FanPost

More on QBs and AVs



In my last post, I examined second year quarterbacks' Approximate Values (and explained and linked to other sources about AV).  I had arbitrarily set a standard of 10 AV for a good season.  Was that standard too high?  This post will take a look at which QBs have had 4 or more 10 AV seasons and whether a rookie can do it.

 87 QBs have 4+ 10 AV seasons since 1950.  Here are the top 21:

 

Rk

Player

From

To

Tm

Count

1

Brett Favre

1992

2009

GNB/NYJ/MIN

16

2

John Elway*

1984

1998

DEN

14

3

Dan Marino*

1983

1998

MIA

14

4

Peyton Manning

1998

2009

IND

12

5

Fran Tarkenton*

1964

1978

NYG/MIN

12

6

Johnny Unitas*

1956

1967

BAL

12

7

Warren Moon*

1984

1997

TEN/MIN/SEA

11

8

Norm Van Brocklin*

1950

1960

RAM/PHI

10

9

Drew Bledsoe

1994

2005

NWE/BUF/DAL

9

10

Terry Bradshaw*

1971

1982

PIT

9

11

Jim Kelly*

1986

1995

BUF

9

12

Donovan McNabb

2000

2009

PHI

9

13

Steve McNair

1997

2006

TEN/BAL

9

14

Joe Montana*

1981

1990

SFO

9

15

Ken Anderson

1973

1982

CIN

8

16

Tom Brady

2001

2009

NWE

8

17

Mark Brunell

1996

2005

JAX/WAS

8

18

Dan Fouts*

1976

1985

SDG

8

19

Bob Griese*

1968

1977

MIA

8

20

Roger Staubach*

1971

1979

DAL

8

21

Steve Young*

1991

1998

SFO

8

 

It's tough to argue that the top 5 or so are/were not among the very best of all time, not only in terms of production but also in terms of longevity.  Donovan McNabb is really moving up the list, and it will be interesting to see if the Mike Shanahan Effect graces him with some of the best seasons of his life (especially since he's already so much better than Jake Plummer ever was).

 

Unfortunately, AV data is incomplete for the 1950s, so I’ll work from a list of 82 QBs who have had 4+ seasons of 10+ AV since 1960 (81 excluding Eddie LaBaron since most of his career was in the 1950s):

 

Rk

Player

From

To

Tm

Count

1

Brett Favre

1992

2009

GNB/NYJ/MIN

16

2

John Elway*

1984

1998

DEN

14

3

Dan Marino*

1983

1998

MIA

14

4

Peyton Manning

1998

2009

IND

12

5

Fran Tarkenton*

1964

1978

NYG/MIN

12

6

Warren Moon*

1984

1997

TEN/MIN/SEA

11

7

Drew Bledsoe

1994

2005

NWE/BUF/DAL

9

8

Terry Bradshaw*

1971

1982

PIT

9

9

Jim Kelly*

1986

1995

BUF

9

10

Donovan McNabb

2000

2009

PHI

9

11

Steve McNair

1997

2006

TEN/BAL

9

12

Joe Montana*

1981

1990

SFO

9

13

Ken Anderson

1973

1982

CIN

8

14

Tom Brady

2001

2009

NWE

8

15

Mark Brunell

1996

2005

JAX/WAS

8

16

Dan Fouts*

1976

1985

SDG

8

17

Bob Griese*

1968

1977

MIA

8

18

Roger Staubach*

1971

1979

DAL

8

19

Johnny Unitas*

1960

1967

BAL

8

20

Steve Young*

1991

1998

SFO

8

21

Troy Aikman*

1991

1999

DAL

7

22

Drew Brees

2002

2009

SDG/NOR

7

23

Randall Cunningham

1987

1998

PHI/MIN

7

24

Len Dawson*

1962

1971

KAN

7

25

Boomer Esiason

1985

1993

CIN/NYJ

7

26

Trent Green

1998

2005

WAS/STL/KAN

7

27

Dave Krieg

1984

1992

SEA/KAN

7

28

Phil Simms

1984

1993

NYG

7

29

Ken Stabler

1973

1979

OAK

7

30

Kerry Collins

1996

2005

CAR/NYG/OAK

6

31

Jim Everett

1988

1995

STL/NOR

6

32

Roman Gabriel

1967

1973

RAM/PHI

6

33

John Hadl

1965

1973

SDG/RAM

6

34

Jim Hart

1970

1977

STL

6

35

Ron Jaworski

1977

1983

PHI

6

36

Sonny Jurgensen*

1961

1970

PHI/WAS

6

37

Tommy Kramer

1979

1986

MIN

6

38

Ken O'Brien

1985

1991

NYJ

6

39

Jim Plunkett

1971

1983

NWE/SFO/RAI

6

40

Ben Roethlisberger

2004

2009

PIT

6

41

Brian Sipe

1976

1983

CLE

6

42

Kurt Warner

1999

2009

STL/ARI

6

43

Daunte Culpepper

2000

2004

MIN

5

44

Joe Ferguson

1974

1981

BUF

5

45

Rich Gannon

1991

2002

MIN/OAK

5

46

Steve Grogan

1976

1980

NWE

5

47

Jim Harbaugh

1990

1996

CHI/IND

5

48

Matt Hasselbeck

2002

2007

SEA

5

49

Bobby Hebert

1987

1993

NOR/ATL

5

50

Bert Jones

1975

1981

BAL

5

51

Daryle Lamonica

1967

1972

OAK

5

52

Eli Manning

2005

2009

NYG

5

53

Joe Namath*

1967

1974

NYJ

5

54

Jake Plummer

1998

2005

ARI/DEN

5

55

Bart Starr*

1960

1966

GNB

5

56

Joe Theismann

1979

1984

WAS

5

57

Jim Zorn

1977

1981

SEA

5

58

Steve Bartkowski

1980

1983

ATL

4

59

John Brodie

1961

1971

SFO

4

60

Aaron Brooks

2001

2004

NOR

4

61

Chris Chandler

1992

2001

ARI/ATL

4

62

Steve DeBerg

1979

1991

SFO/TAM/KAN

4

63

Jake Delhomme

2003

2008

CAR

4

64

Jeff Garcia

2000

2003

SFO

4

65

Jeff George

1994

1999

ATL/OAK/MIN

4

66

Brian Griese

1999

2002

DEN

4

67

Brad Johnson

1997

2003

MIN/WAS/TAM

4

68

Jon Kitna

1999

2007

SEA/CIN/DET

4

69

Bernie Kosar

1986

1991

CLE

4

70

Greg Landry

1970

1976

DET

4

71

Neil Lomax

1983

1988

PHO

4

72

Archie Manning

1972

1980

NOR

4

73

Craig Morton

1970

1981

DAL/DEN

4

74

Carson Palmer

2005

2009

CIN

4

75

Chad Pennington

2002

2008

NYJ/MIA

4

76

Philip Rivers

2006

2009

SDG

4

77

Tony Romo

2006

2009

DAL

4

78

Norm Snead

1962

1972

WAS/PHI/NYG

4

79

Vinny Testaverde

1996

2004

BAL/NYJ/DAL

4

80

Richard Todd

1979

1982

NYJ

4

81

Michael Vick

2002

2006

ATL

4

82

Danny White

1980

1983

DAL

4

 

As Vikings fans, we are most curious about Favre (#1 and feeling good about it after letting go of the past), Tarvaris Jackson and Rich Gannon, no?  (Sage hasn't started enough games to make an apples-to-apples comparison.)  So far, Tarvaris Jackson’s career has gone from rookie backup to year two starter to losing his job after two games in year three to starting no games in year four (and presumably/hopefully none in year five).  Of these 81-82 franchise QBs in NFL history, how many of them were backups for at least their rookie years, became the starter, lost their job the following season, started no games the year after that and became valuable starters afterward?

 

None.  Zero of the 81 sat for some time, started, lost their job the following year and started zero games the year after that.  None of them really come very close to that.  The five who were closest to exceptions were Chandler, Hadl, Morton, Landry and Gannon.  Chris Chandler and John Hadl started as rookies and weren’t given the chance to start right away again (and Chandler had to change teams a few times).  Craig Morton, Greg Landry and Rich Gannon lost their jobs after 2-3 seasons (although Landry’s could have been due to an injury) before.  At best, this rounds up to 2 or 3 out of 81.  Only Chandler, Hadl and Gannon had careers we would want out from our QB of the future.  Most of their good seasons happened in their 30s, so even if TJ is destined to follow their exact career paths, the Vikings would need to address the QB position now anyway.

 

Brad Johnson is also probably of interest to Vikings fans.  When he gained and lost the starting role in Minnesota, he was traded to Washington as their immediate starter.  He did have his two best seasons with other teams, but it’s equally important to note that he was throwing more picks than TDs in the year 2000 while Daunte Culpepper was having the best season ever by a second year starting QB in NFL history.  Culpepper went on to produce five consecutive seasons of 10+ AV, including two of 20+ while none of Johnson’s four good years were back to back.

 

Here are the 33 rookie QBs who performed at least as well as Tarvaris Jackson did in his second year in terms of Approximate Value (31 excluding Kelly and Moon):

 

Rk

Player

Year

Age

Tm

Lg

G

GS

Yrs

PB

AP1

AV

1

Matt Ryan

2008

23

ATL

NFL

16

16

1

0

0

14

2

Jim Kelly*

1986

26

BUF

NFL

16

16

1

0

0

12

3

Joe Flacco

2008

23

BAL

NFL

16

16

1

0

0

11

4

Peyton Manning

1998

22

IND

NFL

16

16

1

0

0

11

5

Jim Plunkett

1971

24

NWE

NFL

14

14

1

0

0

11

6

Ben Roethlisberger

2004

22

PIT

NFL

14

13

1

0

0

11

7

Rick Mirer

1993

23

SEA

NFL

16

16

1

0

0

10

8

Warren Moon*

1984

28

HOU

NFL

16

16

1

0

0

10

9

Tony Banks

1996

23

STL

NFL

14

13

1

0

0

9

10

Charlie Batch

1998

24

DET

NFL

12

12

1

0

0

9

11

Dieter Brock

1985

34

RAM

NFL

15

15

1

0

0

9

12

Jeff Garcia

1999

29

SFO

NFL

13

10

1

0

0

9

13

Bob Griese*

1967

22

MIA

AFL

12

10

1

1

0

9

14

Byron Leftwich

2003

23

JAX

NFL

15

13

1

0

0

9

15

Vince Young

2006

23

TEN

NFL

15

13

1

1

0

9

16

Chris Chandler

1988

23

IND

NFL

15

13

1

0

0

8

17

Tim Couch

1999

22

CLE

NFL

15

14

1

0

0

8

18

Matt Leinart

2006

23

ARI

NFL

12

11

1

0

0

8

19

Carson Palmer

2004

25

CIN

NFL

13

13

1

0

0

8

20

Dennis Shaw

1970

23

BUF

NFL

14

12

1

0

0

8

21

George Shaw

1955

22

BAL

NFL

12

12

1

0

0

8

22

Fran Tarkenton*

1961

21

MIN

NFL

14

10

1

0

0

8

23

Jim Zorn

1976

23

SEA

NFL

14

14

1

0

0

8

24

Greg Cook

1969

23

CIN

AFL

11

11

1

0

0

7

25

Jeff George

1990

23

IND

NFL

13

12

1

0

0

7

26

Archie Manning

1971

22

NOR

NFL

12

10

1

0

0

7

27

Chris Weinke

2001

29

CAR

NFL

15

15

1

0

0

7

28

Steve Bartkowski

1975

23

ATL

NFL

11

11

1

0

0

6

29

Drew Bledsoe

1993

21

NWE

NFL

13

12

1

0

0

6

30

Randy Johnson

1966

22

ATL

NFL

14

11

1

0

0

6

31

Bernie Kosar

1985

22

CLE

NFL

12

10

1

0

0

6

32

Tobin Rote

1950

22

GNB

NFL

12

12

1

0

0

6

33

Mark Sanchez

2009

23

NYJ

NFL

15

15

1

0

0

6

 

Remember, these are rookie seasons.  These guys didn't have or need a year of learning from a Super Bowl winner who knew a lot about earning a roster spot through hard work and determination.  While TJ has been compared by Childress to Vince Young, VY was clearly better as a rookie.  Byron Leftwich, not considered good enough to add to the roster over Kelly Holcomb or Gus Frerotte, was also better as a rookie and posted 2 other seasons with an AV of 9 with the Jags.

 

Those who are curious about how Tarvaris jackson's first three seasons compare to others in terms of Approximate Value may go here.  He ranks around the 35th percentile there.  Nothing else is really different from the data and logical conclusions discussed in my last post.

 

The Vikings did not select Tony Pike or any other QB in the 2010 draft.  Perhaps they think that Favre will stick around until he’s 57 or that Sagevaris Jacksonfels is the answer despite the fact that neither of their careers parallels a long-term QB success story in NFL history.  Maybe they plan to trade for David Carr or had thought that they would get Jason Campbell in the trade the Raiders made instead.  But no tangible result from any effort to improve the QB depth and future, really?  I think that Toby Gerhart could be an exciting player, but I will need to see him as a worthy starter at FB and RB in order to stop thinking that a QB or another CB would have been more appropriate at that stage of the draft.

 

 

This FanPost was created by a registered user of The Daily Norseman, and does not necessarily reflect the views of the staff of the site. However, since this is a community, that view is no less important.

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