Kevin Seifert Looks At Quarterbacks, Presents Faulty Logic
by Christopher Gates on Feb 25, 2011 12:43 PM CST
in Minnesota Vikings
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So, in his latest post on ESPN's NFC North blog, former Vikings' beat writer and current ESPN blogger Kevin Seifert looks at the Vikings' quarterback situation. Most of it is stuff that we already knew, and makes sense. . .until we get to the end of the article, where Seifert gives us a list of first-round quarterbacks that Minnesota has "passed" on from 1990 to 2009. The table is, to say the least, hilarious.
First of all, here are some of the quarterbacks that we allegedly passed in given years, and the player the Vikings took instead.
1997 - Minnesota, selecting 20th overall, "passed" on Virginia Tech's Jim Druckenmiller in favor of Alabama linebacker Dwayne Rudd.
Results - Rudd was a pretty solid linebacker for the time he was in Minnesota, and for a few years elsewhere. . .Druckenmiller lasted two years in the NFL with the Niners, had a career completion percentage of about 40%, and was never heard from again.
More after the jump.
2002 - Minnesota, with the 7th overall pick, "passed" on Tulane's Patrick Ramsey to select Miami offensive tackle Bryant McKinnie.
Results - Yeah, drafting Patrick Ramsey with the 7th overall pick would have been a brilliant idea. Yeesh. But, hey, he's on our roster now. . .that has to make up for it, right?
2003 - The Minnesota Vikings "passed" on both Florida's Rex Grossman and Cal's Kyle Boller, instead opting to take some schmuck defensive tackle named Kevin Williams from Oklahoma State with the 7th 8th 9th overall selection.
Results - Heck, I'm surprised that Seifert didn't throw Byron Leftwich in there, too. . .it would have enhanced the suckage a little more. Still, we had to "settle" for the guy that's turned into one of the NFL's best interior defensive lineman instead of opting for one of those three sure-fire superstars.
2004 - Selecting at 20th overall again, the Vikings "passed" on Tulane's J.P. Losman in order to select USC defensive end Kenechi Udeze.
Results - J.P. Losman is bouncing around the UFL somewhere, I think. Kenechi Udeze, whose career was cut short by his battle with leukemia and once went an entire year as a starter without registering a sack, is still at least twice the player that Losman is. Probably more.
2007 - Again with the 7th overall pick, the Vikings "passed" on Notre Dame superstar Brady Quinn in order to take some loser running back named Adrian Peterson.
Results - Boy, the Vikings sure jacked this one up, didn't they? Instead of taking the best running back in the league, they could have opted for the guy that was last seen carrying Tim Tebow's clubs in Denver.
Seifert also points out that the Vikings "passed" on both Aaron Rodgers and Jason Campbell in 2005. . .and, he's right. The Vikings could have drafted either of those guys, and they didn't. However, there was a teeny-tiny little reason for that.
See, at the time, the Vikings had a 27-year old starting quarterback named Daunte Culpepper that had put up these numbers the season before:
69.2% completion rate, 4,717 passing yards, 39 TD, 11 INT
Can someone verbalize exactly how stupid the Vikings would have looked had they spent a first-round draft choice on a quarterback in 2005? Because I, personally, am having difficulty in doing so. I mean, yeah, if we had the clairvoyance necessary to tell us that Culpepper would get his knee turned into spaghetti six months after this draft took place, then Rodgers or Campbell would have been brilliant picks. But, we didn't.
He also points out that we missed out on Drew Brees in 2001, drafting running back Michael Bennett instead. Again, I feel compelled to point out that Culpepper's first year as a starter was the 2000 season, and all the kid had done that year was lead the Vikings to the NFC Championship Game. Spending a first-round draft choice on a quarterback, again, wouldn't have made a darn bit of sense.
Yeah, the Vikings haven't had the greatest quarterback lineage recently, and I do like the majority of Seifert's work. . .but his list of the quarterbacks that the Vikings have "missed out on" is dubious, at best.
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I think you might want to take another look at Seifert’s piece. He’s not claiming the Vikings should have made any of those picks, in fact he explicitly says it’s pretty hard to accurately predict who is going to make a good pro QB.
“As the second chart shows, they haven’t had many opportunities. The Vikings’ prospects for drafting a blue-chip passer at No. 12 overall are murky at best, but years of neglect and poor evaluations have left the Vikings in an unenviable spot.”
Haven't read the article
but Siefert is typically known for dry humor and coming from Minnesota, I hardly believe he’s dumb enough to make cases for the Vikings “missing out” on those quarterbacks. Are you sure you read the article correctly and didn’t just skim the opening paragraphs?
I think you missed the point of the chart, Chris.
Right before the chart Seifert says “As the second chart shows, they haven’t had many opportunities [to draft a quarterback].” I think the point of the chart is to show is that the Vikes haven’t really been in a position to draft a QB in recent memory. This is for two reasons: (a) when the Vikes have had a top 10 pick, there really weren’t that many good QB prospects; and (b) for the most part, we’ve had middle of the road picks b/c we’ve ascribed to the “Band-Aid” approach, assuring mediocrity and depriving us of the ability to grab a top-tier QB prospect.
It's entertaining nonetheless
To see these QBs and actually be pretty happy that we didn’t draft any of them. So we have actually(aside from drafting TJack, played our QB situation “perfectly” the last 10 years. haha
I get what everyone is saying
About not having opportunities and things like that.
The problem is that the only way to get a “franchise quarterback” in many cases is to be terrible the year before. You can trade up for a quarterback, but trading up (or down) always requires a team that’s willing to accommodate you.
Really, I get that the Vikings’ “approach” to quarterbacking isn’t optimal or anything like that, but really. . .what else were they supposed to do given the situations they were in?
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by Christopher Gates on Feb 25, 2011 1:21 PM CST reply actions
Trade up
Sure, teams have to accommodate the decision to do so, but the Jets were able to do it a couple years ago for Sanchez. There are opportunities there, the Vikings have chosen not to take that route and so far I’m pretty happy with their drafts the last few years.
The only QB I think we really “passed” on wasn’t really actually available when we picked. That would be Jay Cutler in 2006. The Broncos traded picks 15 and 68 to move up to #11 for Cutler and we could have probably made a similar trade. Remember that we picked at 17 and had two 3rds that year. If we had wanted to do it, we could have. (BTW, I’m not saying I’m sorry we got Chad Greenway instead, but I’m thinking about what should have been done at the time with what we knew then)
But that was when Childress (who was obviously petrified of having an NFL caliber QB on his team) was just getting started, and when we had a GM/player personnel guy in place who was fired shortly after the draft.
We really haven’t had many opportunities, picking in the 20s virtually every season. Even without a good QB, we’ve been competitive enough to pick closer to the bottom of the draft than the top, where the franchise guys usually go.
Ya hard to detect sarcasm from writing
But I would guess that Seifert is actually proving the point that the Vikings are in this situation largely due to not being in position to draft a decent QB.
BSM presents a valid arguement about missing out on Cutler because we were not the team to trade up to get him. And yes Rogers was missed twice and Brees was missed also. The only one that realistically was a major mistake was not taking Rogers. Especially since both of those 1st rounders we took were huge busts. But even at that, it wouldn’t have made sense to take Rogers after the year Pep had in 04.
"I am patient with stupidity but not with those who are proud of it."
Interesting
I looked at the last 10 years since 2001 and all the QBs selected. There have been very few trades in the first round.
In 2010 Denver traded #43,&70,&114 to move up to #25 and pick Tebow.
In 2009 the Jets traded #17 & #52 to move up for Sanchez
In 2009 Tampa traded #19 & 91 to move up for Freeman
In 2004 San Diego raped the Giants by trading Eli Manning for Philip Rivers getting a 2004 3rd which they turned into Nate Kaeding and a 2005 1st which they turned into Shawne Merriman.
In 2001 Atlanta traded #5, #67, & a 2002 2nd to San Diego to move up to #1 and pick Vick.
There has not been much movement in the first round when you consider there were 27 QBs taken in the first round in this time frame. The Jets trade seems to be the most dramatic with the Vick trade right behind. I will not count the Denver trade because who knows why they did that.
It seems for the most part teams stayed in their spot and took a player that fell to them. That is not to say that the Vikings should not move UP if they felt it was necessary. It is just a look back at how things went down the majority of the time.
The one thing that the Vikings could have done in this time period which would not be popular here is to NOT make the Jared Allen trade. If Chilly would have changed his mind about TJack then he may have had QB as the most pressing issue going into the 2008 off season. So instead of trading for Allen he could have kept his picks (and money) and selected Joe Flacco at #17. That is the only thing the Vikings probably should have done.
You know
I might just have to make a poll question out of that.
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by Christopher Gates on Feb 25, 2011 2:43 PM CST up reply actions
True
The man makes a good point. We could have been holding a SB trophy this year. Wouldn’t have had the ’09 season we had, but could have some magic brewing/brewed already.
Well hindsight is 20/20
and the DE spot would have had to be manned by Robison, Edwards, & Mitchell.
But on September 17, 2008, the Seahawks released DE Jason Babin. Perhaps the Vikings would have picked him up?
The first 4 rounds could have went like this without trading up for Tyrell & Booty ..
17. Joe Flacco QB
47. DeSean Jackson WR
73. Cliff Avril DE
82. Tyvon Branch CB/S
117. Jacob Tamme TE
150. Carl Nicks G
152. Letory Guion DT
187. John Sullivan C
193. Pierre Garcon WR
226. Peyton Hillis FB – this pick was traded to the Jets for Brooks Bollinger!
You also have to consider scheme/locker room/coaching staff
all play a major factor in developing a quarterback. Just because Joe Flacco has worked out well for the Ravens and their team/staff, doesn’t mean he would’ve fit well with the Vikings.
I always look at a player like Rex Grossman and think what could have been if he wasn’t drafted by the Bears, who have NEVER had a great quarterback and is in a sports market where the fans and media will come down on your head with a hammer if you throw one interception.
Hindsight is always 20/20
But you still bring up a great point in this. I wouldn’t say it fully absolves us of the way we’ve worked with our QB situation, but it does take some of the sting away. And for sure, those ‘missed opportunities’ make absolutely no sense. I can name maybe 4 QBs (Brady, P. Manning, Brees, Rodgers) that I would rather have than both K. Williams and AP- and I will undoubtedly get flack for even saying that much.
Nothing's tougher than being a diehard Vikings fan.
Well I did do a fan post about the necessity of having a GM
I really believe that the Vikings should have had one even before Chiily was hired.
The 2005 Draft was especially painful in retrospect.
I think now is the time to have a real GM or at least a person in charge of player personnel/acquisition. Maybe Spielman is already in that role. I hope so.
We missed Brees Twice. The second time was the one that hurt.
He was looking for a new home when we were getting rid of Pep.. We just didn’t believe Brees could recover from that awful shoulder surgery.
IT IS TIME TO DO WHAT IT TAKES TO DRAFT A FRANCHISE QUARTERBACK.
No more old guys. No more excuses. No more passing up our own great drafted quarterback.
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