Three-and-outs
With all the talk about who will be the best option at QB for the Vikings this year and how team stats from last year compare to each other, I wondered if I could find stats showing the number of “true” three-and-outs given up by offenses and forced by defenses.
First, what is a “true” three-and out? I define this as when the offense takes the field and four plays later they punt. These stats should not include turnovers, penalties, or safeties, as these are tracked separately. A three-and out can be one of the most deflating moments in a game, not only to the team, but also to the crowd. There is no worse feeling than to watch the defense make a great stance only to have the offense come on the field and go three-and-out.
I searched, but could not find anyplace that tracked three-and-outs, so I decided to compile a few teams on my own. Of course the Vikings were my first choice. Then I thought I should choose the Super Bowl participants and a couple of the worst teams for comparison. I also chose the two best offenses. Surprisingly, neither made it to the “big show”. Finally, I chose the Jets for obvious reasons.
So without further adieu, here are the stats for “true” three and outs including how the offenses and defenses ranked at the end of the year in total yards.
Offense 3 & Outs Rank Defense 3 & Outs Rank
Denver 26 2 Pittsburg 56 1
New Orleans 28 1 Minnesota 43 6
NY Jets 32 16 New Orleans 40 23
Arizona 34 4 Oakland 37 27
Minnesota 38 17 Arizona 35 19
Pittsburg 40 22 Detroit 33 32
Oakland 55 29 NY Jets 32 16
Detroit 55 30 Denver 30 29
Take these stats for what they are, but it does seem interesting, although maybe not surprising that the best teams rank highest in three-and-outs. I think it’s also plain to see why the Steelers won the Super Bowl. Wow, 56 times the defense forced a three-and out. That averages out to 3.5 per game. Pretty impressive.
This FanPost was created by a registered user of The Daily Norseman, and does not necessarily reflect the views of the staff of the site. However, since this is a community, that view is no less important.
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wow
Very nice job on this. Must have taken you a while to go through game logs and figure these out! Coming from a guy who is stats crazy, I’m impressed.
Now, to my analysis of these numbers…
I think the most glaring thing when looking at these lists is the importance of a defenseive 3 and out. On the defensive side, three of the top four (1, 6, 16, 19) went to the playoffs, and that fourth, the Jets, were close. The bottom four (23, 27, 29 ,32) on the defensive side all failed to make it past the regular season.
I think these numbers show that stopping the opposition in a quick fashion, is more important than being stopped in a quick fashion. I say this because the Steelers, the NFL champions, finished towards the bottom of the pack in offensive 3 and outs, and the Vikes finished a meager 17th.
Another thing worthy of noting is that the teams that finished 1, 2, and 4 in least amount of offensive 3 and outs, finished 1, 3, and 2 respectively, in total passing last season. In other words, the teams that are the best at passing, are also the best at avoiding the dreaded “three and out”. Makes sense, but its interesting to see put down on screen.
V-I-K-I-N-G-S! Skol Vikings, Let's Go!!
Yeah, I kind of thought that the offensives with higher ranking passing would have the fewer 3 and outs. How many times do you see a team with 3rd and long and they just can’t convert. Jay Cutler is beginning to make me a bit nervous, although he won’t have the pass catching weapons he had in Denver. I actually thought that the Vikes were worse than what they turned out to be. But you’re right, the defensive side looks to be the dominant force when it comes to 3 and outs. It would be nice to see a full list with all the teams. Maybe people can collect data for 1 team each and add to the data.
"Skol pa fiskande"
Very interesting!
Thanks, NS, for showing us this, great food for thought!
This seems like a meaningful way of describing both offensive and defensive production, although it might be skewed a bit by time of possession in any given game, I think that over the course of a season and with all the teams, any variables might factor themselves out.
It also suggests that if Favre can repeat his performance from last year, as a minimum, he could make the difference we’ve been hoping for.
nice post ns. thanks for taking the time to share that with everyone.
by iseepurplepeople on Jun 30, 2009 12:35 PM CDT reply actions
DITTO
Great read. Great analysis.
E.J. Henderson was gone for 3 quarters of the season, and with him in the line-up I believe we are a much stronger team in the pass rush, and better against the run. We should be in the top 10 again this year in defensive 3 and outs. I think the big stat missing is our special teams terrible play that had our team having to defend from terrible field position. So even though there was a 3 and out, we still would be starting at our own 20 or 30 or further back. Our team also has been AWESOME when teams get in the redzone. Its almost like a whole different defense when teams threaten the endzone. I know, its a smaller field to defend which makes it easier on the defense, but the intensity seems to be higher. I’d like to see the more aggressive play-calling from goal-line to goal-line.
SKOL

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