*TJAX* Just in case!
by Jester01 on Aug 6, 2010 12:13 PM CDT
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I love to watch Brett Favre play. I love the excitement of knowing that the quarterback of my favorite team can pull off a play like he did against the 49ers last year. I would love to have him back this year, but after the rumor of him retiring (which came off as pretty much total BS to me to begin with) I thought I would do my part to try to reassure Vikings nation that all hope is not lost. I work with a couple of other Vikings fans that started worrying. Other people I work with that are fans of other teams started mocking us and the text messages from friends started flowing in. I support Tarvaris Jackson. I feel that he has improved enough each year, to the point I feel that he could lead our team if need be. (No, I am not AGAINST drafting Jake Locker, or Andrew Luck in this coming draft.)
So to show that I support TJAX, I put my time and effort into putting something together to try to convince other Vikings fans, that if need be, TJAX would not be the end of our season. To go along with that we have a great supporting cast to go along with him. (Besides, Trent Dilfer won a Super Bowl.)
Tarvaris Jackson’s last 7 starts (2008) stat lines:
Vs. Phil. Eagles 15/35, 164 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT – LOSS 14-26
Vs. NY Giants 16/26, 239 yards, 1TD, 1 INT – WIN 20-19
Vs. Atl Falcons 22/36, 233 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT – LOSS 17-24
@ AZ Cards 11/17, 163 yards, 4 TD, 0 INT – WIN 35-14
@ Det. Lions 8/10, 105 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT (End of game fill in for INJ Gus Frerotte result WIN)
Vs. Ind Colts 14/24, 130 yards, 0TD, 0 INT – LOSS 15-18
Vs. GB Pack 16/35, 178 yards, 1TD, 1 INT – LOSS 19-24
Totals: 102/183, 1212 yards, 9TD, 3 INT
AVG/game 0.557 comp%, 173 yards/game, 1.28 TD/game, 0.33 INT/game – 0.428 Win%
Tarvaris Jackson had a 95.4 QB rating on the season.
This may seem like a bad example of why I support Tarvares Jackson. The AZ Cards game is the only game you can really look at and say, "Ok, it was a lucky game." I was at this game. It was his first full game back from being benched in favor of Gus Frerotte. Now I appreciate how Gus handled his position all year. But that’s all Gus was, a "manager" of the game. Adrian Peterson and our defense took us places. Gus got a lot of credit for what he did, and with all due respect, handled an easier section of the schedule.
Opponents in TJax games: 48/47 – Win% 1.02
Opponents in Gus’s games: 70/74 – Win% 0.94
Ok, so Tarvares Jackson is also just a game "manager". Basically as long as he doesn’t screw up, he can play, right? At least until we get somebody better. Well, I can at least tell you that that person is not Sage Rosenfels.
Alright, here are their season lines stacked up TJAX & Gus:
TJAX: 102/183, 1212 yards, 9TD, 3 INT
AVG/game 0.557 comp%, 173 yards/game, 1.28 TD/game, 0.33 INT/game – 0.428 Win%
Gus F: 178/301, 2157 yards, 12TD, 15 INT
AVG/game 0.591 comp%, 196 yards/game, 1.09 TD/game, 1.36 INT/game – 0.727 Win%
Ok, so now that I have you convinced … or not so much (cause I know you’re saying, " alright, so what… its comparing to Gus F.").
2009 – "Year of "THE #4""
Brett Favre: 363/531, 4202yards, 33TD, 7 INTQB Pass rating: 107.2
AVG/game .683 comp%, 263 yards/game, 2.06 TD/game, 0.44 INT/game – 0.75 Win%
TJAX: 14/21, 201 yards, 1TD, 0 INT, QB Pass rating: 113.4
AVG/game .667 comp %, 33.5 yards/game, 0.16 TD/game, 0 INT/game – 1.000 Win%
Ok, lets change this up a little here. Brett’s lowest amount of passes attempted in a game last year were… exactly 21… against Cleveland. So lets just hypothetically say TJAX played 1 full game worth of throws.
Now we have:
TJAX: 14/21, 201 yards, 1TD, 0 INT, QB Pass rating: 113.4
AVG/game .667 comp %, 201 yards/game, 1 TD/game, 0 INT/game
Continuing on:
Brett threw on average 33.18 times per game. That is 1.57 times more on average than TJAX. So hypothetically if TJAX passed 33 times in a game, his stats would look like this:
22/33 , 315 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT – Hey… Not bad!!!
