Debunking the Myth of the First-Round Savior

I’d rather hope—HOPE—that Joe Webb performs miracles over the next three games and beyond. We have too many holes on this team to trade the farm for the first overall or top-five pick.

Apparently begging for rec’s works.

Nothing against all the hard work you put in OVF, and perhaps its because I am jaded from following the draft for as long as I have, but I have seen this kind of argument before. And what it really proves is something we already know: Finding a quarterback is a hit or miss prospect. If anything, the lesson is draft a lot of quarterbacks and the law of averages will yield you at least one.
There is so much more information needed when talking about Super Bowl winning quarterbacks. The number of factors that go into winning the Super Bowl go way beyond the round the quarterback was drafted in. Why were they drafted where they were? Did they fall to the 3rd or 4th round because of injury? Technical deficiencies? Physical deficiencies? What was the situation they were drafted into? Was it a bad team or was he surrounded with talent? Did they play right away or sit for a year or two before going in? Did they get to play because of their talent or get their break due to injury?
How much did he contribute to winning the Super Bowl? Was Brad Johnson’s win equal to Peyton Manning’s? Whats there to make then of the differences in Ben Roethlisberger’s two Super Bowl wins? Did they win the Super Bowl by having the game of his life or was he a leader through out the season? So you can see, by only using the round they were drafted in as the sole focus of your argument misses out on so much more pertinent information that goes into winning the Super Bowl.
Also, if you look again at which quarterbacks have won the Super Bowl and what round they were drafted in, you’ll find that only 6 of the 28 quarter backs that have won the Super Bowl weren’t draft in the first 3 rounds. And 4 of those 6 were drafted in rounds that no longer exist (8th or lower). You point out that 12 of the 28 winners (you say 12 but list 14 who were drafted in the first, including Steve Young) were drafted in the first and that it is less that 50% of the total number of winners. But you completely gloss over the fact that at 43% (actually 50% because you missed two), the 1st rounders still represent the majority of winners in the Super Bowl (11% 2nd round, 7% 3rd, 4% 4th, 7% 6th, 14% from rounds that no longer exist based on the rounds you gave).
Something else missing is how all of your research relates to the Vikings current situation. The Vikings in the past 5 years have taken quarterbacks in the 2nd (Jackson), 5th (Booty), 7th (Thigpen), undrafted (Archer), and countless free agents (including two that have won Super Bowls: Brad Johnson and Brett Farve). Perhaps its time to try the route that they haven’t tried yet and find the quarterback they think has the best talent in the draft and go a get him. Quarterbacks maybe a hit or miss proposition, but in order to get the homer run quarterback, you got to risk taking a big swing and continuing to draft lower round quarterbacks and free agent retreads and hoping for one to work out hasn’t. Sure the Vikings have problems in other areas, but so did the Giants and Chargers when they took Eli and Rivers. So did the Colts when they took Peyton, Cowboys took Aikmen, etc because when you draft high you are drafting high for a reason and its usually because your team has lots of holes. The difference is that these teams found the quarterback they wanted and went and got him. All the other holes fixed themselves over time because once they had their QB they could focus on the other parts needed to win the Super Bowl. Of course there are pieces that wouldn’t be available as trade ammo, but maybe only 6 are truely off limits due to talent and age (JA, KWill, Greenway, Peterson, Harvin, and Rice) and once there is a quarterback to build around those pieces, those players lost in any trade can be replaced with other picks or free agents. The Vikings have tried all their other options in getting a quarterback to lead this team. Its time to try something different, its time for them to find the quarterback they love and not wait or hope that he falls to them, but go and get him.

Sound perspective…and just to add to the post, all have prolly seen me go on about Andy Dalton. This is a guy that is the definition of “Young Gun” sort of rough edges in the way he plays the game. He’s not hyped he has the old schoolers of scouting respect as a really good football knowledge player. He’ll go 1-8 Im thinking I cant be the only guy that see’s it in him so someone will prolly bust ranks and scoop him 1-4. You really have to go and read about him over all I dont think he’s a Leaf (wich in my opin yah kinda risk more that when yah take 1-2) He’s just plane sound not overly done and what I really like is with scouts they say he is a guy you build around because his best atribute is that he plays within his self not fitting a prodotype style. I should prolly get some links up on him so peeps can actualy get an idea :)

I appreciate all the time and effort into the research. It makes discussions a lot of fun because we can discuss facts rather than opinions.

