Vikings-Lions sim results

by biggity2bit on Sep 18, 2009 1:20 PM CDT Comment 13 comments

It's a bit of a slow day at work, so I ran some quick sims of the Vikings-Lions. It was triggered by something PA said this morning on KFAN, and that was that last year the team seemed more anxious before games--even the Lions games--and this year they seem confident and relaxed. PA openly wondered if it was because, when they looked around last year at each other and saw guys like AD, Chester, Hutch, Berrian, Williams Wall, JA, our LBs, Winfield and more, they all thought that they should win except for the hit-or-miss play from QB. That one position could unravel it all, and this year with Favre there's none of that worry.

So my question is: should we really be worried about playing the Lions this weekend or should we relax and enjoy watching such a talent loaded Vikings squad and trust that they will take care of business handily?

The results after the jump.

The good news is that the Vikes went 56-7 (89% win rate) over the 63 simulations I ran, so I think we're going to be OK this weekend. Our average margin of victory was over 2 touchdowns, with the average score being 34-17.

The simulator I used allows you to tweak the offensive preferences between balanced, favor run, favor pass, and WCO. I ran three sets of 21 sims with different offensive parameters. Here are the results:

1). Both team offensively balanced.

Vikes go 20-1. Average score 36-19.

2. Vikes favor run, Lions are balanced.

Vikes go 19-2. Average score 33-18.

3. This is the scenario I think is most likely, and the group of sims that yields the greatest insight of what to watch for this weekend:

Vikes favor run, Lions favor pass.

Vikes go 17-4. Average score 33-17. In the four losses there was one similarity that trumped turnover margin (which we won in 3 of the 4 sims), sacks, or anything else, and that was this: a big game (100 yards+ with 2 TDs) by Calvin Johnson combined with a subpar game (less than 100 yards and 1 TD or less) from Adrian Peterson. If Adrian has a good game and Calvin has a good game, we win. If Adrian has bad game and Calvin has a bad game, we win. It's only when Adrian is really bad and Calvin does what he's supposed to that we have a chance of losing.

For what it's worth, the scoring average in our 7 losses: Lions win 28-21.

Poll

Which of these is the most likely result next weekend?

Vikings give up more than 13 points

53 votes

Vikings give up less than 13 points

79 votes

132 votes | Poll has closed

This FanPost was created by a registered user of The Daily Norseman, and does not necessarily reflect the views of the staff of the site. However, since this is a community, that view is no less important.

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13 pts

i voted yes because i believe the end of the game will not mater and they may score a second td in the final minutes

by montana vikes fan on Sep 18, 2009 2:47 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

less than 13

I think the vikes give up one TD and a field goal, while the D picks off a Stafford pass and takes it all the way. I have a hard time believing that the d would give up more than 13 net points (considering D points scored).

by TheEvilProfessor on Sep 18, 2009 3:07 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

montana vikes

You mean like last week. I think this years version of the Vikes is more confident. Last week I said that barring a lot of penalties and at least 3 turnovers that there woundn’t be a problem. Two penalties, no turnovers, no problem. Nice job on the penalties guys.
After watching preseason I thought oh boy. This team is loaded, we all know it.
The only game this whole season that they will be the underdog is probably the Steelers. Maybe the Giants if we have the division in hand by then. Unless we have a rash of bad penalties (drive killers or TD’s called back) and multiple turnovers I don’t think that there will be to many on the L side. The better team wins most of the time. We are the better team.

by iowaron on Sep 18, 2009 3:31 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

More than 13

I actually voted more than 13 because I think something’s going to happen for Detroit between their passing game and turnovers/special teams. Having said that, perhaps I should have phrased the poll question as “How many points will the Vikings have given up five minutes into the fourth quarter?”

I agree with iowaron that this team is loaded, confidant, and is playing like it. I really do think that there is not team in the NFL right now that they don’t have a fair chance at beating. Doesn’t mean that they will beat them, but I don’t think there’s any reason to be frightened by the Steelers. Respect them, yes, but not frightened by them.

"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."

by biggity2bit on Sep 18, 2009 3:41 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

yes like last week

I think a lot of games could end that way this year. solidly controling the game until the 4th and pulling the starters to save injury.

by montana vikes fan on Sep 18, 2009 7:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

good numbers...

22 passing plays, 37 rushing plays – 310yds

225yds rushing – 180 by Adrian on 25 carries
85 yds passing

22 on Brett
25 on Adrian

Those are good numbers if you are thinking about the whole season.

I believe the 'push off' cost us 'our' SuperBowl...
I believe you 'go for the win'... instead of 'taking a knee'...

by ArizonaVikingsFan on Sep 18, 2009 8:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

more passing yardage

I think we’ll see, with the number of attempts you’ve outline, close to twice as much yardage at least. You’re talking a paltry 3.86 yards per attempt by Mr. Favrah. His career average is 7.01 ypa. If we go with that he should net around 154 yards. If you browse and compare some of the stats at FootballOutsiders.com of the Vikings and the Lions you see that the writing’s on the wall for Detroit. They simply lack too much talent. And yes, small sample size caveat included, Detroit still lacks too much talent, especially on the defensive side of the ball.

I looked at Favre’s passing percentages of the last 5-6 years a couple of weeks ago because I was interested in finding out how prior injuries affected his performance. If I recall correctly, he had one of his better season after he injured his thumb (at least in terms of completion %). My point is that I think Favre will post high completion numbers again this year, and against Detroit this weekend that will translate in a few long YAC completions which will move his yardage northwards.

"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."

by biggity2bit on Sep 18, 2009 11:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I've been saying it from the day Brett Favre signed

Oct.25 will be the Super Bowl matchup. Vikes vs. Steelers.

by Freddyd on Sep 18, 2009 4:26 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

So....

What does that have to do with the Vikings-Lions game?

by Bjorno on Sep 18, 2009 5:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pasing yardage....

We wont average alot of passing yardage..because we dont have to….We can run and throw, alot diff than in past recent years…….

by WVVikings on Sep 19, 2009 3:06 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

The Vikes have better offense, defense, and yes, special teams

Vikes will balance the run and pass, defense will get a few turnovers and set the offense up on a short field, and special teams return will do the same. Vikes will jump out to an early lead, make the Lions one dimensional, and punsh Matthew Stafford with blitzes coming from everywhere, and I think they will mask a lot of their coverage to make it look like something else, and thoroughly confuse him.

Vikes win this game by two scores minimum.

Brett Favre is a Viking, and John Smoltz is a Cardinal. The Cubs and Packers still suck. The more things change, the more they stay the same.

by MilCardFan on Sep 19, 2009 2:15 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I think the Lions are going to try out that running game heavily again. They tried it against the Saints, and you could argue it cost the game, I suppose, but with Stafford looking shaky under center, and the best Run D coming to their stadium, it’d be a good test of Kevin Smith and that O-line. So I don’t see them passing as much as we think. They’ll be wanting to protect Stafford anyways, and we got after their QB quite a few times last season, and they kept practically the same O-line.

by Frost on Sep 20, 2009 9:50 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Spot on

It will be similar to the Browns game plan against you guys week 1. They’ll try and “protect” Stafford a bit and probably be pretty conservative, though they will try some deep balls to CJ.

by packallday555 on Sep 20, 2009 11:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs