Quarterback Drafting Rules: 26-27-60

by Christopher Gates on Jan 28, 2011 2:37 PM CST in 2011 NFL Draft

Over the past few days, a couple of FanPosts and FanShots have brought up some different criterion that various football gurus have used when selecting a quarterback during the draft. I was going to try to combine them all into one FanPost, but after further review, I think they need to be looked at separately, so that's what we'll go with. Yesterday, NMVike brought us the "26-27-60" rule, which says that a quarterback should score at least a 26 on the Wonderlic Test that's given at the Combine, start 27 games in college, and complete 60% of his passes.

The folks over at Hogs Haven have done the "heavy lifting" when it comes to figuring out these quarterback numbers. . .well, at least the starts and the completion percentage rules, since the Wonderlic hasn't been given yet. They have given us SB Nation bloggers permission to use those numbers, so we'll put those after the jump for your perusal.

Jake Locker, 6'2" - 228 lbs - (FAILED COMPL % MISERABLY)

Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
2007	Washington	Pac-10	FR	QB	155	328	47.3	2062	6.3	5.1	14	15	105.0
2008	Washington	Pac-10	SO	QB	50	93	53.8	512	5.5	5.7	1	0	103.6
2009	Washington	Pac-10	JR	QB	230	395	58.2	2800	7.1	6.9	21	11	129.7
2010	Washington	Pac-10	SR	QB	184	332	55.4	2265	6.8	6.6	17	9	124.2
Career					619	1148	53.9	7639	6.7	6.2	53	35	119.0

Colin Kaepernick, 6'4" - 225 lbs - (FAILED COMPL %)

Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
2007	Nevada	WAC	FR	QB	133	247	53.8	2175	8.8	9.8	19	3	150.8
2008	Nevada	WAC	SO	QB	208	383	54.3	2849	7.4	7.8	22	7	132.1
2009	Nevada	WAC	JR	QB	166	282	58.9	2052	7.3	7.7	20	6	139.1
2010	Nevada	WAC	SR	QB	233	359	64.9	3022	8.4	8.6	21	8	150.5
Career					740	1271	58.2	10098	7.9	8.4	82	24	142.5

Ricky Stanzi, 6'4" - 230 lbs - (FAILED COMPL %) - High Enough to Squeak Through, though

Year	Team	G	Cmp	Att	Comp %	Yds	Yd/A	TDs	Int	Sacked	Yds
2007	Iowa	2	0	4	0.0	0	0.0	0	1	0	0
2008	Iowa	13	150	254	59.1	1956	7.7	14	9	22	138
2009	Iowa	11	171	304	56.3	2417	8.0	17	15	23	175
2010	Iowa	13	221	345	64.1	3004	8.7	25	6	19	135
Career		39	542	907	59.8	7377	8.1	56	31	64	448

Christian Ponder - 6'2.5" - 222lbs - PASSED

Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
2007	Florida State	ACC	FR	QB	8	18	44.4	105	5.8	1.9	1	2	89.6
2008	Florida State	ACC	SO	QB	177	318	55.7	2006	6.3	5.3	14	13	115.0
2009	Florida State	ACC	JR	QB	227	330	68.8	2717	8.2	8.1	14	7	147.7
2010	Florida State	ACC	SR	QB	184	299	61.5	2044	6.8	7.0	20	8	135.7
Career					596	965	61.8	6872	7.1	6.7	49	30	132.1

Cam Newton - 6'6" - 250 lbs. - (FAILED - ONLY 14 GAMES PLAYED)

Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
2007	Florida	SEC	FR	QB	5	10	50.0	40	4.0	4.0	0	0	83.6
2008	Florida	SEC	SO	QB	1	2	50.0	14	7.0	7.0	0	0	108.8
2010	Auburn	SEC	JR	QB	185	280	66.1	2854	10.2	11.2	30	7	182.0
Career	Overall				191	292	65.4	2908	10.0	10.9	30	7	178.2
	Florida				6	12	50.0	54	4.5	4.5	0	0	87.8
	Auburn				185	280	66.1	2854	10.2	11.2	30	7	182.0

Greg McElroy (ALA) - 6'2 - 222lbs - (PASSED)

Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
2007	Alabama	SEC	FR	QB	8	9	88.9	73	8.1	10.3	1	0	193.7
2008	Alabama	SEC	SO	QB	8	11	72.7	123	11.2	8.9	1	1	178.5
2009	Alabama	SEC	JR	QB	198	325	60.9	2508	7.7	8.2	17	4	140.5
2010	Alabama	SEC	SR	QB	222	313	70.9	2987	9.5	10.1	20	5	169.0
Career					436	658	66.3	5691	8.6	9.2	39	10	155.4

Andy Dalton (TCU) - 6'2" - 213 lbs - (PASSED)

Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
2007	TCU	MWC	FR	QB	222	371	59.8	2459	6.6	5.8	10	11	118.5
2008	TCU	MWC	SO	QB	182	307	59.3	2242	7.3	7.3	11	5	129.2
2009	TCU	MWC	JR	QB	199	323	61.6	2756	8.5	8.8	23	8	151.8
2010	TCU	MWC	SR	QB	209	316	66.1	2857	9.0	9.9	27	6	166.5
Career					812	1317	61.7	10314	7.8	7.9	71	30	140.7

Ryan Mallett - 6'6" - 238 lbs. (37 games) - (FAILED COMPL %)

Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
2007	Michigan	Big Ten	FR	QB	61	141	43.3	892	6.3	5.7	7	5	105.7
2009	Arkansas	SEC	SO	QB	225	403	55.8	3624	9.0	9.7	30	7	152.5
2010	Arkansas	SEC	JR	QB	266	411	64.7	3869	9.4	9.7	32	12	163.6
Career	Overall				552	955	57.8	8385	8.8	9.1	69	24	150.4
	Michigan				61	141	43.3	892	6.3	5.7	7	5	105.7
	Arkansas				491	814	60.3	7493	9.2	9.7	62	19	158.1

Blaine Gabbert - 6'5" - 235 lbs (29 games) - PASSED

Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
2008	Missouri	Big 12	FR	QB	5	13	38.5	43	3.3	3.3	0	0	66.2
2009	Missouri	Big 12	SO	QB	262	445	58.9	3593	8.1	8.2	24	9	140.5
2010	Missouri	Big 12	JR	QB	301	475	63.4	3186	6.7	6.5	16	9	127.0
Career					568	933	60.9	6822	7.3	7.3	40	18	132.6

So, out of nine bigger name quarterback prospects, only four of them. . .Gabbert, Dalton, Ponder, and McElroy. . .passed according to the 26-27-60 standard (Wonderlic scores pending, of course). Gabbert is thought to be, possibly, the top quarterback prospect in the draft since he's declared early, Dalton and Ponder have been mentioned in the second or third round range, and McElroy has been bandied about as a mid-round prospect at this point.

I understand that these rules aren't the be all and the end all of drafting a quarterback. There are some quarterbacks that didn't meet these criteria that have gone on to NFL success. . .most notably Brett Favre, Donovan McNabb, and Ben Roethlisberger (all of whom scored too low on the Wonderlic test). But it's a pretty good starting point, if nothing else.

In the next day or two, we'll measure these same quarterbacks by another set of quarterbacking rules, those set forth by one of the preeminent team builders of our time, Bill Parcells.

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Comments

All of these rules should be taken with a grain of salt. They all try to correlate college stats with future NFL success when college stats have no relevance to NFL success because they are all relative to the different offensive systems each QB ran in college.
Take Gabbert for instance. He has completed 60% of his passes, but the offense he ran called for a majority of his passes to be completed behind the line of scrimmage. How many NFL teams run offenses like that? Going with none. While there are a few offenses that like to feature screens and the like, none used them as the majority of their passing calls, even Green Bay without its run game. How then does his completion % correlate to his NFL success? It doesn’t, it just means he was successful for what he was asked to do in college and there are plenty of quarterbacks that were statistically good in college and did nothing in the pros. The NCAA record book is filled with them.
This isn’t to pick on Gabbert or make any claims that he can’t or won’t be good in the NFL, but using systems that rely solely on statistical production without all the participants playing on the same field, under the same conditions, you will never get an accurate answer. That is why you find just as many success stories that go against these lines of thinking as those that work with it.

by Josh_D on Jan 28, 2011 3:38 PM CST reply actions

in response to that

(and i know this isn’t going to be a popular view) but stanzi ran a pro-style offense at iowa, and quite well. the one thing i like about stanzi is his memory. by that, i mean the kid can throw interceptions and still win games by coming back the next series and forget that he threw an interception and run an efficient offense the next series with few ill effects. that, and he loves ’Merica, baby!!

