Pick the Stat Lines: Receivers

by Anthony21 on Jun 30, 2009 3:49 PM CDT in Vikings Comment 20 comments

I've locked in my predictions for the stats I expect the Vikings quarterbacks and running backs to put up this season, so it's time to move on to the receivers. As usual, we're disregarding the possibility of injury and projecting these numbers over the course of a complete 16-game season -- and we're also assuming Favre's the starting quarterback.

I pegged Favre's numbers as: 3,700 passing yards, 26 TDs, 18 INTs, 65% completion. Now, I'll go ahead and try to predict how those stats will be distributed among the main factors in the team's receiving corps:

Berrian: 65 receptions, 1,100 receiving yards, 8 touchdowns

Harvin: 50 receptions, 700 receiving yards, 4 touchdowns

Rice: 35 receptions, 350 receiving yards, 3 touchdowns

Wade: 40 receptions, 400 receiving yards, 2 touchdowns

Shiancoe: 50 receptions, 650 receiving yards, 6 touchdowns

Taylor: 50 receptions, 400 receiving yards, 3 touchdowns

Harvin's obviously the wild card in this bunch -- but with the stats I predicted, he'd be averaging roughly three receptions and 41 receiving yards per game. He'll get more touches on the ground, as he caught 133 passes and carried the ball 194 times during his three seasons with the Gators.

I see Berrian breaking the 1,000-yard mark quite comfortably with Favre at the helm -- it certainly wouldn't be surprising to see him become a top-10 or top-15 receiver, yardage wise. Of all the receivers, he'll be a big winner with the switch to Favre. I'm also predicting Taylor's receiving numbers to stay more or less consistent with last season's, but I see Wade's numbers dipping a bit and I'm reluctant to predict a huge comeback effort for Rice. I'm expecting a modest bump in receiving yards for Shiancoe, who noted that Favre does indeed love throwing the ball to the tight end.

And on a final note, it's entirely possible I lowballed Favre when I predicted his numbers, as I ended up with just 100 yards to spare for Adrian Peterson, Jimmy Kleinsasser, Aundrae Allison, etc. after making my predictions for the six receivers above. I also failed to account for one-yard dump-offs to Tahi.

So these certainly aren't perfect predictions, but they're roughly what I'm expecting to see from the receiving corps this season. Feel free to make your own predictions in the comments.

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yea Jimmy usually gets a 15 yarder every couple of games that would be another 100 yds for the season plus the full back and AP I think you could add 300 yds to Farve’s season with no problem.

by montana vikes fan on Jun 30, 2009 3:58 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Berrian: 65 receptions, 1,100 receiving yards, 8 touchdowns

Harvin: 30 receptions, 400 receiving yards, 3 touchdowns

Rice: 45 receptions, 600 receiving yards, 6 touchdowns

Wade: 30 receptions, 325 receiving yards, 2 touchdowns

Shiancoe: 55 receptions, 700 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns

Taylor: 40 receptions, 325 receiving yards, 3 touchdowns

Once again, I kinda based my predictions of of yours. Just a few changes. I don’t expect Harvin to come anywhere close to 700 yards in his first year. He’ll be productive on special teams, and maybe running the ball occasionally. I think Rice will have a much better year than last year.

by PurplePeopleEaters on Jun 30, 2009 4:08 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Most likely am being nieve with the Shank prediction, but I have really high hopes for him this year.

by PurplePeopleEaters on Jun 30, 2009 4:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

*Naive.

by PurplePeopleEaters on Jun 30, 2009 4:11 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah same Shiancoe was on fire last season

"If at first you don't succeed - Skydiving isn't for you"

by Zoxide on Jun 30, 2009 5:30 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

What about AP???

I would be shocked if AP didn’t have at least 1 receiving TD.

by dsludo on Jun 30, 2009 5:54 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I think the numbers are pretty good, but I think we are gonna have to assume Rice is healthy for these stats. He is a big red zone target and I would put him closer to ten td’s.

by Bjorno on Jun 30, 2009 6:02 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I know that sounds like a lot, but he was built for the end zone.

by Bjorno on Jun 30, 2009 6:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hmm

I’m looking at this and all I can say is the numbers sound a little low to me considering the talent we’ve got and how the running game will affect Favre’s passing. I always tend to be optimistic but I’ll be shocked if Favre doesn’t put up better numbers than these. Assuming his arm is ok and that our O-line is a little stronger this year then I think we’re looking at a biiiiig season

by NYCVike on Jun 30, 2009 9:04 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Um...

