Gonzo Hits the Road and Football Outsiders Talks About the Minnesota Vikings
by Christopher Gates on Jul 30, 2010 12:28 PM CDT
in Vikings
8 comments
Hey, all. . .before I launch into the main part of the story here, I want to let everyone know that my wife and I begin our cross-country trip this evening. Ted is pretty much piloting the ship here and at SBNation Minnesota for the next couple of weeks while we're traveling. I'm going to try to check in a few times over the next couple of weeks, but it won't be all that frequently until right around the time the Vikings are getting ready to play their first pre-season game.
(Man, kind of Favre-like on my part. . .I guess I don't want to deal with Training Camp, either. Of course, I have a pretty good reason.)
Before I left, I wanted to give you all the conclusion of the questions that Football Outsiders was so kind to answer for me. The first half of the questions can be found over at SBNation Minnesota, so be sure to check those out as well. Remember, the 2010 version of the Football Outsiders football almanac is now available on their website or, if you insist on having a print copy, you can check out Amazon.com.
Have a good next couple of weeks, folks, and behave for Ted while I'm not here. Enjoy, folks!
6) Another website named Minnesota defensive end Jared Allen the most valuable non-quarterback in the NFL, based on the transformation of the Vikings pass rush that his presence has brought. Would you agree with such an assessment?
I can't agree with that, as great of a player I think Allen is. He doesn't have the impact Darrelle Revis does on the Jets defense.
7) The Vikings had a fairly decent draft, by most accounts, and made a couple of free agent moves despite being limited by the NFL's "Final Four" rules. Of the Vikings' newcomers, who do you think will have the most significant impact on their 2010 season?
I think Gerhart's really the only new player who stands out to me as a potential difference-maker this year. Chris Cook will play too, I suppose, but relying on rookie defensive backs to do anything is a scary proposition.
8) Another strange tidbit about the Vikings' defense that you folks have pointed out. . .they had the best defensive DVOA in the NFL through the first three quarters of football games, yet became the worst defense in terms of DVOA in the fourth quarter. Again, all I can ask is. . ."Wha' Happened?"
I think that's really just a fluke. If there really is something tangible to it -- the Williamses getting tired, Allen getting excited for the postgame beer, whatever -- it hasn't manifested itself in previous years to that sort of level. A year ago, with basically the same defensive guys, they had the second-BEST defensive DVOA in the league in the fourth quarter.
9) What are the best case and worst case scenarios that the folks at Football Outsiders envision for the 2010 Minnesota Vikings?
Well, our mean projection is 8.6 wins, which some Vikings fans might take as a worst-case scenario. I think I'd say the worst case would be a serious injury to Favre, AD, or Allen (or more than one), some serious struggles in a difficult division, and a 6-10 record. Best case? They're a dominant team in all facets of the game and go 14-2. I don't think anyone doubts this team can be elite if everything goes right.
10) This question isn't so much about the Vikings, but about the process you folks at Football Outsiders go through to come up with these stats. What sort of process do you have to go through to compile all of these stats, and does it inhibit your ability to watch the games as a football fan and constantly make you watch the games with the eyes of an uber-analyst?
If it weren't fun, I honestly wouldn't be doing this job. I would say that we just devote more time to football than most people do, and that gives us an ability to be two sorts of fans. During the games on Sunday, we're probably pretty similar to most people. I have a few of my friends over, we order some wings, and yell at the TV when players make stupid decisions. I'm certainly not sitting there with a calculator figuring out win probabilities. After the games are over, then work begins -- Aaron starts putting the play-by-play together at his house, I start formulating our Quick Reads article for ESPN, and we consider the games and what happened with a little more detachment and in a more analytical nature. Usually, I finish Quick Reads around 3 AM Monday morning or so, so it ends up being a 15-hour day. On the other hand, it's watching and talking about football! Can't beat that.
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First , Ted has been tossing out some good stories in the last week or so . Story-wise he’s on a roll . Hope if you went thru Iowa you caught Ragbrai .
6. Jared was hot and cold . I loved that his personality came out in commercials and interviews . The Rookie in Buffalo had nine INT’s . Nine takeaways have more impact to me then say 18 sacks . IMO
7. Gerhart fills a specific role . I feel that by seasons end Everson Griffen will have more reps than C. Cook .
8. Cover Two and prevent do not work together anymore . Blitz packages and disguised schemes are more successful in the fourth quarters . IMO
9. Brett gets his hand caught in Billy the Exterminators trap while chasing down the Armadillo (I suggest using blueberry waffles) and misses all 16 games . We go 7-9 . BEST: 16-0 this team can only get hurt by themselves and the injury bug .
10. I sit at NFL.com and monitor while I watch . It is the only way in the future I will follow the draft . I hand write each result to help retain info . I personal touch .
Have fun gonzo
I take it this guy is in the “no hype” off-season mood. I however believe that a worst case scenario for the Vikings isn’t 6-10 with Favre and Peterson or Allen being injured. First, if we get injuries on our O-line I think we’d be in a much more trouble as it seems to be that way for almost every team. Even if favre doesnt play for injury or retirement, this team still has 21 starters from last year that went 12-4 in a mediocre division. Mostly because Chicago had a terrible start and Detroit is Detroit. However, we beat a 11-5 team TWICE in our division. I understand Chicago probably has gotten stronger in many ways, and detroit have no other option but to get better. We have a solid mix of vets and youth that play strong as a unit and one or two injuries won’t put us below 9 wins.
