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Can the Vikings Keep from Getting Gore-d This Sunday?

This Sunday's matchup between the 2-0 San Francisco 49ers and the 2-0 Minnesota Vikings in Minneapolis will feature two of the top three running backs, in terms of yardage, after the first two weeks of the NFL season.  Adrian Peterson leads the NFL with 272 rushing yards, while San Francisco's Frank Gore is in third with 237.  Given the relative lack of punch to this point from the passing offenses of both teams. . .Minnesota is dead last in the league in passing yardage with 119 yards/game, while San Francisco is 30th at 152.5. . .it's sufficient to say that the focus of both defenses will be on shutting down two of the league's premiere backs.

Adrian Peterson has been characterized by some as a bit of a "boom-or-bust" type of running back, implying that he'll either break a big run against you or he'll get stuffed for little to no gain.  While that may be true, the first two weeks of Frank Gore's 2009 season appear to be the very definition of "boom-or-bust."  To wit, here's a breakdown of how much yardage each of Gore's carries gained in San Francisco's first two games of the year:

Week 1:  -2, -3, 3, 1, 0, 0, 3, 2, 6 (touchdown), 4, 0, 2, -1, 4, 3, 2 (fumble), 1, -4, 5, 3, -2
Final Result:  22 carries, 30 yards, 1 TD, 1 fumble, Niners beat Cardinals 20-16

Week 2:  1, 4, 5, 2, 6, 6, 79 (touchdown), 1, 9, 13, 0, 80 (touchdown), 1, 1, -3, 3
Final Result:  16 carries, 207 yards, 2 TD, Niners beat Seahawks 23-10

Gore is averaging 6.2 yards/carry through the first two games.  Outside of his two huge touchdown runs against the Seahawks, he's averaging a slightly less impressive 2.2 yards/carry.  I don't know if Gore's early season inconsistency is an indicator of things to come, but it does show that he's capable of breaking off the big play just like Adrian Peterson is.  Pat Williams and E.J. Henderson have had a couple of weeks to get into game shape and shake the rust off, respectively, and their performance against the run is going to play a huge role in the Vikings' success against the Niners this weekend.  The entire front seven will have to maintain their gaps and keep Gore contained.

With all due respect to Shaun Hill and his 9-3 record as the 49ers starter thus far in his career, I'm not sure if he can take a team into a Metrodome that should be rocking and knock off the Beloved Purple without a solid performance from Gore.  While Hill is 9-3 as a starting quarterback, his road victories have come against Arizona (twice), Buffalo, and St. Louis. . .and, with all due respect to those teams, none of them present the sort of environment that Hill and company should find themselves walking into on Sunday.

Of course, if Frank Gore busts another huge run or two, the Dome is going to be awfully quiet.  Let's hope, for our sake, that that doesn't happen.

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Gonzo

Gore only has 237 rushing yards, not 253.

by Figgs on Sep 25, 2009 9:40 AM CDT reply actions  

Noted and edited

Thanks!

The Daily Norseman - The greatest Vikings' site on the Internet!

by Christopher Gates on Sep 25, 2009 9:44 AM CDT up reply actions  

What I want to see this Sunday is...

…an O-line that gives Favre the time he needs to throw the ball over 20yds and not just check it down. Besides that, I want to see the Vikings drive the ball and execute well in the 1st and 2nd half.

Is that too much to ask? We’ll see, but I hope this team is starting to believe in itself and realize now is the time to step up with the talent they have!

by solafide on Sep 25, 2009 10:16 AM CDT reply actions  

Helpful!

Peterson is running much better this year in terms of picking holes and using blockers on plays that he does NOT break open. I have not looked at the stats, but it appears to me that if you were to take away his huge runs, his average yards per carry would still be much higher than they were his 1st 2 seasons. I think Bienemy is starting to get through….

Buffalo is not a very easy place for a visiting team to play. Depending on the weather, it could be even more hostile than the Metrodome. When did Hill play in Buffalo?

While I agree that Kevn and Pat Williams are important in “stuffing” the run, the real key to preventing a back from breaking long runs is the Middle Linebacker. Henderson was out of position alot against the Lions. And he has more rust to shake off than anyone. So I am thinking the real key on Sunday with respect to the running games is going to be the play of Henderson and Willis, which in turn puts the spotlight on whomever is supposed to block those guys. For us, I think that means Herrera and Hutch have to be at the top of their game, cuz I suspect Willis will be. I hope EJ is.

Go Vikes!

TiggerSr

by TiggerSr on Sep 25, 2009 10:19 AM CDT reply actions  

Adrian no longer boom or bust, not that he ever much was.