That said I have some major disagreement with your analysis.
First: Your premise is that less than 50% of the 1st round QBs win SBs since the merger in 1970. I dislike using that date as a starting point. 1970 was still an era of run first football. The QB position was less important to winning than it is today. I believe that the Bill Walsh type approach to football modernized the QB position. I haven’t ran the numbers if the dates were changed but I would find them more relevant.

The second point I would make is that your premise is this. Taking a QB in the 1st round, disregarding the coaching style, management changes, or the myriad of other factors affecting a football team still produces 33% of the SB winners. I don’t think one can look at these things in a vacumn. No one that I know is advocating taking a QB in the first round simply to take a SB quarterback. Rather, we are advocating that the highly talented QB players , with the apparent ability to win one or more SBs, will only be available in the 1st round.. This is an entirely different concept than you are discussing.

Three: Over the last two years I have discovered these statistical facts. I haven’t saved all the articles but just assume I am right for arguments sake.
    60% of franchise QBs are drafted in the first two picks of the draft.
    50% of franchise QBs are drafted in the first round
    30% of franchise QBs are drafted in the 2nd round
    10% of franchise QBs are drafted after the first two rounds or are undrafted
     Each round of the draft provides a smaller percentage of franchise QBs.

These facts prove one thing. That the CHANCES of a player having the skills necessary to play in the NFL as a QB are correctly rated and evaluated by the NFL draft pros. They are not perfect but they are correct overall in their judgment.

Three: The goal of the Vikings is to win a Superbowl. The way to get there is to draft a “Franchise QB” . My definition of that is a QB that can play at a SB winning level for 7+ years. A QB like Dan Marino qualifies. McNabb qualifies. Duante Culpepper qualifies. Phillip Rivers qualifies. None of these guys won a SB. But all played with the ability to win a SB. That is the goal of the organization.

4th: The Vikes are a team that had a good base. Solid Ownership. A solid coaching philosophy. Those kind of teams rarely get to pick early in the draft. The last time was 2007. We did not select a QB for one of two reasons. Either our FO did not evaluate the potential players as a “franchise QB” or they felt T-Jack was a “franchise QB”. I would propose that no matter how highly rated AP was in that draft, if we had evaluated a “franchise QB” and one was available we could not afford to pass on one. This year is no different.

It is our chance to make hay while the sun shines. The other pieces are easier to find. We can move up to get our guy this year if we have to. But there is no guarantee we will draft this high again for awhile ( at least I hope we don’t). This is our time. This is our chance. This is time to make the one and only choice if it is available. We have the opportunity to draft our new Tarkington. Our new Rothlisberger. Our new Peyton Manning. Our new Face of the Franchise.

If the opportunity presents itself we must take it. No matter what else. That is the way to build a SB contending football team.

Really good thought into all the above posts guys, hopefully our FO and who ever coach’s are as indulgent

Although you did an admirable job of researching your post, your conclusion doesn’t quite debunk drafting a franchise QB in the first round.

If “only” 40something% of SB winning QBs are first rounders, that still says a lot in favor of drafting one since the remaining 50something% of them are divided by 7 other categories (2nd rd, 3rd rd….undrafted). Drafting a franchise QB in the 1st round still has the highest % of working out than in any other particular round.

Another angle for this sort of study would be do analyze the % of HoF QBs selected in the first and subsequent rounds. I don’t have those numbers handy, but that approach also favored 1st round QBs last time I looked.

What about the odds of draftina a guy who is good enough to take your team to the SB, even if the team loses? That list would add McNabb, Kerry Collins and others to the list. If the list were expanded to the conference championship game, you’d see even more on that list, including Michael Vick. It is neither fair nor useful to reduce the outcome of those games to who was playing QB.

Trent Dilfer was drafted # 6 overall?

Once the bowl and professional regular seasons are over, there will be some cues as to who and what the Vikings will be looking for:

• Who’s pro day do coaches and/or GM Rick Spielman attend?
• Who do they interview at the Combine and/or games such as the Senior Bowl or East/West Shrine game?
• Who do they bring in to Winter Park for personal workouts?

