AccuScore: The Impact of Adding Randy Moss to Minnesota
by Eric J. Thompson on Oct 6, 2010 11:32 AM CDT
in Minnesota Vikings 2010 Season
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So Randy Moss is a Viking again. Incredible news to be sure, but how will affect the Vikings' postseason chances?
Our friends Zach Rosenfield and Stephen Oh over at AccuScore sent the following information over to me and I thought it was pretty interesting. If you’re unfamiliar with AccuScore’s work, they forecast sporting events of all kinds by running thousands of simulations and plugging in all sorts of numbers. Frankly I was a little surprised that Moss’ projected impact wasn’t a bit more, but hey–they’re the numerical experts here. Rather than get bogged down with the details of all the hard work they put in, just enjoy the nerdy numbers and analysis!
IMPACT OF RANDY MOSS TO MINNESOTA
A few weeks ago AccuScore thought Minnesota should have acquired Vincent Jackson because he improved the Vikings playoff chances by nearly 10 percentage points. The Vikings ultimately could not come up with enough for San Diego to execute trade, but now Minnesota has come up with another way to boost their sagging passing game.
Without Sidney Rice, Brett Favre and the Vikings passing game has struggled mightily and they are now down to being forecasted for a 3rd place finish in the NFC North with a 37.7% chance of making the playoffs but with Moss they improve to second with a 49.5 percent chance of making the playoffs.
Moss should not only help Brett Favre complete more big plays downfield, but all of a sudden a player like Percy Harvin who may not be up to the task of being a #1 WR, can go back to being a slot receiver making big plays against defenses that can’t match-up with a ‘#3 WR’ this dynamic (#2 WR would be Sidney Rice when healthy, or Moss would be #2 and Rice #1). There is also the domino effect on the running game where a stretched out field will open up even betting opportunities for Adrian Peterson.
|
NFC NORTH (No Trade) |
WIN |
LOSS |
% |
DIV% |
PLAYOFF% |
|
10.5 |
5.5 |
65.6% |
68.2% |
85.2% |
|
|
8.6 |
7.4 |
53.8% |
16.0% |
41.4% |
|
|
8.2 |
7.8 |
51.3% |
15.8% |
37.7% |
|
|
3.7 |
12.3 |
23.1% |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NFC NORTH (Moss Traded to MIN) |
WIN |
LOSS |
% |
DIV% |
PLAYOFF% |
|
Green Bay Packers |
10.4 |
5.6 |
65.0% |
62.1% |
83.3% |
|
Minnesota Vikings |
8.8 |
7.2 |
55.0% |
25.6% |
49.5% |
|
Chicago Bears |
8.6 |
7.4 |
53.8% |
12.2% |
33.7% |
|
Detroit Lions |
3.7 |
12.3 |
23.1% |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MINNESOTA VIKINGS |
WIN |
LOSS |
% |
DIV% |
PLAYOFF% |
|
w/o Randy Moss |
8.2 |
7.8 |
51.3% |
15.8% |
37.7% |
|
w/ Randy Moss |
8.8 |
7.2 |
55.0% |
25.6% |
49.5% |
|
Difference |
0.6 |
-0.6 |
3.8% |
9.8% |
11.8% |
The Patriots hold on without Moss
Based on recent developments you could understand why New England would be willing to part
ways with Moss, and perhaps the move is better in the long run, but for this season, AccuScore
sees this move hurting the Patriots. The Patriots’ win over Miami is very misleading. If not for 3
horrifically bad Henne interceptions and 3 gigantic special teams plays the Dolphins sure looked
like the better team offensively and defensively.
The Patriots have young, dynamic play-makers in WR Brandon Tate and TE Aaron Hernandez
who appear capable of handling more looks with Moss gone. However, while Brandon Tate
has 2 return TDs and some great physical skills he has zero career receiving TDs. Randy Moss
is a proven touchdown machine when thrown to, and even when he has no catches he always
is going to draw plenty of attention from the defense which helps the rest of the receivers, like
Welker, Hernandez, and Tate get open.
