Based on the top 120 single season performances by passer rating index (a.k.a. RATE+), the Vikings should not worry too much about drafting a quarterback in the first round.
Here are the top 120 seasons by NFL quarterbacks in terms of passer rating index (120 = 20% better than the average QB's passer rating that year; 115 = 15% better than the average QB's passer rating that year, and so on) from 2000 to 2009:
Rk 5 | Player | Year | Age | Draft | How acq | Tm | GS | Rate+ | Sack%+ |
1 | Peyton Manning | 2004 | 28 | 1-Jan | D | IND | 16 | 151 | 128 |
2 | Tom Brady | 2007 | 30 | 6-199 | D | NWE | 16 | 148 | 117 |
3 | Daunte Culpepper | 2004 | 27 | 11-Jan | D | MIN | 16 | 138 | 92 |
4 | Chad Pennington | 2002 | 26 | 18-Jan | D | NYJ | 12 | 138 | 108 |
5 | Brian Griese | 2000 | 25 | Mar-91 | D | DEN | 10 | 135 | 113 |
6 | Drew Brees | 2009 | 30 | Feb-32 | FA | NOR | 15 | 132 | 117 |
7 | Kurt Warner | 2001 | 30 | FA | STL | 16 | 132 | 101 | |
8 | Drew Brees | 2004 | 25 | Feb-32 | D | SDG | 15 | 131 | 116 |
9 | Donovan McNabb | 2004 | 28 | 2-Jan | D | PHI | 15 | 131 | 101 |
10 | Ben Roethlisberger | 2007 | 25 | 11-Jan | D | PIT | 15 | 130 | 73 |
11 | Brett Favre | 2009 | 40 | Feb-33 | FA | MIN | 16 | 129 | 100 |
12 | Peyton Manning | 2005 | 29 | 1-Jan | D | IND | 16 | 129 | 120 |
13 | Daunte Culpepper | 2000 | 23 | 11-Jan | D | MIN | 16 | 128 | 102 |
14 | Rich Gannon | 2002 | 37 | Apr-98 | FA | OAK | 16 | 128 | 107 |
15 | David Garrard | 2007 | 29 | 4-108 | D | JAX | 12 | 128 | 101 |
16 | Kurt Warner | 2000 | 29 | FA | STL | 11 | 128 | 109 | |
17 | Jeff Garcia | 2000 | 30 | FA | SFO | 16 | 127 | 118 | |
18 | Philip Rivers | 2008 | 27 | 4-Jan | T | SDG | 16 | 127 | 107 |
19 | Peyton Manning | 2006 | 30 | 1-Jan | D | IND | 16 | 126 | 125 |
20 | Steve McNair | 2003 | 30 | 3-Jan | D | TEN | 14 | 126 | 113 |
21 | Carson Palmer | 2005 | 26 | 1-Jan | D | CIN | 16 | 125 | 120 |
22 | Philip Rivers | 2009 | 28 | 4-Jan | T | SDG | 16 | 125 | 108 |
23 | Rich Gannon | 2001 | 36 | Apr-98 | FA | OAK | 16 | 124 | 112 |
24 | Peyton Manning | 2003 | 27 | 1-Jan | D | IND | 16 | 124 | 122 |
25 | Aaron Rodgers | 2009 | 26 | 24-Jan | D | GNB | 16 | 124 | 81 |
26 | Jeff Garcia | 2001 | 31 | FA | SFO | 16 | 123 | 111 | |
27 | Peyton Manning | 2000 | 24 | 1-Jan | D | IND | 16 | 123 | 122 |
28 | Brett Favre | 2001 | 32 | Feb-33 | T | GNB | 16 | 122 | 116 |
29 | Matt Hasselbeck | 2005 | 30 | 6-187 | T | SEA | 16 | 122 | 110 |
30 | Peyton Manning | 2007 | 31 | 1-Jan | D | IND | 16 | 122 | 114 |
31 | Ben Roethlisberger | 2004 | 22 | 11-Jan | D | PIT | 13 | 122 | 81 |
32 | Ben Roethlisberger | 2005 | 23 | 11-Jan | D | PIT | 12 | 122 | 92 |
33 | Brian Griese | 2004 | 29 | Mar-91 | FA | TAM | 10 | 121 | 96 |
34 | Brad Johnson | 2002 | 34 | 9-227 | FA | TAM | 13 | 121 | 114 |
35 | Ben Roethlisberger | 2009 | 27 | 11-Jan | D | PIT | 15 | 121 | 77 |
36 | Tony Romo | 2007 | 27 | FA | DAL | 16 | 121 | 111 | |
37 | Drew Brees | 2006 | 27 | Feb-32 | FA | NOR | 16 | 120 | 121 |
38 | Daunte Culpepper | 2003 | 26 | 11-Jan | D | MIN | 14 | 120 | 93 |
39 | Rich Gannon | 2000 | 35 | Apr-98 | FA | OAK | 16 | 120 | 108 |
40 | Trent Green | 2002 | 32 | 8-222 | T | KAN | 16 | 120 | 108 |
41 | Peyton Manning | 2009 | 33 | 1-Jan | D | IND | 16 | 120 | 133 |
42 | Brett Favre | 2007 | 38 | Feb-33 | T | GNB | 16 | 119 | 122 |
43 | Trent Green | 2004 | 34 | 8-222 | T | KAN | 16 | 119 | 108 |
44 | Donovan McNabb | 2006 | 30 | 2-Jan | D | PHI | 10 | 119 | 101 |
45 | Tony Romo | 2006 | 26 | FA | DAL | 10 | 119 | 104 | |
46 | Matt Schaub | 2009 | 28 | Mar-90 | T | HOU | 16 | 118 | 114 |
47 | Marc Bulger | 2004 | 27 | 6-168 | D | STL | 14 | 117 | 91 |
48 | Jeff Garcia | 2007 | 37 | FA | TAM | 13 | 117 | 104 | |
49 | Elvis Grbac | 2000 | 30 | 8-219 | T | KAN | 15 | 117 | 112 |
50 | Carson Palmer | 2006 | 27 | 1-Jan | D | CIN | 16 | 117 | 100 |
51 | Chad Pennington | 2008 | 32 | 18-Jan | FA | MIA | 16 | 117 | 108 |
52 | Tony Romo | 2009 | 29 | FA | DAL | 16 | 117 | 101 | |
53 | Kurt Warner | 2008 | 37 | FA | ARI | 16 | 117 | 113 | |
54 | Drew Brees | 2008 | 29 | Feb-32 | FA | NOR | 16 | 116 | 128 |
55 | Marc Bulger | 2006 | 29 | 6-168 | D | STL | 16 | 116 | 92 |
56 | Steve McNair | 2001 | 28 | 3-Jan | D | TEN | 15 | 116 | 93 |
57 | Tom Brady | 2009 | 32 | 6-199 | D | NWE | 16 | 115 | 125 |
58 | Tom Brady | 2004 | 27 | 6-199 | D | NWE | 16 | 115 | 110 |
59 | Brett Favre | 2004 | 35 | Feb-33 | T | GNB | 16 | 115 | 131 |
60 | Trent Green | 2003 | 33 | 8-222 | T | KAN | 16 | 115 | 118 |
61 | Peyton Manning | 2002 | 26 | 1-Jan | D | IND | 16 | 115 | 119 |
62 | Philip Rivers | 2006 | 25 | 4-Jan | T | SDG | 16 | 115 | 106 |
63 | Tom Brady | 2005 | 28 | 6-199 | D | NWE | 16 | 114 | 113 |
64 | Peyton Manning | 2008 | 32 | 1-Jan | D | IND | 16 | 114 | 125 |
65 | Jake Plummer | 2003 | 29 | Feb-42 | FA | DEN | 11 | 114 | 113 |
66 | Brett Favre | 2003 | 34 | Feb-33 | T | GNB | 16 | 113 | 117 |
67 | Matt Hasselbeck | 2007 | 32 | 6-187 | T | SEA | 16 | 113 | 104 |
68 | Matt Hasselbeck | 2002 | 27 | 6-187 | T | SEA | 10 | 113 | 104 |
69 | Chad Pennington | 2004 | 28 | 18-Jan | D | NYJ | 13 | 113 | 114 |
70 | Aaron Rodgers | 2008 | 25 | 24-Jan | D | GNB | 16 | 113 | 100 |
71 | Eli Manning | 2009 | 28 | 1-Jan | T | NYG | 16 | 112 | 103 |
72 | Jake Plummer | 2005 | 31 | Feb-42 | FA | DEN | 16 | 112 | 113 |
73 | Matt Schaub | 2008 | 27 | Mar-90 | T | HOU | 11 | 112 | 102 |
74 | Kurt Warner | 2009 | 38 | FA | ARI | 15 | 112 | 112 | |
75 | Tom Brady | 2001 | 24 | 6-199 | D | NWE | 14 | 111 | 86 |
76 | Aaron Brooks | 2003 | 27 | 4-131 | D | NOR | 16 | 111 | 102 |
77 | Trent Green | 2005 | 35 | 8-222 | T | KAN | 16 | 111 | 105 |
78 | Matt Hasselbeck | 2003 | 28 | 6-187 | T | SEA | 16 | 111 | 92 |
79 | Donovan McNabb | 2007 | 31 | 2-Jan | D | PHI | 14 | 111 | 85 |
80 | Donovan McNabb | 2009 | 33 | 2-Jan | D | PHI | 14 | 111 | 90 |
81 | Kurt Warner | 2007 | 36 | FA | ARI | 11 | 111 | 112 | |
82 | Drew Bledsoe | 2002 | 30 | 1-Jan | FA | BUF | 16 | 110 | 89 |
83 | Tom Brady | 2002 | 25 | 6-199 | D | NWE | 16 | 110 | 111 |
84 | Drew Brees | 2007 | 28 | Feb-32 | FA | NOR | 16 | 110 | 124 |
85 | Drew Brees | 2005 | 26 | Feb-32 | D | SDG | 16 | 110 | 110 |
86 | Mark Brunell | 2002 | 32 | 5-118 | T | JAX | 15 | 110 | 92 |
87 | Brett Favre | 2002 | 33 | Feb-33 | T | GNB | 16 | 110 | 113 |
88 | Jeff Garcia | 2002 | 32 | FA | SFO | 16 | 110 | 123 | |
89 | Brian Griese | 2002 | 27 | Mar-91 | D | DEN | 13 | 110 | 95 |
90 | Byron Leftwich | 2005 | 25 | 7-Jan | D | JAX | 11 | 110 | 98 |
91 | Donovan McNabb | 2002 | 26 | 2-Jan | D | PHI | 10 | 110 | 95 |
92 | Tony Romo | 2008 | 28 | FA | DAL | 13 | 110 | 112 | |
93 | Tom Brady | 2006 | 29 | 6-199 | D | NWE | 16 | 109 | 110 |
94 | Kerry Collins | 2002 | 30 | 5-Jan | FA | NYG | 16 | 109 | 115 |
95 | Jake Delhomme | 2004 | 29 | FA | CAR | 16 | 109 | 105 | |
96 | Jake Delhomme | 2005 | 30 | FA | CAR | 16 | 109 | 104 | |
97 | Jay Fiedler | 2002 | 31 | FA | MIA | 10 | 109 | 115 | |
98 | Jeff Garcia | 2008 | 38 | FA | TAM | 11 | 109 | 102 | |
99 | Jon Kitna | 2003 | 31 | FA | CIN | 16 | 109 | 99 | |
100 | Tommy Maddox | 2002 | 31 | 25-Jan | FA | PIT | 11 | 109 | 100 |
101 | Mark Brunell | 2000 | 30 | 5-118 | T | JAX | 16 | 108 | 84 |
102 | Matt Cassel | 2008 | 26 | 7-230 | D | NWE | 15 | 108 | 83 |
103 | Jay Cutler | 2007 | 24 | 11-Jan | D | DEN | 16 | 108 | 104 |
104 | Donovan McNabb | 2001 | 25 | 2-Jan | D | PHI | 16 | 108 | 96 |
105 | Jeff Blake | 2000 | 30 | 6-166 | FA | NOR | 11 | 107 | 97 |
106 | Tom Brady | 2003 | 26 | 6-199 | D | NWE | 16 | 107 | 105 |
107 | Mark Brunell | 2001 | 31 | 5-118 | T | JAX | 15 | 107 | 75 |
108 | Chris Chandler | 2001 | 36 | Mar-76 | FA | ATL | 14 | 107 | 79 |
109 | Kerry Collins | 2000 | 28 | 5-Jan | FA | NYG | 16 | 107 | 112 |
110 | Peyton Manning | 2001 | 25 | 1-Jan | D | IND | 16 | 107 | 110 |
111 | Steve McNair | 2000 | 27 | 3-Jan | D | TEN | 15 | 107 | 108 |
112 | Steve McNair | 2002 | 29 | 3-Jan | D | TEN | 16 | 107 | 116 |
113 | Matt Schaub | 2007 | 26 | Mar-90 | T | HOU | 11 | 107 | 106 |
114 | Mark Brunell | 2005 | 35 | 5-118 | FA | WAS | 15 | 106 | 107 |
115 | Daunte Culpepper | 2001 | 24 | 11-Jan | D | MIN | 11 | 106 | 91 |
116 | Joe Flacco | 2009 | 24 | 18-Jan | D | BAL | 16 | 106 | 94 |
117 | Rob Johnson | 2000 | 27 | Apr-99 | FA | BUF | 11 | 106 | 57 |
118 | Carson Palmer | 2007 | 28 | 1-Jan | D | CIN | 16 | 106 | 121 |
119 | Matt Ryan | 2008 | 23 | 3-Jan | D | ATL | 16 | 106 | 116 |
120 | Kurt Warner | 2005 | 34 | FA | ARI | 10 | 106 | 106 |
41 different quarterbacks produced these 120 single seasons. 41 single seasons were at least 20% better than the average passer rating in those respective years, and the other 79 were 6-19% better than average.
Overall:
41 QBs produced these 120 seasons.
56 were by QBs drafted by that team; 40 were by free agents; 24 were by trade acquisitions.
51 were at least 30 years old; 51 were 26-29 years old; only 18 were 25 or younger.
48 were first round picks, a minority.
30 played on teams that allowed more sacks than the average team (sack% index < 100).
Of the top 41:
21 QBs produced these top 41 seasons.
21 were by first round picks; 15 were by later picks; 5 were by undrafted free agents.
17 were at least 30 years old; 17 were 26-29; 7 were by QBs 25 and under.
8 played on teams that allowed more sacks than the average team.
Of the lower 79 (42nd-120th):
27 were by first round picks.
34 were at least 30 years old; 34 were 26-29; 11 were by QBs 25 and younger.
22 played on teams that had a below average sack index.
By these numbers (and not even exploring the bust rate of first round QBs), it is clear that the safer way to solve the Vikings' QB void is to acquire an existing NFL QB, either by free agency or via trade. A majority (53%) of the top 120 were produced by a free agent or trade acquisition. First round picks produced a minority of the top 120 QB seasons in the past 10 years. Most telling, the veteran age groups produced the most, not some tenderfoot rookie. The actual performance of the QB matters more than how the QB is acquired or hyped by the media, and good to excellent QBs are more likely to be found via trade and/or free agency. Of course, we can also look at this list with some sadness as Vikings fans and see that we did have a very remarkable franchise QB not too long ago who might still be dominating today had he gotten some protection from his line and no championship or SB appearance to show for it.
Of course, there is no reason not to sign or trade for a veteran and also draft another QB. That makes the most sense of all.
I know some are going to wonder about Super Bowl championships. A good quarterback is only part of a Super Bowl championship. Few would argue that Ben Roethlisberger is a franchise QB, but one of the Steelers' championships actually happened during his worst year so far. Eli Manning has one season in the top 120, but it is not from his SB championship year. Kurt Warner's championship was in 1999, just before the cutoff, and Favre's was in 1997, or else they would make the short list also. Compared to an all things being equal scenario in the NFL (1 would win out of 32 exactly equal teams, or about 3%, or about a 6% chance of competing in a SB), having a QB performing at these levels greatly increases the odds of getting there to at least 10%.
May this Christmas day post bring you wisdom and peace, especially about the Vikings' QB quandary.