FanPost

Statistical trends which probably weren't helped by trading up for a RB

I was pleased to see that the Vikings considered CB enough of an area of need to draft one with their first pick, but of course they let the guy with the best man-to-man skills go in the process.  In the meantime, teams with great pass defenses like the Jets had gobbled up the last really good CBs on the board.  I was sure that the Vikings were going to shore up the position with 2 CBs and the future with a QB like Tony Pike, but that didn't happen, either.

Here are some trends during the Childress era worth thinking about:

Passer rating allowed rank:
2006: 5th
2007: 23rd
2008: 16th
2009: 27th

Defensive turnovers rank:
2006: 3rd
2007: 9th
2008: 15th
2009: 23rd

Passing yards allowed:
2006: 31st
2007: 32nd
2008: 18th
2009: 19th

Playoff games:
2006: none
2007: none
2008: 0-1
2009: 1-1
total: 1-2 (roughly equivalent to 5-11)

The truth is that the team hasn’t had anything resembling an all-around good to great D since Mike Tomlin was employed (except for yards allowed, which we'll look at more closely soon).  A better D vs. the pass in the past 2 years could have meant a winning record in the playoffs, including a SB win.

How much do those trends matter?  How does passer rating allowed matter compared to defensive turnovers or passing yards?  Let's look at the last 2 years of playoff games.

Game Better PR More DTO More PY
09 SB 1 1 0
09 NFCCG 1 1 0
09 AFCCG 1 0 1
09 Div INDvsBAL 1 1 1
09 Div NYJvsSD 0 1 0
09 Div NOvsARI 1 1 1
09 Div MINvsDAL 1 1 1
09 WC BALvsNE 0 1 0
09 WC NYJvsCIN 1 1 1
09 WC DALvsPHI 1 1 1
09 WC ARIvsGB 1 1 0
09 RESULTS 81.82% 90.91% 54.55%
08 SB 0 1 0
08 AFCCG 1 1 1
08 NFCCG 1 1 0
08 Div ARIvsCAR 1 1 1
08 Div PHIvsNYG 1 1 1
08 Div PITvsSD 0 1 0
08 Div BALvsTEN 1 1 0
08 WC BALvsMIA 1 1 0
08 WC MINvsPHI 1 n 1
08 WC ARIvsATL 1 1 1
08 WC INDvsSD 0 0 0
08 RESULTS 72.73% 90.00% 45.45%
COMBINED 77.27% 90.45% 50.00%

In the last 22 playoff games, defensive turnovers were the best predictors of the victors while the better rated passer won a little more than 3/4 of the time.  The team with the most passing yards won only half the time which is to say that passing yardage is completely irrelevant.

Chris Cook had better be good.  Not just better than Cedric Griffin good, but really, really good.

This FanPost was created by a registered user of The Daily Norseman, and does not necessarily reflect the views of the staff of the site. However, since this is a <em>community</em>, that view is no less important.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join Daily Norseman

You must be a member of Daily Norseman to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Daily Norseman. You should read them.

Join Daily Norseman

You must be a member of Daily Norseman to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Daily Norseman. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9341_tracker