Checking the Numbers: 49ers-Vikings Game

by WolfpackSteelersFan on Sep 28, 2009 7:23 PM CDT

Hello, Daily Norseman readers! This is a post that I wrote at my blog, Checking the Numbers. I thought that you may be interested, so I shared it with Gonzo, and he thought you may also. So here it is! I hope you enjoy it. To see the original post, you can click here.

MINNEAPOLIS - SEPTEMBER 27: <a class='sbn-auto-link' href=

Brett Favre #4 of the Minnesota Vikings is chased out of the pocket by Justin Smith #94 of the San Francisco 49ers at the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome on September 27, 2009 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

On Sunday afternoon, the San Francisco 49ers and Minnesota Vikings played a game that went down to the wire, with a last second Brett Favre TD pass sealing the win for Minnesota. In a game where the 49ers seemed have pulled the road upset, Favre proved that the Vikings made the right decision to convince him to come out of retirement one more time. Minnesota needed an unbelievable play win this close game. By looking at the statistics, can that help understand what these two teams did to get that point? As I have done with several games in this season, here I wanted to look at this game from my own analytical perspective.

More... More... More...

In this post, I took the box score stats from the game and compared how each team did against a combination of their season averages from the 2008 season and the 2009 season. Up to this point, I had been using only 2008, but I have begun incorporating 2009 numbers as well. For each team, I average per game for all games played in 2008 and 2009 prior to this weekend as the baseline.

So, anyway, on to the numbers! (Box Scores taken from Yahoo! Sports and 2008/2009 averages from Pro-Football-Reference.com). Below, I have four tables.

49ers' Offensive Boxscore vs. 49ers' Offensive Averages

The first table is a comparison of San Francisco's offensive numbers from this game with their average numbers from the beginning of the 2008 season up until last week. This gives an indication as to how well the Vikings' defense performed in this game because it shows whether the 49ers' offensive numbers were above or below their game averages.

Team Statistics	Vikings' Def vs. 49ers' Off
	SF	SFAvgOff	% Difference
First Downs	13	17.56	-25.95%
Passing	8	10.72	-25.39%
Rushing	3	5.11	-41.30%
TOTAL NET YARDS	246	308.89	-20.36%
Total Plays	52	60.06	-13.41%
Average Gain Per Play	4.7	5.14	-8.62%
NET YARDS RUSHING	58	104.22	-44.35%
Rushes	26	25.06	3.77%
Average Per Rush	2.2	4.16	-47.11%
NET YARDS PASSING	188	204.67	-8.14%
Yards Per Pass Play	7.2	5.85	23.13%
Times Sacked	1	3.5	-71.43%
Had Intercepted	1	1.06	-5.26%
Fumbles Lost	0	0.94	-100.00%

The Vikings' defense did a great job on the 49ers' offense, holding them below their average offensive output in just about every category. They did a particularly good job stopping SF's rushing game. It probably didn't help that Frank Gore left due to injury. The 49ers' main positives in this game offensively were in sacks (over 70% below their average), and turnovers. They had no fumbles lost, while they had been averaging about one lost per game.

Vikings' Offensive Boxscore vs. 49ers' Defensive Averages

The second table is a comparison of the Vikings' offensive numbers from the game to the 49ers' defensive averages. This tells us how the Vikings' offense performed compared to 49ers' defensive averages.

Team Statistics	Vikings' Off vs. 49ers' Def
	MIN	SFAvgDef	% Difference
First Downs	19	18.28	3.95%
Passing	14	10.83	29.23%
Rushing	2	6.11	-67.27%
TOTAL NET YARDS	377	322.11	17.04%
Total Plays	75	64.22	16.78%
Average Gain Per Play	5	5.02	-0.31%
NET YARDS RUSHING	94	100.83	-6.78%
Rushes	27	27.33	-1.22%
Average Per Rush	3.5	3.69	-5.12%
NET YARDS PASSING	283	221.28	27.89%
Yards Per Pass Play	5.9	6	-1.64%
Times Sacked	2	1.89	5.88%
Had Intercepted	1	0.83	20.00%
Fumbles Lost	0	0.33	-100.00%

The Vikings' offense performed pretty well in this game. They were below the 49ers' average rushing yards allowed, but in most categories they were near or better than San Francisco's averages. In particular, Minnesota passed for nearly 30% above their opponent's average.

Vikings' Offensive Boxscore vs. Vikings' Offensive Averages

The third table compares the Vikings' offensive output in this game against their average offensive output from 2008 and so far in 2009. So, it gives an indication as to how the 49ers' defense performed against the Vikings' offensive averages.