The Patriots were projected for 2nd in the AFC East with a 40.4% chance of winning the division,
a close second to the Jets. Without Moss this percentage has dropped to 33.2%.
|
AFC EAST (No Trade) |
WIN |
LOSS |
% |
DIV% |
PLAYOFF% |
|
10.4 |
5.6 |
65.0% |
49.6% |
69.0% |
|
|
10.1 |
5.9 |
63.1% |
40.4% |
63.4% |
|
|
8.8 |
7.2 |
55.0% |
10.0% |
24.1% |
|
|
3.5 |
12.5 |
21.9% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
AFC EAST (Moss Traded to MIN) |
WIN |
LOSS |
% |
DIV% |
PLAYOFF% |
|
New York Jets |
10.5 |
5.5 |
65.6% |
55.9% |
71.2% |
|
New England Patriots |
9.8 |
6.2 |
61.3% |
33.2% |
52.9% |
|
Miami Dolphins |
8.7 |
7.3 |
54.4% |
10.9% |
24.2% |
|
Buffalo Bills |
3.5 |
12.5 |
21.9% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS |
WIN |
LOSS |
% |
DIV% |
PLAYOFF% |
|
w/ Randy Moss |
10.1 |
5.9 |
63.1% |
40.4% |
63.4% |
|
w/o Randy Moss |
9.8 |
6.2 |
61.3% |
33.2% |
52.9% |
|
Difference |
-0.3 |
0.3 |
-1.9% |
-7.2% |
-10.5% |
Thanks again to the guys at AccuScore for the in-depth numbers and analysis! So what do you think? Does Moss give us an 11.8% better chance to make the playoffs? More? Less? Let us know in the comments below.
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Comments
I think a post
called “Wall o’ Huggies” is needed.
It should take the whiniest and most scarred posts from the NFC North and highlight them. Even make it anonymous for all I care.
by Jepp The Viking on Oct 6, 2010 11:41 AM CDT reply actions
so far...
it looks like they are taking the same route as the Favre news from last year…
… no big deal. Moss is overrated. Brett is too old. the Vikings suck.
same old, same old.
I BELIEVE...
by ArizonaVikingsFan on Oct 6, 2010 2:23 PM CDT up reply actions
Bigger difference
I think Moss will make an even BIGGER difference because of how much it will open up the running game. Plus with Moss as a receiver, Daunte made All-Pro. With Moss as a receiver, Brett should be All-World, because you only have to read half the field to make your passing decision. Plus there is ALWAYS Daunte’s favorite pass, Moss one-on-one with a DB and he would throw up his hand and it always a long reception if not a touchdown!
Per WCG
“I wasn’t scared of them and by picking up all star (WTF??) Charles Grant it will be an easy W.”
AHAHAHAHAHAAH
by Jepp The Viking on Oct 6, 2010 12:04 PM CDT reply actions
DVW was being sarcastic...
hence, calling Charles Grant an all-star
-------
www.cheekymonkeyart.com | facebook.com/cheekymonkeyart | twitter.com/cheekymonkeyart
by David Taylor on Oct 6, 2010 12:46 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm with you.
I’m a big fan of sarcasm.
-------
cheekymonkeyart.com | facebook.com/cheekymonkeyart | twitter.com/cheekymonkeyart
All for less than a 3rd round pick!
I just read the Vikings had to give up a 3rd round pick in 2011, but also get a 7th round pick from New England in 2012.
WOW, Randy Moss for less than a 3rd round pick. Things must of been going very badly between Moss and the Patriots.
Basically we traded Moss for Sage and Reynaud.
I’ll take that trade all day! Now I just hope he can catch up quickly with us and start performing better than he has for NE lately.
It's a lot easier to love the Vikings when they win...
he will
I think he’ll come out on fire. Then get bored, or lazy, or whatever happens to Moss when he loses interest.
wow.
what will it take to get you fired up about this team?
I BELIEVE...
by ArizonaVikingsFan on Oct 6, 2010 1:16 PM CDT up reply actions
The Vikes up by 52 in the 4th quarter of the super bowl with only 30 seconds on teh clock
and even then I would be thinking we’re not going to win this… Some kind of asteroid or something is going to hit the stadium…
It's a lot easier to love the Vikings when they win...
hahaha
Wouldn’t that just be a bunch of crap?? Even when we win, we don’t win… Ha-Ha!
