What the top 120 QB performances of the past 10 years tell us about the Vikings' QB situation

by KC Viking on Dec 25, 2010 12:15 PM CST

Based on the top 120 single season performances by passer rating index (a.k.a. RATE+), the Vikings should not worry too much about drafting a quarterback in the first round.

Here are the top 120 seasons by NFL quarterbacks in terms of passer rating index (120 = 20% better than the average QB's passer rating that year; 115 = 15% better than the average QB's passer rating that year, and so on) from 2000 to 2009:

Rk 5	Player	Year	Age	Draft	How acq	Tm	GS	Rate+	Sack%+
1	Peyton Manning	2004	28	1-Jan	D	IND	16	151	128
2	Tom Brady	2007	30	6-199	D	NWE	16	148	117
3	Daunte Culpepper	2004	27	11-Jan	D	MIN	16	138	92
4	Chad Pennington	2002	26	18-Jan	D	NYJ	12	138	108
5	Brian Griese	2000	25	Mar-91	D	DEN	10	135	113
6	Drew Brees	2009	30	Feb-32	FA	NOR	15	132	117
7	Kurt Warner	2001	30		FA	STL	16	132	101
8	Drew Brees	2004	25	Feb-32	D	SDG	15	131	116
9	Donovan McNabb	2004	28	2-Jan	D	PHI	15	131	101
10	Ben Roethlisberger	2007	25	11-Jan	D	PIT	15	130	73
11	Brett Favre	2009	40	Feb-33	FA	MIN	16	129	100
12	Peyton Manning	2005	29	1-Jan	D	IND	16	129	120
13	Daunte Culpepper	2000	23	11-Jan	D	MIN	16	128	102
14	Rich Gannon	2002	37	Apr-98	FA	OAK	16	128	107
15	David Garrard	2007	29	4-108	D	JAX	12	128	101
16	Kurt Warner	2000	29		FA	STL	11	128	109
17	Jeff Garcia	2000	30		FA	SFO	16	127	118
18	Philip Rivers	2008	27	4-Jan	T	SDG	16	127	107
19	Peyton Manning	2006	30	1-Jan	D	IND	16	126	125
20	Steve McNair	2003	30	3-Jan	D	TEN	14	126	113
21	Carson Palmer	2005	26	1-Jan	D	CIN	16	125	120
22	Philip Rivers	2009	28	4-Jan	T	SDG	16	125	108
23	Rich Gannon	2001	36	Apr-98	FA	OAK	16	124	112
24	Peyton Manning	2003	27	1-Jan	D	IND	16	124	122
25	Aaron Rodgers	2009	26	24-Jan	D	GNB	16	124	81
26	Jeff Garcia	2001	31		FA	SFO	16	123	111
27	Peyton Manning	2000	24	1-Jan	D	IND	16	123	122
28	Brett Favre	2001	32	Feb-33	T	GNB	16	122	116
29	Matt Hasselbeck	2005	30	6-187	T	SEA	16	122	110
30	Peyton Manning	2007	31	1-Jan	D	IND	16	122	114
31	Ben Roethlisberger	2004	22	11-Jan	D	PIT	13	122	81
32	Ben Roethlisberger	2005	23	11-Jan	D	PIT	12	122	92
33	Brian Griese	2004	29	Mar-91	FA	TAM	10	121	96
34	Brad Johnson	2002	34	9-227	FA	TAM	13	121	114
35	Ben Roethlisberger	2009	27	11-Jan	D	PIT	15	121	77
36	Tony Romo	2007	27		FA	DAL	16	121	111
37	Drew Brees	2006	27	Feb-32	FA	NOR	16	120	121
38	Daunte Culpepper	2003	26	11-Jan	D	MIN	14	120	93
39	Rich Gannon	2000	35	Apr-98	FA	OAK	16	120	108
40	Trent Green	2002	32	8-222	T	KAN	16	120	108
41	Peyton Manning	2009	33	1-Jan	D	IND	16	120	133
42	Brett Favre	2007	38	Feb-33	T	GNB	16	119	122
43	Trent Green	2004	34	8-222	T	KAN	16	119	108
44	Donovan McNabb	2006	30	2-Jan	D	PHI	10	119	101
45	Tony Romo	2006	26		FA	DAL	10	119	104
46	Matt Schaub	2009	28	Mar-90	T	HOU	16	118	114
47	Marc Bulger	2004	27	6-168	D	STL	14	117	91
48	Jeff Garcia	2007	37		FA	TAM	13	117	104
49	Elvis Grbac	2000	30	8-219	T	KAN	15	117	112
50	Carson Palmer	2006	27	1-Jan	D	CIN	16	117	100
51	Chad Pennington	2008	32	18-Jan	FA	MIA	16	117	108
52	Tony Romo	2009	29		FA	DAL	16	117	101
53	Kurt Warner	2008	37		FA	ARI	16	117	113
54	Drew Brees	2008	29	Feb-32	FA	NOR	16	116	128
55	Marc Bulger	2006	29	6-168	D	STL	16	116	92
56	Steve McNair	2001	28	3-Jan	D	TEN	15	116	93
57	Tom Brady	2009	32	6-199	D	NWE	16	115	125
58	Tom Brady	2004	27	6-199	D	NWE	16	115	110
59	Brett Favre	2004	35	Feb-33	T	GNB	16	115	131
60	Trent Green	2003	33	8-222	T	KAN	16	115	118
61	Peyton Manning	2002	26	1-Jan	D	IND	16	115	119
62	Philip Rivers	2006	25	4-Jan	T	SDG	16	115	106
63	Tom Brady	2005	28	6-199	D	NWE	16	114	113
64	Peyton Manning	2008	32	1-Jan	D	IND	16	114	125
65	Jake Plummer	2003	29	Feb-42	FA	DEN	11	114	113
66	Brett Favre	2003	34	Feb-33	T	GNB	16	113	117
67	Matt Hasselbeck	2007	32	6-187	T	SEA	16	113	104
68	Matt Hasselbeck	2002	27	6-187	T	SEA	10	113	104
69	Chad Pennington	2004	28	18-Jan	D	NYJ	13	113	114
70	Aaron Rodgers	2008	25	24-Jan	D	GNB	16	113	100
71	Eli Manning	2009	28	1-Jan	T	NYG	16	112	103
72	Jake Plummer	2005	31	Feb-42	FA	DEN	16	112	113
73	Matt Schaub	2008	27	Mar-90	T	HOU	11	112	102
74	Kurt Warner	2009	38		FA	ARI	15	112	112
75	Tom Brady	2001	24	6-199	D	NWE	14	111	86
76	Aaron Brooks	2003	27	4-131	D	NOR	16	111	102
77	Trent Green	2005	35	8-222	T	KAN	16	111	105
78	Matt Hasselbeck	2003	28	6-187	T	SEA	16	111	92
79	Donovan McNabb	2007	31	2-Jan	D	PHI	14	111	85
80	Donovan McNabb	2009	33	2-Jan	D	PHI	14	111	90
81	Kurt Warner	2007	36		FA	ARI	11	111	112
82	Drew Bledsoe	2002	30	1-Jan	FA	BUF	16	110	89
83	Tom Brady	2002	25	6-199	D	NWE	16	110	111
84	Drew Brees	2007	28	Feb-32	FA	NOR	16	110	124
85	Drew Brees	2005	26	Feb-32	D	SDG	16	110	110
86	Mark Brunell	2002	32	5-118	T	JAX	15	110	92
87	Brett Favre	2002	33	Feb-33	T	GNB	16	110	113
88	Jeff Garcia	2002	32		FA	SFO	16	110	123
89	Brian Griese	2002	27	Mar-91	D	DEN	13	110	95
90	Byron Leftwich	2005	25	7-Jan	D	JAX	11	110	98
91	Donovan McNabb	2002	26	2-Jan	D	PHI	10	110	95
92	Tony Romo	2008	28		FA	DAL	13	110	112
93	Tom Brady	2006	29	6-199	D	NWE	16	109	110
94	Kerry Collins	2002	30	5-Jan	FA	NYG	16	109	115
95	Jake Delhomme	2004	29		FA	CAR	16	109	105
96	Jake Delhomme	2005	30		FA	CAR	16	109	104
97	Jay Fiedler	2002	31		FA	MIA	10	109	115
98	Jeff Garcia	2008	38		FA	TAM	11	109	102
99	Jon Kitna	2003	31		FA	CIN	16	109	99
100	Tommy Maddox	2002	31	25-Jan	FA	PIT	11	109	100
101	Mark Brunell	2000	30	5-118	T	JAX	16	108	84
102	Matt Cassel	2008	26	7-230	D	NWE	15	108	83
103	Jay Cutler	2007	24	11-Jan	D	DEN	16	108	104
104	Donovan McNabb	2001	25	2-Jan	D	PHI	16	108	96
105	Jeff Blake	2000	30	6-166	FA	NOR	11	107	97
106	Tom Brady	2003	26	6-199	D	NWE	16	107	105
107	Mark Brunell	2001	31	5-118	T	JAX	15	107	75
108	Chris Chandler	2001	36	Mar-76	FA	ATL	14	107	79
109	Kerry Collins	2000	28	5-Jan	FA	NYG	16	107	112
110	Peyton Manning	2001	25	1-Jan	D	IND	16	107	110
111	Steve McNair	2000	27	3-Jan	D	TEN	15	107	108
112	Steve McNair	2002	29	3-Jan	D	TEN	16	107	116
113	Matt Schaub	2007	26	Mar-90	T	HOU	11	107	106
114	Mark Brunell	2005	35	5-118	FA	WAS	15	106	107
115	Daunte Culpepper	2001	24	11-Jan	D	MIN	11	106	91
116	Joe Flacco	2009	24	18-Jan	D	BAL	16	106	94
117	Rob Johnson	2000	27	Apr-99	FA	BUF	11	106	57
118	Carson Palmer	2007	28	1-Jan	D	CIN	16	106	121
119	Matt Ryan	2008	23	3-Jan	D	ATL	16	106	116
120	Kurt Warner	2005	34		FA	ARI	10	106	106

41 different quarterbacks produced these 120 single seasons. 41 single seasons were at least 20% better than the average passer rating in those respective years, and the other 79 were 6-19% better than average.

Overall:
41 QBs produced these 120 seasons.
56 were by QBs drafted by that team; 40 were by free agents; 24 were by trade acquisitions.
51 were at least 30 years old; 51 were 26-29 years old; only 18 were 25 or younger.
48 were first round picks, a minority.
30 played on teams that allowed more sacks than the average team (sack% index < 100).

Of the top 41:
21 QBs produced these top 41 seasons.
21 were by first round picks; 15 were by later picks; 5 were by undrafted free agents.
17 were at least 30 years old; 17 were 26-29; 7 were by QBs 25 and under.
8 played on teams that allowed more sacks than the average team.

Of the lower 79 (42nd-120th):
27 were by first round picks.
34 were at least 30 years old; 34 were 26-29; 11 were by QBs 25 and younger.
22 played on teams that had a below average sack index.

By these numbers (and not even exploring the bust rate of first round QBs), it is clear that the safer way to solve the Vikings' QB void is to acquire an existing NFL QB, either by free agency or via trade. A majority (53%) of the top 120 were produced by a free agent or trade acquisition. First round picks produced a minority of the top 120 QB seasons in the past 10 years. Most telling, the veteran age groups produced the most, not some tenderfoot rookie. The actual performance of the QB matters more than how the QB is acquired or hyped by the media, and good to excellent QBs are more likely to be found via trade and/or free agency. Of course, we can also look at this list with some sadness as Vikings fans and see that we did have a very remarkable franchise QB not too long ago who might still be dominating today had he gotten some protection from his line and no championship or SB appearance to show for it.

Of course, there is no reason not to sign or trade for a veteran and also draft another QB. That makes the most sense of all.

I know some are going to wonder about Super Bowl championships. A good quarterback is only part of a Super Bowl championship. Few would argue that Ben Roethlisberger is a franchise QB, but one of the Steelers' championships actually happened during his worst year so far. Eli Manning has one season in the top 120, but it is not from his SB championship year. Kurt Warner's championship was in 1999, just before the cutoff, and Favre's was in 1997, or else they would make the short list also. Compared to an all things being equal scenario in the NFL (1 would win out of 32 exactly equal teams, or about 3%, or about a 6% chance of competing in a SB), having a QB performing at these levels greatly increases the odds of getting there to at least 10%.

May this Christmas day post bring you wisdom and peace, especially about the Vikings' QB quandary.

Poll

What will Santa bring the Vikings in the offseason?

A well-hyped franchise QB

19 votes

A pair of sensible veteran QBs

3 votes

Trade winds for more wins

1 votes

A vet and a later round bet

14 votes

A lump of coal

16 votes

53 votes | Poll has closed

This FanPost was created by a registered user of The Daily Norseman, and does not necessarily reflect the views of the staff of the site. However, since this is a community, that view is no less important.

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Comments

There is a little problem with your stats.

You did a nice job gathering the stats. I appreciate all your work. But I have an issue with how you use your stats.
In the first place passer rating is not a QB rating. It is what is says. A passer rating. Getting a franchise QB is not the same as getting a good passer. Tony Romo is an excellent example. He is a great passer. But is he a Franchise QB? Can he lead a team to victory?

In the second place here is why the stats are screwed.

Out of 120 best QB passer ratings in history 54 of them have been accomplished by QBs selected in the first round or one of the top 2 QBs taken ,if not in the first round ( 19 different QBs). 60% of all franchise Qbs fall into this draft distinction and your stats seem to bear this out.

Another 19 of those 120 performances were done by three QBs that did not meet those draft requirements. Brett Farve, who was drafted 2nd choice in the 2nd round and Tom Brady, the 6th round phenomenon, and Kurt Warner, an undrafted guy.

So, 73 performances out of 120 were completed by top draft choices, one 6th rounder and one undrafted FA. This means that in the last 10 years if you had not drafted a top prospect, happened to luck into Brady, or given Warner a chance, then your chances of getting a good passer are slim. Out of the remaining 105 QBs drafted plus all the undrafted free agents available you can only put together 47 good passing performances.

Great QBs are rare. Good passers are not so rare. If you want an honest opportunity for a great QB then you have to take them high. Because they are evaluated as having high upside potential. Its like buying a car. You have the chances of getting a more reliable one at the BMW dealership than the local Kia dealership.

IT IS TIME TO DO WHAT IT TAKES TO DRAFT A FRANCHISE QUARTERBACK.
No more old guys. No more excuses. No more passing up our own great drafted quarterback.

by lifelongvike on Dec 28, 2010 9:09 AM CST reply actions 1 recs

Lifelong is right the numbers are scewed.

Favre, Brady & Warner were diamonds in the ruff. The odds of getting one of those guys through the draft are slim indeed. Of course there will always be some top guys that bust & some middle & late round guys that end up be great QB’s but picking a QB in the top ten picks is the much safer bet. The QB is single most important player on the field. If he’s a stud you can build around him. If he’s a dud all the A.P.‘s & Percy Harvin’s & Sidney Rices won’t get you to the promise land. Lets pick a stud & use our other picks & free agency to put a O’line in front of him.

by iowaron on Dec 28, 2010 11:27 AM CST reply actions