Players who have been drafted by the Vikings since Spielman was hired have all meet with the Vikings in each of these capacities. The Vikings went to the Pro Day and personally worked out Chris Cook. Same with Harvin and Loadholt. Current practice squad player Ryan D’Imperio was famously discovered when Spielman attended his pro day and had the then linebacker run fullback drills. Every year there are little blurbs in different corners of the internet and sports media report when the Vikings meet with these prospects and when they do, be sure to share them and start doing what you got to do to learn as much about them as possible. Here are a few sites the I like to follow for this kind of news:

• NFLMocks A great scouting site, they also have a growing library of full game film on this years prospects.
• Drat Countdown Does a good job of highlighting player interviews at the Senior Bowl and is another good scouting site.
• Mocking the Draft This is the SBNations own drafting site
• Draft Breakdown Another good scouting site with good prospect videos

There are a lot of variables that go into a team, and a QB is just one of them. One thing about that list and today is the way the game is played now. The passing game is more important now than it was 20 years ago, and the position is a lot more important, in many ways, than it was back when say Bradshaw and Dawson were playing.

But you still have to be a leader, and a guy that the rest of the team trusts, but that’s the thing you can’t measure, which is why the postion is so hit and miss.

Manning – Leaf such comparison will always start a conversation but there are only 1 – 3 real first-round winners EVER every draft! The rest end up with Heath Shuler, David Carr, Brady Quinn, Todd Marinovich, Matt Leinert, or worse.

Let me take a second to express my awe and gratitude to the moderators and contributors to this site for placing this FanPost on the front page- this is something, and something I certainly didn’t expect. I’m honored.

Secondly, let me also express an EQUAL amount of awe and gratitude to the various fans who have read and posted arguments, thoughts, etc. showing an equal amount of depth and thought as I feel I put into this- it sure is nice to not have a post filled with troll-based arguments but actual constructive, fact based conversation.

Glad I could contribute in such a way. This post might be a tad before its time, but at this point in the season, why NOT look ahead to such things?

Again- thanks to the moderators for adding this to the main page, and thanks to all those who have put such thoughtful posts to only increase the quality of this.

I feel has been taken a little off point here. My fault for not following basic writing 101 rules and leaving out a good ‘in summary’ ending… that’s why I’m not a real contributor to this site. :P

My point in writing all of this is, in fact, threefold. I’ve touched on them above but let me summarize here.

1.) To keep people from feeling we need to ‘go wild’ in the draft to find, hence the title, the first round quarterback savior.
I have read a number of FanPosts and comments on who we should trade to improve our draft spots. Some I feel should be traded regardless- Berrian, for example. Others are, in my opinion, TERRIBLE ideas- Jared Allen, Percy Harvin, for example. Noooooo. A football team requires far more than just a good quarterback to succeed, and hopefully the above also illustrates the point that by gutting the team to get a good quarterback, the odds are STILL against you getting one- you’re going to destroy the team on a statistically losing gamble. This also holds true with giving up additional draft picks to move up- we already lit our 3rd round pick on fire and watched it burn, and with the legion of other issues we have, this is equally suicidal.
2.) The idea that by drafting a high level quarterback, our issues at that position are solved.
I again point to Matthew Stafford as an example of this. Theoretically, you could even use TJack. Using Webb now, with the season lost and our other two quarterbacks hurt ANYWAYS, is fine as the pressure is off. However, putting a rookie behind a vastly inferior O-line, with the pressure of a whole franchise behind him, statistically FAILS. As I’ve said a few times above, we’re going to need another rental. Someone to let the rookie sit andlearn, develop as they should. I think I added in a reply above that, to me, one of the reasons the Mannings succeeded was because their father gave them extra preperation. Cam Newton’s father, on the other hand, sought to turn his son into financial gain. Not a good start.
3.) Keep your expectations LOW.
Back after drafting TJack, when Brad Johnson was underperforming, Vikings fans in the stadium chanted for Tavaris to start. Obviously, we put pressure on a young quarterback who proved unable to cope with it. Now, we can argue back and forth whether he, had he just sat regardless, would have ultimately proven otherwise- but the Eagles playoff game further showed a quarterback unable to cope with pressure. Michael Vick is in fact another great example- give a quarterback the world and every belief that he’s your savior, and he may go overboard. If we draft Luck, then we need to SIT him for a season, regardless of what McNabb (or whoever we rent) performs, until perhaps the end of a lost season. Or WHOEVER we draft. Tom Brady sat for some time befor being given the go-ahead- so did Aaron Rodgers.

All in all, this post was not meant to criticize the idea of drafting a quarterback, or drafting one early on. It’s meant to give everything a temperment- an understanding that, when we do draft a QB, the odds are against him being our savior, just the thing we needed all along. Doing stupid things to get a quarterback, or stupid things AFTER getting a quarterback, is shown to give you a large margin of failure- NOT success. And yes, for me as a Vikings fan, I count success in Super Bowl rings.