The only year the Superbowl is rated as an unifinished game and to go w/o a rematch is because of something like what you posted.
I would truly believe, we are a jinxed franchise.
i just checked w/ nasa...
…no asteroid impact scheduled until at least march.. we should be good there..
"the following statement is true:
the preceding statement was false" - george carlin
by BranFavrenton on Oct 7, 2010 10:01 AM CDT up reply actions
Was it a 4th?
something like that. close enough for government work
It's a lot easier to love the Vikings when they win...
4th and a conditional 5th
Pretty close when you trade a 3rd and get back a 7th! I am sure we could trade the 4th and 5th and the 7th we got and get a low (projected Vikes finish) 3rd back so yeah, pretty even.
...and less than a season.
Randy Moss for less than a 3d round pick? I can’t take it any more.
You don’t trade for a player, people, you trade for their contract. and this one is for 13 games only, which makes a 3rd round pick value at best. I highly doubt we can get a new deal done for next year with all the players we need to resign (Greenway, edwards, etc.).
Mind you… I don’t care… the timing is right and we’re built to win now. But we need to stop calling this a “steal”
I think people are calling it a deal
and a good one. A steal not so much, however it is very good for this team and I just can’t ’see people arguing that.
It's a lot easier to love the Vikings when they win...
PERFECT FIT!
Moss now has a QB that understands dogging it and a coach who accepts it. This should be good enough to keep Moss happy for most games (this year)
Heech
You are one negative Nancy. Put a smile on man! The Freak is back!
by Jepp The Viking on Oct 6, 2010 1:17 PM CDT up reply actions
now all we need
is a coach that understands that playing those 5 together 85% of the time would be extremely beneficial to our season.
Chase Utley is a Nick Punto-type player, but with power--Bert Blyleven
Moss also blocks downfield
Don’t forget that during his first stint with the Vikings, Randy Moss used to throw excellent blocks down field for Robert Smith. Remember who taught him that? Chris Carter, who also threw great blocks down field.
Spartan99 you got that right.
AD is running like a man possessed this year. Having Randy as a deep threat can only help AD.
Lets get some help on the O line. Get Mankins, Trade BB if needed. If we can give Favre that extra second upright this team is back in Superbowl mold.
I like pie!
pie ala mold
I BELIEVE...
by ArizonaVikingsFan on Oct 6, 2010 2:28 PM CDT up reply actions
So....
Will Randy catch Favre’s 500th??!!
I BELIEVE...
by ArizonaVikingsFan on Oct 6, 2010 3:32 PM CDT reply actions
It isn't often that I would find
trading draft picks for a 33 year old disgruntled WR as a good idea. However, Moss is very productive and we need help now. I think because it is only a one year contract it worked out well for both parties. We want to win a Superbowl. Randy wants to win a Superbowl.
Lets just go ahead and do that. We have the QB , the RB, the WR, and a defense. To good to be true.
"Is it normal to wake up in the morning in a sweat because you can't wait to beat another human's guts out?"
Joe Kapp
It's ridiculous
I’m still giddy about it, was worthless at work today, my mind is constantly running permutations involving Moss, Harvin, Peterson, Rice, Favre, and even Gerhart. I couldn’t have gotten away with a line up like this in any fantasy football league.
Ah, ah,
We come from the land of the ice and snow,
From the midnight sun where the hot springs blow.
The hammer of the gods will drive our ships to new lands,
To fight the horde, singing and crying: Valhalla, I am coming!
SKOL!
This is AWESOME
Great news! Favre and Moss together could be huge. This is just the shot in the arm Minnesota needed. My newspaper clipping from the future that reads “Vikes miss the playoffs as Favre comeback bombs” just changed (lame Back to the Future joke).
________________________________________________
www.lordkayoss.com
Best quote so far
“It’s kind of a, ’Man, we wish this would have happened a week later,”’ Jets running back LaDainian Tomlinson said.