Alright, so we all know that he CANNOT do this everygame. It is all going to vary based on gameplan, the opponent, experience, everything is going to vary. Oh yeah, also the fact that he only threw 21 passes in 6 games. So you could say that those hypothesis did not prove anything. You can prove though, that every year, he has improved.
2006: 58% Compl. Rate, 2 TD, 4 INT, 62.5 QB Rating
2007: 58.2% Compl. Rate, 9 TD, 12 INT, 70.8 QB Rating
2008: 59.1% Compl. Rate, 9 TD, 2 INT, 95.4 QB Rating
2009: 66.7% Compl. Rate, 1 TD, 0 INT, 113.4 QB Rating
Now lets make a 2010 prediction at the rate of minimum improvements (Because maximum improvement would look ridiculously good). For example: the smallest improvement he made on completion % was .2 from 2006 to 2007. So lets say the minimum improvement from 2009 to 2010 is 0.2. His 2010 completion % would be 66.9. The minimum improvement (not counting from 08’ to 09’) fro TD’s would be +7 from 06’ to 07’. For TD to INT ratio, the improvement (meaning not a negative) 4.5% improvement. So improving from the 2009 to 2010 season we would end up looking like this:
2010: 66.9% Compl. Rate, 16 TD’s, 4 INT’s
So remember, that is minimum improvement. The most attempts Jackson has attempted in a season was 294. So off the numbers above, at the rate of 294 passes in a season, we would have:
2010:196/294, 2814 yards, 16 TD’s, 4 INT’s… Alright, that is looking a little more realistic. Lets compare this hypothetical season to other QB’s.
Fran Tarkenton – 1976 – 255/412, 2961 yards, 17 TD, 8 INT, QB Rating 89.3
Tarkenton led the Vikings to the Superbowl, in a 32-14 loss to the Oakland Raiders. Made a trip to the Pro Bowl.
Warren Moon – 1988 – 160/294, 2327 yards, 17 TD, 8 INT, QB Rating 88.4
Moon played in only 11 regular season games, 2 additional playoff games. Led the Oilers to a divisional playoff game. Lost 17-10 against the Bills. Earned a trip to the Pro Bowl
Tom Brady – 2001 – 264/413, 2843 yards, 18 TD, 12 INT, QB Rating 86.5
Brady let the 2001 Patriots to a 20-17 Superbowl win over the Rams, after taking over for an injured Drew Bledsoe in the 2nd game of the season.
Jim Kelly – 1990 – 219/346, 2829 yards, 24TD, 9 INT, QB Rating 101.2
Jim Kelly started 14 games and led the Bills to a 13-3 record. The Bills lost the Superbowl 20-19 to the NY Giants. Also made a trip to the Pro Bowl.
You may not like these comparisons, but I am a hobbyist, not an ESPN analyst! Off the top of my head, these were some of the closest comparisons I could find.
I hope you enjoyed this article. I also hope that #4 returns. But most of all, I hope that in the case of Favre retiring, that Vikings fans can unite, and give the next QB (whoever that may be) your full support. It is much easier to succeed when people believe in you and support you!
This FanPost was created by a registered user of The Daily Norseman, and does not necessarily reflect the views of the staff of the site. However, since this is a community, that view is no less important.
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Brett Favre, TJ, and every other Viking has my support as well.
I appreciate the work you put in to this.
What seperated TJ and the others...
might be making the big plays at the right time. A QB can come out with good numbers and not be a winner cause when the time comes, they can’t get that first down to extend the drive or the clutch TD. I think that is where the Gus and Brett factors won out over Tavaris. Honestly I like to let Viking fans rip on him but I think he’s a little better than he gets credit for. That said, he’s still a large step back from what you had last year.
We haven't seen much of him except for a little garbage time since 08'
so who knows what we have in him now. I think we still make the playoffs w/ TJ myself.
Agreed.
I agree that just because you have good stats, doesn’t make you a good situational QB. I don’t agree that Gus had the “situational” factor any more than TJ, besides the experience factor. *Remember that when Gus went down against Detroit, the Vikings were losing. TJ led the vikings back to a win. What Tavaris Jackson had to face in 2008 before he was benched in favor of Gus (and I should have included this in the Post) was a 12th ranked Packers pass defense, and a 6th ranked Colts pass defense. Of course it wasn’t known at the time that he was facing that… but now that we are into the future, you can look back and see that TJ wasn’t as bad as previously thought. Here are some breakdowns of the defenses each played that year, with the rank of pass defense next to them.
