Pick the Stat Lines: Running Backs

by Anthony21 on Jun 29, 2009 1:03 PM CDT in Minnesota Vikings

We've taken care of the quarterbacks, so let's move on to the running backs. Couple ground rules for this one: Based on the overwhelming evidence that Favre will be under center for the Vikings this season, let's assume these stats will occur with Brett as the starting quarterback, and let's also assume both Peterson and Taylor play 16 games.

With that out of the way, here are my predicted stat lines for Peterson and Taylor this season:

Peterson: 1,850 rushing yards, 5.2 yards per carry, 14 touchdowns

Taylor: 400 rushing yards, 4.3 yards per carry, 4 touchdowns

I think it's fair to say Peterson would see a bump in his yards per carry average with Favre as the team's starter -- Adrian is coming off a 4.8 yards per carry average last season. Still, despite the reduced pressure he'll face with a respected quarterback under center, I'm not willing to take the plunge and predict a 2,000 yard season. I'd like to make that prediction, but the Vikings will, after all, be throwing the ball more with Favre starting.

Just as I had a tough time predicting T-Jack's stats if he were to play a 16-game season as starting quarterback, Chester Taylor's a tough guy to peg for this season. In the end, I just wimped out and predicted essentially the same rushing stats that he put up from last year -- largely because I expect him to be a focal point of the passing attack this year. If they're not going to give him more touches on the ground, I'd like to see him get the ball more through the air.

So that's my take -- your turn!

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Comments

I agree with your stats

I think Peterson will have stats along those lines.

I also think CT will have stats similar to what you think. But IMO you have to put CT ’s total yards from scrimmage, and I think that is more like 700 yards, 7 TDs.

And don’t forget Harvin. I’m expecting 300 yards, 3 TDs from him out of the backfield this year.

by PurplePeopleEaters09 on Jun 29, 2009 1:49 PM CDT reply actions

What about Harvin?

I’m guessing 500 yards rushing, 600 receiving, with 9 TD. Maybe that’s optimistic.

by virginia viking on Jun 29, 2009 1:52 PM CDT reply actions

The real interesting question is, what will the receiving yards of the RBs be?

by puddnhead on Jun 29, 2009 1:57 PM CDT reply actions

The real REAL question is...

Is Nafu Tahi (spelling?) quietly thanking god he won’t have to take anymore 2- yard check down dump passes?

by Jepp The Viking on Jun 29, 2009 2:26 PM CDT reply actions

who says? it’s still on page 1 of the playbook!

by iseepurplepeople on Jun 30, 2009 10:06 AM CDT up reply actions

Good predictions

I agree with Peterson’s but I think Taylor could have around 800 total yards from scrimmage. I think some of you guys underlook him a little bit, which is understandable cause you have the best rb in the league, but Taylor really is a good back, and an exceptional 3rd down back.

I think Harvin will have between 300-500 total yards and 3 tds. He is too raw right now. I think most of his damage will be done on end arounds or out of the wildcat. He is too raw as a true wr right now.

by packallday555 on Jun 29, 2009 2:42 PM CDT reply actions

i agree with u about chester taylors stats but i dont think that harvin will start that many games, what could help us alot is a new #1 or a #2 reciver to back up berrian like marvin harrison or torry holt or a different free agent cuz berrian cant do it him self because rice aint that great

by C-Dubb on Jul 4, 2009 4:25 PM CDT up reply actions

I agree, both Adrian and Chester will probably see roughly the same stats with a small increase in production. Chester will have a bigger impact on the passing game, both with receiving and blocking.

I also agree with packallday555 on Harvin’s stats. I also just don’t see us using the wildcat a whole lot, so I can’t see him getting more than maybe 200 yards rushing.

In AP I trust
Just say no to Favre.
F-A-R-V-A =/= F-A-V-R-E

by FarvaForTheVikings on Jun 29, 2009 4:07 PM CDT reply actions

Just because we are not going to use the wildcat a lot, does not mean Harvin will have lower rushing stats.

I mean, we will still line him up in the backfield in normal packages and run him that way.

by Bjorno on Jun 29, 2009 5:05 PM CDT up reply actions

I just don’t expect the coaching staff to use him as a runner a whole lot. I hope I’m wrong, but with their infamous resistance to change and with AP and Chester, I just don’t see Harvin getting a whole lot of carries.