Team Statistics	49ers' Def vs. Vikings' Off
	MIN	MIN AvgOff	% Difference
First Downs	19	18.28	3.95%
Passing	14	9.28	50.90%
Rushing	2	7.61	-73.72%
TOTAL NET YARDS	377	325.72	15.74%
Total Plays	75	62.94	19.15%
Average Gain Per Play	5	5.17	-3.38%
NET YARDS RUSHING	94	148.28	-36.61%
Rushes	27	32.28	-16.35%
Average Per Rush	3.5	4.59	-23.81%
NET YARDS PASSING	283	177.44	59.49%
Yards Per Pass Play	5.9	5.79	1.97%
Times Sacked	2	2.78	-28.00%
Had Intercepted	1	0.94	5.88%
Fumbles Lost	0	0.83	-100.00%

SF did an admirable job containing Adrian Peterson in this game. They held Minnesota to over 36% below their rushing averages. The only problem is that they allowed the Vikings to pass for nearly 60% above what they had been averaging through the air.

49ers' Offensive Boxscore vs. Vikings' Defensive Averages

The fourth table compares the 49ers' offensive output with the Vikings' average defensive numbers. So, this gives an indication as to how the 49ers' offense performed against the Vikings' defense.

Team Statistics	49ers' Off vs. Vikings' Def
	SF	MIN AvgDef	% Difference
First Downs	13	16.06	-19.03%
Passing	8	10	-20.00%
Rushing	3	4.72	-36.47%
TOTAL NET YARDS	246	289.56	-15.04%
Total Plays	52	59.56	-12.69%
Average Gain Per Play	4.7	4.86	-3.33%
NET YARDS RUSHING	58	80.44	-27.90%
Rushes	26	23.61	10.12%
Average Per Rush	2.2	3.41	-35.43%
NET YARDS PASSING	188	209.11	-10.10%
Yards Per Pass Play	7.2	5.82	23.76%
Times Sacked	1	2.89	-65.38%
Had Intercepted	1	0.83	20.00%
Fumbles Lost	0	0.83	-100.00%

This table shows that the 49ers' offense underperformed compared to the Vikings' defensive statistics. Just as when compared against their own numbers, the 49ers were below the Vikings' defensive averages, except in sacks and fumbles. So, while they didn't light it up, they did give themselves the opportunity to win.

Overall, this was yet another tight game on the scoreboard, but the Vikings had a sizable edge in yards gained. Of course, about 2/3 of that difference came on the Vikings' final drive. I re-checked the Box Score, and the Vikings actually outperformed the 49ers in PRs and KRs. Both teams scored non-offensive TDs, with Percy Harvin returning a KO 101 yards for the Vikings, and San Francisco blocking a FG and returning it for a TD. That would most likely account for the Vikings having more yardage, since the 49ers actually scored on a Minnesota drive. This was a tight game pretty much all the way, but in the end, it was the wily veteran who led his team to victory.

Let me know your thoughts.

This FanPost was created by a registered user of The Daily Norseman, and does not necessarily reflect the views of the staff of the site. However, since this is a community, that view is no less important.

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Comments

that pretty cool

Thanks I will have to chew on this a little.

it is better to be thought of as dumb then to open your mouth and remove all doubt.
Ben Franklin

by montana vikes fan on Sep 28, 2009 7:27 PM CDT reply actions

Interesting

In the Army I used to brief a General that loved to see things laid out simply yet told the story (he also liked graphics and lots of things flying into the PP presentations, which is how I earned a Powerpoint Ranger Tab – another story….(KIDDING))….

Back to the post…This is one simple yet effective tool to look at the overall performance of our team, against SF and it kind of says what we knew, yet justifies why we know it….Do think we should run these numbers for GB against us up to now….

I suspect that if we do, it will point out what we already think we know, and it may be useful for us to “see it” in a different format….I am sure the team is doing the same…after a little rest today!

SKOL!

I would rather be IN the Arena than watching from the stands...That is my life!
* Read Teddy Roosevelt's "Man in the Arena" if you need further explanation...

by vikingfanfrom afar on Sep 28, 2009 9:27 PM CDT reply actions

Preview post?

I have a couple of game preview posts on my site, and I thought about doing this game coming up. It would be a comparison of per game statistics for GB and Minnesota and then look at respective offensive and defensive ranks and average opponents’ rankings to this point in the season. As long as Gonzo’s cool with it, and you are interested, I could put one together and post it here by the end of the week (maybe Thursday).

For ideas on statistical analyses, email me at wolfpacksteelersfan@gmail.com.

by WolfpackSteelersFan on Sep 29, 2009 9:07 AM CDT up reply actions

+10

Yes that would be interesting!

I would rather be IN the Arena than watching from the stands...That is my life!
* Read Teddy Roosevelt's "Man in the Arena" if you need further explanation...

by vikingfanfrom afar on Sep 29, 2009 10:37 AM CDT up reply actions

Thank you!

It sounds interesting and would certainly show where the teams have been focusing in the past :) .

I can’t help but think that the Vikings are ‘laying low’ in terms of the playbook, holding back for the more difficult games later in the season, and from the performance I watched this past Sunday, the O is still pretty shakey in terms of their coordination and execution. Each week is better than the one before it, though.

Ah, ah,
We come from the land of the ice and snow,
From the midnight sun where the hot springs blow.
The hammer of the gods will drive our ships to new lands,
To fight the horde, singing and crying: Valhalla, I am coming!
SKOL!

by DCPurple on Oct 1, 2009 11:06 AM CDT up reply actions