I have enjoyed the articles and comments concerning the QB myth. Excuses why a team doesn't need to expend a high price and top pick on a top level QB. False assumptions that a third round draft pick is better than a first rounder. Lets explore the facts over the last ten years. I am choosing this number for a couple of reasons. First its easy. Second, its the after Manning era. Face it. Ever since Peyton Manning was drafted every team has wanted one. They have wanted one so bad that they have mortgaged their heart and soul to get one. Lets jump right up and see how they have done.
The first thing I want to do is define what constitutes a Franchise QB. Here is my definition.
A Franchise QB is a QB that can play at a level high enough to lead a team to multiple Super Bowls.
I realize this as a subjective definition. But the point is that a quarterback who is small and frail probably can't do this. A QB that is inaccurate in his passing probably can't do this. A QB that fails to lead to his team to victory when the chips are down probably can't do this. Dan Marino could do this. But he never won a Super bowl. He still was a franchise QB.
So lets look at a list of all QBs drafted. Here is that list so you can make your own decisions. HERE
Over the last ten years here are the QBs drafted in the first round or the top 2 QBs drafted in that year( if only one in the first round).
Vick, Brees, Carr, Harrington, Ramsey, Palmer, Leftwich, Boller, Grossman, Eli Manning, Rivers, Rothlisberger, Losman, Smith, Rodgers, Campbell, Young, Lienhart, Cutler, Russell, Quinn, Ryan, Flacco, Stafford, Sanchez, Bradford, Tebow.
These 27 QBs were drafted with the faith that they could provide long term answers for their team at the QB position.
132 QBs were drafted during that time.
Only one QB, Matt Cassell has come out of the remaining 95 QB's to lead an NFL team and look like a possible Franchise QB.
If I were to make my list of Franchise guys out of the 27 here it is.
Vick, Brees, Palmer, Manning, Rivers, Rothlisberger, Rodgers, Cutler, Ryan, Flacco, Stafford, Bradford.
Tebow and Sanchez might be but I'm not convinced. Some might argue with Palmer but he played at a very high level for years. In any event its my list. You can make your own.
The stats are these. 44% were franchise guys.
1% of QBs drafted after the first round( or 1st two QBs taken) were Franchise QBs.
Feel free to make your own list and use whatever numbers you want. The number that will not significantly change is the second fact. Even if you found 5 guys on that list or added undrafted franchise guys the number of successful QBs will be dismally low.
Now I would appreciate it if everyone would quit spewing this nonsense that we can wait until the second round or later to find a great QB. It doesn't happen very often. It is a matter of luck, not skillful evaluation that allows a team to draft a QB late in the draft. I keep reminding everyone that the Patriots decided at the last second to take Brady over another Qb in the 6th round. Even they didn't think he was worth a 5th round pick.
If you ever want a highly talented potential franchise QB then you have to evaluate that player and grab on to him early. Evaluation is the key. Paying the price is secondary.
For the record. 7 out of the last 10 top QBs taken in the draft have made the list. Yep, 60% of my franchise QBs were the #1 overall QB taken.
It is not a myth that the Savior of football teams come out of the first round. It is a reality.
Please feel free to respond to the point of this post. If you disagree on my list that's fine. Make your own and do the numbers. I'm not trying to argue who is and isn't a Franchise Guy. I just want to see why anyone feels that non first round talent is good enough.