This brings up an interesting point … did Bellicheck try to time this trade so that it might possibly hurt the Jets? I notice that Accuscore thinks this improves outlook for the Jets overall, but not that much. Maybe this Monday is why.
I agree
Pats may of thought…. Vikings were going to be good enough to possibly beat the Jets, but they lacked an offensive weapon. By doing this, they may have increased their chances to beat the Jets. The Jets have been game-planning against an offense that is pretty weak in the pass-game, and focuses primarily w/ a successful run-game. Now we have Moss, and they’ll have no idea on how to game-plan correctly for them.
This could be a switch-up in which they may not be able to correctively game-plan for.
A receiver familiar w/ their defense, yet, a defense that won’t be so familiar w/ how Randy will be utilized. Odds are in Randy’s favor to be successful.
The Jet's have been playing Moss for a while now
One might even say that’s one of the big reasons they picked up Revis. Go to the Pats board and many of them are stating that their league drafted people and schemed so that they could take Moss out of the equation. The lucky thing for us is that the Pats really don’t have a running game worth a bean usually so the Jets will have to work past that little hiccup.
Man I want us to intercept Sanchez.
It's a lot easier to love the Vikings when they win...
2nd best quote
There is yet another “schism” article over at yahoo sports. This time about Favre & Chilly. But there is a good quote from (supposedly) a Vikings player concerning the Moss trade buried in there:
Locker-room sources say the frost between Childress and Favre is palpable right now, a bad situation obviously exacerbated by the Vikings’ disappointing 1-2 start. The surprising trade that brings Moss back to Minneapolis, on the heels of a failed attempt to land disgruntled San Diego Chargers wideout Vincent Jackson(notes), is a last-ditch effort to salvage an increasingly volatile situation – one which could take down virtually all of the leading figures if things break the wrong way.
Oddly enough, I kind of love the move. Though I can see disaster unfolding the way you can 10 minutes into a bad action thriller, another part of me believes it’s just crazy enough to work.
As the previously quoted Vikings player added: "I think it’s all or nothing. It’s either the missing piece and we go all the way, or Moss takes on Chilly and this thing blows up by the end of October. There’s no C grade on this one. It’ll either be an A or an F."
I'm good with that :)
Ah, ah,
We come from the land of the ice and snow,
From the midnight sun where the hot springs blow.
The hammer of the gods will drive our ships to new lands,
To fight the horde, singing and crying: Valhalla, I am coming!
SKOL!
3rd best quote
Visanthe Shiancoe:
If we play our cards right, that equals domination. Complete domination if our cards are played right.
I'm going with this one!
I BELIEVE...
by ArizonaVikingsFan on Oct 6, 2010 5:40 PM CDT up reply actions
that's a slap at Chilly by Shank
Who’s in charge of playing the cards (the offensive weapons) right? Chilly
Chase Utley is a Nick Punto-type player, but with power--Bert Blyleven
not sure why you say that
“we” is the team. What’s wrong with talking about being the team as one, why is that a slap at the coach???
Besides, Chilly alone “playing his cards right” will be meaningless if the players don’t also step up. I see it the exact opposite, it would have been a slap if Shank had said it was all on Childress. that’s not true. The offense (particularity WR, OL, QB — TE and RB are fine, more or less) have to start “playing their cards” better.
I doubt it
Moss would be playing the jets twice anyhow, what does it matter if it is now or week 13?
by Bjorno on Oct 6, 2010 8:38 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
It could not have happened week 13, because no one would (or even could?) trade for Moss then. His contract runs out this year, he is FA after then. If Pats kept him through week 13, there would only be three games left. No one would trade a third round draft pick for a contract that only lasts 3 games.
Read my post again.
I said what does it matter if moss plays the jets in week 5 or week 13.
NOT what does it matter if he is traded now or week 13, because the trade deadline is week 6 so he couldn’t be traded after that point.
I was just stating that Belicheck was not trading Moss to us in an attempt to hurt the Jets because Moss would be playing the Jets once more regardless.
i think the pats traded randy away to make room for vincent jackson on the pats roster.
in the future there will be no war...there will only be rollerball.
i'm serious. have the pats filled randy's roster spot yet?
in the future there will be no war...there will only be rollerball.
look at this...