I piss people off on a fairly regular basis. I cherish my right to speak my mind, whether I sound like an uneducated savage or not. I've never been accused of keeping what I think a secret, nor will I ever. Don't like it? I don't care.

by IABerserker1 on Jan 28, 2011 3:43 PM CST up reply actions

Low quality opponents, far too many interceptions thrown.

And if he’s high enough to “squeak through” it seems entirely arbitrary that Colin Kaepernick, who had a higher Comp Percentage his senior year than ANY of Stanzi’s, should be marked simply ‘failed.’

Taking this for all 4 years only manages to punish the 4 year starters, IMHO. Which is the exact opposite of what it should do.

It does send up a red flag with me on Locker, because his Comp percentage never improved. But taking unequal samples and comparing them like for like doesn’t work.

by Shawn Gillogly on Jan 28, 2011 4:06 PM CST up reply actions

If Stanzi played against "low quality opponents..."

What do you call the teams that Kaepernick faced (aside from Boise St.)?

"I am patient with stupidity but not with those who are proud of it."

by NMVike on Jan 28, 2011 4:12 PM CST up reply actions

Aside from a Boise State every season

is a pretty big aside. Better than anyone Stanzi played, ever. He played BC and won, that’s not a chopped liver bowl opponent either. And the Little 10 hasn’t exactly demonstrated non-Conference supremacy…regular season or Bowl season…the past 4 years.

by Shawn Gillogly on Jan 28, 2011 5:12 PM CST up reply actions

Iowa has a pretty good record the last few years in big games, like the bowls

The rest of the BigTen fails to show up sometimes but Iowa fairs well. Besides the ability to lose games they should win, normally lies on Ferentz. The guy doesn’t have a kill button. He plays to not lose when they get the lead and it backfires. Too frequently he prepares his team to the perceived level of his opposition so when they come out and play better, he doesn’t have his squad prepared properly. Stanzi simply needs to find a balance between his Junior year attitude and his Senior year.

by AlldayFurore on Jan 28, 2011 5:42 PM CST up reply actions

Single individual game, maybe

but I won’t concede Ohio State in that argument, though. Overall schedule? Not even close. Stanzi played against better opponenrts week in and week out than Kaepernick ever saw.

The Daily Norseman
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by Ted Glover on Jan 28, 2011 6:25 PM CST up reply actions

I don't buy that.

The Little 10 just isn’t…that…good.

Quality, I don’t see any evidence it’s any better than the better non-AQ conferences. Adding Nebraska helps. But Nebraska isn’t an elite Big 12 team right now even.

On performance in non-con games over the past 4 years, you have no grounds to say the WAC is weaker than the Big 10. Statistically nil difference.

Now take into account that teams run away from playing Boise in non-con games…

by Shawn Gillogly on Jan 28, 2011 6:34 PM CST up reply actions

If you want to say the Big-10 doesn't have any good teams

That is fine. That’s your opinion. Who am I to wake you up? To say that Stanzi didn’t play against better Defenses? That’s a little misguided. I think Kaepernik will know zilch about an offense once he gets into the NFL. Stanzi will have run virtually the same offense for over three years. Iowa runs, runs, passes. That doesn’t sound like the Vikes? It depends on our coaching staff and what they’re looking for in a QB. You look at Kaepernik’s stats from this year and they’re awesome, but the reason this grading system takes into account the # of games started? Experience!

by DM_Purp on Jan 29, 2011 10:45 AM CST up reply actions

oops

got the last part confused w/ another player. For some reason, I assumed Kaepernik was DQ’d because of # of starts because i’ve never heard of the guy up until this year. I do have to agree with you and the improvement part of his game and the steady increase in comp%. To me, that shows he’s probably a hard worker and keeps improving his game. I think that means a lot in the NFL. That’s actually one of the points i can make about stanzi. He improved the whole way and seemed to really grasp what was going on by his Sr year. And their team was worse this year than last and he put up better #s. Look, I’m not saying stanzi is going to be a HOF QB or anything, but I just think he would be more prepared and easier transition to the NFL that Kap. I’m obviously a huge iowa homer so I’m biased, but I think some of the stats speak for themself. If you would have asked me last year, I would have told you Stanzi would have never been this good, but he learned how to stop forcing balls and play a little smarter and his turnovers bottomed out.

by DM_Purp on Jan 29, 2011 11:05 AM CST up reply actions

Bring Boise into...

Kinnick any time. Would love it, in fact. Didn’t Michigan St. just sign a 10 year deal with Boise?

by BD_Hawkeyes on Jan 29, 2011 11:00 AM CST up reply actions

The SEC has a leg up on the Big Ten, I'll give you that

But trying to say that the WAC is better than the Big Ten is one of the more laughable arguments I’ve read. And using a non-conference schedule as your measuring stick is not what I would use.

If we’re talking about NFL-level competition, let’s look at the amount of guys drafted, since you know, that would be NFL-level competition.

Just in the 2010 draft, the Big Ten had 33 players drafted, the WAC had 5.

2009: Big Ten 28, WAC 10. Congratulations on tying the MAC and coming in behind the Mountain West.

2008: 28/8.

I could go on and on, but really, if you want to think that CK faced better quality, NFL caliber talent week in and week out based on the WAC’s bad ass noncon schedule, please feel free to do so.

The Daily Norseman
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SB Nation Minnesota

See, you think I give a shit. Wrong. In fact, while you talk, I’m thinking; How can I give less of shit? That’s why I look interested."

by Ted Glover on Jan 29, 2011 11:36 AM CST up reply actions

Agreed Ted...

This is the point I’ve been trying to make all week with Stanzi. I don’t know how anyone can say that Kaepernick ever saw better competition. He does need to find a balance between his last two years, and then we’re looking at a QB who has the goods.

by BD_Hawkeyes on Jan 29, 2011 10:58 AM CST up reply actions

Hmmm...

WAC
Boise St.
Fresno St.
Hawaii
Idaho
Louisianna Tech
San Jose St.
Nevada
New Mexico St.
Utah St.

vs
Big 10
Ohio St.
Penn St.
Wisconsin
Michigan
Michigan St.
Purdue
Iowa
Minnesota
Northwestern
Illinios
Indiana

"I am patient with stupidity but not with those who are proud of it."

by NMVike on Jan 29, 2011 10:31 AM CST up reply actions

Youre trying to have it both ways

He played BC and won, that’s not a chopped liver bowl opponent either.

On another thread you counted Boston College’s schedule as a strike against Anthony Castonzo.

I don’t buy Castonzo at all (weak competition).

Now you’re trying to use one game versus Boston College as a good measuring stick for Colin Kaepernick. Seems a little illogical and contradictory to me.

"I am patient with stupidity but not with those who are proud of it."

by NMVike on Jan 29, 2011 12:08 PM CST up reply actions

I didn't say BC is a bad team

I said he played against generally inferior competition. That’s true.

It’s not a ‘both ways’ statement because I never said BC was bad. They were at least as good a bowl opponent as most of the teams the Little 10 stunk up the field against.

by Shawn Gillogly on Jan 29, 2011 3:30 PM CST up reply actions

The thing about Kaepernick I like

Is that his completion percentage rose every single year

From freshman to sophomore year – .5%
Sophomore to junior year – 4.6%
Junior to senior year – 6%

Agree with everything else that while this is another (albeit a pretty nice) system of evaluating quarterbacks, but you can use pick and choose the stats you like to paint the best picture of the quarterback you’re gunning for.

For example, do I think a McElroy or a Stanzi will ever make it past backup QB/occaissional starter range in the NFL? Nope, but based on these stats the Vikes would be better served to pick up one of those guys over a Newton, Locker, or Kaepernick.

by why am i in omaha on Jan 28, 2011 4:25 PM CST up reply actions

I agree.

Like I said, while I think 20 starts is a good minimum to judge a guy on. I don’t think you can compare 20 games worth of stats vs 40 games as like for like, especially give we know a player will grow from Freshman to Junior years.

by Shawn Gillogly on Jan 28, 2011 5:14 PM CST up reply actions

Perhaps the solution

is to look at the final 27 starts of a player. If 27 is the magic number for minimum starts, looking at the final 27 should treat all of those players more equally.

"Believe me Delmar, woman is the most fiendish instrument of torture ever devised to bedevil the days of man."

by Ben T on Jan 28, 2011 5:29 PM CST up reply actions

27 isn’t a magical number. Its simply a number that if a QB starts more than one year, he is likely to achieve. If a QB only plays two years, but goes to a bowl game each year, there is 26 games, but wouldn’t qualify for this particular “rule of thumb”. Or they could start 7 games a season over 4 years and achieve it while having it also affect the other measurements for 26-27-60. Playing less games can drastically swing comp % in either direction since they would attempt so many fewer passes than QBs who played every game for 4 years (which raises more questions i.e. would the QB even be asked to throw as much as he would at another school? in the NFL? How do you compare a 4 year starter to a sporadic, but talented starter?). Its simply a number that if a QB starts more than one year, he is likely to achieve. Again, its trying to use statistics to explain things that can’t be quantified.

by Josh_D on Jan 28, 2011 7:00 PM CST up reply actions

I don't disagree

I was merely stating that it was arbitrary to say Stanzi “squeaked through” and CK didn’t when Stanzi started 1 fewer season, effectively punishing Kaepernick for being a 4 yr starter (something a scout would mark him higher for). And the 27 game metric as a whole, if taken as an average of each QBs entire career, rewards players who didn’t have as many starts.

So I’m just saying judge like for like as much as possible. When you do, both Mallet and CK move into the “pass” category.

by Shawn Gillogly on Jan 28, 2011 9:00 PM CST up reply actions

So then it's a question of consistency vs steady improvement?

Consistency in a much tougher conference, with higher stakes, while running a pro-style offense, playing with and against future pro players.
vs
Steady improvement through a much easier schedule, in an offense that is less developmental for the NFL, against future car salesmen (not that there’s anything wrong with that) 99% of the time.

"I am patient with stupidity but not with those who are proud of it."

by NMVike on Jan 29, 2011 10:35 AM CST up reply actions

I don't buy the Big 10 is a 'much tougher conference'

It’s certainly not the SEC. So this idea that he’s been facing guys who will play on Sunday and CK hasn’t…. meh. We’re not in the 50s anymore. When the conference can win over half its bowl games annually, start woofing about how good they are.

And again, trying to say Boise has “used car salesmen” on defense? Nope, they put in NFL players every year. They will this year too.

by Shawn Gillogly on Jan 29, 2011 11:30 AM CST up reply actions

I never said that the Big 10 is as tough as the SEC...

I never even mentioned the SEC. But the Big 10 is much closer to the SEC than the WAC is to the Big 10.

And I’m giving you Boise St. I have a lot of respect for Coach Peterson and his program. But that’s only 1 game per year in which Kaepernick faced a quality defense. Stanzi has played in front of 100,000 plus fans in games with a lot on the line, multiple times in his career. It’s not even close.

CK is a project. His throwing motion is very, very raw. That extra .5 seconds that his delivery takes will cost him mightily at the next level. No way should he be considered anything but a developmental project.

"I am patient with stupidity but not with those who are proud of it."

by NMVike on Jan 29, 2011 11:41 AM CST up reply actions

I agree with that

But to be fair. The one thing i’ve been hearing from the Sr bowl practices and workouts leading up to it is that Stanzi’s footwork isn’t very good which i can see. I can’t, with an open mind and a straight face, say that Stanzi is an instant starter or anything but a work in progress. He is definitely a risk, but I think he’s got high rewards. Footwork? That’s all I’ve heard. If anyone’s heard anything else, hit me up, but he’s got a strong arm, average to slightly below average mobility(good movement in pocket though, just not a runner), his accuracy is something that’s gotten better over the year. I would label him a little better than average. He’s not drew brees or anything, but improving. He’s shown some resillience with a few comebacks already. It was mentioned sooner, but his unique ability to completely get over any mistakes he’s made and move forward is amazing.

Quick story

Stanzi threw four interceptions in the third quarter alone on a windy day in Iowa City, and Indiana (4-5, 1-4) took a 24-14 lead into the fourth.
Stanzi’s mental toughness has long been defended by Ferentz, and he showed why at the start of the fourth quarter. He hit McNutt on a play-action rollout for what turned out to be the fourth-longest pass play in Iowa history. Johnson-Koulianos did most of the work on the other long touchdown, weaving his way through the Indiana secondary.
‘’No matter what happens, he keeps on playing,’’ Ferentz said of Stanzi, who threw for a career-high 337 yards. ‘’If there’s one thing I can say about Rick, it’s resiliency. He’s done a great job of leading our football team.’’

Final Score: 42-24
R. Stanzi (IOWA) – 337 YDS, 2 TD, 5 INT
After 4 picks in the 4th he ends up blowing out the other team w/ 2 TDs in the 4th. As bad as it was, it was all the better late in the game. I think this games tells the most about what type of person/player he is. Other game to check out some highlights on: Mich State ’09. The final drive was SICK

by DM_Purp on Jan 29, 2011 12:58 PM CST up reply actions

I like the final 27 starts approach

It removes the stats from freshman season for 4 year starters, yet it still provides enough data to investigate.

"I am patient with stupidity but not with those who are proud of it."

by NMVike on Jan 29, 2011 11:52 AM CST up reply actions

And then regress from junior to senior year!

Look at:

Brian Brohm (Louisville) – last year or two years ago
Jake Locker (Washington) – this year
Andrew Luck (Stanford) – next year. Count it.

by why am i in omaha on Jan 28, 2011 5:30 PM CST up reply actions

I think regression is a fair concern when it happens.

And I think 27 is a fair sampling size across the board. I’m just saying that a couple of the above QBs were punished for being 3 and 4 year starters.

by Shawn Gillogly on Jan 28, 2011 6:36 PM CST up reply actions

Here's another formula to rate college QB's.

I found this on an old discussion group. The ESPN link no longer works. I tried to find this on the ESPN website but i did not succeed. It is a few years old and I have not yet rated this years crop of potential draftees. I just found this interesting as it gives us a possible way to compare QB’s while taking into account the level of competition.

And remember: It is ESPN so take it with a grain of salt.

ESPN.com posted:

The formula takes into account three statistics: Career starts, completion percentage and touchdown-interception ratio. The theory is that experience, accuracy and production versus mistakes can provide substantive indicators for college quarterbacks.

Formula Explanation
ESPN Research developed this formula to measure quarterbacks relative to a baseline completion percentage of 60 and a touchdown-interception ratio of 2.25. The multipliers allow each figure to have equal weight with career starts, which provides an important measure of experience.
The total score is the sum of the three adjusted figures.

The separate parameters for BCS and non-BCS quarterbacks help level the statistical playing field. They are based on the assumption that NFL-caliber quarterbacks playing against non-BCS opponents are going to have inflated numbers.

For BCS quarterbacks
(Career Starts x 0.5) + [(Career completion pct. – 60)x5] +[(Career touchdown-INT ratio – 2.25)x10]

For non-BCS quarterbacks
(Career Starts x 0.5) + [(Career completion pct. – 60)x2.5] + [(Career touchdown-INT Ratio – 2.25)x5]

To test the formula, ESPN Research plugged in the 31 quarterbacks taken in the first round over the past 12 drafts, dating back to 1997. The results are below.

You’ll see the quarterbacks broken into three categories. If their college statistics translated into a value of 20 or more, there was a strong likelihood for success. (Alex Smith and Tim Couch notwithstanding.) A value between 1 and 19 essentially meant “iffy.”

But the most revealing category were those quarterbacks who finished with a value of 0 or less. Every one of them failed as NFL quarterbacks. Take a look:

Scores of First-Round Quarterbacks, 1997-2008

Group I: Strong likelihood of success
Player School Draft year Score
Matt Leinart USC 2006 64.04
Philip Rivers NC State 2004 48.44
Tim Couch Kentucky 1999 47.64
Alex Smith Utah 2005 44.88
Aaron Rodgers California 2005 40.58
Peyton Manning Tennessee 1998 39.47
Jason Campbell Auburn 2005 38.75
Byron Leftwich Marshall 2003 36.39
Ben Roethlisberger Miami (Ohio) 2004 33.85
Chad Pennington Marshall 2000 33.53
Daunte Culpepper Central Florida 1999 30.00
David Carr Fresno State 2002 23.97
Joe Flacco Delaware 2008 23.92
Eli Manning Ole Miss 2004 23.14
Donovan McNabb Syracuse 1999 21.62

Group II: Hit-or-Miss
Player School Draft year Score
Brady Quinn Notre Dame 2007 18.93
JaMarcus Russell LSU 2007 18.64
Rex Grossman Florida 2003 18.39
Vince Young Texas 2006 18.21
Carson Palmer USC 2003 16.35
Matt Ryan Boston College 2008 9.14
Patrick Ramsey Tulane 2002 9.06
J.P. Losman Tulane 2004 7.86
Jay Cutler Vanderbilt 2006 2.39

Group III: Busts
Player School Draft year Score
Akili Smith Oregon 1999 0.00
Cade McNown UCLA 1999 -6.41
Joey Harrington Oregon 2002 -6.85
Michael Vick Virginia Tech 2001 -11.32
Ryan Leaf Washington St. 1998 -16.92
Jim Druckenmiller Virginia Tech 1997 -20.25
Kyle Boller California 2003 -50.67

Stafford scored a -4.45, putting him in unflattering surroundings to say the least. You never want to be on a list that includes Jim Druckenmiller and Akili Smith. Stafford’s career completion percentage of 57.1 percent and his touchdown-interception ratio of 1.55 were primarily responsible for his poor showing. That left him rated well below USC quarterback Mark Sanchez and slightly behind Kansas State’s Josh Freeman.

Scores for 2009 Likely First-Round Quarterbacks
Player School Score
Mark Sanchez USC 32.63
Josh Freeman Kansas State 1.94
Matthew Stafford Georgia -4.55

Your fantasy football expert since Jerry Rice's rookie year.

by Odin on Jan 28, 2011 10:20 PM CST reply actions

Here's my statistic: YEE HAW!

I called it with Dan Marino in 1983. Who did the Vikings draft? Joey Browner.

I called it with Danny Valencia this year…said he was going to bat over .300 and be a star at third.

Now I’m calling it for Jake Locker. Three years hence, he’ll be rated at least even with Aaron Rogers.

Here’s to using my eyeballs, YEE HAW!

by jimbo55403 on Jan 29, 2011 1:43 AM CST reply actions

thats only 3 right out of 28 years

How many misses did you have during that stretch? :-)

"I am patient with stupidity but not with those who are proud of it."

by NMVike on Jan 29, 2011 10:24 AM CST up reply actions

All of these stat test have merit.

But none tell the important stat of “heart measurement”.
Is the QB the kind of guy for which 10 other players will give every ounce of energy.
Is he the guy with “it”.
Can he move the chains in crunch time?

I don’t know of the availability of game winning drive stats for college games like there is for the NFL. But that would be interesting.

IT IS TIME TO DO WHAT IT TAKES TO DRAFT A FRANCHISE QUARTERBACK.
No more old guys. No more excuses. No more passing up our own great drafted quarterback.

by lifelongvike on Jan 29, 2011 6:44 AM CST reply actions

The Tebow Effect

NICE!!!

by DM_Purp on Jan 29, 2011 11:15 AM CST up reply actions

I agree intangibles matter.

I’ve said that before too.

by Shawn Gillogly on Jan 29, 2011 11:31 AM CST up reply actions

Oh yeah

Especially for a QB. Not only is his skill set the most vital in a close game, but the look on his teammates faces will tell you exactly what kind of leader he is. No faith in a QB. Might as well pack it in. Saw that when Tjack played against the Pats.

by DM_Purp on Jan 29, 2011 11:48 AM CST up reply actions

That's what the interviews are for...

I don’t think there is going to be a stat or set of stats to measure heart. Perhaps you can observe it from seeing the reaction of his teammates — I think there is something to that. But otherwise I think the coaches just need to interview the prospects and use their best judgement.

"Believe me Delmar, woman is the most fiendish instrument of torture ever devised to bedevil the days of man."

by Ben T on Jan 30, 2011 8:22 AM CST up reply actions