more pressure to preform for top ten picks, especially QBs. Usually those teams picking QBs in the top ten have multiple issue and personnel problems, but most fans would say, “We got a top ten QB, our team should set the world on fire” and when it doesn’t happen they usually don’t react well. I think in the end, it doesn’t really matter where you draft your QB as long as he fits into what you are trying to do as an offense and you get a great supporting cast.
by vikingfuture8816 on Apr 8, 2009 12:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wouldn’t it be nice to enter the draft line up the players accordant to there value and pick. Then there wouldn’t be a need for a draft.
Do you go into the draft looking only for need? Then you get who ever is the best value for your needs.
I think you’ll have to ask me when its my turn to pick. I bleave that you can not say who you would take untill its your turn. There’s always that player that should not be there when its your turn.
by mitewintoday on Apr 7, 2009 8:40 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

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