TJAX – GB(12), IND, (End of DET), AZ(22),ATL,NYG,Phil(3) – Avg(12)
Gus – Detx2(27),Chix2(30),Car(16),Ten(9),NO(23),GB(12),Hou(17),TB(4),Jax(24) -Avg(19)
I wish we could have seen Tarvaris play against those teams as well, it would have been a good way to see how much he had improved.
I read an article that also made a good point: Berrian is somewhat new to TJ and Harvin is completely new to TJ. Sidney Rice was injured a good portion of time while TJ played, and defenses were stuffing the box on TJ because of the threat of AP28. That made short passes such as passes to Visanthe, tough passes.
These are “new weapons” as far as TJ is concerned. I liked Bobby Wade, but he was not Percy Harvin.
I’m not saying TJAX is going to be Brett Favre, but who is? I am fine if TJAX ends up to be as good as say… Eli Manning
Oops
I missed that I excluded some ranks before I posted… Here is the line:
TJAX – GB(12), IND, (End of DET27), AZ(22),ATL,NYG,Phil(3) – Avg(12)
Good stats can make you a great back-up !
Jackson fits his current role . A two year/3Mil extension will work for both . In two years he can find his Oakland or Buffalo . Then back to backup for a GB or CHI . You know someone that almost cares enough to reach for the big game .
What I notice in these games...
is that, when Jackson has to throw it… we lose. That isn’t a good sign. Look at those wins, there are a ridiculously low amount of passes thrown, meaning the RB or Defense probably scored enough to where we didn’t need to pass. When we do need to pass, we end up losing. This obviously has something to do with other factors than solely Jackson, but it isn’t a good sign that when he has to pass 20+ times he can’t lead us back to victory.
Other factors
Other factors such as Chilly refuses to let TJ have full control of the playbook? Fact is, we have a star RB in AP28. We are a run 1st, pass 2nd team. TJAX doens’t have to be Peyton Manning or Brett Favre. Really, he can just be Trent Dilfer… but I think he has the potential to be a Eli Manning or Carson Palmer type of player. I think he has a good potential to be a starter, with a good TD to INT ratio, a good completion %, and he is mobile.
Well I meant more like..
the defense giving up big plays and whatnot which cause us to pass and put more pressure on Jackson. I’m not sure about the Childress-playbook thing. I mean, yeah, he had Jackson on a tight leash to start the ’08 season and when it was loosened he did better, until he played a good defense, at which point he paniced in the second half when called on to carry the team with his arm.
I don’t see him as an Eli Manning at all yet. He hasn’t played enough for me to get that kind of a feeling. Right now, I see him as more of an Alex Smith, a QBOTF who hasn’t lived up to his billing yet, but has shown signs of progress.
Exactly...
I wouldn’t say he is Eli Manning yet either, but I see the potentialfor him to be just that. Eli is not spectacular. Definately not his brother. But good decision making, and physical ability. Our defense doesn’t give up a lot of big plays, but on occasion they do. We don’t find ourselves down very often, and in that case, not by much. Our team did improve last year, with some developing DB’s, obviously Favre, addition of P. Harvin, and a healthy S. Rice. As I said in a past post:
Berrian is somewhat new to TJ and Harvin is completely new to TJ. Sidney Rice was injured a good portion of time while TJ played, and defenses were stuffing the box on TJ because of the threat of AP28. That made short passes such as passes to Visanthe, tough passes.
These are "new weapons" as far as TJ is concerned. I liked Bobby Wade, but he was not Percy Harvin.
I agree on the Alex Smith quote. But Alex Smith was SUPPOSED to be great. I feel TJ has improved at a faster pace than Alex, he just needs to play.
I would rather...
I would rather take my chances keeping a weapon like AP28, and having a good quarterback, than trading AP for a great quarterback and chancing the RB position. Brett Favre had a great season, but unless you are blind, you will realize that much of his success had to do with the defenses being forced to protect the run more than the pass.
The problem with that scenario is
We don’t have a good QB. Unless you’re talking about Favre. Take him out of the equation, however, and we more than likely have only a servicable-QB, middle of the pack type. Game managers just don’t cut it anymore. The past few years, you just don’t see game-managing QBs making it far in the playoffs. I mean, we’ll probably be a playoff team with Jackson, yes, but will we go as far as we did with Favre? No, highly unlikely, unless AP/the defense just plays out of their minds.