I think its funny they think Revis is more of an impact player then Jared Allen. Sure, he can shut down any one reciever, or even half of a field in pass coverage, but he can’t do much in terms of stopping a force in the running game. You can avoid a cornerback in your game-plan. However, its hard to avoid a man on the line of scrimmage. Allen can be a force at helping stop both a running attack and most certainly a passing attack. 12-4 is what im predicting our team to go again this year, 2 coming within the division and with games against the jets, saints seem to be highly possible losses.
I also thought it was kind of silly he said a rookie cornerback is a scary position to rely on when his non quarterback mvp was revis (a rookie cornerback)
SKOL VIKES
Revis isn't a rookie..
He’s been in the league for like 3 years now. You just didn’t hear about him because he’s been under the radar until last year, because it was his contract year. Since he’s been in, he’s been overshadowed by CB-flavor-of-the-years anyways, like Cromartie in ’08, Finnegan/Asomugha in ’09, and then finally him last year.
Must Differ
Have a good vacation, Gonzo, be safe ’n stuff :)
On the FO’s season best and worst projections, with all due respect for their extensive football knowledge and number-crunching expertise, I have to disagree on the following grounds;
First, with the exception of Favre and Phat Pat, the entire team is either young and improving, or at their peak and can expect to be at that peak this year as well. Arguably, our two Senior Citizens are at their peak performance level as well, amazing as that is. Because of this, with last year’s momentum at their backs, they’re going to be better in 2010 than they were in 2009. The only one who has question marks there is the most critical position, QB. But if Favre can be protected (and the O-line looks to be better than they were last year), he should be alright. The team that sent nearly half the NFC’s representatives to the Pro Bowl, the team that many favored to go all the way but for the way they shot themselves in the foot, is not likely to suddenly drop to a .500 team unless the rest of the league shoots way up in ability. Not likely.
Second, the Vikings have surprising depth at nearly all positions, and yes, that includes QB. Last year the Vikings were rated one the top teams for QB depth with both Jackson and Rosenfels standing in the wings, and that’s our area of biggest concern. One case in point, when E.J. Henderson went down against the Cards, there was a lot of concern that the middle would go soft but our rook LB, Brinkley, stepped up and did a good job. Not an awesome job, but it was more than sufficient to help carry the team to the NFC CG, and I didn’t see where Brinkley’s inexperience or inability was critical to the outcome. We’ve hashed over the various issues at every position more times than I can count, since January, so I’m not going to do it again, but I think my point stands. Even with the issues the Vikings have, should major injuries strike all the way around, this is still a 10-6 team with a shot at the wild-card.
I’m standing on a 12-4 season. Sorry Football Outsiders, but I think you’ve dropped the ball harder than Adrian Peterson on this one :) . Which, if I’m correct, with 4 games out of kilter to skew your mean expectations, suggests the top end of your prediction board may be very suspect, even if the Vikings are the only team you’ve mis-judged.
Ah, ah,
We come from the land of the ice and snow,
From the midnight sun where the hot springs blow.
The hammer of the gods will drive our ships to new lands,
To fight the horde, singing and crying: Valhalla, I am coming!
SKOL!
1 wr vs where the qb stands and delievers
revis can take away a wide out for a game. big whoop, does he run support as well as winfield? NO. allen on the other can give the qb happyfeet. he can cause a te to stay in or chip so the te isnt going far down the field. and with any pass if the qb isnt comfortable the ability to complete a pass goes down . so allen has more impact on the passing game than revis. remember you can have 5 guys out for a pass revis takes away 1. allen can take away one as well and cause the qb to lose his timing . revis is a great cb but do cb get paid the most on defense ? no , the re does. why ? because dissrupting the qb is more important.and a big douchebag award needs to be givin about the allen cant wait for the postgame beer. the guys a recovering alcholic.
Naw
I’d say Revis has FAR more impact on the passing game than Allen. I’d give Allen the nudge as a better player because he has more utility, but Allen doesn’t take away an entire side of the field in the passing game. In terms of biggest impact on the passing game, and this IS a passing league, you just have to give it to Revis.
revis doesnt take away an entire side.
revis locks up one reciever, that isnt equal to a side of the field the qb still has 4 other options . if allen is making the qb run for his life ala tony romo it affects all 5 options for the qb. revis doesnt take away 27.5 yards by 100 thats an entire side of a field. no one does. he takes away a 7 yard area where the reciever is running. he doesnt cover all five options getting the qb on his back with the ball does.
We failed in the INT department last year . Frazier has to allow players to take a more aggressive approach during Prevent Cover Two schemes !
1. QB
2. LT
3. RDE
4. CB
These are my most important based on position . But when a rookie from BUF has nine INT’s . That kind of impact out weighs even Jared’s constant pressure . That type of individual success doesn’t happen often . Over the last five years I’d have said Jared .
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