In the first two games he has shown to be able to get 4,5 & 6 yard gains on plays where the home-run isn’t available. He will be getting stuffed less this year and if the Niners want to completely sell out to stop him than Favre should have his first field day.

Bernard, Percy and AP oh my!

by VikesPma on Sep 25, 2009 11:59 AM CDT up reply actions  

True

If you look at Football Outsiders RB stats through the first two games of this year, you’ll see that one of these backs is not like the other.

Terms:
DYAR—defense-adjusted yards above replacement (adj. for situation and opponent, measures how much better/worse a player produced compared to the NFL average)
DVOA—defense-adjusted value over average (better percentage = better performance compared to NFL average)
Eyards—translates DVOA into a yards per attempt average and, based on number of carries thus far, yields a player’s ‘effective’ yardage total
Success—how successful their runs are. High DVOA with low success = getting stuffed a lot with a few long runs. Low DVOA with high success = Leroy Hoard.

AD:
DYAR = 72
DVOA = 28.7%
Eyards = 285 (to 269 actual yards, net +16 yards)
Success = 60% (not getting stuffed at line of scrimmage hardly at all)

Gore:
DYAR = 24
DVOA = 7.6%
Eyards = 169 (to 237 actual yards, net -68 yards)
Success = 37%

What does this tell us? Two things—first, Gore’s per play production this year is not as good as his season total would suggest. He’s producing as top 15-20 RB so far this year on a per play basis. And second, AD is not pulling a Gore and inflating his stats by ripping a few long runs to offset a dozen 1 and 2 yarders. He’s top 5 so far on per play production across the board.

"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."

by biggity2bit on Sep 25, 2009 2:09 PM CDT up reply actions  

+10000000

I get hot for real statistical analysis

by RipHimToShreds on Sep 26, 2009 5:11 AM CDT up reply actions  

Perspective

Certainly puts the two RB performances into an objective perspective, wherein you can see that Gore will have to be REAL lucky, versus AD who just has to do what he does…..Thanks for that analysis!

Useful amunition for use against “those other guys” advocating an upset possible for the Niners….AD and D and all the tools we have such as Farvin will make that just what it is (hope anyway)…hot air!

It will not be an easy win, but over the game, Vikings will wear down the Niners and we will again win, I think by two touchdowns (falls into the blowout category for me based on the team we are playing, and the intensity they will play at)…

Go VIKES!

I would rather be IN the Arena than watching from the stands...That is my life!
* Read Teddy Roosevelt's "Man in the Arena" if you need further explanation...

by vikingfanfrom afar on Sep 26, 2009 8:34 AM CDT up reply actions  

Peterson

Whether he has a big game or not controls the opponents D-Game Plan.

The one thing any opponent of the Vikings knows is they have to contain AP, so that’s what they get off the bus trying to do (as much as possible).

All things on the Vikings O come directly from AP… as they should, he’s the best back in football.

by sabbath999 on Sep 25, 2009 2:43 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'm hoping

Our guys are stout in two areas; run-defense and o-line. Make 49ers put the ball in the air, give Favre some time to make a decision, and let the wide-outs get open.

I’m also not concerned about Peterson this week in terms of getting stuffed. It’s been 2 years and the guy has learned a lot. He’s probably foaming at the mouth for this game.

Since this topic is about Gore, I’ll say this. The potential for him to have a big game is definitely there, he’s a great RB. Our D-Line is probably pissed they’ve let so many yards go already and they’re looking to end that. I’m putting Gore between 70 and 80 yards with a short yardage TD from within the red-zone.

by Figgs on Sep 25, 2009 10:20 AM CDT reply actions  

Furthermore

I’m hoping this is the Gore we see:

On the bench and looking depressed!

Go Vikes!

by Figgs on Sep 25, 2009 10:26 AM CDT up reply actions  

Offensive Blocking is the weakest link

As it has always been with our beloved Vikings, offensive blocking or lack-there-of, is the weakest link. Gary Zimmermen, and Ron Yary were the best. But since 1962 to 2009 is a long long time to have only 2 great offensive linemen. True running teams have two great O-linemen on the same team at the same time. That is something the Vikings don’t seem to grasp or understand. Having two or three good running backs wont do much good if they don’t get any help in the blocking department.

As good as Peterson is, he could look alot better, (as could all of the running backs), with better blockers up front. Therefor if we expect Peterson to get 200 yards a game, we should give him the best blocking we can.

The same goes for Favre and the wide-recievers. If the QB doesn’t have time to look over every reciever. That restricts our weapons by 3 or 4 fold.

The offensive line is the ignition, that starts the offense in motion, on every play.

by vnbushman on Sep 25, 2009 11:04 AM CDT reply actions  

Only two?

Randall McDaniel? Ed White? Matt Birk? Mick Tinglehoff? Korey Stringer? Hutchinson? Jeff Christy?

TiggerSr

by TiggerSr on Sep 25, 2009 11:20 AM CDT reply actions  

O-Line

It seems to me that the O-Line problem is the center position ( not surprising) and Loadholt. Two new members must learn their positions in relation to the rest of the line. Their run blocking is fair but the 8 in the box stops the run play. When they perfect the pass block everything will open up.

As an aside I don’t believe Gore will run for 100 yds against our D-line. The tackling last week by Gores opponent was atrocious. Not that easy for him this week. I also believe that the San Fran secondary is suspect. If they can’t bring pressure up front they are toast.

by lifelongvike on Sep 25, 2009 11:31 AM CDT up reply actions  

The 'new' kids...

ARE going to be the ‘target’ for a Defense, No?

I believe the 'push off' cost us 'our' SuperBowl...
I believe you 'go for the win'... instead of 'taking a knee'...

by ArizonaVikingsFan on Sep 25, 2009 12:12 PM CDT up reply actions  

8 men in the box

Wake up, y’all!! When the Vikes line up with 3 TE’s, you are going to see 9 in the box every time. When they line up with 2 TE’s, you will often see 8 in the box. That is normal. It does NOT men the run will fail. If everyone makes their block, it is like every other run play — if AD can make one guy miss, it is a big gainer. When AD had his Superman run against the Browns, the Browns had 9 men i hte box BECAUSE the Vikes lined up with 3 TE’s.

8 in the box doesn’t stop the run play if we line up with 2 TE’s and everyone executes their blocks.

The problem is the run blitz! It’s hard to execute your block against LB’s or CB’s that are blitzing. The way to beat the run blitz is with the slant or with everyone on the line and AD picking up the blit and buring it with a longer throw to Harvin, or Berrian. Or with a well-executed screen.

TiggerSr

by TiggerSr on Sep 25, 2009 1:00 PM CDT up reply actions  

+10 we’ve had several good o-linemen

Green Bay or the Windy City..... There but for the Grace of God go I.

by IABerserker1 on Sep 25, 2009 12:24 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions  

Remember when we had

Todd Steusie, Randall McDaniel, Jeff Christy, David Dixon, and Korey Stringer?

That was a good line, Steussie’s false starts and holding included.

"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."

by biggity2bit on Sep 25, 2009 2:11 PM CDT up reply actions  

Honestly

I just have this fealing that we are going to abuse the 9er’s this week. I don’t know why…but I can sense it comming. 35-17

by Jepp The Viking on Sep 25, 2009 11:36 AM CDT reply actions  

Agree

I think this will be a blowout in our favor. Why? There is a lot of pent up desire to excel on the Vikings team to include:

  - “Yes we can” D (stop the run)
  - Offensive line (we CAN protect Favre and make BIG holes for AD and Taylor and Harvin)
  - Favre (yes I can throw the ball more than 10 yards if I NEED to)
  - Harvin (see what I can DO)
  - Shiancoe/Berrien (Berrien has more to prove, he has not been a big factor, and has had an additional week to get his groove with Favre….

  Add in the factors that it is the first home game, and the ’fans….

  All the ingredients are there….now they must just execute!

  I would not care which team we are up against, but Niners will certainly be more of a test than we have had the last two weeks….

  This is not supposed to be easy, so no issue, we need to start finding out if we are real or not…

  Will be “watching” and (hopefully) listening/following DN game day blog with EXTREME interest, as I am sure we all will….

  SKOL!

I would rather be IN the Arena than watching from the stands...That is my life!
* Read Teddy Roosevelt's "Man in the Arena" if you need further explanation...

by vikingfanfrom afar on Sep 25, 2009 12:09 PM CDT up reply actions  

Plus...

…the pent up All Day Factor.

Does anyone else see the gleem in the eye of that guy who had his worst day as a rookie because he tried to improvise rather than let the play develop as designed while Chester Taylor followed the script and hit the century mark in the very same game against the Niners?

If you read between the lines of the guy who had a “weak back” from about a “week back”,
he’s saying out loud Willis is a good football player (and not saying out loud “the very kind I’d like to play against to prove that my rookie-mistake days are a thing of the past”).

by Elgar on Sep 25, 2009 12:51 PM CDT up reply actions  

Bernard

Berrian could have his first big game of the year.

