Not Dealing in Absolutes
by Ted Glover on Jan 19, 2010 11:56 PM CST
Email
Print
Uh, hello? Is this thing on? Before I delve into my first story, I want to say thanks to Gonzo, Anthony, and Eric for letting me become a contributing writer. I wanted to get my first story up fast, for a couple of reasons. One, it's a great time to be a Vikings fan, and I'm thrilled to be part of the best Vikings community on the Internet. Two, and most importantly, the bender that Anthony, Gonzo, and Eric are on will wear off eventually, and they'll wake up with one bad ass hangover, a tiger in the bathroom, and then they'll realize they've given the DN version of Alan the keys to the website. So, let's get on with it, before they come to their senses, shall we?
One thing I've noticed about this post-season, other than the fact that most of these games have been non-competitive, is how absolutely certain the 'experts' have been about the outcomes of the games. Dallas has momentum, so they're going to the Super Bowl. What? 34-3? Really? To the Vikings? New Orleans has lost three straight, so they are SO done, because the St Louis Arizona Cardinals are en fuego, baby! 45-14? Yeah, I told you the Cards would roll. New Orleans won? Shut UP! Seriously?
And the thing is, we tend to believe these absolutes, unless it's our team that's getting absolutely blasted. The great thing about football is that once you get to the post season, absolutes mean absolutely bupkis. Let's look at some absolutely certain, undeniable facts as the 2009 playoffs got under way:
1. the Dallas Cowboys were the Greatest Team in the History of The World and WIll Reign Forever in The House of Jerry. Amen.
2. New Orleans and Indianapolis would make quick exits from the playoffs because they took their foot off the pedal. Uh, yeah. Baltimore and Arizona were hit and run victims this past weekend.
3. The Cincinnati Bengals are a team of frauds. Oh wait, that one was actually true.
When you get to Championship Weekend, two things matter: Talent, mismatches, and homefield. Wait, that's three. Okay, THREE things matter. And turnovers. FOUR, four things matter.
Talent: Generally, the team with the better talent wins the game. If you're a 9-7 #6 seed, you have a better chance of going to the Super Bowl than a Republican does of being elected senator in Massachussetts. Huh? Shut the hell up. In Massachussetts? A Republican?!?! Anyways, how do you measure talent? If it's Pro Bowl players, then you would give the edge to the Vikings. If you measure team statistics, it's pretty much a push. If you measure how the talent matches up, I think you give the edge to the Vikings. I think the Vikes offense is better than the Saints defense. I also think the Vikes defensive line is better than the Saints offensive line, and therefore they can disrupt the Saints passing game and tempo.
Mismatches: The biggest mismatch on the field this past Sunday was Minnesota's defensive line against Dallas' offensive line. They were on Tony Romo like a fat man at a buffet from almost the first play, and didn't let up until they had to loosen their belt buckle for fear of intestinal stomach rupture. I think Dallas' offensive line is better than what New Orleans has to offer, especially at tackle. I think this is the biggest mismatch on the field, and one the VIkings must exploit if they are to win. If they don't, New Orleans will be able to take advantage of the second biggest mismatch on the field: Drew Brees against the Vikings secondary. It's not that the Vikings are void of talent, but if you let a guy like Brees get comfortable in the pocket and go through his progressions, he will shred the Vikings.
Homefield: Since the 1998 NFC Championship game, the home team is 7-4. That means it's nice to play at home, but it's not a deal breaker for going to the Super Bowl. A warm weather Tampa team went to Philadelphia and handled a very good Eagles team, and in 1998 a heavily favored 15-1 team with homefield advantage...never mind. Still too soon for me.
Turnovers: If you lose the turnover battle, you're more than likely going to lose the game. You can't cough it up and expect to win, especially on the road.
So can the Vikings win Sunday? In a word, absolutely.
87 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Nice firs "official" post MilCardFan
And let me be first to say Congrats!
The only thing I would out and out contest is the idea that people were picking the Cardinals to beat the Saints. I guess I didn’t see that. But maybe I wasn’t paying attention closely enough.
Regarding the mismatch of their O line to our D line — that may be true, but I think Brees is better than Romo too, in particular at getting rid of ball quickly. So that may more than counterbalance however better the Dallas O line is than the Saints’ (which I don’t have a firm opinion on myself).
This one is well done though
I just think that as Vikings fans we’re looking a little too hard for disrespect.
I agree
Watching sportscenterand Mike & Mike this morning I actually heard a lot of credit given to the Vikings.
Like pulling teeth
On Monday thin Mike was so angry about the Vikings running up the score, that I had a hard time thinking that he had not been cheering for the Cowboys for the whole game, until it became apparent they were out of if. Thus I will further speculate that if the Vikings beat the Saints, he will have lost a whole lot of money at the local sports book. Frosting on the cake.
Not as hard as Saints fans
They seem to be resorting to fantasy to find it. Lost of them at CSC seem to believe everyone was picking Cardinals over them> And now supposedly everyone is picking us over them. Funny, I didn’t hear that on either the Fox Sunday postgame, or the NFL Network later than night & the next day. I think the aggregate result of all that was about 50-50.
I guess whatever trips your trigger …
You have to understand Saints fans
Deep down, we’re just waiting for everything to implode. We see disrespect lurking in every alleyway, behind cars, under the bed. We pull back the shower curtain every time we enter a bathroom, in case disrespect might be hiding there. It’s going to take at least a couple Lombardis before the automatic reaction of NFL fans toward the Saints isn’t instant dismissal. Or so we think.
BURN THE BLACK PANTS!!!
LOL
You were talking about Saints fans here, not Vikings fans, right? Like I posted over at CSC, things really aren’t that different at either end of the Mississippi. Even the jokes.
The main exceptions are probably temperature & skin tone :)
We are going to beat you of course :) — but if we had to lose, can’t think of another NFC team/fanbase more deserving and overdue than us for getting their shot at the Lombardi.
Can’t wait til Sunday! Even having to listen to Joe Buck won’t ruin it!
End of pain.
Don’t worry. Your anxieties will be over after Sunday.
That may be true, but...
As Bill Simmons always loves to point out, the “Nobody Believed In Us!” factor seems to play a HUGE role in the NFL these days. It helped bring the Cards to the Super Bowl last year. (Well that and Larry Fitzgerald going bonkers for a solid month.)
by Eric J. Thompson on Jan 20, 2010 9:51 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah
You see this shown all the time in their Daily Norseman. If you go in there to try to talk football, they will just look you up see the Packer part and all they can do is talk about the Packers not being in the playoffs. Its pretty funny actually. The best part is they think they are somehow better than the people in WI meanwhile the rest of the world is laughing at them! I actually live in MN, its a nice place but some of the people are real idiots. Don’t worry though, when they fall back to mediocrity, their fan base will dwindle back down again like it always does and then you won’t have to listen to them as much.
by TrevorR
some of the people are real idiots
hmmmmmmm…
I BELIEVE...
by ArizonaVikingsFan on Jan 20, 2010 4:06 PM CST up reply actions
Buckeye Alert, Buckeye Alert
Good first thread, and remember the Cowboys will win the SB
as sure as dogs can fly!…..LOL
A bird in the hand is worth about 10.99 at KFC and makes me lick my chops
Yummy!!!!!
Aw crap!
"Is it normal to wake up in the morning in a sweat because you can't wait to beat another human's guts out?" -Joe Kapp
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Jan 20, 2010 1:47 AM CST up reply actions
...and the wolfpack grew by one...
nothing is absolute until the clock goes to 00:00
looking forward to more of your posts!
I BELIEVE...
by ArizonaVikingsFan on Jan 20, 2010 12:47 AM CST reply actions
If the team with the bye doesn't go in with a winning streak...
Than the team that won a few straight to go along with the wild card victory thinks they can’t lose. More often then not they get plowed!
Who dat? Nobody will remember or care after this week. Go Vikes!
Let's see....
What happens Sunday…I know that it will be another long night over here, but worth every lost minute of sleep and the bear of a day following! Is all part of the fandom world we all have to deal with so no biggee!
