Running Backs with and without Favre.

by Robert Rence on Jun 29, 2009 9:17 AM CDT Comment 16 comments

A LOT has been said about the differences between the Quarterbacks. Stats have been hashed up, injuries have been scrutinized, and recently Defensive Indifferance made an in-depth post about it, as was pointed out on Gonzo's Viking Vegur. So, remembering how well Thomas Jones ended up doing last year, I decided to do a side by side comparison. And not to be incomplete, I figured I'd check Ryan Grant's stats as well from Green Bay.

Here are Thomas Jones' stats from the 2007 season.

G	Att	Yds	Avg	Lng	TD	Rec	Yds	Avg	Lng	TD	FUM	Lost
16	310	1119	3.6	36	1	28	217	7.8	25	1	2	0

And here are his stats from the 2008 season.

G	Att	Yds	Avg	Lng	TD	Rec	Yds	Avg	Lng	TD	FUM	Lost
16	290	1312	4.5	59T	13	36	207	5.8	19	2	2	1

Ryan Grant in the 2007 season.

G	Att	Yds	Avg	Lng	TD	Rec	Yds	Avg	Lng	TD	FUM	Lost
15	188	956	5.1	66T	8	30	145	4.8	21	0	1	1

And finally, Ryan Grant in the 2008 season.

G	Att	Yds	Avg	Lng	TD	Rec	Yds	Avg	Lng	TD	FUM	Lost
16	312	1203	3.9	57	4	18	116	6.4	17T	1	4	3

Is there a noticable difference? I would certainly say that, yes, there is. In rooughly ten percent less attempts, Thomas Jones ended up with a nearly one yard increase in his average and an additional 12 touchdowns over the course of the season. His reception average went down however getting less yards on more receptions.. As he is a Running Back however, I consider the first part more important.

Meanwhile, Ryan Grant's rushing dropped significantly. In nearly 140 more attempts in 2008, Ryan managed another 250 yards, and his average run dropped 1.2 yards in length. Additionally, in nearly twice the carries, he got half as many touchdowns as he did in the 2007 season.And without Favre, his average receptions went up as well, by nearly two points. On under twenty receptions. Another stat to be thrown out.

I would like to do some follow-up analysis on this as well, by getting the average YAC for Green Bay and the Jets in 2007 and 2008. If my guess is correct, the Green Bay average increased in 2008, while the Jets would decrease. If that is the case, I believe this will show that opposing defenses did consider Favre in their game plans, allowing for a noticable increase in the running game at the expense of the passing game. If someone would know where to look those stats up, I would greatly appreciate it.

This FanPost was created by a registered user of The Daily Norseman, and does not necessarily reflect the views of the staff of the site. However, since this is a community, that view is no less important.

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Thanks for the info

I have always said Farve is going to help Adrian play better and these stats back that up, +1 yard per carry for a running back is huge as is the -1 drop for Grant without Farve. Wow. Look out. Imagine Adrian with an average of nearly 6 yds per carry.

by Drullin'OverDaCards on Jun 29, 2009 11:33 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Conterpoint

You should check out the Vegur as another Vikings blog did an article just like this and did a really good write up on the correlation between how the run and pass games affect each other.
http://jasonwinter.blogspot.com/2009/06/brett-adrian-part-2.html

by vikingfuture8816 on Jun 29, 2009 12:27 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

That was actually why I made the post (and I referenced it in the first paragraph as well), but when I checked both of his articles and the article he referenced on Viking Pacifist, I didn’t see a direct comparison between Favre’s running backs.

When you go to somebody's house, you don't crap on their floor. Being a fan of one team does NOT give you license to be a dick to fans of another.

by Robert Rence on Jun 29, 2009 1:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I see what you are saying, but I bring the article back up because it seems more realistic then your direct comparison because your direct comparison leaves a lot out of the equation and you’re looking at one instance and treating it like its the rule while it is much closer to the exception.
First, you’re comparing Thomas Jones and Ryan Grant. One RB who has played for 8 years and one who has played for two. Regardless that they both played under Favre for a year, you’re comparison has to treat them as though they are similar backs which I just don’t see. Then you don’t take any other factors into consideration. The Jets o-line was pretty young and pretty bad and adding Alan Faneca was huge, so was adding Damien Woody, the o-line injuries for the pack, the injury to Ryan Grant, difference in strength of schedule {2007 GB .496 Jets .516 (15 team difference), 2008 GB .531 Jets .457 (12 team difference)}, the difference in pass/rush attempts with and without Favre, etc.
My point being that the Defensive Indifference is much more accurate because it isn’t so singular in it focus, taking a lot more info to account for their statistics. What’s the old adage? You can make any single stat support your argument, but you have to have to take multiple stats into account to get a more accurate picture. If you were to do a direct comparison in the same vein as Defensive Indifference (showing a correlation between the pass total/passer rating/Adusted Net Yards Per Attempt to rushing average for the packers and Jets) probably would show you a better direct comparison.

by vikingfuture8816 on Jun 29, 2009 4:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Interesting stats

That was my gut feeling as well, but I had not seen any hard #s, and appreciate you running them.

