Grandpa Sports Speculates On The Vikings' Compensatory Picks

by Christopher Gates on Dec 31, 2011 12:00 PM CST in Draft

The "compensatory pick" portion of the National Football League draft has always been a bit of a mystery. The compensatory picks are usually given out about a month before the draft, and the somewhat nebulous rules governing them simply state that

Compensatory free agents are determined by a formula based on salary, playing time and postseason honors. The formula was developed by the NFL Management Council. Not every free agent lost or signed by a club is covered by this formula.

The number of compensatory picks given out always equals 32, and compensatory picks can't be traded. Compensatory picks are no higher than third-rounders, and after those have been given out, picks are simply added to the end of the seventh round, based on draft order, until the number of compensatory picks equals 32. There were 21 picks given out in the 2011 Draft based on the free agency rules, so 11 more were added to the end of the seventh round. (Of course, the Vikings selected 12th in 2011, which means they just barely missed out on receiving an extra draft pick and getting the chance to draft Mr. Irrelevant.)

Now, our own college scouting/draft guru Mark has been stating that he believes that the Vikings will get two compensatory picks in the 2012 NFL Draft. He is projecting one of those picks to be at the end of the third round, and the other to be at the end of the seventh round. However, Sid Hartman's close, personal friends are telling him that it might be better than that for the Vikings. Apparently Sid is hearing that the Vikings' two compensatory picks could be fourth-rounders.

Now, that may or may not be true. It would be nice if it was, because this draft is deep at a couple of positions of need for the Vikings, particularly at wide receiver. But if compensatory free agents are "determined by a formula based on salary, playing time, and post-season honors," it stands to reason that the Vikings could, indeed, be well compensated.

It's my understanding that the free agents that would be included in this are only those whose contracts had run out and were not re-signed by their teams, not players that were released. Therefore, somebody like Michael Jenkins, who was cut by the Falcons, wouldn't count against Minnesota in that regard. With that in mind, here are the players that I think would count for and against the Vikings.

Players Gained

WR Devin Aromashodu - 1 year/$685,000
DT Remi Ayodele - 3 years/$9,000,000
OL Charlie Johnson - 3 years/$10,500,000

Players Lost

DE Ray Edwards - 5 years/$30,000,000
QB Tarvaris Jackson - 2 years/$8,000,000
LB Ben Leber - 1 year/$1,250,000
WR Sidney Rice - 5 years/$41,000,000

Leber was released by the Rams a few weeks back, so it's likely that he really wouldn't count. But, as you can see, the Vikings certainly lost a lot more than they gained in free agency this year (in terms of both salary and production), so two compensatory picks isn't an entirely unreasonable suggestion. I'm not sure if they'll be a pair of fourth-rounders or anything, but in a fairly deep draft, any picks are good ones. With the Vikings being guaranteed a top six selection, the odds of them getting one of those picks that gets tacked onto the end of the seventh round seems to be likely as well.

Minnesota also has a few other late round picks coming in. They lost their sixth-round pick in the Donovan McNabb trade, but have three others coming in. . .a sixth-rounder from the Cleveland Browns from the Jayme Mitchell trade, a seventh-rounder from the Giants in the Sage Rosenfels/Darius Reynaud deal, and a seventh-rounder from the New England Patriots for the Randy Moss trade. That gives them nine picks of their own, with the possibility of two or three more coming their way, and the likelihood that the team will trade down to amass more picks, particularly if they lose to the Chicago Bears on Sunday and wind up with the #3 overall selection.

The 2012 NFL Draft is going to be a huge one for the Minnesota Vikings. The more bites they get at the apple, the better things will be for them as the team rebuilds.

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Comments

Here's hoping they pick the right people with all these picks

There have been some gret picks in recent years and some reeaally bad picks as well. being tht this is an important draft for our rebuilding i just hope this is one of them grade A draft years.

As much as i’d hate losing to our division rival that 3rd pick would make our draft position much better for the entire draft. So while i’ll be rooting for them to win…deep down im kinda hoping we lose by a field goal in overtime, in other words I dont want our butts to get kicked like our last meeting.

by reebs on Dec 31, 2011 1:05 PM CST reply actions

Here is my prediction.

First here are the rules …

Compensatory picks

In addition to the 32 picks in each round, there are a total of 32 picks awarded at the ends of Rounds 3 through 7. These picks, known as “compensatory picks,” are awarded to teams that have lost more qualifying free agents than they gained the previous year in free agency. Teams that gain and lose the same number of players but lose higher-valued players than they gain also can be awarded a pick, but only in the seventh round, after the other compensatory picks. Compensatory picks cannot be traded, and the placement of the picks is determined by a proprietary formula based on the player’s salary, playing time, and postseason honors with his new team, with salary being the primary factor. So, for example, a team that lost a linebacker who signed for $2.5 million per year in free agency might get a sixth-round compensatory pick, while a team that lost a wide receiver who signed for $5 million per year might receive a fourth-round pick.

If fewer than 32 such picks are awarded, the remaining picks are awarded in the order in which teams would pick in a hypothetical eighth round of the draft (These are known as “supplemental compensatory selections”).

Compensatory picks are awarded each year at the NFL annual meeting which is held at the end of March; typically, about three or four weeks before the draft.
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Then we have this …
http://adamjt13.blogspot.com/2010/03/projecting-2010-compensatory-nfl-draft.html

In adamjt13’s story he says this …

Last year, regardless of playing time or postseason honors, the third-round comp players had signed for at least $6.5 million per season, the fourth-round comp players had signed for $4.8 million to $6 million, all but one of the fifth-round comp players had signed for $4 million to $5 million, the sixth-round comp players had signed for $2.7 million to $3.9 million, and the seventh-round comp players had signed for less than $2.65 million per season. Note that there are huge gaps between some rounds, and that there is an overlap between the fourth and fifth rounds because of the adjustments for playing time. You’ll find the contract values for each round of this year’s projected picks in the list a few paragraphs below this one.
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As Chris said above here are the players lost and signed that qualified …

The Vikings lost Sidney Rice, Ray Edwards, Tavaris Jackson, and Ben Leber as qualifying free agents.

The Vikings signed Remi Ayodele, Devin Aromashodu, and Charlie Johnson who were qualifying free agents.

So Sidney Rice’s contract averages 8.3 mil per year. Ray Edwards’ contract averages 6 mil per year. Tavaris Jackson’s contract averages 4 mil per year.

I am not sure about Leber. He appeared in 7 games and started 3 with 15 total tackles. He was released after the 11th game so he may count towards the formula of a player lost and a player signed.

Here is some history of picks awarded lately …

In 2010 Carolina was awarded a 3rd round pick for Julius Peppers who signed a 6 year 84 mil deal. Green Bay was awarded a 4th round pick for Aaron Kampman who signed a 4 year 24 mil deal.

In 2009 Cincinnati was awarded a 3rd round pick for Justin Smith who signed a 6 year 45 mil deal. They also lost Madieu Williams who signed a 5 year 33 mil deal with us. Chicago received a 3rd round pick for Bernard Berrian who signed a 6 year 42 mil deal. New England received a 3rd round pick for Asante Samuel who signed a 6 year 57 mil deal. The Giants received a 3rd round pick for Kawika Mitchell who signed with the Bills (I could not find his deal).

So based on this history and the fact that the Vikings signed Charlie Johnson to a 3 year 10.5 mil deal, Remi Ayodele to a 3 year 9 mil deal, and Devin Aromashodu to a 1 year deal (not sure of how much but probably between 1 and 1.5 mil), I have been predicting ….

The Vikings will get a 3rd round compensatory pick for Sidney Rice and a 7th round pick for Ray Edwards.

I think that I could be off in that Edwards may get the Vikings a 4th round pick instead of that 7th because of the contract he signed. I still believe they have to get a 3rd for Rice.

I will go with my first prediction in my mocks but may change it up from time to time. :)

by MarkSP18 on Dec 31, 2011 1:09 PM CST reply actions

I would love an extra 3rd and 4th rd picks

We have done quite well for ourselves lately on the 4th round- with Ballar and Griffen. Asher Allen has been the best 3rd pick we have had (and only 3rd round pick) of late, I hope we really improve in that round.

by nmvikesfan on Dec 31, 2011 1:33 PM CST up reply actions

well done Mark...

this is very similar to the analysis I was working on as well. Salary far outweighs any of the other considerations (playing time/honors, etc.) so I agree;

we’ll end up with a 3rd and a 7th. I’ll be shocked if it’s anything different than that, based on my analysis (and yours above).

by DJSkillz on Jan 1, 2012 12:15 PM CST up reply actions

If we have the #3 pick we definitely will have some options

But either way we will be in good standing, because we will still be able to get quality players who fit what we need. I like the fact that we are going to have 9 plus draft picks (possibly 12) where we are getting younger and can bring in players that fit what we are trying to do here. I like last years draft I think they did a good job IMO and with us drafting at the top of the draft and GB drafting at the bottom of it, we can close the talent gap with them and the rest of the North which IMO is the reason why we lost so many games, we just didn’t have the horses to run with them.

by nmvikesfan on Dec 31, 2011 1:19 PM CST reply actions