Good post Mil…looking forward as all are to this game…All things being close between these two teams, I think it will come down to heart each has and the desire to win….translated into their play in all areas you focus on above…
Let’s see…but I have a feeling it will NOT be a blowout for one or the other team…both have to much heart to give up a W easily, and this is not AZ we are playing in the regular season…this is for the whole banana!
SKOL!
I would rather be IN the Arena than watching from the stands...That is my life!
* Read Teddy Roosevelt's "Man in the Arena" if you need further explanation...
by vikingfanfrom afar on Jan 20, 2010 3:29 AM CST reply actions
Line play
If the defensive line attacks at the snap of the ball and consistently drives the Saints offensive line back, Brees will not have time to set up the long ball. It is the 3 step drops and quick releases that have been effective against the Vikes this season and the only to defeat them is to have Kevin, and Pat a half step in front of Drew as he pulls from center. The final key will be not to let up and go for the throat. There is no whining in football.
Is it Sunday yet?
It may take a village to raise a child, but it takes a Viking to raze a village.
Great first post
It’s funny — the best NFL analyst of all time, Mr. Trent Dilfer, says that the NO Offensive Line is going to be the deal maker in favor of NO. I’m telling you, that guy is such a insert word of choice here. I’m so glad he picked NO to win — as our chance of winning this game have now gone up tremendously. Thanks Trent!
Are you just trying to pick a fight?
I notice you are a Packers fan, so you must be.
I believe Chris Berman picking the Packers cost us that game since hes the biggest jinx I have ever seen, hes 1-7 in the playoffs I believe. So yes an analyst does affect the game if he picks against or even FOR my team.
With that said, I hope he picks the Saints, so Brett can get a shot at trophy #2
Favre 4 Ever
I Believe In Chris Drury
RIP Buddy <3 Love you
A real moral booster
Aren’t you delighted that the eminent all wise swami Trent Dilfer picked you to win? Not only does he have years of football experience behind him, he also has the law of averages in his favor, having picked the Cowboys to demolish the Vikings.
Nice post sir
You’re funny! loved the quip about the senator. Good work, look forward to reading more.
Vikes just need to execute their game
Offensively the Vikings need to do what they have been doing. Use AP to suck guys up to the line and then throw over it like we’ve done all season. This is one of the lesser run D’s we’ve seen in a while and they are somewhat hobbled up front. AP can quiet the crowd and shorten the game.
Defensively we need to stop the run and long pass play. Make the Saints one dimensional with 3 step drops and then squeeze down on those routes. This is kind of what we did to Dallas. They had success with the 3 steps but that only gets you so far. I don’t think we can blitz very often in this game. We need to rely on the front 4 to get it done.
I feel like both teams will be able to move the ball fairly evenly. Often the deciding factor when evenly matched teams play is turnovers and big plays. Defensively we need to force the Saints to take risks in order to move the ball and not give them everything on one play. We did a great job against the Cowboys with this.
One play in the Cowboys game defined our defense for me. It was actually an 8 yard gain on first down in the 3rd quarter. Romo dropped back to pass, had to elude two linemen with early pressure, charge the line of scrimmage, then flip it across his body for an 8 yard game. We need to make Brees really work for his honey, that’s all I’m saying.
One more point
The Saints are a great running team. That is often how they quiet the pass rush. They’ll run on 3rd and 4 and get it most of the time. We need to somehow stop the run and rush the passer with 4 and 5 man pass rushes. This means our tackles and linebackers have to play out of their minds while our ends can hopefully just focus on edge rush and keeping contain.
Congrats MilCardFan!
Now that you’ve hit the big-time, don’t forget that we knew ya back when (and when the paparazzi come a’calling, are likely to regale them with fascinating stories about you, a drunken Doberman, and a slippery banana :) ).
I agree with your analysis on the keys for this game, AND whatever-possible-game-might-come-next. All the teams in the final four are high-powered and dangerous on both sides of the ball, but this is the NFL and in the NFL, ‘defense wins championships’. Fortunately, the Vikings are particularly well-endowed in that department, heh.
Ah, ah,
We come from the land of the ice and snow,
From the midnight sun where the hot springs blow.
The hammer of the gods will drive our ships to new lands,
To fight the horde, singing and crying: Valhalla, I am coming!
SKOL!
MilCardFan
Great first post and congrats! My thoughts on this game are basically the same from last week. The team who commits the fewest mistakes (i.e. turnovers and dumb penalties) combined with basic fundamental football wins! The wild card is our Special Teams (kicking and receiving). If they can repeat last week’s performance, we’re heading to Miami.
"Skol Vikings! Let's win this game Skol Vikings!
Great first post
Gonzo will come to his senses too late, to save the site. LOL. I have always looked for your posts so you will be easier to find now GREAT. that is you and R4F.
by just another viking on Jan 20, 2010 8:40 AM CST reply actions
"That's why they play the game"
Talk about absolutes…this one is absolutely true. If you want to assign a winner based on stats and opinions, we could go on until Minnesota sends a comedian to the Senate…and even then, somehow the Cowboys will manage to sneak back in. No, the game must be played.
And funny things happen when games get played. Like this: Minnesota vs. Arizona. The Vikings lead the league in sacks, and Kurt Warner is notoriously immobile. Talk about a mismatch. But in the game, it’s the Cardinals who sack Brett Favre three times. The Vikings get zero sacks. Jared Allen gets zero tackles.
Or this: the New Orleans Saints are 13-1, playing at home, and can clinch the #1 seed with a victory over the lowly 2-12 Buccaneers. This is a mismatch for the Mismatch Hall of Fame. But the Saints, up 17-0 in the second quarter, take their foot off the throttle, allow the Bucs to come back and tie it, blow a makeable field goal at the end of regulation, and lose in overtime.
None of the “experts”—either professional or amateur—saw any of this coming. So I don’t think they can be trusted with the NFC Championship, either. No, we’re just doomed to actually play Sunday and settle all this on the field.
And personally, I think the biggest mismatch this weekend is going to be Joe Buck vs. fans of football. Speaking as a fan, I expect to lose this matchup, big-time. I’m absolutely sure of it.
BURN THE BLACK PANTS!!!
by MtnExile on Jan 20, 2010 8:55 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
Great Points!
The “predictionists” to me are almost like stock market timers. Despite all the statistics and opinions, the outcome of a game is somewhat unpredictable or random like Wall Street. It almost makes you want to take the contrarian approach. I too would have never expected a 2-12 team to go into N.O. and win that game, nor would I have predicted the Bears/Panthers to play as well as they did against us. It will only be determined on the field. Until then it’s all hope and prayers.
"Skol Vikings! Let's win this game Skol Vikings!
Any given Sunday
almost. Stay tuned.
We all know that art is not the truth, art is a lie that makes us realize the truth.--Picasso
that last point....
so, so true. nobody wins.
I piss people off on a fairly regular basis. I cherish my right to speak my mind, whether I sound like an uneducated savage or not. I've never been accused of keeping what I think a secret, nor will I ever. Don't like it? I don't care.
by IABerserker1 on Jan 20, 2010 10:39 AM CST up reply actions
Solid first post.
Anthony, Eric and you are “the three best friends that anyone can have, the three best friends that anyone can have, your the three best friends that anyone can have and you’ll………..”
We are the vikings.......resistance is futile.
link to Darren sharper saying he would like to run through Peterson's chest
by koooolaid1087 on Jan 20, 2010 10:20 AM CST via mobile reply actions
That's funny
I remember after Peterson ran for 296 Sharper was interviewed after the game and said 250 of those yards came in the second half and he thought we’d see him run for 500 some day. I pray that day is Jan 24th 2010.
A good coach makes his team better, he doesn’t wait for a better team to make him look good.
I hope they do meet
Sharp should worry about keeping his capped teeth attached. I could see him getting a good lick in if three guys are holding him up and he can come in and whack him though.
Salty....
Can you mention Shaper and not mention his capped teeth? Everytime you posted a Sharper put down on CSC, you had to throw in the “capped teeth” thing. What’s that all about? You got bad teeth or something?
The biggest problem for Sharper getting a good lick on AP will be getting to him before he fumbles.
Just checking
Good luck this Sunday. May the best team win and may everyone keep their teeth attached…. capped on not.
WHO DAT....
WE DAT BEETCH!!! Is it sunday yet???
"A government big enough to give you everything you want, is strong enough to take everything you have"
Thomas Jefferson
by RileysCannibalJct on Jan 20, 2010 10:48 AM CST reply actions
Is that icon a t-shirt?
If so, where can I buy it?
by Jepp The Viking on Jan 20, 2010 12:31 PM CST up reply actions
cant find it anywhere
Just got the pic from PJDiaries on Twitter. Would LOVE a shirt too.
"A government big enough to give you everything you want, is strong enough to take everything you have"
Thomas Jefferson
by RileysCannibalJct on Jan 20, 2010 12:53 PM CST up reply actions
Perfect!
But I’ll wait until Sunday night before I order anything like that. Maybe if I was going to the game I’d buy it now, but I’d hate to jinx it and have a shirt with a shelf life of only 3 days :)
by Eric J. Thompson on Jan 20, 2010 9:53 PM CST up reply actions
Hey thanks
I NEED one….but we must win first.
"A government big enough to give you everything you want, is strong enough to take everything you have"
Thomas Jefferson
by RileysCannibalJct on Jan 21, 2010 12:03 AM CST up reply actions
Great Post
Loved it. Good job. Liked the Monty Python bit.
Ya Sure You Bettcha
by The Bears are Ditkaless on Jan 20, 2010 10:54 AM CST reply actions
Who Dat?
’Dat" would have to be your 3rd grade teacher, as he/she obviously did you a disservice in grammar lessons. Haha.
For some strange reason I have the exact same feeling I did last week at this time regarding a Vikings blowout win. I’m calling it. We win by 3 scores.
by Jepp The Viking on Jan 20, 2010 12:01 PM CST reply actions
I think that “Who Dat” above is one of yours, actually. Of course, maybe he went to LSU and just got confused about the colors.
BURN THE BLACK PANTS!!!
Any school
that spit Jamarcus Russel upon NFL fans gets minus points in my book. Seriously.
by Jepp The Viking on Jan 20, 2010 12:29 PM CST up reply actions
Why blame LSU?
LSU didn’t force Oakland to draft Russell. I never liked him even when he played for the Tigers, but apparently a lot of people were fooled. Bad on them.
BURN THE BLACK PANTS!!!
Just like....
The Canadian Government has aplogized for Brian Adams on numerous occasions, LSU has apologized for JaMarcus Russel several times.
Haha
“You know it’s truuuue, everything I doooo, I dooo it for youuuuu!”
by Eric J. Thompson on Jan 20, 2010 9:54 PM CST up reply actions
he raped a terrible Notre Dame secondary in the Sugar Bowl and all of a sudden he became the greatest QB Prospect. & he can throw 60 yards from his knees!!! Cus thats so crucial to Tom Brady, Manning, and Favres success!! Of course!! But now he is revealed as a fraud and a bust and spends his time still on his knees but doing something else.
Favre 4 Ever
I Believe In Chris Drury
RIP Buddy <3 Love you
Vikings Will Win, It's not the Saints time yet...
I’m sorry, but I’m a firm believer that there’s one thing that wins football games, and there’s one thing that wins championships, and the Vikings have the edge on both.
Games are won and lost at the LINE OF SCRIMMAGE: Vikings are clearly better at both. Saints fans may be hungover from all the Dallas talk about how bad the Vikings O-Line is, but it man-handled Dallas in a key game, stouts two pro-bowlers, and our Tackles are both over 6’8" 330 lbs. On the Defensive side there’s no contest as to who is better. Vikings are top 5 in stopping the run and #1 in sacking the QB. Period.
Defenses win championships: The Vikings are a top 5 defense, hands down. The Saints aren’t even in the top 2/3rds of defense. Most teams that go on to the SB or ever win it, are known for having STOUT defenses. In the ’03 matchup with Tampa vs Oakland, Best D vs Best O, Tampa won by a LANDSLIDE.
Vikings will win this game. If they play like they did vs. Dallas last Sunday, this game won’t even be close. It doesn’t matter that it’s on the road, it’s in a dome with no grass and no cold weather. The Vikes can only lose by shooting themselves in the foot by lack of preparation or focus, which doesn’t seem probable at this point.
