Adam Caplan Says "Most Teams" Don't Have A First-Round Grade On Locker
by Christopher Gates on Mar 26, 2011 1:04 PM CDT
in 2011 NFL Draft
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PrintWe've heard all sorts of conjecture and hearsay about how teams have quarterbacks rated going into the 2011 NFL Draft. With the Vikings being one of the teams that is most assuredly in the market for a young quarterback, most of this news is of great interest to us.
In a chat over at Fox Sports yesterday, Adam Caplan offered this tidbit on Washington signal caller Jake Locker:
(Locker) looks the part with athleticism and arm strength, but his accuracy is a major problem and the reason why most teams don't have a first-round grade for him. However, it only takes one team to draft him in the first, not 32, so I wouldn't rule him out going that high.
I've said this numerous times about Jake Locker thus far, and I'll say it again. I'll start believing that Jake Locker is a potential quarterback of the future for this team to build around as soon as someone points out to me the last quarterback that went from college to the NFL and became a more accurate passer.
But, as Caplan says, it only takes one team to fall in love with him to make him a first-round pick. But the longer I think about it. . .much to the chagrin of folks like Paul Allen and Judd Zulgad. . .I sincerely hope that team isn't the Minnesota Vikings.
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If the Vikings really want him
You will see them trade down to get him
No point in taking him that high if no one else even wants to take him in the 1st, or maybe they use the 2nd rounder on him
Formerly thewild_viking_twins. Because my old profile was kidnapped by ninjas, and I was NOT a bad enough dude to rescue it...
Truth is...
He’s better then anything we have on our roster.
Draft a QB! Please God!
by Macdaddy4508 on Mar 26, 2011 3:49 PM CDT up reply actions
Draft Stanzi in the 3rd if that's the strategy.
Or pick up Hasselback. He’s better than Webb right now.
Skol!
don't even waste a pick on him
The Vikings should go after either Dalton or mallet.
Id agree, but...
Last time i did i spent 15+ posts being told what an idiot I was so….carry on :P
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I can get on board with Dalton
Not a huge fan of Mallett, but his talent is there. I question his committment, that’s not something to be taken lightly.
Skol!
If it came down to it...
Id take Dalton in a heartbeat. But I dont see Mallet as a BAD choice, maybe not the best, but certainly not a BAD one.
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Agreed
Though his commitment to the game is a major concern. Guys like Peyton Manning are studying film on their next opponent on the flight home after away games. The kind of dedication and hard work it takes to be a successful NFL QB is scary and I want someone that wants to work the hardest.
The key here...
Is that he knows what his issue is with the accuracy problems.
Mayock pointed out in a few videos that his main issue is that Locker has a tendency to have a closed stance which causes him to take a bigger step when stepping into the ball. This causes a lot of balls to sail.
The funny thing is, Locker pointed this issue out to Mayock prior to Mayock pointing it out on the NFL network.
I think he has almost everything we want, but I am always wary of accuracy issues. Mayock seems to think he can improve drastically through an easy change in stance. I take a lot of what he has to say to heart, and if both he and Spielman think that Locker can improve his accuracy through a simple change… I trust their judgment.
Let’s also keep in mind that in the two years that Musgrave spent with Matt Schaub in college, his accuracy jumped from 58% to 68%. That should give us a little more optimism.
Now, I am by no means the right guy to judge Locker, as I have never watched a single game he played. But I won’t be mad if they do indeed pick him in the first round. Though I don’t know if #12 is the right position to be grabbing him.
Agreed
That is his problem and he is working to fix it. The biggest evidence is that his accuracy improves tremendously outside the pocket, when his set feet aren’t causing a problem. And I have a lot of faith in the coaching staff Frazier has assembled to get the absolute best out of anyone they pick
His feet issues come from his baseball background, but now that he isn’t playing ball anymore, it should be easy enough to fix. That said, no team is going to risk taking him in the 1st round unless they are 100% sure that his issues are mechanical and fixable.
If that issue is that fixable, Locker could easily end up as the best QB in this class. He has all the physical tools and intangibles you look for.
Yep...
Throwing a baseball and swinging a bat use much larger strides than the quick-release motion of throwing a football.
But I am still wary. Not many college QB’s improve their accuracy moving from the college level to the NFL like Gates mentioned.
It's true
If it weren’t for the issues with his feet I’d had written him off completely.
But he really does have a very accurate arm when he moves around outside the pocket so I think there is something to the mechanics issue. I have faith in the organization that they won’t take him unless they are sure his problems are fixable.
But...
isn’t Locker thinking about doing baseball during the lockout? Might actually enhance the problem with stances and what-not, or at least further entrench the problem.
Ah, the failed attempt at returning Moss home. It was like '98 and '09 were about to make sweet, sweet love and give us a glorious '10 child.
www.dailynorseman.com- THE place for true Viking fanatics.
This 1st round pick has me worried
Like a fork in the road of our Viking’s future between returning to contention or remaining in last place for years to come. QB in the 1st seems to me such a high risk proposition that to swing and miss will set us back for years. I read the Vikings are on a list of 9 teams having another meeting with Cam Newton. San Francisco was not on the list – Jim Harbaugh said CN was “plutonium grade raw material”. Speculation is SF is working a trade for Kolb.
If we go QB at 12 I almost hope its someone with a big time arm like Mallet. It’s also worth noting the Patriots recently worked out Stanzi. It may be different circumstances from their team to ours, but I’d like to have their history of smart draft picks. We’ve mainly done well in the draft when we went BPA, like drafting Moss when we already had Carter and Reed. Or drafting AP when we already had Chester. Who might be a similar player this year? RB Mark Ingram. Imagine that 1-2 punch.
I've give that suggestion a while back
and everyone here called me insane and retarded. I’m glad to see someone else see how amazing a one two punch those two would be.
nothing against the BPA approach, but...
…how many championships has that won for us…?? i know that’s simplified (and borderline flawed) logic, but that point remains.
as much as i dislike the Jets Rex Ryan, they traded up to get Sanchez — and they’ve been to the AFC championship two years in a row. now, i’m not advocating the Vikes trading up, but the Jets’ scenario might say something for targeting a player you like and doing what it takes to get him — it hasn’t won them any championships either, but their record of getting closer to one is better than ours in recent years…
Stanzi is a very interesting option
instead of trading down for Locker why not pick best available at #12(WE can use help just about everywhere)and use our second on Stanzi he is a very good option for QBOF and he might just be able to start this year, but if not we can pick up a vet for a year or so.
"If you've got them by the balls their hearts and minds will follow."
John Wayne
by just another viking on Mar 26, 2011 5:14 PM CDT reply actions
wouldn't bother using a 2nd round pick on stanzi
he will probably be on the board in the 5th round
Nope
Not a chance that happens. I could conceivably see him making it to the 3rd round, but there is zero chance he gets to round 5.
i'm sure most teams have him rated in the 4th
unless you’re a team like the Pats who could afford to use a 3rd rd pick on him.
The QB's are all moving up
Any team that needs a QB can address those needs in the first 2 rounds. Stanzi stands to be moving up into those rounds when the pickings become slim.
Stanzi is a good fit for a team with an already established QB...
…such as the Pats, Chargers, hell, even the Ravens. there are certainly a lot of teams that need QBs, but i think we (as fans) over-hype them a bit too much, especially when FA is still on hold.
Possibly, but...
There hasn’t been a draft in recent memory with this many QB’s receiving a 1st and 2nd round grade.
we're still a month out...
…the QB hype will cool down, even with those in-the-know. be that as it may, you’re right, we’ll probably have a half dozen QB’s taken in the first two rounds.
I'd rather take Quinn or Bowers in the 1st
Then come back with Kaepernick in the 2nd. This kid has the accuracy and arm strength. He is a pitcher as well and only played QB 3 years. He is learning and will only get better. This strategy would give us a pass rusher and the QB of the future with our first two picks.
Actually
HIs accuracy is a bit of a concern. As is his ability to handle reads at an NFL level.
But I agree with the idea in principle. I think there will be a run on QB’s in the top 10 and we’ll see a Bowers, Prince, Jones, Green or Quinn drop down to us at 12. It’ll be a great chance to snag a top 5 talent at a discount price. There should be some very good QB’s available at the top of the 2nd round still.
Kaepernick played QB all four years at Nevada
in fact he was a 4 year starter.
"I am patient with stupidity but not with those who are proud of it."
4 yrs of experience
is something to note.
Ive said before i LOVE when they have more then a year or 2 under their belts. You can actually SEE what they do, how they grow etc….
Kaeper should be there in the 2nd round easily, allowing us to trade around for our 1st worst case and still walk away with a GOOD QB. Kaeper and Dalton are my fav 2nd rounders.
**Rupert for ProBowl 2012!**
I didn't intend on giving Kaepernick a vote of confidence
PJ had indicated that Kaepernick had only played the position for 3 years, implying that Kaepernick had a high ceiling in terms of his potential. I was simply pointing out that Kaepernick has more experience at QB than some of these other prospects as an arguement against any perceived potential that he hasn’t already shown in his 4 years at Nevada; which was largely spent operating a system that doesn’t resemble anything in the slightest to an NFL offense.
"I am patient with stupidity but not with those who are proud of it."
I am warming up to Dalton though!
"I am patient with stupidity but not with those who are proud of it."
Chick moment....
Hey we know he looks good in purple!
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better late than never!
Don’t get me wrong, I always liked the kid’s ability. I watched beat up on the Lobos for 4 years now. But I am a little concerned about his size and arm strength. I did watch his interview on NFL Net a few days ago and I came away very impressed with what he said.
"I am patient with stupidity but not with those who are proud of it."
as soon as someone points out to me the last quarterback that went from college to the NFL and became a more accurate passer.
Didn’t Steve Young do something like that?
Ah, the failed attempt at returning Moss home. It was like '98 and '09 were about to make sweet, sweet love and give us a glorious '10 child.
www.dailynorseman.com- THE place for true Viking fanatics.
Kind of
He did go from a 53.5% in ’88 to a 69.6% in 89. But he completed 71.3% of his passes his final year of college.
Plus, Young didn't go to the NFL right away
He spent a year or two in the USFL before he went to Tampa.
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by Christopher Gates on Mar 26, 2011 9:16 PM CDT up reply actions
Also true.
Double touche.
Ah, the failed attempt at returning Moss home. It was like '98 and '09 were about to make sweet, sweet love and give us a glorious '10 child.
www.dailynorseman.com- THE place for true Viking fanatics.
Funny story about that
Young still get paid for his USFL days. He deferred his 10 year, $40 million contract over 40 years. He will be receiving 6-7 figure checks until 2027…
Ah.
OK. I knew he had improved his accuracy at one point but I didn’t know if that was from college. I guess he doesn’t count then.
Ah, the failed attempt at returning Moss home. It was like '98 and '09 were about to make sweet, sweet love and give us a glorious '10 child.
www.dailynorseman.com- THE place for true Viking fanatics.
To: Mr. Christopher Gates...
I’ve said this numerous times about Jake Locker thus far, and I’ll say it again. I’ll start believing that Jake Locker is a potential quarterback of the future for this team to build around as soon as someone points out to me the last quarterback that went from college to the NFL and became a more accurate passer.
Dan Marino – NCAA – 57.6% / NFL 59.4%
Joe Montana – NCAA 52% / NFL 63.2%
Peyton Manning – NCAA 62.5% / NFL 64.9%
So the only one that made a real statistical improvement is
Joe Montana. Others stayed right around the same.
Yes. That's not valid
The jump only covers their best individual college season as a starter, no averages. Therefore:
Dan Marino: 58.5%
Joe Montana: 54.2%
Peyton Manning: 64.2%
It seems worth mentioning that the NFL saw significant changes to pass interference rules in ‘77 & ’78. That means the NFL that Joe Montana entered was significantly easier to pass in than anything he (or probably Marino) faced in college (Marino’s and Montana’s college percentages in college were considered high at the time, that’s how much pass interference has changed).
Wow. I'm impressed Cobra
That could be viewed as irrelevent information by some, but I consider that. Same reason a QB who throws for 3000 yards isn’t that big of a deal anymore. The game has changed. Shit’s gettin deep in here.
Skol!
+1
This is true! I didn’t consider that…
Still, per Christopher Gates,
“I’ve said this numerous times about Jake Locker thus far, and I’ll say it again. I’ll start believing that Jake Locker is a potential quarterback of the future for this team to build around as soon as someone points out to me the last quarterback that went from college to the NFL and became a more accurate passer.”
So… now he’s got to believe that Jake Locker could be a QBOTF…
BTW… the numbers I posted up there are their career NCAA / career NFL averages per my source… click on their names, goes straight to the info…
Averages
Just FYI, The reason you don’t take college averages is a lot of QB’s struggle when they are younger. You see a lot of guys completing 50-60% of their passes as freshmen, sophomores and sometimes even as juniors, but then have a breakout senior year where things click and their completions jump to 70%. So they would have a high completion percentage that year but maybe their average is only 58%.
It also gives an advantage to guys that are only 1 or 2 year starters that had great years as upperclassmen but didn’t have to go through growing pains as an underclassmen starter.
But your point is still valid, it can be done and CG can at least rest a little easier about the potential of Locker coming to Minnesota.
Also,
how long did that jump in Montana’s accuracy take? I imagine that wasn’t 52% senior year, 63.2% rookie season.
Ah, the failed attempt at returning Moss home. It was like '98 and '09 were about to make sweet, sweet love and give us a glorious '10 child.
www.dailynorseman.com- THE place for true Viking fanatics.
Actually
He went from 54% his senior season to 64% his 2nd year in the NFL. So just two years. But as I said above, there was a significant change to the pass interference rules at around the same time he entered the league that probably contributed to that as much as anything.
The Vikings don't really have the luxury of sitting someone behind someone and waiting for them to develop
Maybe if we did have that Luxury I would be more inclined for the Vikings to try Locker but realistically we don’t have the time needed to improve Locker, and I think it is safe to assume Locker wouldn’t be able to come in and step in immediately for us.
I disagree
Locker’s trouble is a pretty quick fix. And if it isn’t fully remedied by the season, they could do a lot to get him out of the pocket to remedy it.
Locker would be the only QB that I would be excited about
The other QBs(besides Newton) in this draft just don’t have the “it” and wow factor Locker has. If we are going to take a QB, I would rather us take a gamble on a potential superstar than some mediocre safe pick. Cam Newton will likely be gone and I don’t trust him anyways. I would be more than happy with Locker in the first.
Like...
WOW thats a low WonderLick score?
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I shouldnt poke fun....
I like VY and he supposidly scored a “wheres my pencil” on his first WL :(
I just dont care for Locker as a 1st round pick in the least, but oh well :)
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Locker had a horrible Senior season...
and maybe “most teams” don’t have Locker as a 1st round grade… but considering how bad his season was, the fact that SOME TEAMS are still considering him for the 1st round tells you how good he is.
If Dalton / Stanzi / Ponder / Kaepernick had equally bad seasons … they might not even get drafted…
You wanted Andrew Luck? Let’s revisit this post next year, when he has as bad of a Senior season as Jake Locker did… we’ll see…
I’m just a Locker supporter… I think he is a top 3 QB in this draft… I think out of the top 3… he has the most potential… there is so much suggesting he will be great, and only a few things suggesting less.
Gabbert is obviously in the top 3.
Mallett could be, but he also has the most potential to bust.
Ponder seems safe / average but I don’t see superstar potential… late 1st round / early 2nd round
Newton has potential, but I see Newton as a lesser Vick, more Diva…
Um...
Where did I say I wanted Luck?
Luck has never even come into the horizon for the Viks, why would be, if he was in the draft, baring showing up for the combine in a pink jumper with braids in his hair, he would be going to Carolina.
Being a Locker supporter is fine, I dont have a problem with that. Im not one, but I dont have a problem with people supporting him. The only issue I have is with the support being semi restraining orderish :)
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Keep it going dude
I have the full blown flu and you’re bustin’ me up. Screw it I’m calling in. Better run and get some beer Nyquil.
You should call Citrus, Cali
I think he might be sick. I’ll try later. You know what Cali, the more I read about Dalton, the more he seems like a winner! Seems to have good character.
Our QB doesn't have to have an "it" factor
What the hell does that even mean anyways? Do Flacco, Ryan, or Sanchez have an “it” factor? IMO, no. Again, I don’t know what that means, but we need a solid, servicable QB. Not necessarily a game “manager”, but someone who can make throws when we need them to and keep drives alive. Whoever we get is going to have plenty of playmakers around them to succeed.
Skol!
Newton has IT written all over his butt!
The problem is, IT could be VERY VERY bad! :P
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Yea, I would have said wow if he scored in vince young territory
but he didn’t.. he scored 20 which is average. Everyone thought Cam Newton would be the lowest and that is why people are over reacting to Lockers score.
Does anybody have anything on Locker other than accuracy?
It’s hard to be “accurate” when your receivers couldn’t catch an STD raw-dawg with a hooker…
As for his Wonderlic, it’s not special, but average, and per the 26-27-60… it’s B.S.
Wonderlic’s:
B. Favre – 22
D. Marino – 16
D. McNabb – 14 (Who is up for consideration of trade)
V. Young – 6 / 16 (Who is up for consideration of trade)
My argument
for the Wonderlich scores: It’s becoming more and more important as the speed of the game and the complexity of the offenses increases. It’s not saying someone can’t figure it out, but if nothing else, it may show how long it’s going to take for them to figure it out.
Skol!
Other then?
Accuracy isnt a big deal? Isnt that like a RB having his only issue be fumbling?
Locker’s accuracy may not be 100% spot on, but hes in the draft for a reason, hes a good QB, i just dont think he should be ours :)
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Did you read the whole thing? Or just the title?
It’s hard to be "accurate" when your receivers couldn’t catch an STD raw-dawg with a hooker…
When your WR’s can’t catch anything, you start trying to compensate for why they are not catching the ball… You start maybe throwing the ball not as hard, maybe you start hesitating, you start doubting if you even want to throw the ball.
Show me his inaccuracy without throwing me the same old completion %…
How could he be accurate on the run… but not in the pocket? Isn’t that backwards?
The reason, is because when he would jump out of the pocket, the defense has to adjust, forcing coverage to react helps the WR get a step up on the coverage allowing him more room / time to catch the ball.
In the combine, they said his accuracy was a little off, but he still did good. They also said that he needed a little footwork, but that it would be easy to teach. He is known to be very coachable, and very hard working. Locker is the type of QB that will be in to practice early everyday, and staying late to study defenses. He is a leader, and has the experience to back everything up.
Touching on that
How could he be accurate on the run… but not in the pocket? Isn’t that backwards?
Your hypothesis is an interesting one (and probably has quite a bit of validity) but a big part of the reason he is more accurate outside the pocket is he doesn’t have to set his feet to throw. Since the issue with his accuracy is largely his feet, throwing on the run is actually easier for him at this point.
But you are correct that his WR’s accounted a lot for his poor completion percentages and made him look even more inaccurate than he actually is.
+1
those who don’t like Locker conveniently ignore this:
a big part of the reason he is more accurate outside the pocket is he doesn’t have to set his feet to throw.
clearly it’s a mechanical issue, and he’s already doing better. assuming he doesn’t crap all over his pro day, i don’t see why anyone wouldn’t like him in purple.
WR that cant catch
Is the best excuse for QBs, hell i use it for Mallet in his game against OSU in the Bowl, and its a GOOD one.
Im not saying Locker isnt a Great guy and im sure he feeds starving children on the weekends….
We are all making character assasinations or assumptions based off a sports writer’s opinion. Now Im not saying some of you may not be directly involed with some of these colleges and know these guys personally.
The problem with us, as a whole, using the information we are fed by the media instead of the numbers, is that some guys have better PR then others.
