2500 yards would be one heck of a milestone for our Adrian Peterson. Heck, 2000 yards would be. Chris Johnson reached that platform last year. After looking at his stats last year, and where his team started to have success I noticed something. As you know The Titans lost their first 6 games of the year (without Vince) and Chris johnsons road to supremacy wasn't looking so great. Also, Once the Titans started to feature Chris Johnson with 25+ carries a game the team as a whole started to be better. Which makes me believe we need to continue to feature Adrian Peterson with excessive doses of Runs. After the jump i'll take a statistical look at what it will take for AP to reach his goals and in return will give catapult our vikings into the Play-offs. From there, we all know its anyones game.
The most recent guy to reach 2000 has been Chris Johnson. So lets compare his 1st 3 games of that year to A.P.'s this year.
CJ: game 1: 57 yards; 0TDS; 1 reception for 11 Yards----Game 2: 197 yards; 2TDS; 9 receptions for 87 Yards and 1TD---Game 3: 97 Yards; 0TDS; 1 reception for 8 Yards.
Total: 351 Yards; 2TD's; 11 Receptions for 106 Yards; 1TD
AD/AP: game 1: 87 Yards 0TDS; 3 receptions for 14 Yards----Game 2: 145 Yards 1TD; 5 receptions for 41 Yards---Game 3: 160 Yards 2TDS; 5 receptions for 30 Yards.
Total: 392 Yards; 3 TDS; 13 receptions for 85 Yards
Very close in comparison so far. I'd like to note that the Titans didn't start to really feed C.Johnson the ball untill after their bye (week 7). The Titans went 8-2 during this stint of 25+ carries with Johnson. I think we need to make the same approach. We don't want to run the ball every time but a 5 runs to 3 passes should be a solid ratio. This of course not based on situational calls on long distances and such.
What Adrian Peterson needs to accomplish from here on out to make himself apart of the elite backs of all time and put our Vikings into the play-offs and remain the NFC North Kings.
Game 4: New York Jets/ A good team defense. So lets go a little under his season average of 130 yards a game.
Game 5: Dallas/ another stout defense against the run ( Peterson had only 63 yards against them in the play-offs but we won 34-3) Might have to go under the 100 yard mark for realistic reasons.
Game 6: Green Bay/ Lets just go off his average against them from last year to keep it honest
(76 Yards) Even though I'd predict it much higher
Game 7: New England/ I think they are pretty vulnerable to the run and they are giving up 119 yds a game. This is AP so lets go a little above that
total ( 813)
Game 8: Arizona Cardinals/ I'm expecting a big posting from a team that is currently 31st in yards a game at 140.
Game 9: Chicago Bears/ He's been the most consistent against the bears for his career at 122 a game.
(122 Yards) Certainly possible to post a higher number
Game 10: Green Bay/ lets keep it the same as the first meeting to give wiggle room for a worst performance or a better performance.
game 11: Redskins/ a fairly stout Defense against the Run. This will likely be a cold game.
game 12: Buffalo/ bottom of the league against the Run. Could be a good game to break his 296 yards in a game. But i'll be more realistic.
game 13: Giants/ Its hard to say how this team will be playing because of their streaks they go on. so lets go based on their current average allowed.
Game 14: Chicago Bears/ although he has had some really succesful games against them he has put up average numbers too. Lets go much lower then his average.
Game 15: Eagles/ Good against the pass but small and weak against the run. I'm noticing that our last 8 opponents are very weak teams against the run. Good for us, bad for them. And GREAT for Petersons goal.
Game 16: Lions/ our last game and I believe it will come down to this game for him to reach that platform of greatness. You couldn't ask for a better opponent to do it against especially for how he did last week against them.
My take: I believe I left some wiggle room for error of giving him too many yards on some games. I think its safe to say that 2500 Yards would take 3 or 4 200 yard games. Possible but I doubt it will happen. His best chance is to do it in the second half of the season when teams appear as of now to be vulnerable on the ground defense.
If Peterson reaches this plateu and my guideline i've set for him =o) then I think this team is 11-5. Lets start giving him the rock 25+ times and watch the greatest show to ever show. (yeah, better then the Rams Greatest show on turf)