Vikings Draft Pick Could Be As High As Second, As Low As Sixth

by Christopher Gates on Dec 26, 2011 2:51 PM CST in Draft

We already know that the Minnesota Vikings can no longer get the top overall selection in the 2012 NFL Draft. They took that possibility off of the table with their victory over the Washington Redskins on Saturday afternoon. However, depending on what happens on New Year's Day, the Vikings could have a bit of a swing in where they do actually select.

Right now, there are six teams in the National Football League that have four wins or fewer. Those teams are the Indianapolis Colts (two wins), St. Louis Rams (two wins), the Vikings (three wins), Cleveland Browns (four wins), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (four wins), and Jacksonville Jaguars (four wins). Those are the teams that the Vikings are jockeying for draft position with.

Obviously, if the Vikings lose on Sunday to the Chicago Bears, they can select no worse than third. If the Rams win and the Vikings lose, then it would appear that the Vikings would leapfrog the Rams based on strength of schedule and wind up with the second spot. However, the Rams are going to be facing a San Francisco 49ers team that is still fighting for the second overall seed in the NFC and a first-round playoff bye, so that's a pretty tall order. With all due respect to our friends at Turf Show Times, I wouldn't anticipate a St. Louis victory on Sunday.

With a Vikings' win, they'll be battling with the Browns, Buccaneers, and Jaguars. According to our friends at the Great Blue North Draft Report, those three teams all currently have a lower strength of schedule than the Vikings do. That means that, as things stand now, a Vikings' victory over the Bears on Sunday afternoon could drop the Vikings all the way down to the #6 overall pick in the draft.

Taking a look at those three teams, the Buccaneers are pretty much a dead team walking, as Coach Raheem Morris is probably coaching his last game when Tampa travels to the Georgia Dome on Sunday to take on the Atlanta Falcons. Jacksonville is going to be hosting the Colts, but they've been so atrocious lately that the Colts might even be favored in that one. The Browns finish the season by hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers, a team that is still battling for a first-round bye in the AFC.

Looking at those three games, the only one of those three teams I would even remotely expect a victory from would be Jacksonville. And, as I've said, they've been awful lately.

One other thing to keep in mind is that head-to-head match-ups, apparently, do not have any role in breaking ties between teams when it comes to the draft order. So, Tampa Bay's Week 2 victory over the Vikings doesn't mean anything. . .if both the Vikings and the Buccaneers end up 4-12 and Tampa has the lower strength of schedule, then they'll get a higher selection than the Vikings do.

So, to recap, if the Vikings lose to Chicago, they're guaranteed no worse than the third overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft (and no better than the second overall pick, because the Colts beat them in any strength of schedule tiebreaker). If the Vikings beat the Bears to end the season, they can still draft third, but don't be surprised if they drop as far as sixth.

Man, if some of you are pissed off that the Vikings missed out on #1 overall, you're going to be downright homicidal if they drop out of the top five.

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Comments

You know,

I think we’re going to beat the Bears in all honesty, and we could wind up with the number 6. Question is, if a guy like Justin Blackmon is available, do we take him there? Or do we pull the trigger on a guy like Riley Reiff or Jonathan Martin because that’s a better value for them? We could also snag a guy like Quinton Coples for our defense, but that’s a bigger stretch of the imagination. Ugh.

"Like I said, I don’t think anybody on this team knows what schism is, let alone could use it in a sentence. I thought it was an STD when I first heard it. And I was like whoa, we preach abstinence around these parts." - Jared Allen

by Landonio on Dec 26, 2011 2:54 PM CST reply actions

Receiver in the first? NO!!

Usually I favor best available player, but this year the Vikings need to select a LT in the first and best available cornerback in the second. After that, best available player with respect to the Vikings many needs.

by vking1 on Dec 26, 2011 3:13 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

I didn't say that!

Just posing a general question. I think we should go OT as well.

by Landonio on Dec 26, 2011 3:36 PM CST up reply actions

We need a LT this draft

We can’t keep letting Charlie Johnson kill our QBs.

by Amrius on Dec 26, 2011 3:25 PM CST up reply actions

I want blackmon

I know I am in the minority here, but you look at what happened when the bears took calvin johnson is unbelievable. And I know it’s risky seeing how they took roy williams and charles rodgers both screw-ups. but in a win now league a left tackle does not help you win now, but unbelievable player will like when we took AP or calvin johnson

by mr.right on Dec 26, 2011 3:36 PM CST up reply actions

Nice big deep threat reciever means nothing

When the qb is laying on his back. A LT can help us win now just as much if not more than a big play WR because of what I said above.

That and I’m not completely sold on Blackmon being great and it’s much easier to get reciever help that line help in FA. I am completely against addressing WR before O-line or even CB.

by reebs on Dec 26, 2011 4:01 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

more and more i'm thinking we don't need a "deep threat"...

…we just need a good WR who knows how to get open…

"Th_r_'s n_ h_p_ f_r _ssh_l_ f_ckw_ts."

Can I buy a vowel...?? +1, Kluwe.

by rj-b on Dec 26, 2011 4:07 PM CST up reply actions

i think its the lions that took calvin johnson…but i see your point nonetheless.

by RedHat16 on Dec 26, 2011 9:26 PM CST up reply actions

Also the lions had Jeff Backus as their LT not Charlie Johnson

If we had a LT in place I would have no problem taking Blackmon early in the draft but without protection for our QB it would be pointless.

by nmvikesfan on Dec 27, 2011 1:07 AM CST up reply actions

Blackmon is no Calvin Johnson

by mn nole on Dec 28, 2011 12:19 AM CST up reply actions

Crazy thing is

That Lion’s O-line that let Stafford get injured the past couple seasons.. is the same one that’s playing this year. And they’re doing pretty good.

by REVENGE4KLUWE on Dec 27, 2011 10:42 AM CST up reply actions

The draft isn't everything

Every team has to get creative when looking to replenish their ranks. The Vikings have guys on their bench that are waiting for their chance, and they have players that could convert to different positions. Everson Griffen at strong side linebacker. Greenway to weak side. Cedric Griffen and Winfield to safety. DeMarcus Love to RT, Charlie Johnson to RG, etc. The talent you already have must find its way onto the field.

However, some positions need a high draft pick. Left Tackle is one of them. So is a legit deep threat WR. If the Vikings do secure the 3rd overall, they should trade it to a team a couple picks back for an extra 2nd rounder. Then they can take a great LT, a great G, and a legit deep threat WR, the three things they need to spread the field like a normal offense. Then all their running backs can operate without facing a 9-man front.

by jimbo55403 on Dec 26, 2011 4:38 PM CST up reply actions

The Vikings better get one of...

Matt Kalil
Jonathan Martin

or imma be pissed…

by JWILLIS11 on Dec 26, 2011 3:20 PM CST reply actions

Prepare to be pissed!

When’s the last time they picked someone you wanted?

by cyberuck on Dec 26, 2011 3:24 PM CST up reply actions

2nd round of last year for me, seems like all the best offenses/QBs have game changing TEs these days (Graham, Gronk, Finley, Gates etc.

by Hamm on Dec 26, 2011 3:48 PM CST up reply actions

what's wrong with Reiff...??

he’s going to open eyes if he declares — could leapfrog Martin in the minds of many after the combine.

"Th_r_'s n_ h_p_ f_r _ssh_l_ f_ckw_ts."

Can I buy a vowel...?? +1, Kluwe.

by rj-b on Dec 26, 2011 3:41 PM CST up reply actions

Already has, in a lot of scouts' minds.

But all 3 are top left tackle prospects. I wouldn’t be surprised if Reiff ended up leapfrogging Martin in the draft, he looks more technically sound than Martin, though I think Martin probably has more upside.

by Landonio on Dec 26, 2011 3:46 PM CST up reply actions

Reiff seems like a more balanced OT

not that he’s exceptional at any one thing, but he just seems more ‘complete’ than Martin.

then again, i watch a lot of Iowa games, so i’ve certainly seen Reiff a bit more… :-/

"Th_r_'s n_ h_p_ f_r _ssh_l_ f_ckw_ts."

Can I buy a vowel...?? +1, Kluwe.

by rj-b on Dec 26, 2011 3:52 PM CST up reply actions

I agree on Martin

I remember a discussion on ESPN once about how the NFL is cautious evaluating Iowa linemen. The discussion was that Ferentz does such a good job ‘coaching them up’ that when they get to the NFL they’re pretty much at their ceiling. But, I’d be happy with either.

by Caretaker QB on Dec 26, 2011 8:16 PM CST up reply actions

Riley Rieff is now ranked higher than Martin

Not sure why, but Reiff is now far more valued, according to Draftek.

by jimbo55403 on Dec 26, 2011 4:41 PM CST up reply actions

Martin is pretty inconsistent and struggles in pass blocking more than Reiff does,

Reiff is more complete as a player, but Martin has a lot of upside and physical ability.

by Landonio on Dec 26, 2011 5:03 PM CST up reply actions

This actually could work out just fine

I’ve wanted Jonathan Martin for a long time. But recent buzz on him has dropped him below the top 5 range (though I honestly don’t know why).

I’d be much happier drafting Martin at 6 than someone like Coples or Blackmon at 3. And if dropping to 6 is what it takes to avoid those two (and every other non-LT), than sobeit.

by Jayrome007 on Dec 26, 2011 3:44 PM CST reply actions

either way, Browns need to win

they represent the best trade-down partner for us, so the farther away they get from us in the draft order, the better. i doubt Holmgren would trade away his two 1st rd picks, but you never know what could happen… maybe we throw back a 3rd rdr.

on another note, if Raheem Morris is fired, we can add another name to the possibilities for a new DC (along with Del Rio and Spags if he’s fired); not that Morris is a better choice, but a Tampa-2 DC would grab Frazier’s attention.

"Th_r_'s n_ h_p_ f_r _ssh_l_ f_ckw_ts."

Can I buy a vowel...?? +1, Kluwe.

by rj-b on Dec 26, 2011 3:48 PM CST reply actions

LOL nevermind... the Browns are playing the Steelers...

a win is highly unlikely.

"Th_r_'s n_ h_p_ f_r _ssh_l_ f_ckw_ts."

Can I buy a vowel...?? +1, Kluwe.

by rj-b on Dec 26, 2011 4:34 PM CST up reply actions

Just so long as they pick for positional needs and don't go screwy again.

P.S. that means fix the offenseive line and the defensive backfield, please.

taylor: doctor, I'd like to kiss you goodbye.
dr. zira: all right, but you're so damned ugly.

by monkey luvver on Dec 26, 2011 4:34 PM CST reply actions

I'm rooting for the Falcons tonight

Because if they beat the Saints, then the 49ers are guaranteed the 2nd seed, and they will rest their starters against the Rams.

By the way, The Strength of Schedule rankings of all 6 teams is set, because the gap between teams is too big to change: Rams>Vikings>Bucs>Browns>Jags

by guibec on Dec 26, 2011 4:59 PM CST reply actions

So the Rams have the highest strength of schedule

And the Jags have the weakest. . .and nothing will change that.

Awesome. . .saves me having to sit down and figure out all sorts of scenarios. (-:

Thanks!

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by Christopher Gates on Dec 26, 2011 5:04 PM CST up reply actions

Upon farther review ther is a small chance that TB will surpass the Vikes in SoS.

Assumig that the Vikings will win and the Bucs wil lose, the Vikings could have a higher pick than Tampa.
For that to happen AT LEAST 3 of the next 4 results have to happen:
Philadelphia Wins vs. Washington
Dallas Wins at New York
Seattle Wins vs. Arizona
San Francisco Wins at St. Louis

If exactly 3 results occur accordingly, then both teams will be tied, and because the Vikes lost to TB, they will have a higher pick

by guibec on Dec 26, 2011 8:25 PM CST up reply actions

Cool

at least 2 of those are highly likely. san fran adn Seatle of a really good shot at winning. I wouldn’t put it behind Philly to win either.

Will the Real Thor Please Stand Up ... ?

by the Real Thor on Dec 28, 2011 9:49 AM CST up reply actions

Should sat Adrian

Frazier is a fool for playing Peterson. At the very least, give him an extra week to come back from an injury until he is absolutely 100%. But really, even if he was healthy, I would have sat him. Running backs get used up so quickly — the should be helf back wherever and whenever possible. It’s not like AP needed reps to develop (like Ponder). There was no reason to play him once the Vikings were mathematcialy elminated. Even if he didn’t get injured, that would be one less game at the end of his long contract that he would be less effective.

by Darren From The Bronx on Dec 26, 2011 5:15 PM CST reply actions

so...

should Frazier have sat Jared Allen, Percy Harvin, Kevin Williams… since the season is over?

by Wu on Dec 26, 2011 5:16 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs

I would have seriously considered Jared Allen, but probably wouldn’t have sat him. The difference is that even without a catastrophic injury, running backs get worn down so quickly (most of the time), every one of their games is precious. I think AP takes more of a beating game in and game out than any guy you mentioned.

by Darren From The Bronx on Dec 26, 2011 6:40 PM CST up reply actions

He is our best player and he wants to play.

He wasn’t happy about only getting 10 carries against New Orleans. Sitting AP wasn’t even a topic for consideration,and it shouldn’t have been. I’ve been a Vikes fan for 41 years. In that time I have never seen or heard of any player in the NFL sitting out to avoid injury because his team is out of the post-season. The ONLY time this happens is when a team has already secured a playoff spot and home-field scenarios are set.

by Jshore on Dec 27, 2011 11:09 AM CST up reply actions

*held back, not helf back

I’m still pissed. And this wasn’t hindsight. I said it before the game. Top tier running backs should sit for the rest of the year once the team is out of it.

by Darren From The Bronx on Dec 26, 2011 5:16 PM CST reply actions

The guy is making about $14 million in salary. It's hard to justify just sitting a salary like that.

He is the new Joe Mauer.

taylor: doctor, I'd like to kiss you goodbye.
dr. zira: all right, but you're so damned ugly.

by monkey luvver on Dec 26, 2011 5:24 PM CST up reply actions

I don’t know why salary should play into it. Considering the amount of guaranteed money he got and is going to get, it is much more valuable to make sure the Vikings get their value in the future, rather than the present, which is absoluteley meaningless.

And again, I would hhave made this comment even if he WASN’T just returning from a bad injury. But that just should have sealed the deal – call it a season and get healthy for next year. And if we get a higher draft pick as a side effect, even better.

by Darren From The Bronx on Dec 26, 2011 6:42 PM CST up reply actions

^^This^^

by chaosg on Dec 26, 2011 8:03 PM CST up reply actions

Tampa Bay...

beat the Vikings, how could they pick ahead of them if the records are the same?

by SpoiledAppleSauce1970 on Dec 26, 2011 5:51 PM CST reply actions

because strength of schedule is the FIRST tiebreaker criteria

from nfl.com ( http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures ):
“If ties exist in any grouping except (2) above, such ties shall be broken by strength-of-schedule. If any ties cannot be broken by strength-of-schedule, the divisional or conference tie-breakers, if applicable, shall be applied. Any ties that still exist shall be broken by a coin flip.”

by guibec on Dec 26, 2011 7:19 PM CST up reply actions

I don't think we need to draft WR in first round

when we could go after Dwayne Bowe (KC). Guy is a huge talent and would be worth spending Sidney Rice money on. Then we can draft a stud LT or G and shore things up on offense immediately. Let’s let go of some of the older well paid vets, replace with youth and invest our cap money in a young dynamic player like Bowe with a solid 5 years ahead of him.

Plus, remember the last guy we got from KC? He turned out alright.

by bender26 on Dec 26, 2011 6:34 PM CST reply actions

and if not Bowe due to Franchise Tag

I would pursue a Pierre Garcon or similar.

by bender26 on Dec 26, 2011 6:37 PM CST up reply actions

try Stevie Johnson

he wants ~$9mil/yr, and the Bills keep undercutting that number, meaning they likely won’t use the franchise tag on him if their dance continues (tag value would be around $10mil).

"Th_r_'s n_ h_p_ f_r _ssh_l_ f_ckw_ts."

Can I buy a vowel...?? +1, Kluwe.

by rj-b on Dec 27, 2011 10:58 AM CST up reply actions

He would work well too.

by bender26 on Dec 27, 2011 11:00 AM CST up reply actions

Marqueis Colston?

not sure of 1st name spelling, but the wr from saints. It was mentioned during game that he’s free agent at seasons end. Big target, would be nice grab.

by PurpleCrush on Dec 27, 2011 11:06 AM CST up reply actions

Saints will not let him go

they’ll make sure he gets paid.

they’ll probably let Meachem walk, but i’m not sure Meachem is a viable #1 option. tough to say.

looking at the other FA options…
Bowe is unlikely to hit the open market (like Colston, KC will pay Bowe well to stay).
Vincent and DeSean Jackson both have attitude issues, not sure that’s the best thing to bring into the locker room.

personally, Stevie Johnson and Reggie Wayne (should the Colts decide to move forward with Luck and concentrate on signing Garcon, thus letting the aging vet go) are our best options to shoot for should they hit the FA market.

"Th_r_'s n_ h_p_ f_r _ssh_l_ f_ckw_ts."

Can I buy a vowel...?? +1, Kluwe.

by rj-b on Dec 27, 2011 12:50 PM CST up reply actions

Mike Wallace

Would be a perfect fit FA acquisition. Deep speed. Fights for the ball.

Don't you know who the *^$% I am?

by Jeppernaut on Dec 26, 2011 6:41 PM CST via mobile reply actions

If the Steelers actually let him go

I think we have competition for dumbest Front Office

by Amrius on Dec 26, 2011 6:45 PM CST up reply actions

Brandon Carr

Another great fit FA pickup corner to fill some holes.

Don't you know who the *^$% I am?

by Jeppernaut on Dec 26, 2011 6:53 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

Hahah

He definitely won’t be available.

by REVENGE4KLUWE on Dec 27, 2011 10:44 AM CST up reply actions

2 picks top 40 regardless....

There is enough talent in the top 40 of the draft to go around. Honestly 3-6 spot are all about equal as far as picking up talent especially at the positions we need. Those spots are actually a nightmare for trying to get a QB…you know the best is gone and the 2nd best will never be good enough……Basically look at it like this, after Luck and Kalil, there will be 8 guys to pick from that are worthy of as high as 3 and as low as 6. Doesn’t matter now where we pick. We will be fine this year.

by vaeine on Dec 26, 2011 10:18 PM CST reply actions

As low as #6?

That’s definitely not what I wanted to hear. I wasn’t going to root for us to lose out, but I had hoped we would end up with the #1 pick overall so we could finally undo that awful “he who must not be named”-fleecing.

Christian Ponder: Super Bowl 50 MVP for the Minnesota Vikings
For Basketball Reasons

by Td1984 on Dec 26, 2011 11:22 PM CST reply actions

Being #3 is not to bad

Look at it this way
1. Indy – Luck
2. St Louis – Kalil
3. Us, ok now you say we missed out on Kalil, but yet RGIII is now BPA and we hold the cards to trade down and get extra picks and be able to draft Reiff or Martin, then fill other needs with those extra picks. Or St Louis trades the #2 pick and trades down and we get Kalil at #3. So I think we are still in good shape.
Now if we drop to #6 we will still be able to draft Reiff or Martin or even DeCastro to help out our O-line. But having the # 3 pick means we draft 3rd in every round of the draft and that could help us in shortening the gap with the rest of the NFC North.

by nmvikesfan on Dec 27, 2011 1:37 AM CST reply actions

Traveling in from Florida and I want a win

I’m glad we’re not in the running for the #1 pick. I have never cheered for my team to lose and this didn’t feel right (even though I relish the potential of Luck).

Listen, we’re playing the Bears Sunday and I hate the Bears. I don’t care where we pick, I follow my team for them to win. We live in Florida and we’re traveling back to Minnesota to see the Vikings win. So…. #2, #6… whatever. Let’s go out on a good note and beat the Bears.

by cdmflorida on Dec 27, 2011 6:59 AM CST reply actions

I'm guessing if we draft 6

and Kalil is gone, we trade down and get some picks.

St. Louis, TB, Jacksonville all have QBs. Indy would take Luck (though i know if St. Louis has 1 overall indy won’t get him) and Cleveland’s issues stem far worse than QB, i think they get someone else.

I could see Seattle or Miami jumping up to grab RG3 if he’s available at 6. any thoughts?

when asked by Dan Patrick if his name alluded to not making quick decisions in the pocket, Ponder calmly replied "As crazy as it sounds, my mom's maiden name is actually Superbowlwinner. All one word"

by filbert33 on Dec 27, 2011 10:01 AM CST reply actions

I dunno, its a copy cat league

Cleveland might look to Carolina and see how well Newton’s doing for that offense, and they might decide getting a strong-armed mobile guy is what’s best for their team. They have a decent defense, at least on paper.

Nobody thought Carolina had any good wideouts going into this season save for Smith, but Newton’s managed to make that Offense go. Its kind of similar to the Browns.

by REVENGE4KLUWE on Dec 27, 2011 10:47 AM CST up reply actions

saying our offseason moves is important is a major......understatement

Even if we “nail it” on the draft, it’s going to take that and a combination of trades & FA signings to put us back on the map. The Vikings owner needs to loosen his grip on his checkbook IF they want to make any splashes in 2012. If not, they simply need to come clean and tell the fans, they are going to rebuild with the draft and it will take more years to get there. At the current moment, they are 2-3 years away from competing for the playoffs………….let alone a title.

by jjlovesfootball on Dec 27, 2011 10:53 AM CST reply actions

Zygi has always been willing to spend.

There is a salary cap to worry about and competition for the best free agents. Otherwise I think he’ll do anything and everything in his power to put a winner on the field.

by Jshore on Dec 27, 2011 11:14 AM CST up reply actions

Dont worry about the draft yet F/A comes first

If Spielman uses his brain and supplements the draft with F/A and fills some positions now. Get a clue Spielman. Heres some of the canidates we should try to sign. Landry SS WASH, Rogers CB S.F or Carr CB K.C., Colston WR N.O., Wayne WR IND, Bowe WR K.C., one of the last three not all. Nicks OG N.O. Out of this group i would say go after Landry SS, CARR CB, Colston WR, Nicks OG,
Draft
1st R Kalil or Martin or Reiff OT
2nd R Minnifield or Gilmore CB
3rd R Randle, or Mcnutt WR
3rd R Comp Lester S

Thats just my thoughts.

by Viking King on Dec 28, 2011 9:46 AM CST reply actions

Vikings

Let Christian play just give him a moving pocket so he can roll out. Leave in the RB to block if it’s Gerhart. If it’s King or Harvin in the back field with Ponder then use those two on screen passes and keep a tight end into block. Use three wide reciever sets which would include mixing in Shaincoe with that. What i’m saying Musgrave (1) Get more play makers out on the field. (2) Occasionally throw an intermediate or deep pass. (3) Would like to see that Emmanuel kid from Canada get a shot to see him go down the field on intermediate or long routes. (4) Send Emmanuel or Devin go over the top and send the other guy under him across the middle Devin seems to have hisbest chances going over the middle. In other words Musgrave be creative instead of run,run,pass! Its predictable. Musgrave get a clue!

by Viking King on Dec 28, 2011 10:05 AM CST reply actions