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Week 6 Preview: Let The Battle For The Basement Begin

Look for Lorenzo Booker to be the X-factor on Sunday night. Hmm, I wonder who might fill that role for the Bears...

All right! A prime time match-up against a bitter division rival! Let's flash forward to Sunday night's broadcast on NBC, as Al Michaels throws it to Faith Hill for her weekly theme song (for the tune to sing along, click here):

All right, Sunday night, wait--oh no!
Turn off the lights on this embarrassing show
Get on your feet, just to hit the commode,
Hey Jack, it's a fact, the bad game's in town
The Vikings and Bears, too bad we can't flex out
The stadium's booing, time to break out the frowns
The NFL's worst have come to play
For every fan there's one thing left to sayyyeeyeeyeeyeeyyyeyyyy...

We've been hatin' all day for Sunday night
The rough and the tough are nowhere in sight
The last one standing probably won't be in white
'Cause I've been hatin' all day for Sunday night!

Sunday night football on NBC,
Al and Chris try not to puke on TV,
America's ready to set their worst teams free,
Because the NFL sucks tonight on NBC!

Yep, that's what it has come to for the Bears and Vikings after just five weeks. Both teams are looking up at not one but two undefeated teams in their own division while their teams sit in shambles. I'm guessing this isn't exactly what the NBC execs had in mind when they made the schedule.

What we do have in mind is breaking down a game that probably won't mean much in the playoff race but still holds very important for two fan bases. Nobody wants to be in last place after six weeks, which is exactly what the loser of this contest will be. This season, I've already previewed games by making marriage analogies, comparing the Vikings to The Godfather, and even holding a roast. This week, I'm going to something really crazy: a position-by-position breakdown of each team! Let's start with the most important position.

Quarterback: Ours has sucked. Hard. Unless we see Christian Ponder some time during the game, that probably won't change. Jay Cutler is still a whiny little crybaby, but at least he's still a talented whiny little crybaby that can make throws if he has time. Big advantage: Bears.

Star-divide

Offensive Line: Does anyone remember the old Nintendo game Dragon Warrior? Both offensive lines offer about as much protection as the Leather Armor did in that game. The Vikings' O-line showed some improvement last week, but I want to see what they do against a real defense before giving them any credit. Advantage: Neither.

Chicago_bears_v_minnesota_vikings_efqcjfjnwo1l_medium

Hey Jay: "Thou art dead."

Running Backs: The Vikings win this one against any team, even if Matt Forte is having a banner year. I suspect that both front sevens will game plan to stop the running game, but I think both will find some success here and there. Advantage: Vikings.

Wide Receivers: The Bears keep giving the Vikings their old wide receivers like they were syphilis, and we keep "contracting" them. (See what I did there?) Unfortunately for Chicago, they keep picking up replacement wide receivers that couldn't catch the clap from an infected toilet seat. (Boom! Back-to-back STD jokes!) Minnesota's wide receivers haven't been anything to write home about, mostly because their quarterback couldn't hit the broad side of a barn with another broad side of a barn. But on the other hand, when your running back is by far your best receiver statistically, that ain't good either. Advantage: Neither.

Tight Ends: Quick! Who's the Bears' starting tight end? No, Greg Olsen plays for Carolina now. I rest my case. Advantage: Vikings.

Defensive Line: Hey, something each team can finally be proud of! I wonder what the NFL record for total sacks in a single game is... Slight advantage: Vikings, especially if Julius Peppers is banged up.

Linebackers: I've enjoyed what the Law Firm of Henderson, Henderson, and Greenway has done so far, but Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs are still two of the best in the business. Advantage: Bears.

Defensive Backs: It doesn't sound like Antoine Winfield will play for the second consecutive game (neck), and the Bears might bench both of their starting safeties (injury, general ineptitude). If either team had a passing attack, this would probably be a bigger area of concern. Advantage: Neither, yet again.

