It Looks Like The Colts Will Probably Be In Luck This April
by Christopher Gates on Dec 21, 2011 6:54 PM CST
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PrintSo, the past couple of days have largely been spent debating the merits of taking Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck with the first pick in the 2012 NFL Draft. Of course, the right to select Luck would be contingent on the Vikings getting that pick, which is currently held by the 1-13 Indianapolis Colts.
Well, one of the sports guys from an Indianapolis radio station has run the numbers a bit more extensively than I have, and it appears that the only way the Colts are going to fall out of the number one spot in the draft is if they win both of their final two games. The Colts play tomorrow night against Houston, and finish the season with a trip to Jacksonville. Derek Schultz has played out what is the "worst case" for Indianapolis and the "best case" for both Minnesota and St. Louis, and finds that if all three teams were to finish 2-14, it looks like the Colts would stay at #1, while the Vikings would pick second and St. Louis would end up in third.
(Hat tip to our friends at Stampede Blue for that link.)
It could end up getting even less complicated if the Colts should lose to the Texans tomorrow night, according to NFL.com. If Indy ends up losing tomorrow night, it would push the Rams out of the running for the top selection, leaving the race down to the Colts and the Vikings. And even then, it's going to be a pretty tall order for the Vikings to end up with the top selection.
If the Colts lose to the Texans, the best their strength of schedule could be at the end of the season is .5469.
If the Vikings lose their final two games, the worst their strength of schedule could be also is .5469.
The Rams' strength of schedule could be at worst .5586, so they cannot land the No. 1 pick if the Colts lose a 14th game because Indy's best strength of schedule would be lower than the worst possible for St. Louis.
The only other tiebreakers for draft order apply to teams in the same division or conference, which the Colts and Vikings are not. What this means is if any of the Colts' unique opponents (teams who didn't also play the Vikings) lose or any of the Vikings' unique opponents win, then Indy will lock up the No. 1 pick. It will just take one loss by a Colts unique opponents or one win by a Vikings unique opponent.
And if all those things were to fall into place, even then we'd still be looking at a coin flip with the Colts for the #1 overall pick.
Seriously, what the hell chance do you suppose this franchise would have in a coin flip situation?
I guess what I'm trying to say is that nobody should get too attached to the idea of picking first overall in the draft, unless the Colts can go on a mini-run at the end of the year here.
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Yay
One less thing to debate about!
Thank goodness for small favors!
Now, lets talk 2nd pick…..in 2-3 months, please.
2011 Vikings, keeping the liquor industry in the green ALL YEAR LONG!
Would there be any referees at the coin flip?
Because we would surely lose…
by liveforadrenaline on Dec 21, 2011 7:00 PM CST reply actions
Viking Luck
The way this season has gone, watch the Vikings beat Washington on Saturday and screw themselves out of Kahlil.
by vking1 on Dec 21, 2011 7:41 PM CST via mobile reply actions
That's cool, then we have a clear shot at the guy from USC (Matt Barkley).
You don't tug on Superman's cape
You don't spit into the wind
You don't pull the mask of the Spiderman
And you don't trash talk about him
absolutely no way we take a QB whose name isn't Luck.
It would be the dumbest move ever. I agree with vking1, we have to go o-line and Kahlil is the best out there.
I dunno, man. This could be a blessing in disguise.
Barkley has more yards more tds and less ints than Luck this year. Just saying.
And Barkley wouldn’t have to live up to the hype that Luck will.
You don't tug on Superman's cape
You don't spit into the wind
You don't pull the mask of the Spiderman
And you don't trash talk about him
by REVENGE4WEBB on Dec 21, 2011 8:16 PM CST up reply actions
... Then why the fluck..
were you demanding we take Luck, if Barkley is ‘better’?
by REVENGE4KLUWE on Dec 22, 2011 1:21 PM CST up reply actions
I have not demanded anything.
