When Should You Start Taking Defenses And Kickers In Fantasy Football?

by Christopher Gates on Sep 5, 2010 10:16 PM CDT in Fantasy Football

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When people start racking and stacking their draft boards for fantasy football leagues, the kickers and team defenses are a bit of an afterthought, and with good reason. . .the big points are, obviously, going to come from your running backs and wide receivers and quarterbacks, and defenses and kickers are generally afterthoughts.

When one looks at the team defensive rankings from CBS Sports, one sees that the New York Jets are projected to be the best defense in terms of scoring points in our league's point system, as they're projected to bring in 226 total points. At the other end of the spectrum sits the St. Louis Rams, who are only expected to bring in 120 total points. If we figure that, in a 12-team league such as the Daily Norseman league that we've set up with CBSSports.com Fantasy Football Commissioner, one of the 12 best defenses will start every week. The difference between the Jets and the Chicago Bears (who the rankings show as be 12th) is 70 points over the course of a season.

If you figure that each of those defenses plays 15 times (16 weeks for the regular season, minus the one week they won't play due to a bye), the Jets should average about 15.1 points/game, while the Bears should average about 10.4 points/game. That's an average of less than five points per week. If there's a defense that you absolutely positively have to have on your roster for whatever reason, you might want to grab them early, but by and large you should be alright to hold off on taking a defense until a little later on. In the DN league, the first defense (that wasn't taken by an auto-picking team) was taken in the eighth round, which is a bit early for my liking, but hey. . .I haven't won a fantasy football championship in a while, so my advice might not be the best to take. I'm just saying is all.

Also, in most cases, you should only take one defense. The byes don't start until Week 4, and if you have a defense that's taking that week off (like the Vikings, for example), by Week four you should be able to pinpoint a player or two on your roster that's expendable enough to drop and take a replacement defense with a favorable match-up.

The difference between kickers is even more negligible. The difference between the top-ranked kicker in the CBS Sports Rankings, Garrett Hartley of New Orleans, and the kicker rated number 12, is 24 points over the course of the season. That's a difference of 1.6 points/week. Just like the defenses, you should only draft one kicker (for the same reasons), and there's really no reason for you to draft a kicker before the last round of your draft. Worry about filling out the rest of your roster first, and then just tack the kicker on to the end.

What about you folks? Do you have any preferences for drafting defenses and kickers in your fantasy drafts? Talk about that, and or any other fantasy football-related stuff, right here. . .even trash talking, if you so desire.

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Gee… thanks, man. You couldn’t have posted this a week ago? You know, when your lowly hockey blogger buddy got roped into a football draft? Too late now. Thanks for nothing. ;-)

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Rule #17: You may not impersonate representatives of Hockey Wilderness and handout NHL themed wrist bands.

by BReynolds on Sep 5, 2010 10:19 PM CDT reply actions

Pretty much agree with you.

Although if I get a top five defense and have a throwaway pick at the end a second defense can give you some good matchup options. Kickers should never be drafted until the last round. Stupid kickers : )

by CanadianViking on Sep 5, 2010 10:53 PM CDT reply actions

I have had some problems with this thinking for a long time

Yes, kicker stats waiver from year to year but even with all “the experts” telling me not to and showing me stat sheets, I will waiver on that and most of the time take my kicker with the 2nd to last pick.
Look at those stats there are always a few in the top 10 every year and provide you with a pretty good hope of racking up some points. Teams with high scoring offenses where EP’s favor that kicker along with red zone opportunitied for 3.
That being said, if I am picking at the end of the final round, I am not going to use a “Mr Irrelevant” pick and wind up with the 8-12 best kicker. I will take him the round B4 and grab a guy like Longwell or Boronis ( and a couple others) I know will be productive. It is hard to predict who will be #1 but if I am one of the 1st 5 to get a kicker I can bet I will be OK. So NO, not waiting til the final round is always the perfect idea. By that time I am struggling for who I really want on my bench anyway and more times than not, I get that same guy with my last pick. In two leagues I got Devone Bess as a security blanket with my last pick. There were others. I just think Bess has some upside even with Marshall-I won’t get into that.
Defenses-Now this depends on your scoring system. Don’t always assume standard rankings will work in your league. We have a higher point value for points allowed and punt/kickoff yard points. This pushes some defenses to a point average higher than most tight ends. So this will determine what round I go for one. But defensive scoring is often as unpredictable as if a good kicker will have as good of year as the previous one. Any league league- grab the best D available if you get smoked on a quality TE then take a second teir TE. John Carlson is often a guy left sitting out there. I even found Winslow and Heath Miller after my defense pick. Shank might even be there if you ar ein a league that doesn’t have tons of Vikes fans like most of mine. Even if standard or our leagues way one D is enough. As stated you should know by bye week who you can afford to dump of your bench and grab a replacement D. About this time the waiver wire gets interesting so if I have the Vikes, Jets or Ravens and they do as expected I can keep them protected.
That bing said, I am not the end all on this and I have planned and planned for drafts only to look and wonder “what the heck did I do?” We had a interesting DN fun league draft. Our prize league was really one that had some moments. I made a deal to get CJ only to then pass on higher rated WR because , just once, I want to see what I could do with both Steve Smiths. My trading partner may have been looking to take MJD anyway so in the bargain I agreed not to take Mendenhall later. Battle of the minds that turned out pretty even.
Yes this was long but this has been my life in august the last 3 years. So it gets me going.
So please don’t comment about me writing a book instead.
Ah-go ahead. I deserve it :)

by CitrusFLViking on Sep 6, 2010 7:16 PM CDT up reply actions

Read it all man.

Just hosted my own draft yesterday and got the sixth rated kicker Rob Bironas with the third to last pick in the draft. I have occasionally picked a good kicker in the second to last round if there’s only a couple good options left. I didn’t mean to lump defenses in with kickers as not so important. I like to draft a top five defense but don’t force it by taking one early. I’ve had good success carrying two defenses throughout the year and add/dropping one of them nearly every week based on matchups. You often get better results starting a bad team like TB’s defense against a terrible team like STL than say starting the Eagles defense against the Saints. Sometimes it’s just random though and one team will get two or three return TDs and smoke you: ) A good defense you can pick up late this year is the Chargers. They’re not that great of a D but Sproles plus a really soft schedule makes them a bargain.

by CanadianViking on Sep 6, 2010 7:53 PM CDT up reply actions

Hey Canadian

As you know if you have played awhile. It xan be LT was a top 2 pick and then fell off. I had Westbrook and Portis-looking good right. Well, rember them last year?
I have had horrible teams, or so I thought and won the title. Great looking teams and had them go down to injuty, old age,etc
Ya just never know.
I got CJ in one draft. Are they going to beat him into an injury, Anything can and will happen. A drafting of Boronis could very well mean a couple wins for ya.
Everyone-good luck and lets blog on outr results as the year flows

by CitrusFLViking on Sep 6, 2010 8:11 PM CDT up reply actions

It can be like when LT

Got a laptop for the 1st time and mess up with the keys :}

by CitrusFLViking on Sep 6, 2010 8:13 PM CDT up reply actions

That's funny you mention CJ and LT.

I was drafting 10th in a 12 team league last year and had to choose between the two and was lucky to end up picking CJ and thought I’d made a mistake until the games started : )

by CanadianViking on Sep 7, 2010 5:00 AM CDT up reply actions

Interesting

Actually, I’ve been known to take a high scoring D or kicker as early as round 4

"Over? Did you say over? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!" "Germans?" "Forget it, he's rolling."

by VikesFaninNM on Sep 5, 2010 11:19 PM CDT reply actions

Don't get me wrong

I’m not saying you can’t. . .particularly on the defensive front. But the difference between a “high scoring” kicker and a “middle of the road” kicker is pretty insignificant.

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by Christopher Gates on Sep 5, 2010 11:33 PM CDT up reply actions

To wit

The difference between Hartley and Josh Brown of the Rams, rated as the lowest kicker, is 45 points (142 for Hartley, 97 for Brown).

For a 15-week season, that’s STILL only 3 points/week difference. . .still less significant than the defense.

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by Christopher Gates on Sep 5, 2010 11:35 PM CDT up reply actions

Sorry Chris

Didnt mean it like that. lol Just more or less throwing out my 2 cents.

"Over? Did you say over? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!" "Germans?" "Forget it, he's rolling."

by VikesFaninNM on Sep 6, 2010 11:32 AM CDT up reply actions

I wasn't trying to be mean or anything

I was just saying that I’m not a huge fan of taking kickers or defenses high, that’s all. (-:

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by Christopher Gates on Sep 6, 2010 11:50 AM CDT up reply actions

True but...

then go to consistancy. Long term guys are reliable guys. I go with reliability and strength of offense more tha a rank

by CitrusFLViking on Sep 6, 2010 8:49 PM CDT up reply actions

Round 4 for a D

Proboly could wait til 5th or 6th but it depends on your scoring. Go with your gut. If you feel that D will make a difference and already had some strenths.
A kicker in round 4 I would question. Now, I will confess I have taken one in the 10th. Then I have seen goofy crap happen. Like a run of kickers early and everyone follows. Which I wouldn’t if 4 guys make Kickers early picks. Then WTH I will wait, bu tnot follow that lead. It just left 4 guys on the board for me

by CitrusFLViking on Sep 6, 2010 7:23 PM CDT up reply actions

I try and do the opposite of any position runs.

If there’s an early run on WRs just snap up the best RBs or if the run is on TEs grab the good WRs. When I decide to fill a particular spot I usually end up missing value.

by CanadianViking on Sep 6, 2010 7:58 PM CDT up reply actions

Yes I agree totally

trouble is I have trouble breaking the trend. Its like a dude in position to get both say Fitz and Andre – yes it could happen. I could have made it happen. So why didn’t I? Fear of no RB’’s or discomfort with 2nd teir RB’s
By the way Housh to Ravens. Did Falcco stock rise a little if ya got him rather than the big name boy’s?

by CitrusFLViking on Sep 6, 2010 8:53 PM CDT up reply actions

Yeah, it's hard to break the trend sometimes but it usually pays off.

Housh will help Flacco’s consistency some but they’ve got no deep threats on their offense. Three veteran possession receivers should cut down on his INTs a bit too so I think Flacco will be more steady this year.

by CanadianViking on Sep 7, 2010 5:16 AM CDT up reply actions

Completely agree

I usually end up with a defense in the 2nd to last round and a kicker in the last – simply because far too many people reach on defenses. I actually ended up with the 16th ranked defense in a league this season because 3 people picked backups before I picked a starter.

BTW, my fantasy record is pretty good – Rarely do I miss the playoffs in a 12 team league. (and usually am doing quite well – last season finished 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in 3 leagues)

by Galkuris on Sep 5, 2010 11:33 PM CDT reply actions

Kickers and defenses are completely insignificant

I only carry one of each, and cut and add new ones when their bye week hits.

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by Ted Glover on Sep 6, 2010 12:48 AM CDT reply actions

Agreed ted

by CitrusFLViking on Sep 6, 2010 7:25 PM CDT up reply actions

soooo

its about a 6 points average swing with both def and k between 1 and 12 ranked . you take 12 and 12 and lose four games by 5 or less . you miss the playoffs and sit on the big comfy couch with all the other non play off teams and wonder why did i wait so long on a def and kicker i used those “to early to draft a def and k slots” on 2 longshot bench players that didnt pan out aka bye week drops . there is a pro and a con to whichever strat you use .

by skol viking on Sep 6, 2010 1:10 AM CDT reply actions

6 points

There is a lot bigger difference in position players than defenses.