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=nfp-20101008_patriots_exploring_trade_for_vincent_jackson
in the future there will be no war...there will only be rollerball.
As far as Vikings.com is concerned...
Randy will be keeping #84.
by Bjorno on Oct 6, 2010 9:15 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
he is listed on vikings.com in the roster as #84
AND they are hawking his #84 jersey!
I BELIEVE...
by ArizonaVikingsFan on Oct 6, 2010 10:18 PM CDT up reply actions
Good
I was hearing different things. I won’t have to replce my old jersey, Sure benice to waer that on Monday.
What the heck! I’ll wear it to the Doctors tomorrow.Gotta get the Karma flowing
if Favre has a pretty good year
Do you think the thought of having Moss, Harvin, Rice and Shank all healthy will actually get him into camp next year?
Or do you thinkthe Vikings will focus on another established QB who will be in camp?
You forgot to mention. the Best RB
in Adrian Petersen
McNabb would rock………. and finally get his ring …….. after Farve gets his,,,,,
i truly see several in a row…….
SKOL
too early
it remains to be seen whether Vikings will even want him back. If the ankle continues to graw as an issue … maybe not.
Personally I don't really want him back.
I mean good luck to him and happy to have him, but I’d rather have a QB that will show up to practice and work with the team as a leader and a team member. Of course I would also like aliens to kidnap Childress…
It's a lot easier to love the Vikings when they win...
aliens already did kidnap him once..
…but he got away by boring them to sleep w/ his monotone delivery..
"the following statement is true:
the preceding statement was false" - george carlin
by BranFavrenton on Oct 7, 2010 10:07 AM CDT up reply actions
I wonder why no other team jumped in and offerred a 1st or 2nd for Moss?
He’s always open. He catches a lot of balls. He’s un-guardable, no matter how old he is
Randy wanted to go to MN...
… and Billichek was rewarding him…
that’s the rumor, anyhow.
I BELIEVE...
by ArizonaVikingsFan on Oct 6, 2010 10:19 PM CDT up reply actions
or coming at it the other way ..
Randy wanted to go to MN…
… and all the other teams know that if Randy doesn’t get sent a place he wants to go, he will play half-assed and it would have been a waste for a 1st or 2nd to get him for 12 games …
We are headed to the cellar!
Three things in life are certain….death, taxes and the Vikings losing in the playoffs (if they make it that far)!!
You have been here less than a month
And basically have nothing positive to say. really how much must your life suck that you need to make up an alias to blast someone elses board? Personally the ban hammer looks to have your name on it.
It's a lot easier to love the Vikings when they win...
u can flame on all u want..
…just dont put “we” in your posts…as u r clearly not one of “us”!!
"the following statement is true:
the preceding statement was false" - george carlin
by BranFavrenton on Oct 7, 2010 10:09 AM CDT up reply actions
It'll be huge.
Lifelong Arizona Cardinals/Chicago Bears fan [I have always lived in Arizona, dad is from Chicago].
I can't stand fair-weather/bandwagon fans, stick with your team(s), throughout the good and the bad. And don't switch to whichever team wins the Super Bowl each year.
I can't wait for Monday
Even if Randy is a decoy all night. I can’t wait to see AP gash that vaunted Jets defense. And see Revis pull another hammy.
Giddy in Minny, and depressed/in denial in Cheeseland
Too bad the Twinks had to open their playoffs on the day Moss came back home—-they got drowned out. Oh, well—-they Yankees are the Yankees and nobody cares about baseball, anyway.
Oct 24th can’t get here soon enough. Meatpackers just lost Barnett for the year, and they saw what Detroit did to their secondary. Detroit! Think what the Vikes are gonna do. They’re over there talking about how much taller their cornerbacks are now. How great is that! Still not sure how much threat Chicago is, but from the pounding they took by the Giants—-probly not much….
Schedule turns manly starting now—-but same thing for the schnack-pack. We’ll know a lot more by Halloween. Promises to be an interesting ride…
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