I’d much rather have a QB who can beat the defenses when they’re defending against the pass, which leaves the running game also open for a seemingly-average back to put up respectable but not ground-shaking numbers. I mean, if I had to pick between Manning/Brees/Favre or Chris Johnson… I’m taking the QB. Not only are their careers potentially twice as long as the RBs, they touch the ball every offensive snap, and the league is geared towards passing.
how often
Do you get a Q.B. like Favre thrown in your laps,theres no way you can compare Farvre and T.J.But the first team that drafted Farvre traded him.We dont know what we really have in T.J yet we just might have a diamond in the rough.T.J. got thrown to the wolves and Coach Chilly sold him out.
Give T.j. A chance.
Jackson will be fine
Nobody is expecting him to come out and light it up every week. What we should expect is a quarterback who does a good job, and has taken some big steps toward realizing his potential.
The thing to look for is this: will he start to take a chance now and then, and if so, will it be in the right situation (at mid-field, on first or second down)? If so, that’s another sign he has made progress.
There is no sign yet that Jackson has stopped developing. Nobody knows how much more potential he has.
MB, your opinion please....
Would the level of QB play that you described have led us to the 2010 NFC Championship game?
"We have a right to be proud, for in our veins flows the blood of many brave races who fought as the lion fights for lordship. Here, in the whirlpool of European races, the Ugric tribe bore down from Iceland the fighting spirit which Thor and Odin gave them, which their Berserkers displayed to such fell intent on the seaboards of Europe, ay, and of Asia and Africa too, till the peoples thought that the werewolves themselves had come."
-from Bram Stoker's Dracula
The pick-6 he threw to Philly in the playoffs...
I’m getting old and my memory of that play is not clear. I want to say that it was simply a mind-boggling horrendous mistake, the kind that pretty much drains all trust and confidence from fans as well as teammates. Am I off-base here..?
Yeah, the desperation throw of his back foot was pretty terrible. I felt pretty assured at that point that you guys weren’t going to win simply because Jackson would not be able to do his part when needed.
by packallday555 on Aug 8, 2010 3:59 PM CDT up reply actions
Wait and See
We haven’t seen what Tarvaris Jackson can do NOW. Today. We know he’s improved during his time with Brett, but we don’t know how much. At this point, the main thing he needs is playing time and as long as Favre’s on the field, T-Jack isn’t going to get much of that. So we don’t know. I don’t think the Vikings know for sure either.
All we can do is wait and see. And hope.
Ah, ah,
We come from the land of the ice and snow,
From the midnight sun where the hot springs blow.
The hammer of the gods will drive our ships to new lands,
To fight the horde, singing and crying: Valhalla, I am coming!
SKOL!
You have proven a point
and that is statistics can prove anything if you massage them enough. Taking TJ’s stats while he’s playing in Garbage time and treating them as if they are pertinent is a crime. TJ’s problem isn’t just that his accuracy stinks (55% is not good) it’s also that he seems to have a limited understanding of football in general. He doesn’t do reads well, he can’t see the blitz, he doesn’t check down well or look off DB’s. He tends to panick in advers situations and make mistakes and most glaringingly he has a hard time working with the play book.
Next time how about we get a smart QB instead of an athletic one?
It's a lot easier to love the Vikings when they win...
Pennington, anyone?
Ah, ah,
We come from the land of the ice and snow,
From the midnight sun where the hot springs blow.
The hammer of the gods will drive our ships to new lands,
To fight the horde, singing and crying: Valhalla, I am coming!
SKOL!
Little late now
If we signed him 2 seasons ago, I’d be all for it. Now? No thanks.
Yeah
That was me doing a flashback, can’t put the toothpaste back in the tube
Ah, ah,
We come from the land of the ice and snow,
From the midnight sun where the hot springs blow.
The hammer of the gods will drive our ships to new lands,
To fight the horde, singing and crying: Valhalla, I am coming!
SKOL!
I do remember this conversation from last year though
lol, we were all a lot more depressed last year about this time though…
It's a lot easier to love the Vikings when they win...
Pre-Season Jitters
I hope that in the end, we’re all just picking nits on a team which many non-Saints fans thought should have gone all the way last year. Let’s face it, this really is a very good, multi-faceted threat team which is pretty much intact from it’s last run at the Lombardi. Sure, there’s some minor issues and questions, but there’s also every reason to expect a lot of improvement in most aspects of the team, too. I suspect a lot of fans out there would be thrilled to only worry about the things we agonize over :)
Ah, ah,
We come from the land of the ice and snow,
From the midnight sun where the hot springs blow.
The hammer of the gods will drive our ships to new lands,
To fight the horde, singing and crying: Valhalla, I am coming!
SKOL!
He doesn't mean his arm strength..
he’s talking about the shoulder surgery he got AGAIN this off season.
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