Bernard, Percy and AP oh my!

by VikesPma on Sep 25, 2009 12:01 PM CDT reply actions  

hate to say it but

I expect the vikes to struggle on the first two drives. MS will have a game plan to stop us initially. Where we need to excel and have to this point is in the 3rd and 4th. This is when Loadholt and the O line start to push people around. Last week AD only had 92 yards but did not carry the ball much in the 4th.

To win keep it close in the 1st half no mistakes and one or two scores for us. Then blow them out in the 3rd and 4th. D keeps us in the game no big plays against us in the first half then the pressure is on the passing game of the 9ers in the second…here come the turnovers.

Expect Farve 200 yds 2 td’s AD 150 2 td’s

it is better to be thought of as dumb then to open your mouth and remove all doubt.
Ben Franklin

by montana vikes fan on Sep 25, 2009 12:58 PM CDT reply actions  

Gore is a really good RB, but I'm not overly worried...

The runners that have gotten us in the past are all quick, off-tackle guys that go wide on those stretch runs. Gore is VERY much a strong, between the tackles runner. He’s a good receiver on their screens though…that’s where I’d worry about him. Overall, I expect us to be able to contain him on Sunday though.

Vikes by 7-10 points, IMO.

"I'm gonna make you cry...I'm gonna make you cry and dip my cookie in your tears!!!"

by mutleyil on Sep 25, 2009 1:16 PM CDT reply actions  

All I saw was highlights

but the 9rs had some quick pitches to the fullback who got some chunks of yardage going to the outside. The long runs by Gore were created by some great blocking and having the box stacked. I don’t see the clash of lines playing out that way again. The backs also got some easy yards when they were completly uncovered on dump off passes. That shouldn’t happen either.

There was also a Seahawks receiver who let a beautiful throw by Wallace hit him in the hands and then bounce to the defender. Those are back breakers.

by Salty on Sep 25, 2009 1:32 PM CDT up reply actions  

Jamal Lewis

Is a big, between the tackles type runner, and he was giving us problems. No long runs, but a lot of 4-6 yarders. Gore could be an issue this week.

"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."

by biggity2bit on Sep 25, 2009 2:12 PM CDT up reply actions  

IF our D can play like they did all last year

and the way we know they can play, I’m not worried about Gore…not that he is not good, but because I feel our D is more than adequate of shutting him down if they play like they can/should

by Spoolinup on Sep 25, 2009 2:44 PM CDT up reply actions  

i am not afraid of Gore. Anyone that saw Gore’s runs against Seattle should know that such a play would be impossible against our defense. It was pretty embarrassing to watch (until I realized I hate Seattle).

Gore will be held to 50 yards or less and it will come down to Shaun Hill to put up some yardage, something he hasn’t done much of in his career.

PS, It should be mentioned that Peterson is only a boom or bust player when facing 8 and 9 man fronts. If teams felt like putting 7 guys in the box against us, the rest of the league would see just how booming he could be.

by Cobra312004 on Sep 25, 2009 2:43 PM CDT reply actions  

no problem

Turnovers are our only enemy in this game. The great equalizer mistakes. Barring multiple turnovers I can’t see us losing this game. San Fran maybe a respectable team but we have something to prove and I just think that we are going to get it done.

by iowaron on Sep 26, 2009 2:09 AM CDT reply actions  

More weapons this year lets use them all starting now

The Vikings have had several weeks now to figure out this new offense, and our new weapons. I look for some “wild cat stuff” this weekend. That will give that box thing something to think about. The key is (as always), the O-Line. It all starts, or ends, with them. The Vikings should manage at least 23 or 24 points.

The Niners are no joke. The are for real. And they will come here to play their best game. They are very good on defense. But the Vikings have (or should have) a much better offense this year. This game will be a good test for our Vikes. Childress has to shift gears for this one. Lets see if the players can play at the next, higher level, on defense, and on offense.

Vikes – 24
Niners – 17

by vnbushman on Sep 26, 2009 5:14 AM CDT reply actions  

I think a big key

to winning this game and getting AP a chance to run is the 10 to 20 yard passing game…running routes behind the LB’s to slow their rush and to back the DB’s off the line.
The Vikes need to run some more screens as well to slow the pass rush…doing this until it slows them, Do you folks recall the Pats game were they continued to burn us with these…even so much as running them back to back on plays! Vinny and Harvin are a big key to getting behind the LB’s…lets hope we see some of this early to give AP the room he needs.

by vikefan1969 on Sep 27, 2009 9:34 AM CDT reply actions  

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