Special teams/X-factor: It sounds like Lorenzo Booker is going to be more involved in the game plan this week and I'm all for it. The guy is a Darren Sproles doppelganger. He's the only guy that makes me genuinely excited every time he touches the ball outside of AP, whether it's on a kick return or flying out of the backfield. For the Bears, we know all too well about their X-factor. Devin Hester always seems to find a way to find the end zone at a crucial time against the Vikes. He's the Skeletor to Chris Kluwe's He-Man.

And oh yeah, there's one more really important X-factor: the Vikings can't win in Chicago. They've won exactly once at Soldier Field in the last decade, and that one 3-point victory was because AP went nuts for 224 yards and 3 touchdowns (not to mention 83 additional yards by Chester Taylor). If the Vikings win on Sunday, I think it will be a lot like the 2007 victory, because Tarvaris Jackson completed only nine passes that day. (Remind you of anyone?) Unfortunately I don't think we can depend on back-to-back other-worldly performances by Peterson; remember, he had only 51 yards on 17 carries in Chicago last year. Which means we'll probably remain in the NFC North basement unless Donovan McNabb can save us. Riiiiiight. Overwhelming advantage: Bears.

Prediction: Bears 24, Vikings 20

Here are the rest of my (pretty darn bad thus far) Week 6 NFL picks (home teams in ALL CAPS):

FALCONS over Panthers: If you would have told Bears fans before the season that they'd be tied with Atlanta after five weeks, they probably would have been excited. SUCKERS!

GIANTS over Bills: I'd like to take the time to thank Eli Manning for eliminating roughly 90% of the remaining Survivor Pool picks across the country with that horrendous pick-six at the end of the game against Seattle. The G-Men seem to be the ultimate "play to the level of their competition" team--since the Bills are good, I expect New York to play well.

BENGALS over Colts: Cincy is winning with solid defense and a rookie quarterback that manages the game and does just enough to give his team a chance every week. TOO BAD WE DON'T HAVE THAT IN MINNESOTA!!

LIONS over 49ers: I must have missed Barry Sanders and Jerry Rice coming out of retirement, because that's my only explanation for the combined 9-1 record of these two teams.

PACKERS over Rams: Hey St. Louis! Hope you enjoyed your bye week! Because here comes an old-fashioned ass kicking!

Eagles over REDSKINS: If you would have told me before the season that the Vikings would have the same record as the Eagles after five weeks, I would have been pretty happy. SUCKERS! Anyway, I had a good joke for this game, but I gave it to Andy Reid towards the end of a half. He had no idea what to do with it and the joke just ended pissing everyone off. If me picking the Eagles keeps resulting in them losing every week, so be it. I'll sacrifice my stats for the good of the league.

STEELERS over Jaguars: Do you think Maurice Jones-Drew is more interested in his fantasy team (he always has himself on his fantasy team) than he is in his real team at this point? I would be. "Oh well, we lost by 10 at home to the Bengals. But I still got 14.5 points and I have Rodgers as my quarterback!"

RAIDERS over Browns: The Raiders are another classic "play to the level of their competition" team, which means the Browns could come in and upset Oakland coming off their bye week. But I'm not picking against the ghost of Al Davis for a while, until I'm absolutely positive he isn't coming back as a zombie. (What?! Too soon?)

RAVENS over Texans: Houston is just too banged up. And since I have nothing left to say, here's your Gratuitous Picture of the Week!

Ravens-trio_medium

Vital parts of Baltimore's success this year.

PATRIOTS over Cowboys: My Survivor Pool pick of the week, if Eli didn't already ruin yours. Tom Brady hasn't lost at home in the regular season since two baby mommas ago, so I'll stick with tradition here.

Saints over BUCCANEERS: I think the Bucs will react a lot like the Chiefs did after their own 48-3 loss earlier in the year: lose to a better team in a surprisingly close game.

JETS over Dolphins: Unless Mark Sanchez throws more TD passes to Dolphins players than Matt Moore does (entirely possible), this one won't be close.

