Vikings Bringing No Noise, But Bringing Plenty Of Funk
The genesis of this is something I saw from the folks at Vikings Now on Twitter this afternoon that I felt I needed to investigate for myself, because I couldn't believe it when I saw the numbers.
If it seems as though the Vikings have been playing from behind a lot this season. . .well, it's because they have been. A lot of that has to do with how atrocious they've been on the first two drives of each game this season. By and large, such things have led to the Vikings getting down early, which minimizes the pass rush on the defensive side and necessitates many more throws than necessary on the offensive side.
To wit, thanks to the Game Books provided by the folks at NFL.com, this is how the Vikings have fared on the first two drives of each of their six games this season. I'm putting this stuff after the jump to give you an opportunity to hold your nose before you dive in, should you so desire.
Here we go.
|
Opponent |
Plays |
Yards Gained |
Penalty Yards |
Net Yards |
First Downs |
T.O.P. |
Drive End |
|
New Orleans |
3 |
7 |
0 |
7 |
0 |
2:03 |
Punt |
|
New Orleans |
6 |
38 |
-20 |
18 |
1 |
3:49 |
Punt |
|
Miami |
10 |
50 |
-5 |
45 |
2 |
5:33 |
Downs |
|
Miami |
4 |
9 |
0 |
9 |
1 |
2:41 |
Punt |
|
Detroit |
4 |
17 |
0 |
17 |
1 |
1:50 |
Punt |
|
Detroit |
6 |
23 |
-12 |
11 |
1 |
4:37 |
Punt |
|
New York |
3 |
20 |
-15 |
5 |
0 |
3:11 |
Punt |
|
New York |
3 |
-1 |
0 |
-1 |
0 |
1:48 |
Punt |
|
Dallas |
7 |
19 |
0 |
19 |
2 |
3:21 |
Fumble |
|
Dallas |
3 |
-4 |
0 |
-4 |
0 |
2:10 |
Punt |
|
Green Bay |
3 |
4 |
0 |
4 |
0 |
2:04 |
Punt |
|
Green Bay |
3 |
5 |
0 |
5 |
0 |
0:59 |
Punt |
|
Totals |
55 |
187 |
-52 |
135 |
8 |
34:06 |
|
|
Averages |
4.6 plays/drive |
|
|
11.3 yards/drive |
|
2:50/drive |
|
Conversely, here's how Minnesota's opponents have fared on their first two drives of each of the first six games.
|
Opponent |
Plays |
Yards Gained |
Penalty Yards |
Net Yards |
First Downs |
T.O.P. |
Drive End |
|
New Orleans |
5 |
77 |
0 |
77 |
3 |
2:04 |
Touchdown |
|
New Orleans |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1:37 |
Punt |
|
Miami |
9 |
73 |
0 |
73 |
4 |
4:47 |
Touchdown |
|
Miami |
7 |
20 |
5 |
25 |
2 |
4:28 |
Punt |
|
Detroit |
3 |
3 |
0 |
3 |
0 |
1:26 |
Punt |
|
Detroit |
3 |
7 |
0 |
7 |
0 |
1:18 |
Punt |
|
New York |
4 |
35 |
0 |
35 |
1 |
1:34 |
Punt |
|
New York |
7 |
33 |
0 |
33 |
2 |
3:32 |
Field Goal |
|
Dallas |
6 |
15 |
0 |
15 |
1 |
2:34 |
Punt |
|
Dallas |
8 |
48 |
0 |
48 |
3 |
4:03 |
Touchdown |
|
Green Bay |
7 |
54 |
-5 |
49 |
3 |
4:22 |
Interception |
|
Green Bay |
4 |
76 |
0 |
76 |
3 |
2:28 |
Touchdown |
|
Totals |
66 |
441 |
0 |
441 |
22 |
34:13 |
|
|
Averages |
5.5 plays/drive |
|
|
36.75 yards/drive |
|
2:51/drive |
|
The time of possession statistics are about the same. Everything else? HUGE advantage to Vikings' opponents.
If you look at the first two drives of each game, the Vikings have punted 10 times, given the ball up on downs once (against Miami, when Brad Childress inexplicably went for it on 4th and 2 in the first quarter when the Vikings were well within Ryan Longwell's field goal range), and turned it over on a fumble once (the botched handoff between Brett Favre and Adrian Peterson on the first drive of the Dallas game). On the other hand, Minnesota's opponents have scored four touchdowns, kicked one field goal, turned the ball over once, and punted only six times, or half of those possessions.
Minnesota has failed to score first in any of their six games so far this season, and that's a recipe for disaster, particularly with a quarterback that isn't playing particularly well. . .and, at this point, that's a very generous assessment of Brett Favre's level of play, which is something I'll get into on either Friday or Saturday. . .since it keeps you from being able to utilize the NFL's best running back to his fullest capability. And make no mistake, Adrian Peterson is playing out of his mind right now, and is on pace to have the best season of his career. He's currently second in the NFL in total yardage behind Oakland's Darren McFadden, and after 157 total touches has still yet to put the ball on the turf.
To put it simply, the Minnesota Vikings can not afford to keep playing from behind. The reason for that is simple. . .for this offense to be successful, it absolutely, positively MUST run through Adrian Peterson. Last year, this team might have been Brett Favre's team. It's not Brett Favre's team any longer. And if Brett Favre is going to continue to play the way he's played thus far in 2010, he's going to get yanked for Tarvaris Jackson, and this isn't going to be Tarvaris Jackson's team, either.
I understand that the prevailing wisdom is for coaches to script the first 10 or 12 or 15 plays of every game, and maybe that's part of the problem. Maybe the lack of imagination that Brad Childress has shown all this time as Vikings coach has made it that much easier for teams to anticipate what he's planning for those scripted plays to start the game and to stomp all over it before the Vikings' offense can get going. He's also known for the relative inflexibility of his offense. . .and that, in all likelihood, is not going to change. So, it's going to fall on the rest of the Vikings' offense to attempt to do what they can with what they're given and make it work.
Of course, that would require them to be disciplined, and that's been a problem early in games as well. As you can see from the tables above, the Vikings haven't gained a heck of a lot of yards on their opening drives to start with. . .and they've had nearly a third of that measley total taken away by penalties. Honestly, when you're having trouble gaining one first down's worth of yardage on an average drive and your opponents are averaging close to 40, that's going to flip the field and put your defense in a disadvantageous place.
I'm going to say what many of us have been saying since this season started. . .this team is too damn talented to be this bad, and they're in a very, very bad place this weekend going on the road to play one of the NFL's better teams. Do the Vikings have a level of talent that's capable of beating the New England Patriots? They certainly do.
The real question is can they put it all together sometime before halftime. They showed signs of it last weekend, and that needs to carry over into this Sunday's match-up as well.
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we all knew they stunk on opening drives...
…but to see it quantified like this makes it that much more disturbing..i think short passes on first down more, maybe even 2nd down, would be a simple solution to break up the predictability somewhat.. as would percy / AD split backfield, or even wildcat (but i’ve pretty much given up hope that chilly will ever go there)..
..or maybe they should NOT script any plays? and let BF audible right out of the gate..
several possibilities exist to shake it up a bit…lets see if chilly chooses any of them..
"the following statement is true:
the preceding statement was false" - george carlin
I agree...
… the number of first + second down runs throughout the game has bugged me. Too predictable, too obvious. We only open it up when we get behind, which is every game.
From my (possibly faulty) memory, I recall that in the opening drive vs. Dallas they threw on first down, and then only lost it on a fumble. But they got two first downs according to the chart above. I remember being encouraged that they didn’t run every single 1st and 2nd down.
In the Jets game, (again possibly faulty memory), they were extremely conservative in the first half, and got behind. Granted, we had turnovers. But only opened it up on 1st and 2nd down in the second half and we scored lots of points.
In the last game at Green Bay, for large chunks of the game we were so conservative with 1st down runs.
