2012 NFL Draft Order Update (December 12th)
by DJSkillz on Dec 11, 2011 7:37 PM CST
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Continuing with my previous post about strength of schedule and the outlook for the Vikings' draft position, I thought I'd keep us up to date on the full NFL draft order. This of course will vary game by game for each team because of the strength of schedule tiebreakers, and I will not include any divisional standing/playoff consideration as those will change--all non-playoff teams constitute the top 20 picks, regardless of record--- but this is the updated current NFL draft order for 2012:
- Indianapolis Colts (0-13; SOS of .550)
- St. Louis Rams (2-11; SOS of .556)
- Minnesota Vikings (2-11; SOS of .574)
- Carolina Panthers (4-9; SOS of .479; owns conference record tie-breaker)
- Washington Redskins (4-9; SOS of .479)
- Cleveland Browns (4-9; SOS of .497)
- Miami Dolphins (4-9; SOS of .509)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (4-9; SOS of .533)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-9; SOS of .550)
- Kansas City Chiefs (5-8; SOS of .479)
- Philadelphia Eagles (5-8; SOS of .491)
- Buffalo Bills (5-8; SOS of .503)
- Arizona Cardinals (6-7; SOS of .467)
- Seattle Seahawks (6-7; SOS of .485)
- San Diego Chargers (6-7; SOS of .509)
- Dallas Cowboys (7-6; SOS of .467)
- Tennessee Titans (7-6; SOS of .497)
- New York Giants (7-6; SOS of .515)
- Cincinnati Bengals (7-6; SOS of .521); This pick is currently a coin flip between Cincinnati & Chicago
- Chicago Bears (7-6; SOS of .521)
- Oakland Raiders pick (7-6; SOS of .533) Traded to Cincinnati Bengals (Carson Palmer trade)
- Atlanta Falcons (8-5; SOS of .473) Traded to Cleveland Browns (Julius Jones trade)
- New York Jets (8-5; SOS of .503)
- Denver Broncos (8-5; SOS of .515); This pick is currently a coin flip between Denver & Detroit
- Detroit Lions (8-5; SOS of .515)
- San Francisco 49ers (10-3; SOS of .450) This pick is currently a coin flip between SanFrancisco & New England
- New England Patriots (10-3; SOS of .450)
- New Orleans Saints (10-3; SOS of .462) Traded to New England Patriots (Mark Ingram trade)
- Houston Texans (10-3; SOS of .467)
- Baltimore Ravens (10-3; SOS of .497)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3; SOS of .509)
- Green Bay Packers (13-0; SOS of .444); worth noting GB has had the easiest schedule in the entire league this year so far.
As for the Vikings' draft position/Strength of Schedule battle with St. Louis, it stands as:
Minnesota Vikings current opponents' strength of schedule: 97-72; SOS of .574
St. Louis Rams' current opponents' strength of schedule: 94-75; SOS of .556
Factoring in remaining schedules:
St. Louis Rams: Cincinnati (7-6), Pittsburgh (10-3), San Francisco (10-3)
Minnesota Vikings: New Orleans (10-3), Washington (4-9), Chicago (7-6)
So when those are factored in we get:
Minnesota Vikings' current opponents' strength of schedule including remaining games: 128-90; SOS of .587
St. Louis Rams' current opponents' strength of schedule including remaining games: 129-89; SOS of .592
That means that ONE game separates the Rams and Vikings in the "projected" strength of schedule. Keep in mind that if they tie in overall strength of schedule, the next tiebreaker is conference record, and the Vikings are currently 2-7 with the Rams being 1-10. We lose that tiebreaker. It's going to be really, really close, folks. As a reminder of what to be watching for: Uncommon games on our schedules:
St. Louis: Philadelphia, New York Giants, Dallas, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Seattle (2x), Arizona, San Francisco (2x)
Minnesota: Carolina, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Kansas City, San Diego, Oakland, Denver, Chicago (2x), Detroit (2x), Green Bay
So again, we should be rooting for the teams of the NFC East, AFC North, and AFC West, and against the teams of the NFC South, the AFC West, and the NFC North if we want the #2 pick. And of course rooting for St. Louis.
I will continue to update this order throughout the season (including playoffs).
This FanPost was created by a registered user of The Daily Norseman, and does not necessarily reflect the views of the staff of the site. However, since this is a community, that view is no less important.
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We can win 1 more game and guarantee a top 3 pick. The 4-9 teams we are competing with for picks 4 through 9 are:
Panthers (Texans, Tampa Bay, @New Orleans)
Washington (Giants, Minnesota, Philadelphia)
Cleveland (Arizona, Baltimore, Pittsburgh)
Miami (Buffalo, New England, Jets)
Jacksonville (Atlanta, @Tennessee, Indianapolis)
Tampa (Dallas, @Carolina, @Atlanta)
Of these, one of Carolina/Tampa Bay is guaranteed to drop out of our reach on draft day. In all likelihood, Jacksonville will beat Indianapolis.
This leaves us with these games to pay attention to:
Week 15:
Cleveland/Arizona
Miami/Buffalo
Week 16:
Tampa Bay/Cleveland
Week 17:
Washington/Philadelphia
IF we assume that we have a pretty good shot at winning vs. Chicago and Washington, these games will go a long way towards cementing our high draft pick. However, my unprofessional opinion is that we’ll probably find an awesome new way to lose at least one of Washington/Chicago and guarantee a top 3 pick.
Dammmiittttttttt
The @s destroyed my post.
And there’s no edit function
Should look like:
Panthers (at Texans, Tampa Bay, at New Orleans)
Washington (at Giants, Minnesota, at Philadelphia)
Cleveland (at Arizona, at Baltimore, Pittsburgh)
Miami (at Buffalo, at New England, Jets)
Jacksonville (at Atlanta, at Tennessee, Indianapolis)
Tampa (Dallas, at Carolina, at Atlanta)
ya, i'm not even going to bother with that...
i think there’s a good chance that all those teams win a game (teams with standing wrapped up, etc.) and i don’t think a team that has won 2 of its first 13 games (us) is going to win 2 of its last 3.
Updated following tonight's game...
this is really going to be ridiculously close. Remember, we cannot tie St. Louis in SOS or we will likely lose the conference-record tie-breaker.
I see an interesting possible trade partner.
We could trade our #3 pick, value 2200 to Cleveland for pick #6 and pick #22 (from Atl.) Values1600 +780 which equals 2380. We might have to throw in a 3rd rounder. If we picked #2, the value is 2600 and Cleveland would have to add a pick. (Wow. what a difference 1 spot makes high in the draft)
I think Cleveland is a possible partner because they are probably in the market for one of the top tier QB’s after Luck. We could use pick #6 and pick #22 to add talent to our talent depleted roster.
I could see us taking Jonathon Martin, OT Stanford at #6 and BPA, either WR, CB or BPA overall, at #22. Of course we would need Clev. to be a willing partner and St. Louis will probably be thinking along these same lines.
Here is the link for the NFL draft value chart. http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php
Your fantasy football expert since Jerry Rice's rookie year.
the tough part is that so many bad teams this year, took a QB last year
Maybe Cleveland is interested, maybe theyre set with McCoy. Washington should be interested but with Shannahan you never know. Miami, probably interested in a QB. KC probably interested, Jax and Tampa probably not.
"At this point, what we got to lose, right? So we might as well throw caution to the wind and hit people in the face."
--Vikings DE Jared Allen
yup...
we gotta hope that McCoy stinks the rest of the year or is really hurt with the concussion stuff and they get panicky.
or Washington sucks and Grossman/Beck look terrible and the PR hit is massive there.
I think Miami/KC will both end up with a QB. Jacksonville probably takes a “lower” one until they “know” that Gabbert sucks. TB has 2 very good qb’s on their roster already; I love Josh Johnson, personally.
I think you're forgetting Seattle
They are definitely interested in trading up this year.
by REVENGE4KLUWE on Dec 12, 2011 9:57 PM CST up reply actions
If you go to their site
They keep mentioning us as a trade partner
Billick: "What did McNabb do to deserve being benched?"
Answer: He upset PETA by killing every worm he came across on a football field.
ya, i was just talking about the teams above...
Seattle’s certainly a possibility. And you know Carroll will go batty for Barkley (who will not work out; I might rather have Tarvaris than him!).
though I should add...
our front offices sort of hate each other (Hutchinson/Rice/Burleson/TJack). I think that might make things harder to get a deal done. Plus, after tonight Seattle’s 1st rd pick will be around 15th, and they have 2 very winnable games left of their last 3 (Chicago and Arizona, to go along with SF). I don’t think we’ll want to fall that far.
Amazing... Vike's Strength of Schedule is the toughest
How can anyone overlook that? Makes the Packers potential perfect run a bit of a flawed argument for easiest schedule of the year.
If anything, it sure has been an entertaining season. Webb can only get better and deserves to stay at QB. I’ll take what he can bring to the table adrian+tebow style.
by VikesFanSince1967 on Dec 12, 2011 8:08 AM CST reply actions
to be fair though...
their strength of schedule factors in playing teams like us. ours factors in playing teams like them. people often overlook that with SOS, but it’s always a bit misleading unless you take out yourself from the equation.
that said...
the fudgepackers are weak bitches that need to die.
:)
Right now
I think the consensus is that either the Vikings will either end up with Kalil, Blackmon, or Claiborne, providing they declare. However, if one or more of these guys doesn’t declare, I’m fully expecting them to trade down. Like Odin said, Cleveland would be the best trade partner but you never know what team could jump up.
Pretty much all the top positions in this year’s draft are of need for the Vikings so hopefully they can fill a need AND take the best available.
by christian220896 on Dec 12, 2011 9:28 AM CST reply actions
for me...
Kalil is the only guy I would not trade down for. If he goes back to school or if we end up #3 and the Rams take him at 2, I trade down if at all possible. I’m not sold on Blackmon; wouldn’t touch him. And this is a deep CB draft so as good as Claiborne is, we have too many holes. Kalil is going to be a perennial PB-level LT though, IMO, so if he’s there he’s the no-brainer pick and we can’t get cute and miss on him. Otherwise, trade down!
Packers Easiest Schedule
How in the bloody hell do the Packers have the easiest schedule this year?!?!!? Aren’t the defending Super Bowl Champs supposed to have the most difficult schedule the following year? Hardly seems fair. I suppose the upside is, they might be the first undefeated team to ever lose in the first round of the playoffs. They’ve never played anybody good this year, apparently.
SKOL Vikings!
when the NFL expanded to 32 teams and 8 divisions
It essentially eliminated the ability to stick the reigning SB champ with a tough schedule. Nowadays entire divisions are (predetermined on a rotating basis) pitted against one division from their own conference (4 games) and one division from the other conference (4 games). Throw in their own division games (6) and all that’s left are 2 games (outside of the predetermined interdivisional games mentioned above) against opponents who finished in the same spot as you did the previous year, i.e. NFC north division champ plays 2 defending division champs, NFC north runner-up plays 2 runner ups, etc.
But as DJ pointed out, playing GB twice “beefed up” our SOS and GB playing Minny twice lowered their SOS.
"At this point, what we got to lose, right? So we might as well throw caution to the wind and hit people in the face."
--Vikings DE Jared Allen
So the win percentage with SOS is deceiving
Because all that separates the schedules of GB from Minn are 2 opponents (St. Louis and NYG this year). And remember, last year GB was the divisional runner up (hence the reason they played St. Louis this year). Chicago was the NFC north champ in 2010.
"At this point, what we got to lose, right? So we might as well throw caution to the wind and hit people in the face."
--Vikings DE Jared Allen
also worth noting we've had the hardest schedule
based on the numbers you’ve given above
According to ESPN,
the Vikings are picking #2 as of right now.
"Like I said, I don’t think anybody on this team knows what schism is, let alone could use it in a sentence. I thought it was an STD when I first heard it. And I was like whoa, we preach abstinence around these parts." - Jared Allen
or it's possible they're just going by "current" records...
where we are 2-11 and the Rams are 2-10 before tonight’s game.
Updated after tonight's game...
percentage points of SOS will change very slightly for all teams that have played St. Louis and Seattle.
certainly possible...
the Redskins game is going to be a huge test of that.
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