49ers-Vikings Sims

by biggity2bit on Sep 25, 2009 3:42 PM CDT Comment 18 comments

I did this last week, and it turned out fairly accurate (at least in predicting a two TD victory for the Vikes), so I thought I'd do it again for this game and see what the major storylines are.

This time I ran 60 sims with the assumption that both teams are going to favor the run. The results are a lot closer than last week--Vikes win 35, 49ers win 25 (a 58% chance of winning).

On the whole the Vikings score more points, and win by a slightly larger margin (on average) than the 49ers did (we win by 13 on average, and when we lose it's by 9 on average).

Looking at just our losses, one big trend emerges: Gore outrushes Adrian, by about 30-40 yards. Interestingly neither QB turns it over hardly at all, and don't toss for many TDs either. In fact, in close games (3 points difference or less), the QBs really don't influence the outcome of the game much at all. Both teams often overcome negative sack and turnover differentials to win, with the victor of the AD/Gore sweepstakes always determining the winner (in about 10-12 game sample size). Sacks are also pretty consistent, with about 2-3 for each team per game.

So let's hope Adrian is motivated and has a big game, because however he goes is how we go this game.

Poll

Which is more likely?

Adrian rushes for less than 75 yards

46 votes

Gore rushes for more than 100 yards

60 votes

106 votes | Poll has closed

This FanPost was created by a registered user of The Daily Norseman, and does not necessarily reflect the views of the staff of the site. However, since this is a community, that view is no less important.

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Trick question

The first answer is impossible =)
Therefore I default to answer 2, although I don’t think it will happen.

by Figgs on Sep 25, 2009 3:47 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Nice

"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."

by biggity2bit on Sep 25, 2009 4:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

How do you do these simulations?

by niners84 on Sep 25, 2009 5:03 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I use this. I have no idea about what algorithms they use, but I like how you can tweak things a little bit—passing preference or running, lineups, etc. Basically what I’m most interested in with doing these isn’t “are we going to win this game” but rather, what trends are emerging between wins and losses? And, when the game is actually played, does that hold true? Last week the only time Detroit won was when Calvin Johnson had a huge game. Granted it was Detroit, but they looked alright when he was involved. Take him out, Vikes win in a landslide. This week’s dynamic, like I said earlier, seems to come down to AD vs. Gore more than their defense sacking us more than us sacking them, or us turning the ball over more than them. If AD runs well, this game tilts a lot more towards us, even if Hill starts passing like Brees (he only won once in 60 sims doing that).

Oh ya, the other thing that came out was that Jared Allen consistently got 2+ sacks, so we’ll see how accurate that is.

"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."

by biggity2bit on Sep 25, 2009 8:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is why i think it'll be huge to score a touchdown first

And put the ball in the hands of Hill.

by Freddyd on Sep 25, 2009 5:56 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

The ball will only be in the hands of Hill for a split second as he’s handing off to Gore.

by niners84 on Sep 25, 2009 6:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yet another

QB who could have been an improvement over Vikings’ QBs in the past few years.

by KC Viking on Sep 25, 2009 7:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

-1

due to poll question

by dsludo on Sep 25, 2009 7:36 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Agree

I did not like either choice….Both not desirable for Vikings, where is our ’druthers? No biggee, just did not participate/pick either one! Will “watch” on internet (sorta) live tomorrow night! Go Vikings!

I would rather be IN the Arena than watching from the stands...That is my life!
* Read Teddy Roosevelt's "Man in the Arena" if you need further explanation...

by vikingfanfrom afar on Sep 26, 2009 8:26 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Do you have a link for the game?

they’re showing the packers rams snoozefest where I live.

by dsludo on Sep 26, 2009 4:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

search

justin.tv before gametime…

I believe the 'push off' cost us 'our' SuperBowl...
I believe you 'go for the win'... instead of 'taking a knee'...

by ArizonaVikingsFan on Sep 26, 2009 5:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

the poll

adrian almost never rushes for less then 100 yards at home, I am not sure if this has happened. I remember last year his yards per carry at home were about 2 yards more per carry at home. I perdict 150 for AD!

it is better to be thought of as dumb then to open your mouth and remove all doubt.
Ben Franklin

by montana vikes fan on Sep 25, 2009 11:24 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I think he did against the Bears his rookie year, on a monday or sunday night game. The only reason I remember this is because I had him in fantasy and only needed like 10 points from him to win but I didn’t get :(! Haha just thought I’d share. But you bring up a great point. Every game I think of for you guys at home it seems like he had more then 100 yards. He always seems to break a long one at home as well. It should be interesting to see if he breaks one today.

by packallday555 on Sep 27, 2009 10:44 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

This poll's options were tough

But I wanted to force people to come down on one side or the other leading into this game. It’s easy to want AD to go for 100+ or say that Gore won’t get 100 because that’s what we want and expect as Vikings fans. I guess I was interested in finding out what fear Vikes fans were more concerned about—that the 49ers really are AD kryptonite or that our rush defense really is slumping.

"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."

by biggity2bit on Sep 26, 2009 10:08 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I think your options are pretty realistic!

I picked AP to have less than 75 yards rushing. The 49ers will sell-out on the run again, so Favre will have to win this one in the air.
The Vikings run-defense has had a couple rough starts. They gave-up 90 yards rushing in the 1st half last week. EJ is sore, and Gore is a monster!

Go Vikes!

by chaosg on Sep 26, 2009 11:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

If anybody is AD kryptonite, it’s the Lions. He’s fumbled the ball 5 times against them in 4 games. The ’9ers stopped Peterson for one. Lets not get ahead of ourselves. That would be like saying that any time we play the Cardinals we need to start Jackson because he threw for 4 TDs against them.

Personally, I don’t think Peterson will get his usual 100 yards. But then again neither will Gore. Run up the middle? Against Kevin and Pat? Yeah, we’ll see how long that lasts. My guess is not very.

by Frost on Sep 26, 2009 11:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Personally

I think Peterson gets his 100 yards and Gore doesn’t. I think that the veterans on the Vikings see this game as a statement game, and for how this year has turned out thus far I think what we’re going to be seeing tomorrow from the vets is execution, execution, and execution. It might not always be the most entertaining, but I think the vets are going to want to put their cleat on the Niners’ throats and not let up until we have a decisive win. AD will get his 100, but he may only get a handful over 100. I think the Williams Wall and LBs stay in their lanes and focus more on keeping Gore from breaking a long run than keeping him to a 2 YPA average. And I think BF gets his first 250 passing yard day in Purple, matched by Hill’s 250 yard passing day. Final score—24-21.

"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."

by biggity2bit on Sep 26, 2009 11:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

“Run up the middle? Against Kevin and Pat? Yeah, we’ll see how long that lasts. My guess is not very.”

I would agree but if you would have told me that Lewis and Smith both had great success up the middle I never would have believed it. I don’t think the problem is so much Kevin and Pat but EJ.

I’m actually pretty excited to watch this game. Favre will likely be forced to throw. Gore is one of the better backs in the league and your run defense has struggled thus far. And with Willis and Spikes, the 49ers have some darn good LBs. It should be interesting.

by packallday555 on Sep 27, 2009 10:42 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs