Demystifying playoff records of NFL QBs

The great QBs have not necessarily played more playoff games according to this data:

• Brett Favre, for instance, has played 24 playoff games, but only went 4-9 in in neutral and difficult games. The implication is that Green Bay was a good team for many years, and his playoff performances were often below average.
• Meanwhile, 60% of Warren Moon’s playoff games were difficult (none impossible) compared to 25% for Favre. Moon’s 3-1 record in neutral and easy games is about the same as Favre’s 10-3 record in neutral and easy games. Thankfully, Moon is already in the Hall anyway, and rightfully so, but what if Moon’s Oilers had had the same quality of D that the Packers had during the Favre era? My guess is that Moon would have 20-something playoff games and Favre would have been limited to something closer to 10.
• This also made Kurt Warner look even better, despite playing in fewer playoff games than some. He is the only one on this list to have a winning record in difficult games, neutral games, and easy games with no gimme games. When he led a 4th qtr comeback TD drive in the SB a couple of years ago only to watch his D lose the game, that pretty much symbolized how much of his career had gone, as the Rams were one of the worst Ds to ever win a SB and almost gave up another yard or two too many to the Titans at the very end. According to this, Warner should be a HoFer.
• Unitas only had 8 games on this list, but was an impressive 4-1 in neutral games.
• A couple of HoFers with lots of games stand out, too. 9 of Montana’s 23 playoff games fell into the gimme and easy categories. He proved his worth by going 6-3 in the neutral games, but it certainly helped that his team only put him in difficult or impossible circumstances a handful of times. Elway’s teammates had put him in difficult or worse circumstances 6 times out of 21 playoff games, but he won all 9 neutral games.

Not all of the QBs who won more difficult games than expected are considered great: Van Brocklin, Warner, Garcia. (The other 7 are.)

A look at Gannon and Brad Johnson shows that they weren’t simply “winners” who put their respective teams on their backs. They had a lot of help. Johnson was given easy or gimme circumstances in 5 of 7 playoff games and only won 4 of those. Gannon only had 1 gimme game and 1 difficult game and did about as well as expected in 5 neutral games.

Yes, it is absolutely important to have a strong running game and defense (esp. a pass defense in this era).

are the 2 who look even better in this light (and Elway and Moon to lesser degrees).

The “any given Sunday” notion is dispelled by 3 things:
1) The fact that there are impossible, difficult, neutral, easy and gimme circumstances which predict the outcome far better than a random guess.
2) Elway’s, Marino’s, Montana’s, Warner’s, Roethlisberger’s and several others’ records in neutral games. When the amount of support was nearly the same, the great QBs were the difference makers in those games. Staubach, Hasselbeck and McNair were not able to win those games.
3) The QBs with the most playoff games also played on teams that had strong running games, receiving corps and/or strong defenses.

Chase Stuart did the real work in his article, though.