In AP I trust
Just say no to Favre.
F-A-R-V-A =/= F-A-V-R-E

by FarvaForTheVikings on Jun 29, 2009 6:18 PM CDT up reply actions

i agree. i see him more on end arounds maybe once or twice a game. he’ll be a wr primarily i think. but he’ll move around a lot. keep in mind he’s a rookie so unless he breaks out ala moss he won’t have a whole lot of touches regardless of where he lines up.

by iseepurplepeople on Jun 30, 2009 10:10 AM CDT up reply actions

Peterson: 2001 yards, 5.4 yards per carry, 15 TD

Taylor: 432 yards, 4.9 yards per carry, 4 TD

I just wanted to ask if we get a prize if we get these right at the end of the season. Can we get some sort of bragging rights?

by All Day, All Night on Jun 29, 2009 6:19 PM CDT reply actions

not worried about the #'s

I know the numbers will be good. I’m mostly worried about AP staying healthy. Even back in college the guy seems like he’s injury prone. If AP stays healthy, and many of the other key players stay healthy, everything else will fall in place and AP could potentially break 2000 yards, IMO.

by dsludo on Jun 29, 2009 7:15 PM CDT reply actions

How is he injury prone?

During his college career, he only missed one game (excluding the freak play where he summersaulted into the endzone and cracked his collar bone. In the two years that he’s been in the NFL, he has missed only 2 games (from a cheap shot from Al Harris IMO)

I just don’t see how that’s “injury prone”

I could be wrong

by PurplePeopleEaters09 on Jun 30, 2009 2:32 AM CDT up reply actions

My thoughts on RB and QB

Based upon the ground rules of presuming Favre is under center I would give AD 350 carries for 1785 yards and 13 TD’s and I would estimate Chester at 110 carries for 470 yards and 2 TD’s.

However, I would like to take the liberty to expand on this. If we presume T-Jack as the starter I would expect Peterson to still rush for just shy of 1800 yards, but on an additional 40 carries. I also think his TD numbers would go up at about 16. I would put Taylor at 120 carries for 490 yards and 3 TD’s. And if Sage were taking the snaps I think AD would drop to about 320 carries for 1500 and 12 TD’s and Chester falling to 100 carries for 410 yards and 2-3 TD’s.

I actually started thinking about this in the shower this morning when I was reflecting on Anthony’s QB post yesterday and wondering how that might impact our RB’s. Basically my thought process is that with Favre taking the snaps defenses will respect the passing game more which will ease the burden on Peterson. I also think that Chilly will be more inclined to open up the playbook early in the game. If T-Jack is the starter I feel the offense would stay very run focused resulting in the additional carries for Peterson and Taylor. With Sage under center I think the game plan opens up a little more, but not to Farvian levels, and that defenses will still stack to box in an attempt to stop our running game. I also feel that there wouldn’t be as many late leads to protect which would result in Rosenfels throwing more 4th quarter passes and reducing the opportunities for our runners.

Since I didn’t post this under the QB’s yesterday and have parlayed it to this post my QB thoughts are T-Jack with 375 attempts for 2750 yards, 20 TD’s and 12 picks; Favre with 450 attempts for 3550 yards, 24 TD’s and 15 picks; and Sage with 480 attempts for 3600 yards, 23 TD’s and 18 picks.

It's good to be King!

by The King on Jun 30, 2009 9:36 AM CDT reply actions

Harvin = Scat Back

I think your yardages are close… but in regards to Percy Harvin i think he will line up in the slot, as a half back, go in motion, as a wide out.. many places. get a lot of those 2 yard check downs but in his hands they could be 7 or more yards… he will do end arounds as mentioned. be used in play action. you name it. it will lighten the load for chester and AP which is good.

I noticed in year 2 vs year 1 AP tried to go through people as opposed to around them, he had less long plays the 2nd year. obviously he is keyed on and such more but still. He never got caught the first year and in the 2nd he got caught a few times

BUt all that said, I’d rather AP get only 1200 yards if it means no fumbles

cromscorner.blogspot.com

by Crom on Jun 30, 2009 12:39 PM CDT reply actions