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Issues With Leslie, Part Two

So after the first part of "Issues With Leslie," there were some folks that noticed that I didn't mention anything about clock management, which seems to be another problem that our new head coach is struggling with.

That's why this is in parts, ladies and gentlemen.

I do have an issue with Leslie Frazier's clock management, but not in the spot you might think from this past Sunday's game.

As "filbert33" pointed out in the FanPosts, ESPN's Kevin Seifert pointed out that, in the mathematical sense (which I'm not sure if Frazier could have possibly known at the time, but anyway), attempting to stop the Broncos from scoring on the game's final possession was the right move.

I checked with ESPN's analytics team to see if the Vikings would have increased their mathematical win probability with such an unorthodox move. The short answer from Alok Pattani was no, based on an ESPN model built off thousands of individual play results over the past decade. The Broncos had a 95.3 percent chance to win the game the moment they made the interception. Had the Vikings allowed an immediate touchdown, their chances of driving the field for a touchdown on their ensuing possession and ultimately winning the game in overtime was 2.5 percent. So statistically speaking, the Vikings had a better chance of stopping the Broncos' final possession, as they tried to do, than pulling off a non-traditional miracle.

Now, I know that allowing the Broncos to score would have given Percy Harvin the chance to potentially return another kickoff (provided that Matt Prater wouldn't have blasted it nine yards deep like he did on the previous kickoff), but either way, after the interception, the chances of winning were basically in Lloyd Christmas territory regardless of what path the Vikings would have taken.

So, I'm not going to kill Leslie Frazier for that. However, one of the drives leading up to that is where I have an issue.

Star-divide

The Vikings started their second-to-last offensive possession at their own 20-yard line with 8:52 left on the clock. In ten plays and five minutes, after a hands to the face penalty against the Broncos, the Vikings had a 1st-and-10 at the Denver 20-yard line with 3:54 left on the clock.

The Vikings had a huge time of possession advantage in this game, and the Broncos' defense was clearly getting worn out. You would think that this is the sort of situation that would have been tailor-made for Toby Gerhart to pound into the middle of the Denver defense and, if necessary, force Denver to burn their timeouts, as they had all three of them left at the time.

Here's how the play calling sequence went from there.

1-10-DEN 20 (3:54) 7-C.Ponder pass incomplete short left to 19-D.Aromashodu.
2-10-DEN 20 (3:47) 7-C.Ponder sacked at DEN 21 for -1 yards (98-R.McBean).
3-11-DEN 21 (3:15) (Shotgun) 7-C.Ponder pass incomplete deep right.

Three consecutive pass plays, two of which wound up being incomplete. Pretty much no time taken off of the clock, and Denver being allowed to conserve all three of their timeouts in case they had needed them later on in the game.

That's the issue I have here, folks. I know that Christian Ponder was rolling and everything, but when you've worn out a defense and you have a running back that has been doing a great job of being a sledgehammer for most of the afternoon, you can't afford to be taking sacks and throwing incomplete passes. The Vikings probably could have afforded to run on first and second down, if not on all three downs. If Denver burns their timeouts, fine. . .that's what you want them to do. If they don't call their time outs, you're taking time off the clock and leaving yourself less of an opportunity to get Tebowed. But the Vikings basically did their job for them.

I'm hoping like heck that these are just growing pains for Leslie Frazier, because I really, really want to like the guy as a coach and I want to see him do well. Heck, he had two successful challenges in this one, which is something I'm not sure has happened for the Vikings since the challenge system was instituted, so the man isn't completely clueless or anything. I'm just under the impression at this point that he, like everyone and everything else about the current incarnation of the Minnesota Vikings, can only get better from here.

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Leslie

Why does anyone think this guy is ready I for head coach? What has he done to give you any confidence? ? All he does is stand on the sideline with that stupid blank look on his face and his arms folded. His clock management and use/non use of timeouts is a damn joke

by NYVIKINGS65 on Dec 6, 2011 10:17 AM CST via mobile reply actions  

And he run the ball inside twice

And failed to convert the pass on third down, you’re telling me that you would not have complained at all? If so, I don’t think I believe you.

by amiller92 on Dec 6, 2011 10:18 AM CST reply actions  

I don't know

If I wouldn’t have complained at all, per se.

But to not even run the ball once in that situation is kind of inexcusable, in my opinion.

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"Don't do anything by half. If you love someone, love them with all your soul. When you go to work, work your ass off. When you hate someone, hate them until it hurts." - Henry Rollins

by Christopher Gates on Dec 6, 2011 10:21 AM CST up reply actions  

Maybe you're different from me

But the thing that tends to frustrate me the most is when coaches completely abandon a strategy that’s been working for clock reasons.

That is, I hate in it college basketball when teams stop playing offense to hold the ball for 30 seconds, trying to score at the last second to run time and preserve their lead. It seems like that often set’s up the other team’s comeback because you stop scoring.

Similarly, I tend to hate it when the Vikes decide that they can only run the ball between the tackles when they have a lead at the end of a game when what they need to do is get a few first downs to finish off the game. In those situations, running the maximum time off the clock on the three plays you have should be less desirable than being able to run 6 or 8 or however many plays (and the time they take).

This doesn’t sound like quite that situation, but I guess I’d still rather stick what’s working than make a major change to something that doesn’t work.

by amiller92 on Dec 6, 2011 11:44 AM CST up reply actions  

but in this case they wouldn't abandon their strategy....

all afternoon they were running toby with pretty decent success, if they used a 2 back set, with a lead blocker….or try one of the harvin reverses…

our red zone offense just stinks. I don’t know if it’s due to the short field/lack of room, but it seems like when we get into the red zone, we can’t move the ball. it feels like they abandon the strategy that moved the ball to that point when they get into the red zone, actually.

I have to agree entirely with this post…

by michiganpat on Dec 6, 2011 11:58 AM CST up reply actions  

Coaches need to be adaptable - you don't blindly stick to something just because "it's been working"

If the game situation evolves, GOOD coaches need to evolve with it – this definitely includes clock management.

He should have gone with the running plays, it was a huge mistake not to. We can only hope that Frazier improves and quickly or it’s time for a new coach. I think we can all see that.

by Wytefang on Dec 6, 2011 2:33 PM CST up reply actions  

Here's the thing

What I want to do in that situation, and frankly on every possession, is score. You do that, and there is no need to manage the clock.

Obviously, you’re ahead and it’s nearing the end of the game, then you want to take less risk, but I still want to try to score.

Is handing the ball to Gerhart they way to do that? Depends on what the defense is doing.

by amiller92 on Dec 6, 2011 4:17 PM CST up reply actions  

maybe, maybe not

how about handing it to harvin?

by michiganpat on Dec 7, 2011 6:59 AM CST up reply actions  

I don't think the coaching staff is trying to win.

If they played these rookies in man coverage instead of zone they would be allot better. At this point they have little to gain being competative. They are more into training and evaluating rookies at this point.

by emeyenburg on Dec 6, 2011 10:29 AM CST reply actions  

I do believe you're correct

We know Gerhart can run, but we don’t yet have a good bead on Ponder or some of the receiving crew.
Maybe it’s just wishful thinking, but putting the rookies in very high pressure situations to see how they react might be part of the game plan.

by cyberuck on Dec 6, 2011 10:49 AM CST up reply actions  

I don't see why

Why would man make the rookies better? You know it’s generally harder, right?

by amiller92 on Dec 6, 2011 11:45 AM CST up reply actions  

Easier scheme though

Playing man coverage is an easier scheme, as you just take a man and cover him. In zone, the scheme is more complex as you have to shift your zone depending on the routes that are run. A lot of times you’ll let a guy in and out of your zone and pass them off to another guys zone. The problem we had yesterday is, the rookies didn’t know their zone assignments well enough, and the Broncos receivers were able to exploit it at will.

Playing man coverage, while it’s harder from a technique standpoint, and will wear down a defense faster, it’s much easier from a scheme standpoint. And based on all the backups and rookies we have that are still learning the system, I think we ought to run more man.

SKOL Vikings!

by CCNorsemen on Dec 6, 2011 12:11 PM CST up reply actions  

scheme change during the season?

If they are confused now just wait until they have to pick up a whole new style of play in one week

I don’t trust any of our secondary to be able to play man, maybe Benny Sapp and that is a big maybe. They are just undeveloped, not quite ready for the nfl or historic underachievers… the fact that there are 5 defenses ranked behind us passing wise is extremely surprising (Packers are second to last Patriots are dead last…yes you read that correctly)

you play to WIN THE GAME, that's the great thing about sports

by Grape Drank on Dec 6, 2011 10:03 PM CST up reply actions  

Too often

in the latter parts of games we give up on the run. We work really hard to ware down the teams over the course of a game then in the last 5 minutes we completely give up on the run. I do not understand this and it happened a lot in games this year. You can run the ball at the end of the game even if you have to go the distance of the field!

Try to learn from others mistakes because there just is not enough time in this world to make them all your self

by montana vikes fan on Dec 6, 2011 10:32 AM CST reply actions  

Great example. It is clear that the Vikings lost this game as a team; coaching staff and players. As a previous commenter noted, winning does nothing for the Vikings at this point. Does a 3-9 team inspire you any more than 2-10 team? Besides the turnovers by a young qb and the at-this-point-to-be-expected horrible coverage by a depleted secondary the Vikes played a competative game.

One stat line proves the Vikings coaches weren’t trying to win this game: 47 pass attempts. Ponder showed a lot Sunday, but if you’re putting the game in his hands at this point, game killing turnovers are exactly what should be expected. The Vikings have some leeway to allow him to gamble.

by LoveHate on Dec 6, 2011 11:29 AM CST reply actions  

I would disagree from a team stand point

If we are to keep the same coaching staff and most of our players, a believe in the system the coaches are using is required to becoming a winning team. If nothing you did last year worked, what is going to make you get on board next year? So if we are going to keep most of our coaches and most of our players and win next year the addition of a couple of players will not change the outcome with out the players buying in. The question then becomes are the coaches selling something worth buying?

Try to learn from others mistakes because there just is not enough time in this world to make them all your self

by montana vikes fan on Dec 6, 2011 11:34 AM CST up reply actions  

sorry

should say a belief in the system, I really need to prof read!

Try to learn from others mistakes because there just is not enough time in this world to make them all your self

by montana vikes fan on Dec 6, 2011 11:35 AM CST up reply actions  

You didn’t really address anything I commented about, but I agree that going forward the coaching staff needs to be addressed.

A wholesale change is absurd because it is never going to happen and probably never should after just one year. Last spring with an impending lockout, most organizations did the most reasonable thing by keeping as much continuity as possible in their coaching staffs. Changes are bound to be made this year. The Vikings, in the process of getting younger and for the sake of longevity, need to have more teachers in the building. The Vikings seem to only promote backups in cases of injury and need to focus on developing their talent and depth.

Between the lockout, a total system change and a rookie qb, Musgraves’ offense has shown flashes and should be given the benefit of an off season for complete implementation.

by LoveHate on Dec 6, 2011 12:57 PM CST up reply actions  

the

part does it make a difference to win a game or two at this point. It my point is that it does make a difference. Sorry if I was not very clear.

Try to learn from others mistakes because there just is not enough time in this world to make them all your self

by montana vikes fan on Dec 7, 2011 12:23 AM CST up reply actions  

Big issue I have with the secondary

is the seeming lack of understanding/ communication/ whatever it is between the corners and safeties. How often are we blowing coverage because nobody seems to know who’s covering who? SportsCenter did a great (and painful) job yesterday breaking down one particular instance of the Vikes simply being clueless in coverage- the corner dropped off as if he expected the safety to take the WR, but the safety was completely in the wrong position to do so (and the blame would be with both safety and corner in that situation). That was just one example of multiple times I’ve seen that this season. I’ve got to put a large chunk of that on the coaching/ coordinating staff- either our ‘fillers’ in the secondary are so terrible they can’t learn responsibilities and plays in practice, or our coaches are doing a horrible job in outlining and explaining the plays. I know that defense is largely reactionary playmaking, but all the same that kind of boneheaded error, especially when repeated over and over, is unexcusable, and once again in a big way on our defensive staff.

Dear Offensive Line... (follow Game Threads for the rest).

Daily Norseman

by KJSegall on Dec 6, 2011 11:38 AM CST reply actions  

we were out five people from the secondary

I think it’s safe to say there will be miscommunications…

The Vikes aren't in a remodeling or reconstruction they are in a burn the place down and start praying they don't mimic the Lions rebuilding process.

by Grime on Dec 6, 2011 11:52 AM CST up reply actions  

Except...

this has been a problem all season long. I understand that the near constant rotation of new guys in will cause problems here and there, but it seems to be a very constant thing.

Dear Offensive Line... (follow Game Threads for the rest).

Daily Norseman

by KJSegall on Dec 6, 2011 11:54 AM CST up reply actions  

I think it is safe to say

that even Tim Tebow could hit these receivers they were so wide open.

Try to learn from others mistakes because there just is not enough time in this world to make them all your self

by montana vikes fan on Dec 6, 2011 12:49 PM CST up reply actions  

Completely Agree Mr. Gates

There are other examples of poor clock management too:

Week 2 vs Tampa: saved 3 timeouts at the end for absolutely no reason, could have stopped the clock and given the defense a fighting chance. Tampa was at the 9 yard line with 1:08 to go, and we saved all 3 timeouts there. Dumb.

Week 6: Burned an unnecessary timeout immediately after a commercial timeout. Dumb.

Week 11: Took a timeout after the 104 return, and then another with 3:54 to go, both for odd reasons. Shouldn’t we have preserved those timeouts for stopping the clock when the other team had the ball, or during a desperation 2-minute offense?

I’m sure there are others, but those are the 3 big glaring clock management errors I’ve noticed this season. I can’t wait for Part Three!

SKOL Vikings!

by CCNorsemen on Dec 6, 2011 12:24 PM CST reply actions  

Perhaps I spoke too soon.

Frazier isn’t perfect. He still has a lot of learning to do, especially with clock management, and tough 4th down/end of half/game decisions. But, after watching his wired segment on NFL Replay, I think we’re all making a LOT more out what are non-issues.

SKOL Vikings!

by CCNorsemen on Dec 6, 2011 10:44 PM CST up reply actions  

Also

Week 1: With a lead in the second half, ran the plays in less than 20 seconds each, on average, instead of using the whole 45 second clock to keep the defense on the field. This was compounded by bad playcalling which resulted in quite a few 3-and-outs, so we basically just allowed the opposing team more time to score against us.

Week 2: Same

Week 3: Same

by liveforadrenaline on Dec 7, 2011 4:29 PM CST up reply actions  

I am not too concerned.

First, the decision to not let the Broncos score at the end of the game was the correct one for the situation. If we were still in the playoff hunt, things might be different. But at this point, winning only hurts us.

As far as not trying to run the clock down, the Broncos were keying on the run at that point. They knew that we would be trying to run the clock out, so we went the other way. If it had worked, everyone would have claimed brilliance on the part of Frazier.

There are a few red flags here and there, but can you honestly say to yourself that Frazier is worse at clock management than Childress was? I mean, Childress was terrible 4 years into his HC career, and this is Frazier’s first.

by Bjorno on Dec 6, 2011 12:52 PM CST reply actions  

better than chilly at clock management

isn’t saying much….

of course, both came from Andy Reid’s staff, who is probably among the worst at clock management.

by michiganpat on Dec 6, 2011 2:05 PM CST up reply actions  

To me this is all hindsight second-guessing and nit-picking.

The play calling was intended to score 7, which is as it should have been. Had Ponder not made the critical mistake at the end we could have used the 1:30 to score the winning FG.

Also, for everyone who needs to criticize Frazier for always looking calm and composed (clueless is usually how it is characterized), his composure actually reminds me of Bud Grant… another stoic man who’s emotions were completely unreadable. Admittedly, Grant had a more serious demeanor, still…

This game actually made me more comfortable with Frazier. After watching the debacle that was our secondary Sunday, I now have confidence that our coaches have been putting the best players on the field.

by Jshore on Dec 6, 2011 12:57 PM CST reply actions   1 recs

That's a good point.

now we just need better players.. :D

The Vikes aren't in a remodeling or reconstruction they are in a burn the place down and start praying they don't mimic the Lions rebuilding process.

by Grime on Dec 6, 2011 1:41 PM CST up reply actions  

Wouldn't the whole passing three times thing fall on Musgrave?

I could be missing something, but Musgrave’s play calling has been very inconsistent this year. I wouldn’t put three passes in a row on Frazier, per say, but I understand the gripe.

"Like I said, I don’t think anybody on this team knows what schism is, let alone could use it in a sentence. I thought it was an STD when I first heard it. And I was like whoa, we preach abstinence around these parts." - Jared Allen

by Landonio on Dec 6, 2011 1:17 PM CST reply actions  

yeah it would

However I generally like Musgrave as an OC. he seems to keep it interesting. I just don’t think we have the personnel to make his dream a reality.

The Vikes aren't in a remodeling or reconstruction they are in a burn the place down and start praying they don't mimic the Lions rebuilding process.

by Grime on Dec 6, 2011 1:44 PM CST up reply actions  

I do as well,

I thought that it was okay to see Ponder try to air things out. I think with an offseason or two, our offense will be a ton better. Who knows how well we would have done had we had AP the last couple of games?

"Like I said, I don’t think anybody on this team knows what schism is, let alone could use it in a sentence. I thought it was an STD when I first heard it. And I was like whoa, we preach abstinence around these parts." - Jared Allen

by Landonio on Dec 6, 2011 1:51 PM CST up reply actions  

General question

Has there ever been a fanbase that was happy with it’s coaches clock management?

I don’t think I am aware of one.

by amiller92 on Dec 6, 2011 1:19 PM CST reply actions  

That’s because you’re part of the Viking fanbase.

If we can't laugh at ourselves, Packer fans will call us crybabies and we will be forced to kick their tooth in. I really don't want to go to jail (again).

by Alittlemore_cowbell on Dec 6, 2011 1:25 PM CST up reply actions  

Nope

I’ve heard it about the Washington franchise, Eagle, Giants and Ravens at different times.

by amiller92 on Dec 6, 2011 1:43 PM CST up reply actions  

Has it ever occured to anyone

that Musgrave might have been throwing down the field because he thought the Broncos would be expecting the Vikes to run too TRY and wear down the clock. He may have tried to “fool the fools” and ended up being the fool.

Say fool a few times and it starts to sound funny, and why is not spelled like phool? or fewl? English is a goofy language..

by tuckingfenpin on Dec 6, 2011 1:38 PM CST reply actions  

that wouldn't suprise me

but it seems like a lot of times Musgrave, especially in red zone situations completely overthinks things trying to out think the opposition. reminds me of Vizzini from “The Princess Bride”…

even if the vikes were trying to run and the broncos knew it, we were getting enough push, especially with the People’s Champion in the fullback position to most likely get a first down and use up a good minute+ and probably Denver’s time outs…..

by michiganpat on Dec 6, 2011 2:12 PM CST up reply actions  

Now, I know that allowing the Vikings to score would have given Percy Harvin the chance to potentially return another kickoff (provided that Matt Prater wouldn’t have blasted it nine yards deep like he did on the previous kickoff), but either way, after the interception, the chances of winning were basically in Lloyd Christmas territory regardless of what path the Vikings would have taken. should it say broncos or denver instead of vikings to score?

by skol viking on Dec 6, 2011 2:05 PM CST reply actions  

My bad

And corrected. Good catch!

SBNation Minnesota - For the greatest sports fans in the world.
The Daily Norseman - The greatest Vikings' site on the Internet!
"Don't do anything by half. If you love someone, love them with all your soul. When you go to work, work your ass off. When you hate someone, hate them until it hurts." - Henry Rollins

by Christopher Gates on Dec 6, 2011 2:56 PM CST up reply actions  

an ESPN crystal ball...??

who’da thunk it…

"Th_r_'s n_ h_p_ f_r _ssh_l_ f_ckw_ts."

Can I buy a vowel...?? +1, Kluwe.

by rj-b on Dec 6, 2011 2:20 PM CST reply actions  

Too bad you guys ran Denny outta town.

“Couldn’t win the big game!” At least we got to get drunk with our buddies watching one or two games in the playoffs.

by fanslaststand on Dec 6, 2011 2:39 PM CST reply actions  

My biggest issues are with the coordinators

And I am willing to cut Musgrave some slack because he had no offseason to implement his playbook (any notice his play card on the sidelines? It’s the size of an index card) and he has a rookie QB running the show.

Pagac is another story. He is actually regressing IMO. I will give him the benefit that he has a depleted secondary. However the fact that he was sticking to the Cover 2 on Sunday, despite the fact that Denver was mostly employing a doubles formation, leads me to believe that he is out of touch. A lot of people wanted to blame the communication between the corners and safeties, however I will gladly clear the air and tell you that had nothing to do with it. In the Cover 2, the corners generally play within 10-15 yards of the LOS and have the area commonly referred to as the “flats.” The flats are the area from the sideline to approx 5 yards to the TE or OT in width and up to 15 yards from the LOS in depth. After that depth, the corner releases the receivers to the safety. So how do you beat cover 2? You line up 2 receivers to each side, send the slot receivers on deep routes that occupy the middle of the field (a post or 7 route) and send the wide receivers on verticle or 9 routes, which is exactly denver was running against us.

So when our corners were releasing the outside receivers to the safety, the safety was being occupied by the slot receiver running to the post. Essentially they were damned either way. I blame Pagac for sticking with the defense, not our DBs.

"At this point, what we got to lose, right? So we might as well throw caution to the wind and hit people in the face."
--Vikings DE Jared Allen

by NMVike on Dec 6, 2011 4:24 PM CST reply actions  

I think you're right

The Vikings retooled the entire offensive coaching staff going into 2011. . .I have a feeling the entire defensive coaching staff (with the possible exception of Singletary. . .again, I don’t know if that’s good or bad) is going to get overhauled going into 2012.

SBNation Minnesota - For the greatest sports fans in the world.
The Daily Norseman - The greatest Vikings' site on the Internet!
"Don't do anything by half. If you love someone, love them with all your soul. When you go to work, work your ass off. When you hate someone, hate them until it hurts." - Henry Rollins

by Christopher Gates on Dec 6, 2011 4:54 PM CST up reply actions  

Well just like I suspected

They showed D. Thomas’s interview on NFL Replay tonight, and that’s extactly what denver’s coaches saw so that’s what they ran at the VIkings.

"At this point, what we got to lose, right? So we might as well throw caution to the wind and hit people in the face."
--Vikings DE Jared Allen

by NMVike on Dec 6, 2011 9:18 PM CST up reply actions  

Based Frazier's Wired Segment...

You’re right about the breakdown in the secondary. However, if Frazier is right, they weren’t “damned if you do, damned if you don’t.” If Griffen jams Thomas at the line, it gives the D-line extra time to get to Tebow as it slows down the receiver, and it simultaneously takes the pressure off the safety. But, Griffen did not jam Thomas at the line, unfortunately and he ran free and open into busted coverage.

SKOL Vikings!

by CCNorsemen on Dec 6, 2011 10:54 PM CST up reply actions  

I see your point

But I would counter by saying that it was obvious that the corners were trying to disguise the cover 2 look by playing off the WR’s in hopes of confusing Tebow. Now whether they did this on their own or were told to do this by Pagac or Joe Woods is the question.

But regardless, the slot WR’s ran skinny post routes which occupied both safeties. If the safeties helped cover the 9 routes, then the post routes would have been open. That’s why you don’t run Cover 2 vs doubles and that’s what I meant by the safeties were damned if you do damned if you dont.

"At this point, what we got to lose, right? So we might as well throw caution to the wind and hit people in the face."
--Vikings DE Jared Allen

by NMVike on Dec 7, 2011 9:39 AM CST up reply actions  

I think what is missing out of these two posts is a mention

that Frazier was the defensive coordinator for the Vikings the past few years. In other words, it is HIS system and HIS players. We have given him a pass on personnel because of Childress, however, we seem to give him a pass on the defensive scheme this year, even though it is EXACTLY THE SAME as his own defenses in the past. I would give Pagac another year and force Frazier to accept changes to the defensive system. If he won’t, he should be gone.

by Chris3 on Dec 7, 2011 9:10 AM CST reply actions  

From what I saw on replay last night...

Frazier is the type of head coach who lets his coaches coach. He lets his veteran players lead. Frazier is not the type to step on people’s toes. I have seen this method work, provided that you have surrounded yourself with quality people. I have my doubts as to how much quality there is with regards to the defensive coaches.

"At this point, what we got to lose, right? So we might as well throw caution to the wind and hit people in the face."
--Vikings DE Jared Allen

by NMVike on Dec 7, 2011 9:35 AM CST up reply actions  

They lost...

… and let’s leave it at that. They should have won that game, but they lost it.

I wouldn’t think that hard about getting a win that just moves them down in the draft picks. Losing wasn’t the worst thing that could have happened.

We found out that basically none of the substitute secondary players are able to play. We found out what we suspected, that Rudolph could become a very, very good tight end (in fact, why he isn’t already hauling in tons of passes is the most disappointing and mysterious thing right now). That’s progress, if they put what we all learned to good effect in the draft.

by HammeroftheGods on Dec 7, 2011 9:31 AM CST reply actions  

You missed the actual blunder

All you are doing is playing Monday morning quarterback. If Ponder had completed the first pass for a TD I doubt you’d be writing this article about how lucky they got. If Toby had been stuffed 3 consecutive runs, I again doubt that you’d be here talking about how brilliant that was either. They tried something and you can’t say how smart it was based on the result.

However, Frazier does have awful clock management skills and they made a pathetic call in the first half indicitive of their poor clock skills. With 2:07 remaining in the first half, the Broncos were stuffed on 3rd down and would have to punt. The Vikings used a timeout to stop the clock. This is idiotic. If they let the clock run to the 2 minute warning, the Broncos punt after the break and you have the ball with 1:52 and one extra timeout, since punts stop the clock on possession change. With what they did they got the ball with 2 minutes remaining due to the two minute warning.

They essentially burned a timeout to save 7 seconds.

This is stupid on two levels. Level one is that you don’t know how your next drive is going to go. That is why you try to wait as long as you can to burn the timeouts, within reason. For all you know Sherels will return the punt for a TD, or Ponder will throw a pick on the first play, and then any timeouts you burned in advance of the drive are now helping your opponent.

But the main level it is stupid on is that a timeout is worth more than 7 seconds if you call it after an inbounds tackle on your ensuing drive. During this final first half drive there were situations where the extra timeout would have given them additional options to score a TD or get a closer field goal attempt. I can’t say for certain that the timeout cost them points this time, but I’d say on average statistically wasting a timeout right before a 2 minute drive is probably worth 0.5 or 1.0 points or something. Maybe one out of four or one out of 8 it costs you a field goal or TD.

These types of blunders can cost you a few points here and there. If you have a poor clock manager, in today’s NFL with so many games that is likely to cost you on average one game per year.

I know I’m making up numbers and estimations but I think most of you would agree that bad clock management will cost you a few field goals per season and that at least one of those games is likely to be lost by said field goal.

by Sand0 on Dec 8, 2011 1:37 PM CST reply actions  

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