Don’t feel like the Lone Ranger.

The truth is, the Vikings are like this T-Rex that is somehow waltzing directly toward the 2009 NFL season without even being seen. If they actually can hide in plain sight such a manner, the carnage is going to be just wonderfully horrific. Everyone seems to be presuming that the Williams Wall is going to be out of business for four weeks, Favre will have his arm in a sling all year, Favre is too old to remember that Shiancoe is a tight end, riots will break out in the locker room, Harvin will somehow become always easy to tackle due to the flu, Berrian will wear a pair of forty-pound lead weights on his ankles, E. J. won’t be glad to be back in the game again, Peterson will be kidnapped by some marauding pirates, and Jared will go off on some safari during the regular season and be eaten by a family of hungry crocodiles.

Those people are the ones who are being overly optimistic, and I love every one of them.

by Elgar on Jul 1, 2009 2:58 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

and another 10 for at least passable grammar and syntax. Please post more often.

by virginia viking on Jul 1, 2009 8:35 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The real reason

that all the receivers numbers should be up if F*#%$ing Farve is the QB is him trying to make up for the interceptions for touchdowns he will throw. Farves stat line 20 TDS 19 INTs 4000 yrds and of the 19, 6 of which will be game losing ints.

by bleedingpurplesince74 on Jul 1, 2009 11:09 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Your numbers look pretty good, except I just don’t see Harvin getting that many yards. I’m thinking 500 tops. Obviously I hope for more, but I just don’t see it happening.

In AP I trust
Just say no to Favre.
F-A-R-V-A =/= F-A-V-R-E

by FarvaForTheVikings on Jun 30, 2009 9:53 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree.

Maybe Harvin could get the same amount of rushign yards as receiving yards if not more. Ya never know.

"He didn’t call me or anything. It was an accident, but a lot of people would have called to see how someone is doing after they got hit in the head. Especially if they had to go on the DL." — Morneau on pitcher Ron Villone after an April 2005 beaning.

by Gonzo2 on Jul 1, 2009 3:20 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

i think your numbers are pretty good

maybe even too high. i know why you feel they may be too low and i think you’d be right when talking about any other team. but any other team doesn’t have ap. due to our rushing game, we don’t need or want huge numbers in the passing game. we have a good group of receivers and tight ends so it would be natural to assume good numbers for all or most of them but with ap, there just aren’t enough passing attempts to go around.

by iseepurplepeople on Jul 1, 2009 10:35 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

more like 18 TDs 26 INTs for 40 year old Favre

E-A-G-L-E-S EAGLES!!!

by Joe_D on Jul 1, 2009 4:00 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Go back to your cave Troll...

by ctowner35 on Jul 2, 2009 10:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don’t expect Harvin to have near that amount of yards.

Case of the beet bandit. Missing beets from all over the farm, no footprints. Inside job. Mose in socks. Boom. Case closed. -Dwight Schrute

by mjschaefer on Jul 1, 2009 6:43 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I expect a much better season in receiving for adrian

He needs to have a 400 yard and 4 touchdown season to help out brett. those numbers are kind of low anthony

by jv52yankees on Jul 4, 2009 4:51 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Looks good except...

…you should almost have a line for “other-600 yards” or something. Peterson, Saucer, Dugan, and some random WR’s will have some yards that individually are nothing but add up. Farve is known to spread the ball around so expect some of those guys to have a little more than normal. Last season the “other” guys added up to almost 500 yards.

I think the numbers are very accurate and realistic. Like any NFL season, someone on your list will come way under and someone way over, but it is a very good baseline.

Harvin is kind of the wild card. If anything on the list is off it would be the number of receptions and yards for the rookie receiver Harvin. It is totally achievable for a great rookie WR, but on a Vikings team that has Berrian and likes to run I just don’t know if I see that many passes attempted at him. Plus injury concerns almost have to be figured in a little bit.

I also think Berrian will have about the same year. Farve will help and hurt him. Berrian had a lot of bombs thrown at him sometimes out of the fact that we couldn’t do anything else. This season Brett might opt to go underneath more. At the same time, Brett is pretty good so those passes attempted to Berrian might be better quality.

And remember Farve is a master at the dump and screen plays. AP might have 300 or 400 yards receiving this season just on swings and dumps, especially if the Vikings are truly more balanced and teams respect the pass even with AP on the field..

by Sand0 on Jul 7, 2009 7:45 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs