How Much Drop Off Was There From E.J. Henderson to Jasper Brinkley?
by Christopher Gates on Jun 20, 2010 8:44 AM CDT
in Minnesota Vikings
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E.J. Henderson has been one of our favorite Vikings here at DN since the early days of the site, and when he suffered his broken femur last season against Arizona, we hoped for the best while fearing the worst. Many thought that his career as a Minnesota Viking had come to a premature end. However, he's been going through drills at the mini-camp practices in recent days, and is optimistic about being back for the season opener on 9 September against New Orleans.
When Henderson went down last year, in stepped Jasper Brinkley, a fifth-round selection out of South Carolina in the 2009 draft. Many thought that the team was crazy to plug someone so untested into one of the defense's most important positions in the middle of a playoff chase, but the Vikings really didn't have many other options at that point. Today we're going to take a look at exactly how big a difference the switch at middle linebacker made, and what the Vikings might have in store in the likely event that E.J. Henderson is not ready to start the season in the middle of this defense.
E.J. Henderson started twelve games at MLB for the Vikings in 2009. Jasper Brinkley started six, including the Vikings' two post-season games. Here's a breakdown of how the Vikings fared in those games:
| Henderson starting | Brinkley Starting | |
| Record | 10-2 | 3-3 |
| Rush Yards Allowed/Game | 84.3 | 90.5 |
| Pass Yards Allowed/Game | 227.2 | 185.5 |
| Total Yards Allowed/Game | 311.5 | 276 |
| Points Allowed/Game | 19.4 |
18.8 |
The points/game stat, obviously the most important one, is relatively similar regardless of who's starting at linebacker, and so are the rush yards allowed/game. As long as Pat Williams and Kevin Williams are in the middle of the Minnesota defense, this team is going to stop the run regardless of who's back there at middle linebacker. But the pass yards allowed/game stat is interesting to me. Yes, the Vikings played some teams that weren't exactly proficient at throwing the ball when Brinkley was the starter, but that's somewhat balanced out by the fact that the Vikings' two playoff games with Brinkley in the middle of the defense.
Those games came against the Dallas Cowboys, who had the sixth most prolific passing offense in the NFL in 2009, averaging 267.9 yards/game, and the New Orleans Saints, who ranked fourth at 272.2 yards/game. In those two playoff games, the Vikings held Tony Romo and the Cowboys to 156 passing yards, and held Drew Brees and the Saints to 189, both significantly lower than their season averages. Now, I haven't broken down how much time the Vikings spent in the nickel or dime packages in either of those games, but it sort of appears to me that the more time Jasper Brinkley spent in the middle of the Vikings defense, the more comfortable he got, and the better Minnesota's defense got against the pass as a result.
Don't get me wrong. . .I still love me some E.J. Henderson and everything, and would love to see him back in the middle of the Minnesota defense in 2010 after coming back from one of the more gruesome injuries I've been witness to. But if he does come back, he a) might not be at full speed or be the same E.J., and b) is going to be 30 years old and might be starting to slow down regardless.
Fortunately, it looks like we may have a pretty good replacement for him in-house already in the person of Jasper Brinkley. If the Vikings are preparing for Brinkley to start the season at MLB for them, he should already be comfortable enough with the defense to be able to go all-out from the beginning of the year, and we won't see any drop off from the Vikings' defense we saw for much of 2009.
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Interesting
While like you, still hope to see E.J. back to form, there is that possibility he may not be ready by season’s start, or worse, never get back to form ever. I hope that is never the case. But regardless what happens, I think we may have a bright future, or possibly present if the kid has to take over now. For a rookie, those were fairly good numbers, especially on the passing side. Granted, it was the whole D that was stepping up, but don’t think anyone can say that putting Jasper in there hurt us one bit!
"Over? Did you say over? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!" "Germans?" "Forget it, he's rolling."
Good Stats
I remember that they were pulling Jasper out during the 3rd and long passing downs. With another year under his belt however he might be the long term replacement for Henderson. Unfortunatly we have lost E.J. the last two years, so it will be hard to tell if he will ever be back to his rare form. I’m going to throw something out there Farwell/ Henderson special teamsthey could be beasts, especially if there are fewer returns if Rhys is putting it out the back of the endzone. How crazy am I?
Two things the stats don't reveal
Most analysts who’ve bothered to comment on Brinkley’s performance (including some team officials talking to the local reporters) said he looked solid vs. the run, but needed to work on his pass coverage skills to get up to speed. The stats suggest the opposite, as the run yardage surrendered went up with Brinkley in, while the pass yardage decreased. That highlights the next point – the need to account for the difference in strength of schedule played by Henderson compared to who Brinkley faced. Perhaps there’s not enough information to make a fair comparison until Brinkley has several more starts under his belt, something I’m betting he’ll get this year. I’ll say this much about him — I don’t he could be called disappointing by any stretch coming in as a 5th round rookie starter. I don’t remember Henderson looking any better in his first starting appearances. The fact that the entire defense didn’t collapse when he came in was impressive enough, and I’m sure he’s been doing plenty of film study over the offseason.
Good point
To that, here are the teams we played with Henderson as the starter vs. the teams we played with Brinkley as the starter:
Henderson
Cleveland (5-11) – #8 rushing offense, #32 passing offense
Detroit (2-14) – #24 rushing, #21 passing
San Francisco (8-8) – #25 rushing, #22 passing
Green Bay (11-5) – #14 rushing, #7 passing
St. Louis (1-15) – #20 rushing, #26 passing
Baltimore (9-7) – #5 rushing, #18 passing
Pittsburgh (8-8) – #19 rushing, #9 passing
Green Bay (11-5) – #14 rushing, #7 passing
Detroit (2-14) – #24 rushing, #21 passing
Seattle (5-11) – #16 rushing, #25 passing
Chicago (7-9) – #29 rushing, #17 passing
Arizona (10-6) – #28 rushing, #12 passing
Brinkley
Cincinnati (10-6) – #9 rushing, #26 passing
Carolina (8-8) – #3 rushing, #27 passing
Chicago (7-9) – @29 rushing, #17 passing
New York Giants (8-8) – #17 rushing, #11 passing
Dallas (11-5) – #7 rushing, #6 passing
New Orleans (13-3) – #6 rushing, #4 passing
So against, arguably, the two best and most well-balanced offenses we saw in 2009-10 (Dallas and New Orleans), we started Brinkley at MLB, and held those offenses significantly below their yardage averages for the season. . .and we know the only reason the Saints managed as many points as they did is because they constantly got short fields. . .their offense did squat when they had to drive a significant distance.
Makes it that much more frustrating to know that we started a fifth-round rookie at MLB for the last six games of the season and were STILL the best team in the National Football League.
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by Christopher Gates on Jun 20, 2010 2:48 PM CDT up reply actions
nice stat breakdown. another question comes to mind to throw in the mix.
antoine winfield was injured and out of commision for the last 7 games that henderson played last year (baltimore thru arizona games). then, the same week that brinkley started (against cincinati), we got winfield back into the line-up.so, we did have more d-backs to work with once e.j. went down.
i was impressed with how well brinkley seemed to handle it, though. and he’s huge @ 275 lb.
in the future there will be no war...there will only be rollerball.
Jasper
Improved steadily in the 6 games he started. EJ is a tackling machine and I’m not sure if JB is as fast, being 30lbs heavier then EJ. The Vikes are set at MLB anyway. JB looks like a hell of a 5th round pick.
Favre's ankle, Starcaps BS and hopefully a busy Piston offseason, oh my. Go Netherlands/Holland/Dutch Soccer(no its not Football)! Also, Lesnar, Lesnar, Lesnar!!!!!!!
Winfield
The pass defense improved while Brinkley was in the starting lineup because that’s when Winfield returned to duty. The worse rushing yards allowed is a better measuring stick for comparing Henderson to Brinkley, and it tells us two things, in my opinion: 1) the VIkings’ front 7 is so saturated with quality defenders against the run that one or more of them could/should be replaced with a more balanced or coverage LB without losing much in the overall effectiveness of the D; 2) a small improvement in the pass defense impacts points allowed.
I remember him mostly for trying to tackle (Pierre Thomas or Reggie Bush?) in the NFCCG, resulting in a TD.
by KC Viking on Jun 20, 2010 3:28 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
woops, didn't see this when i posted above....but yea, lucky we got winfield back when we did.
in the future there will be no war...there will only be rollerball.
How did Brinkley's stats
line up with EJ? It seems this post is missing their individual stats.
EJ is a tackling machine, I agree, but I’ve not seen a lot of big plays.. forced fumbles, INTs, etc., out of either of those guys.
I think they are both good middle linebackers, but not elite. Maybe EJ would if he could stay healthy, and maybe Brinkley if he gets some more reps back there.
But I agree, it was reassuring to see Brinkley could step in and do the job well right away. Looks like a very promising kid.
by HammeroftheGods on Jun 20, 2010 9:09 PM CDT reply actions
EJ....
EJ in my opinion was just getting back up to speed when he got hurt, Brinkley got valuable experience in big time games wasn’t a liabilty!! I personally thought he was getting better as each game came and went, he has to be confident after the way he and the rest of the D. Played against the Saints and Cowboys.. I’m a huge fan of EJ, would love to see him back, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he nor Ced played at all this year….
Cautious Optimism
EJ Henderson has been one of my favorite Vikings for a while now, and it was great watching him improve year by year. In 2007 he had a monster year and we were wondering why he wasn’t in the Pro Bowl. He looked to be one of the NFL’s up and coming elite MLBs, getting lots of respect from opponents and the press.
Then in 2008 he got injured and went off-line to heal up. Worrisome, but we had reason to hope for a full recovery. In 2009 he came back and was a decent MLB. Not stellar, clearly off his original trajectory, but a good MLB nonetheless. I hoped he would get it back together and once again become the fearsome monster in the middle of the Viking’s defensive backfield. Before that could happen, he took that hideous injury in the Cards game.
I’m amazed that he’s recovered as well as he has, to be looking to play in the season opener. No one’s going to be cheering for EJ more than me, but I really have to question whether or not he’s going to be able to return to the fearsome form he had back in 2007. I don’t know if it’s fair to expect it, he’s two years older and healed or not, his body isn’t going to be more durable.
I hope for the best for EJ (and the Vikings, of course :) ), but in trying to be realistic, I’m also very glad we have Brinkley ready to step up, too.
Ah, ah,
We come from the land of the ice and snow,
From the midnight sun where the hot springs blow.
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SKOL!
A pleasant suprize
childress says Jasper is showing obvious improvement during OTA’s . Chilly still feels that there is a fall off when EJ isn’t on the field . I am personally pleased to find a backup LB that can do more than special teams . I was hoping the team would have used their 3rd rd pick on a WLB of the future . This is one of the areas we could upgrade in free agency . Brinkley is a perfect fit in our defense .
Good stat’s Gates . Now we need to find a diamond in the ruff at OLB !!
Perhaps,
EJ may end up taking over Leber’s spot if Brinkley continues to improve. I’m pretty sure EJ started out at OLB before he moved to the middle so if his injuries have caused him to be slightly less effective it would be cool for him to return to that position as he’s still younger and more athletic than Leber. Doubt it happens this year but maybe in the next couple of seasons this move might make sense.
by CanadianViking on Jun 21, 2010 4:30 PM CDT up reply actions
Hmm
One of the few things that we should remember about those late games.. We were missing Pat Williams in the Chicago game late in the season. Even though Chicao had a pourous rushing game, they still were able to pass on us and do reasonably decent. A game we all figured we should have won, or could have won, or was in our favor to win, we lost. I think that particular game probably went against JB’s stats putting a heavier dent in them.
We know our front-four is pretty important with our defensive scheme. With Pat out, we weren’t probably able to rotate the D-line as we normally would. Could this have gassed out our defense? Well with the late offensive battle putting us into over-time, I would of believed so.
That particular game is what made me wonder if Winfield was even really 100% healthy. To get burned by a WR that was from the practice squad would have to be pretty embarassing.
We were also still potentially able to take the #1 seed by winning that game. We would have likely guaranteed a 1st round bye w/ winning that game & the giants. Luckily the giants basically fell over for us, but even that wasn’t a sure bet since we all had to be Dallas fans for a day.
Canadian Viking I think I love you .......
E.J. was designed to be our WLB !!!! I wanted us to consider Kirk Morrison from Oakland . We are so ready to partially convert to a 3-4 when Pat leaves us in 2011 . Willis was a consideration when he came out though I wouldn’t havewanted to change our choice .
We won't convert to a 3-4
when Pat moves on. Not as long as Frazier is the DC. He is a 4-3 kind of guy.
IndyVikeFan
In 2007 EJ was making big plays and became a disruptive force. Coming in off of an injury I didn’t see the same EJ. Now the question is can he regain that level of play after two big injuries and age 30. The window for being a big impact may have closed. He was good in 2009 and so was Jasper. I think the Vikings are betting on Jasper and hoping he can graduate from good to disruptive
Coach E.J. Henderson?
E.J. Henderson was never about the stats in my mind he was (and still is) a defensive field general he see offenses like P Manning sees D-fences. I don’t think he still has what he once had talent wise however……his leadership and knowledge of the game will be hard to replace.
by greenbay packers backer on Jun 24, 2010 3:49 AM CDT reply actions
First we do have a % of 3-4 plays . I’d simply like to see it a little more that is all .
Next , EJ may drop weight as Greenway did to maintain speed and help the rehab process . Less punishing action in the WLB spot . Maybe he can swing out to WLB on 3rd downs a % of the time .
Lastly , we have a comfortable 7of 9 last games and hopefully Pat’s newest elbow surgery has better results than his previous . If we don’t win it all . Brett will be his deciding factor the following year . I wonder if he will be asked to take a pay cut with his decline . I hope he has a monster year . We could always fatten up Everso Griffen ??
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