by Galkuris on Sep 6, 2010 12:27 PM CDT up reply actions

in the 11th round and on

when you start to think defense . the positional players arent all that.there are some quality bye week fill ins a few sleepers etc. but if the top 5 are off the board then you steer your ship in another direction remember a guy on the bench scores fake fantasy points a defense is scoring real fantasy points week in and week out. depends on how your league scoring system is also. ours has a sliding scale for points given up by defense and punt return yards so in our league the top 5 defenses are in the top 75 at end of year . 12 teams we start 8 . so the more slots you have in top 75 will result in better chance of playoffs . in the end no one knows what will happen thats why they play the games. we watch and cheer for points many draft strats to use, but in the end an injury here and there it can all unravel but at the end of the week ill trade a ffl win for vikes win everytime .

by skol viking on Sep 6, 2010 1:31 PM CDT up reply actions

the real math

forcasted points and actual points can be about as true as a meterologist forcast also.

by skol viking on Sep 6, 2010 1:17 AM CDT reply actions

TE's

Tight Ends are typically not a very favorable pick high. However, in my last draft, the person with the first pick (adrian Peterson) came back around to him he selected the 2 best tight ends. Its a PPR so their stock is a little higher and I thought it was a brilliant move. He got Dallas Clark and Vernon Davis. We have a WR/RB/TE slot as well so he can start both of them, and ideally taking the 2 best Tight ends from everyone else. If your the first pick, its a pretty smart move. He still ended up with CJ spiller and Hines ward. Anyhow, it was the first time I had seen that and if you still have a draft, I reccommend trying it out.

by PurpleJesuZ on Sep 6, 2010 11:05 AM CDT reply actions

That's an interesting strategy.

Cutting the supply of tight ends for everybody else and having two guys who put up good WR type numbers. I like it.

by CanadianViking on Sep 6, 2010 12:19 PM CDT up reply actions

He does have a good point

Having a Clark, Witten, or even a Shiancoe (yeah, I’m biased. . .what of it) means that you’re basically playing 9-on-8 if your opponent doesn’t have a good one. And, hey, if you can start two TEs in your league. . .why the heck not hog a couple?

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by Christopher Gates on Sep 6, 2010 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions

There's a pretty big drop in points after the top 4 TEs are gone too.

Good way to give 4-5 teams a position of weakness that they can’t really fix.

by CanadianViking on Sep 6, 2010 4:41 PM CDT up reply actions

I think there are 7 pretty good ones this year. Add to my above post Witten, Gonzo, and Celek.

by Galkuris on Sep 7, 2010 10:36 AM CDT up reply actions

Below post actually.

by Galkuris on Sep 7, 2010 10:37 AM CDT up reply actions

I think the two he is talking about is Clark and Gates – but either way as much as I’d like to see him reach this tier Shiancoe does not belong with the names Clark, Gates, Finley, and Davis

by Galkuris on Sep 7, 2010 10:36 AM CDT up reply actions

I agree with you.

Clark and Gates are kind of in a class by themselves for production and one or two of the other guys get up to third and fourth in a good year. After the first 5-7 are gone though I see a drop and then not much difference between 8-15.

by CanadianViking on Sep 7, 2010 12:53 PM CDT up reply actions

We do that-

You can start 2 TE. If your bold and those TE’s are PPR. Getting Whitten, Clark, Gates, Shank, Finley combo and 2 teams can block the others. I can’t remember off hand but I got 3 pretty good TE’s when that started to get involved in the TE shut out. I’m gonna check that. Nothing big but I figured they would help in the lockout.
Oh. I grabbed Miller, Carlson and Winslow in the 2nd teir when the others grabbed the big guns

by CitrusFLViking on Sep 6, 2010 7:45 PM CDT up reply actions

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by JMANN612 on Sep 6, 2010 1:53 PM CDT reply actions

This year...

I didn’t even draft a kicker or defense. We drafted before the last preseason games, so I figured I would just fill my roster with position players first. I evaluated my bench players after the preseason and decided who could get cut to make room for the defense and a kicker.

by jack_casse on Sep 7, 2010 11:45 AM CDT reply actions