I like your confidence
but the last paragraph sounds too much like Gerald Senewah… Respect your opponent (not saying you don’t) and you’ll prepare better and perform better. SKOL.
Was that before or after Sunday's game?
Because it sounded like he was too busy making excuses for Dallas during the game to pick Minnesota to win anything.
by Eric J. Thompson on Jan 20, 2010 9:55 PM CST up reply actions
common taters
please don’t tell me fakeman and buck are gonna do the game. i’ve never seen someone as biased as fakeman. when farve threw that first td niether of them could talk . anyway vikes fans good luck sunday. i want our saints to win but as long as the cowpies and falcants aren’ t in it , i’m alright!
Some fans are easly satisfied.
I think most fans would only be happy with a SB and not worry about other teams that aren’t in the playoffs any longer.
ditto
i will be most happy with our SB victory. i just hope we don’t have to lose 1 (or 4) before we get there and get the job done!
Ahhhhh
you might have waited a little too long….it WAS a good time to be a Vikes fan, you guys had a great season and are historically a great franchise…it’s just the New Orleans Saints turn this year…and next….and maybe a 3peat!
Gris Gris Man, Voodoo Surgeon General and Master of Witch Doctory
Wow.
So an article cautioning against absolutes doesn’t acknowledge that not all of the media was in love with the Cowboys? That not all of the media thought the Saints and Colts were doomed due to lack of momentum? This a great site, but it gets a little stunning sometimes to see how much time many Viking fans spend mythologizing their perception of the lack of respect their team gets in the press. I just don’t see it, personally…
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jan 22, 2010 6:05 AM CST reply actions
Not mythologizing perceptions here
This wasn’t about a perceived slight against the Vikings, just the overall state of sports on television, and the absolutes that they deal in all the time, it seems.
ESPN, Fox, CBS, and even the NFL Network pays guys to take positions that aren’t really accurate, but they are absolute, regardless of the team they’re talking about. It’s no longer analysis, it’s opinion, based on small sample sizes over the last month, without taking stock of an entire season.
Yeah, there was a conventional wisdom about the Vikes going in to the Dallas game, but there was the same about Green Bay, the Jets, and every other team as well. And fans of all teams knew the absolutes that the talking heads were spouting were not the complete picture of the team in question, but they were presented that way, and that’s what bugs me.
I guess you could see this as a pushback against perceived slights against the Vikings in particular, but it was definitely not my intent.
"We're used to Favre-a-palooza now. We're engulfed in Favre-a-palooza. It's not even Favre-a-palooza anymore. He's family now."
--Vikings TE Visanthe Shiancoe, on Brett Favre
"ESPN, Fox, CBS and even the NFL Network pays guys to take positions that aren't really accurate, but they are absolute, regardless of the team they'r talking about."
That I can agree with.
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jan 22, 2010 6:22 PM CST up reply actions
Ouch with the Senator bit.. =S
I blame the Pats for being one-and-done and making every up there all ornery.
But thank goodness I have the Vikes to get me through this week!! And Sen. Franken—whatever you think of his policy stylings, ya gotta hope that the purple make him (and I guess T-Paw too) happy this month!
P.S.: Welcome to the big leagues, MilCardFan!
Saint's O-Line
I don’t see how Dallas’ o-line is so much better than the Saints. Didn’t we have three Pro-Bowlers with our best lineman missing the season injured? Brees never seems to get sacked all that much, and the Saints did win as many road games as home games. Also, it’s nice you have a running back, but we have four. Ditto the receivers. Carry on, though, it is your site.
"Emancipate yourself from mental slavery, none but ourselves can free our minds" -Bob Marley
by PanheadCatahoula on Jan 22, 2010 8:14 PM CST reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Shutdown Corner - NFL - Yahoo! Sports
- Report: Tebow sends cease and desist letter to maker of Jesus-y Jets T-shirts
- Joe McKnight says too much McDonald’s helped him gain 16 pounds in offseason
- Nick Mangold says goodbye to some chest hair on ‘Late Night with Jimmy Fallon’
- Saints will honor suspended Sean Payton with empty chairs
- Junior Seau’s home burglarized just days after his death