The only thing with Grant is, I’m not sure he’s the real deal. My hunch is that GB blew a lot of money last year on him. So it may not be Favre leaving that did him in, it may just be “the element of surprise” — “Hey, look! Green Bay has someone who can run the ball beyond the line of scrimmage!” (lol) — caught up, and teams gameplanned. Grant was absolutely useless in that NFC championship game, much, much worse than Favre, in a game that screamed for pounding the ball on the ground & not putting it in the air. Although some of that had to do with the Giants run D granted.

by puddnhead on Jun 29, 2009 12:32 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Good info

You have to take into account the teams whole offensive situations. The Jets brought in a couple FA lineman in the offseason in 08’. I think Favre’s coming had a huge impact on their running game but some of it also had to do with improvements they made in the offseason. As for Grant I don’t neccessarily think Favre leaving is what caused his decline. The stats Rodgers put up in 08’ were pretty much identical to those that Favre put up in 07’. I think the cause is his decline were some injuries we had on the o-line (Clifton, Wells, Tauscher, our best 3 lineman) and more so I think he was no longer “sneaking up” on team like he did in 07’. He kind of came onto to the scene, and surprised everybody. In 08’ it wasn’t like that, I think teams were better prepared for him. He also had a hamstring injury which slowed him at the beginning of the year too, which was when he had most of his poor games. I think this year will be the year where us Packer fans find out if he is really legit or not. He is healthy so he doesn’t have that excuse, our o-line is almost all the way healthy, and our pass game will only be more deadly this year, which should open things up for him. I kind of agree with you puddnhead, I think we gave him an extension to soon. I think physically he has all the tools to be good, but he doesn’t have great vision. This year should answer a lot of questions about him.

And finally I think Favre will help your run game tremendousely. Your o-line is already great and your run game is already great also. With a legit passing game, it should only open things up more.

by packallday555 on Jun 29, 2009 2:53 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

This is why I'd like to check out the Yards After Catch stats

A weak offensive line would also lead to troubles with the running game as well. I feel that if Green Bay’s YAC went up in 2008, and the Jets YAC went down, it will further show that opposing defenses focused more on the passing game with Favre in the game then without. And I don’t think offensive line changes would really affect that stat.

When you go to somebody's house, you don't crap on their floor. Being a fan of one team does NOT give you license to be a dick to fans of another.

by Robert Rence on Jun 29, 2009 3:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I guess

I don’t really agree. YAC, really comes down to the wr’s, I don’t really feel it has anything to do with the QB. Defenses can’t really focus more on not giving up YAC. If the wr has the ablility to make things happen after the catch he is probably going to do so.

by packallday555 on Jun 29, 2009 4:20 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Great read, Wario.

I still think we should stick with T-Jack.

"He didn’t call me or anything. It was an accident, but a lot of people would have called to see how someone is doing after they got hit in the head. Especially if they had to go on the DL." — Morneau on pitcher Ron Villone after an April 2005 beaning.

by Gonzo2 on Jun 30, 2009 5:50 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

by iseepurplepeople on Jun 30, 2009 12:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Which QB goes

None. If frivolous Favre does show up and plays, it will be for a season. Why comprise the future?

by IMCLGONZO on Jun 30, 2009 1:43 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Thomas Jones is just weird. For the past few years, people have been expecting him to fall off the map, and every year, he seems to have a great season.

I predict 2,000 yards for him this year! And the Heisman Trophy!

Wait, what do you mean he can’t…

by JasonW on Jun 30, 2009 3:22 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I see what you're getting at Robert, but...

…when you compare the rushing and passing games as a whole for the teams Favre has played on, it looks quite different.

A Favre team has finished higher than 10th in rushing in the league only twice. 2003 with GB and 2008 with the Jets. In both of those years, Favre finished 16th in passing. In his 17 years as a starter, Favre’s team has finished at or near the bottom in rushing in the league a whopping 11 times.

There must be a reason for this. I’d like someone to explain it to me and also assure me that this trend will not follow him to the Vikings.

"Skol pa fiskande"

by NobleSavage on Jun 30, 2009 4:15 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

i bet there’s a direct correlation between those numbers and the play calling of favre.

can’t give you the assurance you’d like. favre will be calling/changing plays.

favre: ‘have a rest ap, grampy favre’s got this one’
ap: ‘ok grampy’
announcer: ‘favre drops back and delivers a limp bullet….but it’s intercepted! why would you call a pass on 3rd and 1 with best running back in nfl history???. and the vikings playoff woes continue as they are knocked out once again. see you next year!’

by iseepurplepeople on Jul 1, 2009 10:49 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bad run blocking?

I don’t know if Thomas Jones is a good RB to use the first year’s stats were his first year with the Jets and come on they were not a good team that year. The Jets lost their starting QB half the way through that season, opposing D-fences were stacking 8 and 9 in the box cause they had no QB. I would only look at his RB’s stats that he had in GB.

by davis0169 on Jun 30, 2009 4:31 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Look at RB stats only with GB?

OK, I’ll buy that. In that case, a Brett Favre Green Bay team has finished higher than 10th in the league only 1 time. I don’t think that just because Favre is the QB means that the running back will succeed.

"Skol pa fiskande"

by NobleSavage on Jun 30, 2009 4:47 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs