FanPost

Demystifying playoff records of NFL QBs


Thanks to this article from pro-football-reference.com, we can all learn a few things about how quarterbacks have performed in NFL playoff games.  Based on degrees of standard deviation (of rushing, OL and defensive support), some circumstances were Impossible for any QB (Dan Marino won the most nearly impossible game in which the opposing team had gained more than 150 yards more than the Dolphins did on the ground).  Some were Gimmes that any QB could have celebrated a win with his teammates.  The rest were Difficult (in which QBs won 9% of such games), Neutral (50%) or Easy (92%).  In case you haven't read the article linked in the first sentence of this paragraph, go ahead and read it now.

Taking those ideas one step further, I wondered how the lot would stack up based on actual win% - expected w%:

QB  Games Exp. W%  W% W% - Exp. W% Imp W  Imp L  Diff W  Diff L  Neu W  Neu L  Easy W  Easy L  Gimme W  Gimme L
Billy Wade  1 48.4% 100.0% 51.6% 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
Bobby Layne  4 36.3% 75.0% 38.7% 0 1 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0
Frank Reich  2 70.0% 100.0% 30.0% 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0
Drew Brees  6 41.0% 66.7% 25.7% 0 1 1 0 2 1 1 0 0 0
Kurt Warner  13 45.6% 69.2% 23.6% 0 1 2 1 4 2 3 0 0 0
Tobin Rote  4 51.5% 75.0% 23.5% 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 0
Ben Roethlisberger  10 57.4% 80.0% 22.6% 0 0 0 1 5 1 3 0 0 0
Norm Van Brocklin  4 28.8% 50.0% 21.2% 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0
Aaron Brooks  2 28.8% 50.0% 21.2% 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
Chris Miller  2 28.8% 50.0% 21.2% 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
David Garrard  2 28.8% 50.0% 21.2% 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
Rodney Peete  2 28.8% 50.0% 21.2% 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
Tommy Maddox  2 28.8% 50.0% 21.2% 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
Tom Brady  18 58.9% 77.8% 18.9% 0 1 1 0 7 3 4 0 2 0
Johnny Unitas  8 56.4% 75.0% 18.6% 0 0 0 1 4 1 0 0 2 0
John Elway  21 49.0% 66.7% 17.7% 0 4 0 2 9 0 2 1 3 0
Marc Bulger  3 16.1% 33.3% 17.2% 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
Mark Sanchez  3 49.7% 66.7% 17.0% 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0
Dan Marino  18 30.0% 44.4% 14.4% 0 8 1 0 5 2 1 0 1 0
Daunte Culpepper  4 36.3% 50.0% 13.7% 0 1 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0
Bart Starr  10 76.4% 90.0% 13.6% 0 0 1 0 2 0 4 1 2 0
George Blanda  4 37.3% 50.0% 12.7% 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0
Earl Morrall  5 67.4% 80.0% 12.6% 0 0 0 0 2 1 1 0 1 0
Jeff Hostetler  5 67.4% 80.0% 12.6% 0 0 0 0 2 1 1 0 1 0
Jay Schroeder  5 47.4% 60.0% 12.6% 0 1 0 0 2 1 1 0 0 0
Joe Montana  23 57.1% 69.6% 12.5% 0 2 1 2 6 3 6 0 3 0
Ken Stabler  12 46.0% 58.3% 12.3% 0 2 2 0 2 3 1 0 2 0
Troy Aikman  15 61.0% 73.3% 12.3% 0 0 0 2 5 2 5 0 1 0
Vinny Testaverde  5 28.0% 40.0% 12.0% 0 3 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0
Wade Wilson  5 29.0% 40.0% 11.0% 0 2 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0
Peyton Manning  18 39.8% 50.0% 10.2% 0 2 1 4 5 3 2 0 1 0
Eli Manning  7 47.6% 57.1% 9.5% 0 1 0 0 3 2 1 0 0 0
Vince Ferragamo  6 40.8% 50.0% 9.2% 0 2 0 0 2 1 0 0 1 0
Stan Humphries  6 41.5% 50.0% 8.5% 0 2 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0
Tommy Kramer  4 41.7% 50.0% 8.3% 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 1 0
Gifford Nielsen  1 91.7% 100.0% 8.3% 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Mark Rypien  7 63.7% 71.4% 7.7% 0 0 0 1 2 1 1 0 2 0
John Brodie  5 32.7% 40.0% 7.3% 0 0 0 2 2 1 0 0 0 0
Jake Delhomme  8 55.2% 62.5% 7.3% 0 1 0 2 1 0 3 0 1 0
Dan Fouts  7 35.8% 42.9% 7.1% 0 1 0 1 3 2 0 0 0 0
Rich Gannon  7 50.1% 57.1% 7.0% 0 0 0 1 3 2 0 0 1 0
Jake Plummer  6 26.4% 33.3% 6.9% 0 2 0 2 1 0 1 0 0 0
Ken Anderson  6 26.4% 33.3% 6.9% 0 2 0 2 1 0 1 0 0 0
Fran Tarkenton  11 49.7% 54.5% 4.8% 0 2 0 2 2 1 2 0 2 0
Steve Young  14 52.5% 57.1% 4.6% 0 2 0 2 3 2 3 0 2 0
Jeff Garcia  6 28.8% 33.3% 4.5% 0 0 1 2 1 2 0 0 0 0
Babe Parilli  2 45.9% 50.0% 4.1% 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Mark Malone  2 45.9% 50.0% 4.1% 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Chris Chandler  3 62.8% 66.7% 3.9% 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0
Joe Namath  3 62.8% 66.7% 3.9% 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0
Terry Bradshaw  19 64.6% 68.4% 3.8% 0 1 0 2 3 2 4 0 6 0
Donovan McNabb  16 52.6% 56.3% 3.7% 0 1 0 3 4 3 3 0 2 0
David Woodley  5 56.7% 60.0% 3.3% 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 0
Dan Pastorini  5 56.9% 60.0% 3.1% 0 1 0 1 0 0 3 0 0 0
Jim Kelly  17 50.2% 52.9% 2.7% 0 3 0 3 3 2 2 0 4 0
Jeff George  3 30.6% 33.3% 2.7% 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Brett Favre  24 51.8% 54.2% 2.4% 0 2 0 6 4 3 6 0 3 0
Tony Eason  5 57.7% 60.0% 2.3% 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0
Bill Nelsen  5 37.7% 40.0% 2.3% 0 2 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0
Bob Waterfield  2 48.4% 50.0% 1.6% 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0
Bubby Brister  2 48.4% 50.0% 1.6% 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0
Lynn Dickey  2 48.4% 50.0% 1.6% 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0
Steve Beuerlein  2 48.4% 50.0% 1.6% 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0
Steve Fuller  2 48.4% 50.0% 1.6% 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0
Joe Theismann  8 73.6% 75.0% 1.4% 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 4 0
Warren Moon  10 29.2% 30.0% 0.8% 0 0 0 6 2 1 1 0 0 0
Phil Simms  10 59.4% 60.0% 0.6% 0 1 0 1 2 2 1 0 3 0
Jim Plunkett  10 79.5% 80.0% 0.5% 0 0 0 0 1 2 6 0 1 0
Pete Beathard  2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Aaron Rodgers  1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Bob Avellini  1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Cody Carlson  1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jack Trudeau  1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kelly Holcomb  1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tommy O'Connell  1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mike Tomczak  5 60.2% 60.0% -0.2% 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 2 0
Jay Fiedler  3 33.6% 33.3% -0.3% 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0
Steve Walsh  3 33.6% 33.3% -0.3% 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0
Danny White  10 50.3% 50.0% -0.3% 0 1 0 2 2 2 1 0 2 0
Scott Brunner  2 50.4% 50.0% -0.4% 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0
Dave Krieg  9 34.1% 33.3% -0.8% 0 3 0 2 1 1 1 0 1 0
Craig Morton  10 50.8% 50.0% -0.8% 0 0 0 2 3 3 0 0 2 0
Len Dawson  8 63.4% 62.5% -0.9% 0 2 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0
Joe Kapp  4 51.5% 50.0% -1.5% 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0
Rex Grossman  4 51.5% 50.0% -1.5% 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0
Richard Todd  4 51.5% 50.0% -1.5% 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0
Steve DeBerg  4 26.5% 25.0% -1.5% 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0
Bob Lee  3 35.3% 33.3% -2.0% 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0
Shaun King  3 35.3% 33.3% -2.0% 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0
Ron Jaworski  8 52.0% 50.0% -2.0% 0 0 0 3 1 1 1 0 2 0
Frank Ryan  3 36.4% 33.3% -3.1% 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0
Otto Graham  7 60.7% 57.1% -3.6% 0 0 0 0 2 3 2 0 0 0
Doug Williams  7 61.2% 57.1% -4.1% 0 1 0 0 1 2 2 0 1 0
Chad Pennington  6 37.4% 33.3% -4.1% 0 0 0 3 1 1 0 0 1 0
Bob Griese  11 58.7% 54.5% -4.2% 0 2 1 0 0 3 1 0 4 0
Roger Staubach  17 69.1% 64.7% -4.4% 0 0 0 0 4 6 1 0 6 0
Gus Frerotte  2 4.6% 0.0% -4.6% 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jim Hart  2 4.6% 0.0% -4.6% 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mark Brunell  10 54.7% 50.0% -4.7% 0 1 0 2 1 2 2 0 2 0
Philip Rivers  7 47.6% 42.9% -4.7% 0 1 0 0 2 3 1 0 0 0
Randall Cunningham  9 38.5% 33.3% -5.2% 0 2 0 2 1 2 2 0 0 0
Trent Dilfer  6 88.6% 83.3% -5.3% 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 3 0
Bernie Kosar  7 48.2% 42.9% -5.3% 0 1 0 1 2 1 1 1 0 0
Neil O'Donnell  7 50.1% 42.9% -7.2% 0 0 0 1 2 3 0 0 1 0
Jim Everett  5 47.4% 40.0% -7.4% 0 1 0 0 1 2 1 0 0 0
Jim Harbaugh  5 47.4% 40.0% -7.4% 0 1 0 0 1 2 1 0 0 0
Joe Flacco  5 69.0% 60.0% -9.0% 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 0
Cliff Stoudt  1 9.2% 0.0% -9.2% 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Don Strock  1 9.2% 0.0% -9.2% 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eric Hipple  1 9.2% 0.0% -9.2% 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Matt Ryan  1 9.2% 0.0% -9.2% 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Milt Plum  1 9.2% 0.0% -9.2% 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Neil Lomax  1 9.2% 0.0% -9.2% 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Paul McDonald  1 9.2% 0.0% -9.2% 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Quincy Carter  1 9.2% 0.0% -9.2% 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Scott Zolak  1 9.2% 0.0% -9.2% 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sean Salisbury  1 9.2% 0.0% -9.2% 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Todd Blackledge  1 9.2% 0.0% -9.2% 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Boomer Esiason  5 69.8% 60.0% -9.8% 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 2 0
Joe Ferguson  4 36.3% 25.0% -11.3% 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0
Brad Johnson  7 69.2% 57.1% -12.1% 0 1 0 1 0 0 2 1 2 0
Steve Bartkowski  4 38.6% 25.0% -13.6% 0 0 0 1 1 2 0 0 0 0
Kerry Collins  7 56.8% 42.9% -13.9% 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 2 0
Matt Hasselbeck  9 58.4% 44.4% -14.0% 0 1 0 0 1 4 2 0 1 0
Michael Vick  4 64.4% 50.0% -14.4% 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 2 0
Drew Bledsoe  6 64.7% 50.0% -14.7% 0 1 0 0 0 2 1 0 2 0
Bert Jones  3 16.1% 0.0% -16.1% 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Steve Grogan  3 16.1% 0.0% -16.1% 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Steve McNair  10 66.1% 50.0% -16.1% 0 0 0 1 1 3 4 1 0 0
Don Heinrich  3 82.8% 66.7% -16.1% 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 0
James Harris  3 49.5% 33.3% -16.2% 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0
Daryle Lamonica  9 60.8% 44.4% -16.4% 0 0 0 2 0 3 2 0 2 0
Jim McMahon  6 67.6% 50.0% -17.6% 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 0 3 0
Pat Haden  5 58.7% 40.0% -18.7% 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0 1 0
Jack Kemp  6 52.5% 33.3% -19.2% 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 0 2 0
Elvis Grbac  3 52.5% 33.3% -19.2% 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0
Bobby Hebert  3 19.2% 0.0% -19.2% 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0
Kordell Stewart  4 74.2% 50.0% -24.2% 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 0
Dieter Brock  2 74.2% 50.0% -24.2% 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0
Pat Ryan  2 74.2% 50.0% -24.2% 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0
Scott Mitchell  2 24.2% 0.0% -24.2% 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Tony Romo  4 49.4% 25.0% -24.4% 0 0 0 1 0 2 1 0 0 0
Billy Kilmer  7 55.0% 28.6% -26.4% 0 1 0 0 0 4 1 0 1 0
Y.A. Tittle  4 26.5% 0.0% -26.5% 0 1 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 0
Carson Palmer  2 28.8% 0.0% -28.8% 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0
Doug Flutie  2 28.8% 0.0% -28.8% 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0
John Hadl  2 28.8% 0.0% -28.8% 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0
Ken O'Brien  2 28.8% 0.0% -28.8% 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0
Mike Phipps  2 28.8% 0.0% -28.8% 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0
Roman Gabriel  2 28.8% 0.0% -28.8% 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0
Trent Green  2 28.8% 0.0% -28.8% 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0
Erik Kramer  3 64.2% 33.3% -30.9% 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0
Don Meredith  4 59.2% 25.0% -34.2% 0 0 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 0
Charlie Conerly  2 48.4% 0.0% -48.4% 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
Anthony Wright  1 48.4% 0.0% -48.4% 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Byron Leftwich  1 48.4% 0.0% -48.4% 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Chris Simms  1 48.4% 0.0% -48.4% 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Danny Kanell  1 48.4% 0.0% -48.4% 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Gary Danielson  1 48.4% 0.0% -48.4% 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Greg Landry  1 48.4% 0.0% -48.4% 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Jeff Kemp  1 48.4% 0.0% -48.4% 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Jim Miller  1 48.4% 0.0% -48.4% 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Jon Kitna  1 48.4% 0.0% -48.4% 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Marc Wilson  1 48.4% 0.0% -48.4% 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Rob Johnson  1 48.4% 0.0% -48.4% 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Scott Hunter  1 48.4% 0.0% -48.4% 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Steve Bono  1 48.4% 0.0% -48.4% 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Tarvaris Jackson  1 48.4% 0.0% -48.4% 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Todd Collins  1 48.4% 0.0% -48.4% 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Ty Detmer  1 48.4% 0.0% -48.4% 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Vince Young  1 48.4% 0.0% -48.4% 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Virgil Carter  1 48.4% 0.0% -48.4% 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Brian Sipe  1 91.7% 0.0% -91.7% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Gary Cuozzo  1 91.7% 0.0% -91.7% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Johnny Lujack  1 91.7% 0.0% -91.7% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Todd Marinovich  1 91.7% 0.0% -91.7% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Tom Matte  1 91.7% 0.0% -91.7% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0

This FanPost was created by a registered user of The Daily Norseman, and does not necessarily reflect the views of the staff of the site. However, since this is a community, that view is no less important.

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