I saw a stat in that game which said we were something like 70% running plays in the red zone, leading the NFL.
If they don’t trust Favre to throw on 1st down, they should sit him. It feels like they don’t trust their passing game. They weren’t this conservative last year. You can’t wait to move the ball until after you get behind.
In the NFL, teams just have to be able to pass, including on 1st and 2nd down, to move the ball.
I wish there was a stat here about how often we ran on 1st down. When we are tied or ahead, I bet we are running it on 1st down at least 80% of plays.
by HammeroftheGods on Oct 29, 2010 8:55 AM CDT up reply actions
I say we should hire bo bo the dancing clown
For our offensive coordinator. And his monkey bu bu as the head coach. Oh wait we did.
It's a lot easier to love the Vikings when they win...
Bean-Counting FTW
Thanks for quantifying our pain in such detail. As many other analyses seem to do, again it seems to suggest that Chilly is serving as a weak link in our offense. I admit a bit of guilty excitement at yesterday’s suggestion that Leslie Frazier would conquer the throne. If I’m faced with 1) losing Frazier next year, or, 2) dumping Chilly for Frazier as the boss… I’ll take door number two.
---
Uff-da!
I think I would have been better off not to read this article
Living in a world where one of the most talented teams in the NFL cant seem to score on its first two attempts is hell. How do I go back to last year? I like that world better!!!
"If you've got them by the balls their hearts and minds will follow."
John Wayne
by just another viking on Oct 29, 2010 8:34 AM CDT reply actions
Chilly should man up
and admit he has no clue how to call a game. Then he should either let Favre call the game at the line (he certainly has the experience to do so) or hire an OC who has the smarts to use all our offensive weapons. Can you imagine what a coordinator like Martz would do with this offense (other than not use AP enough, cause thats not what he does..run) Anyway, I’d hate to lose Frazier the way we lost Dungy, Billick, and Tomlin..we keep the garbage and let the talent go!!??
If Favre called the game...
would he call his own interceptions?
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
NO TO MARTZ!
No!!!! Think about it- Martz’s offense has caused Cutler to get beaten brutally into the turf time and time again. Our O-line and our hobbled QB couldn’t exist in his system. And they have our own beloved Chester Taylor (well, not our own anymore, but still…), and what have they really done with that talent?
If Martz was our OC, AP would have 5 touches a game, Favre would have been out by Week 3 at best, and we’d probably be 0-6.
I'm no Chilly fan but...
Maybe the lack of imagination that Brad Childress has shown all this time as Vikings coach has made it that much easier for teams to anticipate what he’s planning for those scripted plays to start the game and to stomp all over it before the Vikings’ offense can get going
Um, did you see that WR reverse pass they tried calling with Moss on the first play of the game? I’d call that pretty unpredictable. It didn’t work, but somebody deserves credit for being very creative and bold.
It didn’t work, but somebody deserves credit for being very creative and bold.
i heted that play call. it was completely stupif, imo. that kind of trick gadget play at that moment does not show creativity imo. it shows desperation….on the first play of the game, no less
in the future there will be no war...there will only be rollerball.
The rules
It’s not up to our WR, even an intelligent and experienced vet like Moss, to know the rules like that. It’s up to the coaches, or arguably perhaps the QB in certain instances, to know those rules and create a play that exists within them. Had they just done it from shotgun, we would have been OK.
As Chilie says… gotta play within the system…
It is the staff
Two weeks to design an illegal play. This whole offensive staff and the HC needs to be gone at the end of the year. This is not the first mess up. 12 men on the field after timeout. AP instructed incorrectly and stepped out of bounds at the one with a kick off a couple years back. The refs gave him the correct lesson on what to do.
How long before Moss blows up at this staff of idiots after having been with a “Hall of fame” coach as he puts it. Randy has gone from Hall of Fame coach to hall of Lame coach.
They didn't design an illegal play.
The play was designed for Moss to throw it to Shiancoe, throw it out of bounds, or run it if he had room. Favre running down field and catching the ball was the result of a busted play and Favre shouldn’t have even ran down field because he was illegal even if he didn’t catch the ball. It’s just like a busted screen play where an O-lineman released down field too soon only Favre was the dumb lineman in this case.
The play call wasn’t illegal or even bad, it was just defended well and/or executed poorly.
by CanadianViking on Oct 29, 2010 9:07 PM CDT up reply actions
I’m with you kind of. Because you guys have Peterson, you don’t need a whole lot of creativity in your game plan. Handing the ball off can only get so creative ya know?
I really don’t think creativity is the problem. If anything, it’s his run-pass ratios. One possession he comes out and runs 3 times to go three and out. Then he realizes ok, I should maybe throw a pass in there. This results in a run, run, pass haha. I just don’t think he does a very good job of mixing the pass and run. It’s usually pretty obvious when you guys are going to run and when you’re going to pass. He’s just really predictable.
The plays he calls however, don’t lack creativity in my opinion. That pick play to Moss was a great one. Even that reverse to Harvin was good, creative call.
by packallday555 on Oct 29, 2010 1:10 PM CDT up reply actions
I think you nailed it packallday.
It’s not that our plays aren’t creative, it’s that we don’t mix the run and pass well together. It’s either run, run, pass, or it’s pass, pass, pass. The poor execution of simple plays has been a problem this year as we’ve been really been bad in the third and 3-8 yard range. Those third down situations were one of our strengths last year with either Chester or Percy keeping drives alive almost every time.
by CanadianViking on Oct 29, 2010 9:14 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah, execution is a problem for sure too. That’s kind of one you could say for any problem though too.
by packallday555 on Oct 29, 2010 11:07 PM CDT up reply actions
True.
I guess my problem is that we’re struggling at executing routine plays. 5 yard check-downs have become plays that we don’t even connect on with any regularity.
by CanadianViking on Oct 29, 2010 11:16 PM CDT up reply actions
Good point. You’re exactly right. Last season, Favre obviously connected on quite a few big plays but it always seemed like at the very least he was hooking up with somebody for at least a 3-4 yard gain. That hasn’t really been there this season. His passing % supports this quite a bit. Maybe Shiancoe being slowed by an injury has effected this? Seemed like Shiancoe was always his safety valve last season. Taylor being gone probably hurts this too but only to a degree since he was mostly only out their on 3rd downs.
by packallday555 on Oct 30, 2010 11:03 AM CDT up reply actions
Lack of imagination.......
Because Chilly has none.
I’d like to know who drew up the 1st play against the Jets and the Harvin TD run against the Pack. Those were both imaginative and brilliant. Sure the play on the Jets was a penalty, but it was nice to see. We have the talent, but the lack of intelligence of how to use it.
The penalty
Totally overrules any ‘creativity’ or ‘imagination’ that that play might have had. You can’t create plays that lose yards, be it on a sack, hit from behind the line of scrimmage, or a penalty. Any play that does create lost yards is a bad play, and any sense of ‘imagination’ is turned into ‘stupidity’.
I think the execution is what makes the play bad rather than the call itself.
The call wasn’t bad or stupid it just wasn’t executed very well.
by CanadianViking on Oct 29, 2010 9:16 PM CDT up reply actions
You know what the really weird thing is
Am I just imagining this or weren’t we like super good on the first/scripted drives of every game last year? I seem to recall complaining about how we were great a moving the ball in the first and second quarter and then completely shutting down in the second half. Am I right about this?
What gives? We have literally the same talent then as we do now. Shouldn’t we expect similar results? Sometimes the NFL is just too unpredictable as a whole. Maybe that’s a good thing for competition, but it’s extremely frustrating as a fan.
I was thinking that..
As I read this article..
Didn’t we basically always score on the first drive last year? Than probably fall a little flat after that until the late 2nd quarter and beginning of the 3rd quarter.
Than we eventually had enough points up that it was T_Jack time.
No, you're right.
Last year we were great on the scripted opening drives and often scored first in most games. It was usually once we got off-script and got a lead that we became more conservative and predictable.
In the first few years of Childress being here we have usually moved the ball well on our first drives even before Favre got here. For some reason we just seem to make a lot of mistakes early in games this year. Penalties and poor execution on routine plays have been killing us this year.
by CanadianViking on Oct 29, 2010 9:26 AM CDT up reply actions
What youre both getting at is
The players need to execute better. It doesn’t matter who the coach is, if the players don’t execute the plays the way they are drawn up, its moot.
Moss needs to throw that ball away and not to Favre.
Favre and AP need to be able to exchange a damn hand off.
Receivers need to run better routes at full speed every play.
Offensive linemen need to block better.
Running backs need to pick up blitzes better.
Favre needs to stop throwing across his body, stop throwing into double coverage, and stop throwing to the guys wearing the other color.
"We have a right to be proud, for in our veins flows the blood of many brave races who fought as the lion fights for lordship. Here, in the whirlpool of European races, the Ugric tribe bore down from Iceland the fighting spirit which Thor and Odin gave them, which their Berserkers displayed to such fell intent on the seaboards of Europe, ay, and of Asia and Africa too, till the peoples thought that the werewolves themselves had come."
-from Bram Stoker's Dracula
Well put.
Basically we’ve been a really sloppy and inconsistent team on offense this year.
by CanadianViking on Oct 29, 2010 9:57 AM CDT up reply actions
Adrian Peterson.
That’s the reason the last few years we’ve typically been pretty good on the opening drives, because they were very run friendly, and with AP around that’s a good thing. However, with every passing year teams get more and more chances to learn about this beast and plan appropriately. That’s why most guys do their best on first years- look at Moss in his first year with the Vikings and his first year with the Pats. Till you know how to handle a beast like that, he’s going to run all over you.
The upside is that teams who were planning on just stripping the ball from Peterson or forcing a fumble have been getting a nasty surprise this year. But they still seem to have the benefit of a few years now to experience the Peterson factor and appropriately prepare. We can’t keep doing the same thing year-in and year-out and expect to be succesful- now that we have Moss again, I think we need to factor him in more heavily in our opening scripts. THAT’S something teams haven’t had a good chance to prep for. Plus, make them more scared of Moss, and there’s still that hungry beast lurking somewhere in the backfield…
ESPN is saying that Childress is leaning towards starting TJ
Time you enjoy wasting, was not wasted. - John Lennon
He should
A healthy Favre has proven to be a liability. I can’t imagine how horrible an injured Favre can be.
Oh wait, yes I can.
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/teams/nyj/stats?season=2008_2&qualified=
Maybe Favre could run our first three and out like always.
Don’t end the streak. It might change the tilt of the planet, start armageddon or worse!
Time you enjoy wasting, was not wasted. - John Lennon
by JethroBoViking on Oct 29, 2010 9:26 AM CDT up reply actions
The purpose of the game
is to win, not to pad some stats, isn’t it?
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
You are right, but (there's always a butt)
They were just talking about “The Streak” on ESPN and it’s impressive. It spans six presidents starting in 1992. The only other guy that could catch him, in a few years, is Payton Manning. At least the Viking name would be attributed as the team that helped Brett put it farther out of reach.
Maybe that will be the high point of the season. It’s a catch 22.
Time you enjoy wasting, was not wasted. - John Lennon
by JethroBoViking on Oct 29, 2010 1:10 PM CDT up reply actions
Its execution, not play calling
Of course the usually complaints of “run, run, pass” have shown up but take a look at what was actually gained from each play call on a play-by-play basis from the Green Bay game:
1st Drive – Rushes on first and second down gave the Vikings 3rd and 3. This should be an easy conversion on 3rd and short after two run plays. Heck, I would expect them to pick it up if they ran it. However, on 3rd down, its a quick pass to Harvin that is blown up because Greg Lewis misses a block. No first down and it time to punt. This drive doesn’t fail because they ran the ball on the first two downs. It fails because the passing game doesn’t execute on 3rd down.
2nd Drive – The Vikings switch it up and Brett throws on first down. It falls incomplete. On second down a 5 yard rush and on 3rd and 5, the passing game again fails to execute. So after two drives, the play calling has varied while keeping balance (3 rushes, 3 passes), but an inability to execute plays on 3rd down has forced two punts.
3rd Drive – BAM! Four straight runs and the Vikings have gained a first down and are moving the ball. Two short completions keep the ball moving and the defense guessing, which sets up Harvin to motion to the back field and split the D up the middle for a touchdown run.
The first drive they do go “run, run, pass”, but its not the “run, run” part that fails. It sets the offense up for an easy 3rd down conversion, which is stopped because of lack of execution on the field in the passing game. I guess I just find it funny how we as Vikings fans praise Peterson for being the best running back in the game, but lament that the coach staff would use him on first and second down with a team that is built around his abilities. The offensive line doesn’t average about 320 pounds to stop speed rushers, but to pound the ball with the best running back in the league. But if they use him twice to start a drive and set up a 3rd and short, its bad play calling? I am beginning to wonder if it not an issue with the more vocal fans being “starfuckers” when it comes to the Vikings. Fans hate Childress because he wasn’t someone they had heard of before he got the job. They call for Cowher (pipe dream, hes not going to an aging team without a long term QB to finish his career) or Gruden (franchise killer, just look at where Tampa has been after he ran them into the ground after winning with Dungy’s guys) because they are recognizable and have a big time image in the media. But you can’t fire or really hate a guy just for not being a name. So hate him for an innocuous thing such as play calling, even though no team in the NFC had won as many games as the Vikings until this year since he got hired and put his imprint on the offense. I’m not saying he’s prefect, but this is a much,much,much better team since he took over and Childress is a big part of why they are so much better.
If this truly AD's Team
Then he needs lots of touches and that includes opening drives on 1st and 2nd down. If that doesn’t work, then we’re in a 3rd and long, which is “very” predictable to prevent against. We all want creativity and we want the big play down-field to Percy or Randy, but that’s not going to work until we bring the safety and corners in to stop AD. If AD’s not involved early and often, then we’re in for a very long game. We need our O-line and TEs to step up to the task to open the holes for AD and we need to stop making stupid pre-snap false starts, although we did considerably better in that department last game. I like the big plays too and the creativeness we saw glimpses of in Green Bay but I think the key to keeping this “AD’s Team” is to take control of the Offensive Line early and often.
"Skol Vikings! Let's win this game Skol Vikings!
Sweet Purple Jesus that was awful
If this pattern keeps up on Sunday, mark us down for 2-5. Yuck.
Proud contributor to Daily Norseman and SB Nation Minnesota
by Eric J. Thompson on Oct 29, 2010 1:29 PM CDT reply actions
Everybody needs to chilly out
We have been in every game. We get it fine tuned a little and catch a break on the replay booth, we will be on a roll. Give Chilly some credit. He took one for the team…to the tune of 35 big ones. Can Ziggy pay that for him? Pretty retarded that the league admits they are wrong and then fine chilly for saying so. Who looks stupid now?
Ugly from any angle.
Normally, I tend to be stat shy, but those stats are just so horrible there is no avoiding them. The part that really kills me are the penalties. Sloppy play like that just hands opponents an advantage without making them even work for it. While I can appreciate that there is a learning curve for some positions and that they are trying to give Favre a chance to make something happen, if I hear of anymore offensive holding calls on the Vikings offensive line, I may have to scream.
Life being what it is, one dreams of revenge.
- Paul Gauguin
You got the Govs betting on who pays for our new stadium?
by BigSkyViking on Oct 29, 2010 2:06 PM CDT up reply actions
Curious Moss & TJ
Curious how have Moss and TJ been hooking up in practice?
Moss and WEB?
That have more to do with BF starting or staying than anything else.
That's a very good question.
If anybody has seen any practice or has any info on this topic, pleaze2post!
by princelyfrank on Oct 29, 2010 6:08 PM CDT up reply actions

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