Last week: 7-6
Season so far: 45-32

Comment 39 comments  |  1 recs  | 

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First! Just for you Chris

And I agree with your PIcks..except flip flop the vikes and bears..what’s the point of drinking the Purple Koolaid if there isn’t grain alcohol in it? Riot Punch FTW!

by PURPpplEATER on Oct 14, 2011 8:21 AM CDT via mobile reply actions  

I might be a glutton for punishment but I think the Vikes take this one.

The Bears have looked like they have not fight in them, they look lifeless. The Vikings have been losing but they seem to always be scrapping and look to have life outside of McNabb. The Vikes have just found ways to lose.

"I have come to believe that a great teacher is a great artist
and that there are as few as there are any other great artists.
Teaching might even be the greatest of the arts
since the medium is the human mind and spirit."

by Edgecrusher71 on Oct 14, 2011 10:05 AM CDT up reply actions  

As a lions fan I agree

I believe you guys are going to thump them. When we played you it was scary and felt we had to earn every bit of yard we got, it was tuff. when we played the bears it was like ya ok were playing a soft team and we could have blown the game out if we wanted to. you guys will win.

by sandvet on Oct 14, 2011 10:20 AM CDT up reply actions  

BTW

your DEFF. line is going to kill cutler, that was like playing a high school D line

by sandvet on Oct 14, 2011 10:21 AM CDT up reply actions  

I doubt it

Just because you guys embarassed them so bad on monday. They made some changes. I’m sure we’ll pressure Cutler a lot, but I doubt we’ll have a sack hay-day. They’re not going to let him get smacked around twice in as many weeks. I’m predicting a BUNCH of screens.

by REVENGE4KLUWE on Oct 15, 2011 11:46 AM CDT up reply actions  

The Vikings will smack the Bears

Jay Cutler is finally getting the punishment he deserves for being a brat with my Broncos

Brad James

Follow me on Twitter

With Coach Zorro on our side, we will slice opponents to ribbons. Tim Tebow gives me hope and I already have faith and charity in my heart! I see a propitious future rife with Lombardis for our Broncos!

by the new Bradfather on Oct 15, 2011 12:18 AM CDT up reply actions  

Good jeebers man!

Eric wrote this article. The authors name is generally right under the title. He also is the one who does the picks every week and has for as long as I’ve been here.I have a feeling that he read this and just shrugged it off, but since you are a multiple offender in doing this I’d like to politely say that that’s a tad bit rude.

"Show me a hero, and I will write you a tragedy." - F. Scott Fitzgerald

by abba7 on Oct 15, 2011 3:24 AM CDT up reply actions  

That depends,

what’ll she be wearing?

"Let's go our there, and stick our fists through their ribcages, rip our their hearts, eat them, and shit them back out on the field!!" - Blue Mountain State

by Alittlemore_cowbell on Oct 14, 2011 8:26 AM CDT up reply actions  

probably the black leather suit

Brad James

Follow me on Twitter

With Coach Zorro on our side, we will slice opponents to ribbons. Tim Tebow gives me hope and I already have faith and charity in my heart! I see a propitious future rife with Lombardis for our Broncos!

by the new Bradfather on Oct 15, 2011 12:18 AM CDT up reply actions  

Seriously?

Eric, I get that you have an agenda and don’t like McNabb, but be fair, Cutler sucks too, and the Bears DO NOT have a Big Advantage at QB. Consider the numbers:

Total Yards / Completion % / Touch Downs / Interceptions / Attempts / Fumbles Lost / Attempts per Game

Cutler: 1209 / 58.6 / 6 / 4 / 169 / 1 / 33.8
McNabb: 849 / 56.8 / 4 / 2 / 132 / 0 / 26.4

Now look at the numbers normalized to 100 attempts:

Cutler: 715 / 58.6 / 3.55 / 2.37 / 100 / 0.59 / NA
McNabb: 569 / 56.8 / 3.03 / 1.52 / 100 / 0.00 / NA

Any coach will tell you that completion percentage is the most important QB statistic, and Cutler and McNabb are basically equal. Yes, Cutler has a significant edge in yards, and a slight edge in TDs, but McNabb has a 2:1 edge in turnovers (also one of the most significant statistics to coaches everywhere).

The lack of passing attempts is what is really holding McNabb’s numbers down. Consider this stat:

QB Pass Attempts + Top RB Rush Attempts

Cutler (169) + Forte (82) = 251 (50.2 per game)
McNabb (132) + Peterson (110) = 242 (48.4 per game)

The Vikings are simply running the ball more than the Bears and Cutler sucks as much as McNabb.

by Alchemist1342 on Oct 14, 2011 9:24 AM CDT reply actions   1 recs

Most important stat

The most important stat period is yards gained per pass attempt. Way more important than comp. Pctg. It has an 82% correlation to who wins each game. Obviously it’s made up of multiple factors – but so is comp pctg. Brady and Karen Rodgers are tied for best in NFL and Donny is #27. That’s why LF is begging him to let it fly.

by Siegfried59 on Oct 14, 2011 11:35 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions  

Silly

We all know what stat makes a QB stand out….and is the best indicator of performance is what color of pajamas did the qb wear the night before and did he get up on the north side of the bed or not. Also if he wears high tops. And their color.

If yards gained per pass attempt was the most important stat, then we wouldn’t have gotten killed giving up short passes in the secondary. And when you are evaluating qb’s, Alchemist is correct, you have to look at a gambit of stats, not just one. Based off your yards gained per pass attempt, a qb that throws the ball out of bounds often to avoid sacks will have a smaller percentage compared to qb’s who take the sack. Yet, the throw away doesn’t give up field position or make yardage situations worse.

by Chris3 on Oct 14, 2011 2:14 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

Most important Stat..

McNabb SUCKS ASS!! I can’t believe that I convinced myself he could be decent for us.

14 halll of famers. Wait Cris Carter isn't in the Hall of Fame yet!? Wtf is wrong with these people!?

by Thor82 on Oct 14, 2011 2:17 PM CDT up reply actions  

You're using a couple of assumptions that are incorrect

Looking a at a multitude of stats is good, but Siegfried is right that the one stat that correlates best with future wins is YPA. If a QB pads this stat instead of tries to win the game, it’s like any other stat – meaningless. Sort of like McNabb’s approach to interceptions…

Taking the sack is counted as an attempt and negative yards, so that’s still a losing play. Better to get rid of it and net 0 yards on the attempt. And it turns out that short completion, high percentage plays have a higher payoff in the YPA stat because the low percentage high yardage plays are more likely to net 0 yards than 20. So yes, we would get killed giving up short passes in the secondary.

The top 5 QBs who have taken 75% of their snaps are ranked thusly by YPA:

1. Brady
2. Brees
3. Rodgers
4. Vick
5. Ryan

Top 5 QBs by completion percentage:

1. Rodgers
2. Brees
3. Brees
4. Rivers
5. Cassel

So they are obviously correlated – arguing that one is better than the other tends to discount the fact that they are intimately related. Personally, I’d rather have Mike Vick as a QB than Rivers or Cassel. Vick also has more receivers who have dropped passes than any other QB who has taken 75% of their team’s snaps except Andy Dalton and Colt McCoy.

To be completely honest, the YPA stat isn’t complete until it’s adjusted for defenses and interceptions (common practice is to count an interception as the same as a -25 yard pass). Most of the data that promote the YPA stat tend to take that practice into account, so promoting it by itself is not entirely accurate either. If one counter interceptions as -25 yards, then a different top 5 emerges:

1. Rodgers
2. Brady
3. Manning (Eli)
4. Schaub
5. Newton

I would intuitively be hesitant of this system because of how well these “losing” QBs are doing, but to be honest, Manning is having a pretty good year – 102.3 Passer Rating, 7th most in total yards, 11:5 TD/Int Ratio, and that all with the only ranking 17th in total attempts. We all know how well Cam Newton is doing and Matt Schaub has about as many attempts as Eli, and is ranked 9th in total pass yardage. A 92.5 passer rating isn’t bad, either. Really, I like any system that ranks Alex Smith well this year, and YPA and Adj YPA both put him near 7th. He might have been terrible last year, but he’s doing really well for himself this year.

One last thing – the fact that Cutler’s completion percentage is similar to McNabb’s I think has more to do with the fact that Cutler has so many more pressures, hits and sacks than McNabb.

by Arif Hasan on Oct 15, 2011 12:36 PM CDT up reply actions  

I would take Cutler as my QB over McNabb any day

And it pains me to say that, because I really do have a healthy dislike of Babyface.

I don’t think you can just narrow it down to 100 attempts either, that seems a little iffy to me to try and make a valid point. But by your numbers even, Cutler has an extra 150 yards on the same number of completions? That’s pretty big. I don’t think you can just ignore that.

 Cutler turns the ball over more which isn’t pretty, but he’s been sacked something like 18 times already and we’re just past a quarter of the season. So his line obviously isn’t giving him much protection and he has to rush his throws worse than McNabb does, who’s only been sacked 11 times. So, in worse pressure, he’s putting up better stats than McNabb is.

Not to mention, Cutler has an extra 11 passes for 1st downs. I’m not sure how many of those are on 3rd down, but we all know McNabb’s struggles to make those crucial 3rd down throws.

by REVENGE4KLUWE on Oct 15, 2011 12:04 PM CDT up reply actions  

Hey Eric, those lyrics are a little harsh. (but funny)

I’m looking forward to this game, just for the fact that I can watch it on network TV instead of streaming it.

I’m seeing progress, and with the possibility of Peppers being out, I think the Vikings take this one. Play two first halves in a row and it’s a blowout.

I agree with all your other picks except for Eagles over Redskins. Vick & Co. seem to be on a downward spirial. Maybe they’ll turn it around, but I’m betting they don’t.

Time you enjoy wasting, was not wasted. - John Lennon

by JethroBoViking on Oct 14, 2011 9:36 AM CDT reply actions  

No advantage at safety?

Are you kidding? Both Sanford and Abdullah are emerging as excellent safeties. Also, Chris Cook looks great on the left side; maybe his knee problems are finally behind him. If they’d play Marcus Sherels instead of Asher Allen at the other CB, they’d have one of the better defensive backfields in the league. Even so, the Vikings D is right now rounding into an excellent unit, far healthier than Chicago’s.

The problem for both teams is generating points with dysfunctional offenses. Cutler’s got nobody to throw to, and McNabb can’t throw deep. In a pass-happy league, both these teams are depending on RBs to get points. That might get boring, but both feature backs are fun to watch, and the Vikings have Booker and Harvin for more action. Other than that, it’s Hester vs. Sherels in the punt return game. Based on what they’ve done lately, Sherels measures up pretty well against Hester.

by jimbo92107 on Oct 14, 2011 9:50 AM CDT reply actions  

Hmmm....
they’d have one of the better defensive backfields in the league

=batshit insanity

the Vikings D is right now rounding into an excellent unit, far healthier than Chicago’s

=rational thought

Putting Ponder in isn't the question, it's the answer.
SKOL!!!

by DM_Purp on Oct 14, 2011 10:37 AM CDT up reply actions  

Agreed on both counts

Plus I probably should have given the Vikes a slight edge in the secondary with the Bears playing musical safeties. But like I said, I don’t think either team has a passing attack to take advantage of any weaknesses the respective secondaries may have.

by Eric J. Thompson on Oct 14, 2011 11:08 AM CDT up reply actions  

I wouldn't expect quite the same walk in the park

The Bears are certainly going to make some adjustments. Especially in the run game. Let’s not forget we don’t have a Megatron player for them to worry about.

by REVENGE4KLUWE on Oct 15, 2011 12:09 PM CDT up reply actions  

Donovan "The Ground Is My Friend" McNabb

One of two things are possible:

1) McNabb thinks he is playing basketball, so a bounce pass is a perfectly good way to get the ball to a receiver

2) McNabb thinks, or hallucinates, that the field actually has hands, so at this point of the season he has completed over 90% of his passes for untold yardage! Maybe if he throws it into the endzone it will count as a touchdown!

by Valhalla Express on Oct 14, 2011 10:14 AM CDT reply actions  

With the terrible turf conditions at Soldier field

Do you think McNabb will actually get a football to “plug” into the ground.

Putting Ponder in isn't the question, it's the answer.
SKOL!!!

by DM_Purp on Oct 14, 2011 10:39 AM CDT reply actions  

Vikes take this until 2nd half

in the second half they finally realize that throwing a 5 yard dump to forte will get them 15 yards ever time. in the 4th Urlacher will have a hernia and we will end up pulling the win out.

Putting Ponder in isn't the question, it's the answer.

by Grime on Oct 14, 2011 11:13 AM CDT reply actions  

VIKINGS WIN 27 - 17

AD caries us and our def scores at least once.

Should be a good game! but I have a feeling I am still going to want to throw rocks at McDaggnabbit.

Vikings Valhalla .com

by Admiral BigGun on Oct 14, 2011 11:15 AM CDT reply actions  

Eh fuck out

Ponder to Harvin for 6!

by Percy Harvin My Fav! on Oct 14, 2011 11:26 AM CDT via mobile reply actions  

Eh fuck it

Vikes win 49-14. Mcnabb goes all Mike Vick against the redskins last year and wins us the game. Mark my words

Ponder to Harvin for 6!

by Percy Harvin My Fav! on Oct 14, 2011 11:28 AM CDT via mobile reply actions  

I think that Viking d-line...

… is going to totally abuse the Bears. The will be the big difference

I also think part of the difference will be Percy Harvin getting some long plays in this game. If he can get behind the linebackers, I think he can get a long play out of a slant or a quick out, or a wide receiver screen. It’s about time for him to get a big play downfield.

by HammeroftheGods on Oct 14, 2011 11:29 AM CDT reply actions  

Disagree with the lyrics....

Any game where Adrian Peterson is present and active is a game worth watching. And when Allen and Robison are tearing O-Lines apart.

by jkunce507 on Oct 14, 2011 11:57 AM CDT reply actions  

To answer a question

The record for combined sacks in a game is 18 — Green Bay Packers (10) vs San Diego Chargers (8) (9/24/78)

I don’t think any game in the era of the QB will come close, but if any were to challenge that record, it would be this one.

Source: Wikipedia

by zxo on Oct 14, 2011 2:13 PM CDT reply actions  

Bad news is that this is on grass.

Grass is not our friend. We have the first step advantage (i.e. quickness) in my opinion, but grass limits the effectiveness of that advantage.

"Man invented language to satisfy his deep need to complain." - Lily Tomlin

by kcskol on Oct 14, 2011 2:38 PM CDT reply actions  

Lots of "Bad News"

The Vikings suck on the road.
The Vikings suck on Grass.
The Vikings suck on Prime Time.
The Vikings suck when all the above happen at the same time :)

Good News:
Another loss would keep the Vikings in the hunt for a great draft pick.

by chaosg on Oct 14, 2011 2:50 PM CDT up reply actions  

The obvious point you all are missing is…..who in the F*ck can stay sober enough for an 8:20 PM (Eastern) game??? Oh, I’ll have it on…..but I’ll be passed out in the recliner, until I spill that full can of Beer in my lap.

by Bobcat m on Oct 14, 2011 4:50 PM CDT reply actions  

This is a great write up Eric, as always.

I do think that the Vikings will best the Bears this week. They looked lifeless at the end of the game against Detroit, and with Julius Peppers being downgraded today to doubtful (woooo!) I think we have a better chance then not with winning the game. But still, great stuff!

"If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous, he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and a man." - Mark Twain

SKOL VIKINGS!

by Landonio on Oct 14, 2011 5:38 PM CDT reply actions  

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