I was just joking with him. But BARKLEY KICKS ASS MAN, WE CAN GET HIM.
if he declares to go into the draft, that is.
You don't tug on Superman's cape
You don't spit into the wind
You don't pull the mask of the Spiderman
And you don't trash talk about him
by REVENGE4WEBB on Dec 22, 2011 2:43 PM CST up reply actions
Okay, Barkley is staying in college. What about that other guy? Whathizface?
You don't tug on Superman's cape
You don't spit into the wind
You don't pull the mask of the Spiderman
And you don't trash talk about him
by REVENGE4WEBB on Dec 22, 2011 3:06 PM CST up reply actions
And Barkely
Damn, there must be some fine you-know-what at USC for him to stay another year. Little does he know, there is more once he goes pro.
There might be a Kardashian involved.
You don't tug on Superman's cape
You don't spit into the wind
You don't pull the mask of the Spiderman
And you don't trash talk about him
by REVENGE4WEBB on Dec 22, 2011 3:25 PM CST up reply actions
Hmmm.
OK, so, I’m not the best when it comes to the myriad of rules in tie-breaking situations; at this time of year, I’d be worthless to project playoffs.
That said, isn’t there a tie-breaker situation based on total offensive points scored? Wouldn’t that be what it comes to if we end up with equal records and equal strength of schedule? At that point, of course, I would imagine that the Colts would still get #1, but I can’t say that with certainty. (I’m just guessing that based on the number of blowouts suffered by the Colts vs. the Vikings.)
261 Daily Norseman readers and counting say I am a genius... the masses have spoke!
...and those who voted 'moron' were secretly Packer trolls.
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By my math...
which is admitedly often shaky (even in simple addition), as of right now I’m right in regards to who has more points: Vikings- 294/ Colts- 211.
261 Daily Norseman readers and counting say I am a genius... the masses have spoke!
...and those who voted 'moron' were secretly Packer trolls.
Follow @KJSegall
Just look at any regular season standings list. They list points for and points against.
Colts – pf=211 – pa=395
Vikes – pf=294 – pa=406
You don't tug on Superman's cape
You don't spit into the wind
You don't pull the mask of the Spiderman
And you don't trash talk about him
by REVENGE4WEBB on Dec 21, 2011 8:13 PM CST up reply actions
Ponder is not the problem. Build around him.
Everyone is looking for a scapegoat to a bad season, but QB isn’t the problem. If looking to blame stop at the top and work your way down. Blame the Wilf’s for not having a GM manage their team that knows something about football. Blame Childress and Frasier for being inexperienced coaches who can only see the next game, and have no long range vision or plans. Blame Farve and McNabb for not knowing when to hang it up, and wasting our time and resources when the Vikes should have been rebuilding. Blame McKinney for not taking his career seriously enough to get in shape for the 2011 season. Blame the owners for locking the players out and eliminating a preseason for the Vikes, who had an entirely new team & staff without time to prepare. Blame NO for breaking the spirit of the 09 team with cheap shots, dirty play, dirty refs, and a heartbreaking loss when Mn had a chance to win it all. Blame the Mn politicians who are using the stadium issue for their selfish political ends, taking the Wilf’s eyes off of managing this team the way it needs to be. Lot of blame to go around, yet Ponder has more heart and more ability than he is given credit for. He is the least of the problem. We need LT first rd, CB second rd, WR in free agency, DT in 3rd rd, MLB in 4th, CB &WR in later rounds. Fran T backs Ponder, I trust his judgment on QB more than all fans and beat reporters combined. We get #2 pick overall, it should be Kalil. Time to rebuild the OL.
by fisher7 on Dec 21, 2011 8:50 PM CST reply actions 2 recs
well said fisher
I agree, The vikes are one of those teams that put together one really great season, about once every ten years.. 98, 09..but besides that the are mediocre at best… it is time to actually build a Long term quality team.. not going all in one year in hopes of going all the way, ( which we should have done in 09, We were the best team in the NFL,, hands down).. The rebuilding process is gonna be painful, and slow.. but in 3-4 years we could once again be in the hunt… so lets do this right if we are gonna blow it up, and start over,, the O line is #1 priority, followed by our secondary…. get ready for a long journey fans,,, but hopefully in the end it will be worth it….
P.S..,, build the damn stadium…
MEDIOCRE???
Are ye kiddin’ me? In the fifty years the Vikings have been in existence, they have had 18 division championships, 26 playoff appearances, 9 championship games, and 4 Super Bowl appearances! Mediocre ye says? I figger a lot of teams in the NFL would be a-wishin’ they was as ‘mediocre’ as ye says they are, dontchasee?
"Never approach a bull from the front, a horse from the rear, or a fool from any direction." - Old Cowboy proverb.
The vikings are less than mediocre at this point. But the 70's were fun
even though we lost the super bowl 4 times. Since then, we are mediocre, I agree with him.
You don't tug on Superman's cape
You don't spit into the wind
You don't pull the mask of the Spiderman
And you don't trash talk about him
by REVENGE4WEBB on Dec 22, 2011 2:41 PM CST up reply actions
I see that Rams rookie WR
Austin Pettis was busted for performance enhancing drugs for four games. One might think that this would even further influence their decision to pursue Blackmon. Because I don’t think this Viking team wants to go down as as crappy as that 1984 team, and there is a respectable chance that we can win either or both of our last two games.
Build up your weaknesses until they become your strong points." --Knute Rockne
What happens if we are third and the Rams trade their pick
To a team that promptly selects Matt Kalil. How likely does everyone think that is… what teams would be willing to make such a trade?
"You can write articles and do whatever you want, you can break down every player. Good, bad or ugly. But we just aren't good enough as a team, as a group. Offensively, defensively and special teams, from the No. 1 on the roster to the last man on the roster. We just aren't good enough. It's as simple as that." - Chad Greenway
Any top trades won't be for Kalil, but QB
Indy will take Luck. Mn will get 2nd pick unless we win one more. If Rams 2nd they take Kalil, Blackmon, or Claiborne, Mn will likely trade down for Martin or Reiff if Kalil gone and get an extra pick in the second rd.
would the rams take Kalli?
they used the #2 overall pick in 2009 for a tackle, Jason Smith
Very possible
I live here in StL., and Smith has been a bust. Heck, every lineman they’ve picked since Orlando Pace has been a bust. They’d be very much in play for Kalil.
"Go hard. I mean, like relentless. I want a bunch of coaches that coach like their hair’s on fire, and I want a football team that goes for four to six seconds (per play) with relentless effort." OSU Coach Urban Meyer.
Kalil will go at #2 to either MN or Stl
Kalil will be a pro bowl LT within 3-4 years. His brother is a pro bowl center. He’s the kind of player that will be a cornerstone in a championship level OL. Stl would be foolish not taking him to protect Bradford. LT next important position after QB.
Vikings need impact players
We need Oline but then we need defense. A league worst 406 points allowed. Colts are 1-13, gave up 62 to the Saints and still have allowed fewer points. This team cannot be rebuilt in one year. Need to think about a two year rebuilding effort. After Oline, we need defense.
by Vikefandc on Dec 22, 2011 6:52 AM CST via mobile reply actions
Thank God
We can shut up with the Luck stuff.
And so help me God, if any of you bring up Matt Barkley or Robert Griffin III my head will explode.
"Go hard. I mean, like relentless. I want a bunch of coaches that coach like their hair’s on fire, and I want a football team that goes for four to six seconds (per play) with relentless effort." OSU Coach Urban Meyer.
by Ted Glover on Dec 22, 2011 7:01 AM CST reply actions 2 recs
Well, you know...
some people think RGIII is even better than Luck..
by REVENGE4KLUWE on Dec 22, 2011 1:23 PM CST up reply actions
Mel Kuiper and Todd Mcshay only agree on one thing.
It happened today. They both think that if the Vikings get the top spot in the draft, that they pick Luck and try to trade Ponder for whatever they can get for him. They see no point in passing on a guy like Luck, because they both said that Ponder is not the answer. I’m just relaying what they said.
And they never agree.
You don't tug on Superman's cape
You don't spit into the wind
You don't pull the mask of the Spiderman
And you don't trash talk about him
by REVENGE4WEBB on Dec 22, 2011 2:49 PM CST up reply actions
I guess it's settled then
No way in hell we select him with them saying we will.
If we can't laugh at ourselves, Packer fans will call us crybabies and we will be forced to kick their tooth in. I really don't want to go to jail (again).
by Alittlemore_cowbell on Dec 22, 2011 4:14 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Well, Luck is the top qb prospect coming out in a long time.
Maybe even they can see that. Wow. We might actually get a shot at him.
well then who the hell are you talkin' to...are you talkin' to me?
The non sense of picking # 1 is over, Thank you
I predict that we are going to pick #3, Chicago will lose this weekend against Green Bay, therefore they will out for the playoffs, if that is the case there is no way that they will play Cutler abd Forte. our chances of winning that last game increases, we will finish 3-13 and we will have the #3 spot in the draft. Bye Bye Mr Kalil
Its not over yet.
Depends on if they win tonight or not.
Irsay may want Luck, but I don’t imagine his players will simply roll over for a 1-15 season.
by REVENGE4KLUWE on Dec 22, 2011 1:26 PM CST up reply actions
How far we've fallen
I can’t believe how far we’ve fallen since halftime of week 1 when we held a 10 point lead over San Diego on the road. I remember thinking at the time that the Vikes were going to surprise everyone by contending for the NFC North. The only surprise it turns out is how bad they are.
If we can’t get Luck, I’m ok with that – I support taking Kalil and I think he’ll be there at #2 or #3 because someone will want to trade up to take a QB at #2.
What a sorry season. Can’t wait for pitchers and catchers.
AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
I CAN’T TAKE IT ANYMORE!!!!!!
Gentlemen! You can't fight in here, this is a war room!
All those arguments...
… about taking Luck were an exercise in arguing for arguing’s sake. There is no way that Indy is relinquishing that pick, even if that means tanking. Maybe Indy will try a drop kick and some third down punts!
Indy is going to totally tank. We need an NFL Draft Lottery, complete with ping-pong balls.
You don't tug on Superman's cape
You don't spit into the wind
You don't pull the mask of the Spiderman
And you don't trash talk about him
by REVENGE4WEBB on Dec 22, 2011 2:50 PM CST up reply actions
If Kalil is not there, then who
Claiborne or the OL from Stanford, Martin, Is that OL from Iowa worth talking about a first round pick on Reiff. Regardless too many holes to address and the QB isn’t one of them, DB or the OL are a must!
If it comes down to a coinflip
I motion for Steve Hutchinson not to call it.
Tails never fails.
Will Probably Be In Luck This April
They’re getting ESPN’s sloppy seconds.
If we can't laugh at ourselves, Packer fans will call us crybabies and we will be forced to kick their tooth in. I really don't want to go to jail (again).
by Alittlemore_cowbell on Dec 22, 2011 1:59 PM CST reply actions
Can we talk about how disgusting it is than Indy just happens to completely collapse without their QB ? And now they are inline for Luck after already having possibly the best QB of all time on their roster ? I seriously thing they should be investigated and lose their franchise. Or at least everyone in their head office should receive a solid punch to the nuts.
Naw
I think its just coincidence. There’s no way this is legitimately planned. I doubt the players on the Colts are happy with going 0-13, even if it makes sense ‘logically’ when looking to the future.
by REVENGE4KLUWE on Dec 22, 2011 11:00 PM CST up reply actions
Well, they pulled a rabbit out of their asshat tonight.
well then who the hell are you talkin' to...are you talkin' to me?
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