You’re right. Crap, I think I mixed something up in my research… ah, hell.

But it changes nothing.

You forgot to look at the odds of picking up a franchise-quality QB in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th rounds. I don’t know what they are, but I have this nagging feeling that they’re considerably lower than the 1st rounders. Is there a shot at grabbing The Guy in the 7th? Sure! Is it likely? No.

I know the team has other holes that need to be filled, most notably the O-line, which despite my Cassandra-like warnings over the past two years, the Vikings have done little to properly shore up (why don’t they listen to me, damnit?!?). But the QB is the key to the offense and the key to the overall success of the team. Without a competent QB at the helm, the team is in trouble. With a great QB at the helm, the team has a core around which to build. If the Vikings get the franchise-QB guy, they have many years of drafts, trades, and FAs to build around him. He’s the hardest position to fill and the whole team has to be geared to his strengths and be able to compensate for his weaknesses. Bottom line is, fill this need first, and the rest comes fairly easily.

The Vikings don’t have a lot of shots at a top draft pick, they need to make each one count. This upcoming draft is one of those special opportunities.

We need to draft the best QB we can, this year, and every year, until we find our guy.

Percentages are fine things, but we don’t have God’s Own Dice to roll and consult. We takes our chances and accepts our results.

In the last ten years 15 “franchise” QBs have come out of the draft. 14 came in the 1st round. Drew Brees was the first pick of the second round. Not one other successful NFL QB came out of the draft. I think 147 QBs have been drafted. I will have to check the numbers when I have more time.

Here are the odds as I have always understood them from the passing era (1980)

60%- if one of the first two QBs taken
50% if taken in the first round
30% if taken in the second round
10% for all other rounds
each round is a lower % than the next.

And let’s look at another oddity we might see in the list above: the further back you go, the higher the success with first rounders. Why? Because college football and the NFL have been gradually growing apart. The sports were once far more similar than they are today, and this affects a team and scouts’ general ability to asses potential talent in the big league.

I almost forgot this part. This is something which continues to perplex me. Why is it that college football programs are no longer concerned with preparing their students for a professional career? Isn’t that really what college is supposed to be about? Heh, yes, that was naive, to think it was about the students, but I’m trying to focus on core principle here, not reality.

I’m starting to wonder whether we should go o-line in the first round. Other than Hutchinson, nobody on the line is a standout player. We need a new left tackle really bad. McKinnie must go.

If we bring in a rookie quarterback without the o-line, it’s going to ruin the draft pick.

I checked the list of where each Super Bowl winning QB was taken in the draft above, and 12 were taken outside of the first round, 13 if you count Kurt Warner (although you did specify drafted overall, and he wasn’t drafted), and 14 with the tricky Steve Young scenario. (Obviously that whole issue is open to a ton of debate.)

Now, as far as answering how many quarterbacks were taken outside of the first round altogether, compared to that- I’m not sure I could find that list but yes, it would be HUGE! But that’s really not part of the issue- you see, most quarterbacks taken outside of the first round didn’t have the expectation to win a Super Bowl. Brett Favre was taken to be a backup and was traded away a year later. Tom Brady was taken as an afterthought. So yes, to say 12 out of the hundreds (and I’m very confident that’s not an exageration) of quarterbacks taken outside of the first round won a Super Bowl is going to yield an incredibly low percentage is absolutely true.

But my argument is simply this- it’s NOT that we should wait till the second, third, or later rounds to draft a QB. We need to use our first pick to draft a QB, particularly in this unusually heavy QB draft. I just don’t want to see us get stupid and end up with a JaMarcus Russel who completely bombs… I don’t want to see us with a Matthew Stafford who is going to die before getting to the playoffs because we ignored O-line in our desperation for a QB… and I don’t want to see us with a Michael Vick, who’s going to let the glory, fame, and money go to his head and completely screw us, only to go on and win a Super Bowl for another team. All three of those scenarios are going to keep us away from a Lombardi for years to come, and we’ll squander a great opportunity to FINALLY get a franchise quarterback (which we’ve done all of twice- Tarkenton and Culpepper), and even better, a franchise quarterback who will get us a Super Bowl win.

We can get so caught up with getting a first round quarterback, and believing that our savior has come, that we end up completely blowing the opportunity.