In my last post, I examined second year quarterbacks' Approximate Values (and explained and linked to other sources about AV).  I had arbitrarily set a standard of 10 AV for a good season.  Was that standard too high?  This post will take a look at which QBs have had 4 or more 10 AV seasons and whether a rookie can do it.

 87 QBs have 4+ 10 AV seasons since 1950.  Here are the top 21:

It's tough to argue that the top 5 or so are/were not among the very best of all time, not only in terms of production but also in terms of longevity.  Donovan McNabb is really moving up the list, and it will be interesting to see if the Mike Shanahan Effect graces him with some of the best seasons of his life (especially since he's already so much better than Jake Plummer ever was).

Unfortunately, AV data is incomplete for the 1950s, so I’ll work from a list of 82 QBs who have had 4+ seasons of 10+ AV since 1960 (81 excluding Eddie LaBaron since most of his career was in the 1950s):

As Vikings fans, we are most curious about Favre (#1 and feeling good about it after letting go of the past), Tarvaris Jackson and Rich Gannon, no?  (Sage hasn't started enough games to make an apples-to-apples comparison.)  So far, Tarvaris Jackson’s career has gone from rookie backup to year two starter to losing his job after two games in year three to starting no games in year four (and presumably/hopefully none in year five).  Of these 81-82 franchise QBs in NFL history, how many of them were backups for at least their rookie years, became the starter, lost their job the following season, started no games the year after that and became valuable starters afterward?

None.  Zero of the 81 sat for some time, started, lost their job the following year and started zero games the year after that.  None of them really come very close to that.  The five who were closest to exceptions were Chandler, Hadl, Morton, Landry and Gannon.  Chris Chandler and John Hadl started as rookies and weren’t given the chance to start right away again (and Chandler had to change teams a few times).  Craig Morton, Greg Landry and Rich Gannon lost their jobs after 2-3 seasons (although Landry’s could have been due to an injury) before.  At best, this rounds up to 2 or 3 out of 81.  Only Chandler, Hadl and Gannon had careers we would want out from our QB of the future.  Most of their good seasons happened in their 30s, so even if TJ is destined to follow their exact career paths, the Vikings would need to address the QB position now anyway.

Brad Johnson is also probably of interest to Vikings fans.  When he gained and lost the starting role in Minnesota, he was traded to Washington as their immediate starter.  He did have his two best seasons with other teams, but it’s equally important to note that he was throwing more picks than TDs in the year 2000 while Daunte Culpepper was having the best season ever by a second year starting QB in NFL history.  Culpepper went on to produce five consecutive seasons of 10+ AV, including two of 20+ while none of Johnson’s four good years were back to back.

Here are the 33 rookie QBs who performed at least as well as Tarvaris Jackson did in his second year in terms of Approximate Value (31 excluding Kelly and Moon):

Remember, these are rookie seasons.  These guys didn't have or need a year of learning from a Super Bowl winner who knew a lot about earning a roster spot through hard work and determination.  While TJ has been compared by Childress to Vince Young, VY was clearly better as a rookie.  Byron Leftwich, not considered good enough to add to the roster over Kelly Holcomb or Gus Frerotte, was also better as a rookie and posted 2 other seasons with an AV of 9 with the Jags.

Those who are curious about how Tarvaris jackson's first three seasons compare to others in terms of Approximate Value may go here.  He ranks around the 35th percentile there.  Nothing else is really different from the data and logical conclusions discussed in my last post.

The Vikings did not select Tony Pike or any other QB in the 2010 draft.  Perhaps they think that Favre will stick around until he’s 57 or that Sagevaris Jacksonfels is the answer despite the fact that neither of their careers parallels a long-term QB success story in NFL history.  Maybe they plan to trade for David Carr or had thought that they would get Jason Campbell in the trade the Raiders made instead.  But no tangible result from any effort to improve the QB depth and future, really?  I think that Toby Gerhart could be an exciting player, but I will need to see him as a worthy starter at FB and RB in order to stop thinking that a QB or another CB would have been more appropriate at that stage of the draft.