They are ALL gambles.
I just hope whomever we end up with turns out to be good :)
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Question
It seems that everyone’s knock on Locker is his accuracy, 55% his senior year isn’t great by any stretch of the imagination. But if his completion percentage was at 60% would we even have this debate? His senior year he threw 184/332 according to ESPN, so if he completed 16 more passes through out the year, or 1.2 more a game would everyone be happy? It just seems to be a little bit ridiculous to base everything on this one stat.
Nah
we’re knocking his wonder score too :)
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before it gets blown out again...
Please let me point to my sarcasm kkthx :)
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Thats like saying
If Ponder hadn’t gotten himself injured this past season that he would’ve had a legitimate shot at winning the Heisman. At the start of the season the ACC was supporting him for the Heisman and then once we got owned by Oklahoma and he was injured a few games later, he never made it back to the picture. But it’s an interesting what-if.
For what its worth, I’ve always thought Locker was way overrated. Not that he isn’t a good guy, just ESPN had too much of a mancrush on him from day 1.
Having said that
I still think Locker could be ok, down the road. I don’t think he is a 100% bust. I just think it will take time for him to adjust properly to the NFL. Maybe it doesn’t take that long, who knows. I just think he might have to go through some significant growing pains to become a more accurate pocket passer.
Accuracy
Here’s a look at some of the QB’s that have improved from college to pro:
Brett Farve C52.4 P61.9 *
Joe Montana C52.0 P63.2 *
Dan Marino C57.6 P59.4 #
Peyton Manning C62.5 p64.9 #
Drew Brees C61.5 P65.2
Jay Cutler C57.2 P61.6
Tom Brady C62.3 P63.6 #
Aaron Rodgers C63.8 P64.4 #
The asterisks show considerable improvement and the number signs show a very lesser amount of improvement. Both Joe M. and Brett F. were more known for the scrambling ability and improvisational skills rather than pocket passer skills. Guess what so does Locker. Don’t get me wrong I am not saying he’s the next coming of Montana or Farve but if it is just a matter of mechanics and fine tuning he actually has a better raw skill set than does either Farve or Montana, but then again so does Joe Webb. I think Locker has the highest ceiling of anyone in this draft and if they can nurture and train and fix the mechanics he could be someone special. All the other intangibles about work ethic and desire are there. Still would like to go back to 2005 when we drafted Troy Williamson and Erasmus James with Aaron Rodgers sitting there….. Crap!
OK i have to ask...
Wouldnt improving from College to Pro be kind of a HAVE to do thing?
Yes those are some big names….but its kind of a make or break thing no? Hence the big names….
We arent looking to draft a lateral QB, we are looking to draft someone who will improve with age.
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Ok
The point was a reply put out there for an earlier thread of comments that emanated from Christopher Gates and I quote:
"I’ve said this numerous times about Jake Locker thus far, and I’ll say it again. I’ll start believing that Jake Locker is a potential quarterback of the future for this team to build around as soon as someone points out to me the last quarterback that went from college to the NFL and became a more accurate passer." end quote from Christopher Gates NOT me. Just trying to show not every great quarterback had great completion percentage in the college ranks (half of the group I included were over 60% which IS considered good) but they can actually improve in the NFL. Brett Farve and Montana improved tremendously, one thing in common; West Coast Offense. They also both enjoyed much better tools at the skill positions in their careers at the pro-level than at college but that argument is specious as it could be made for most (if not all) of them.
Private workouts
The reason that 4 QBs will be having personal workouts for the Vikings is so the coaching staff, medical staff, team psychologist, and position coaches can meet with these players and make very complete assessments of the players. Its not like the coaches don’t know the college stats or haven’t heard of the importance of the Wonderlick scores. It is simply impossible for any of us fans to be able to apply what little football knowledge we have and determine how a player will fit in with the Viking team.
That said it isn’t impossible to determine certain risk factors. All of the QBs have them.
Gabbert and Newton are young players with no pro offense experience. Great upside to each.
Locker has accuracy issues. Great upside if that issue is resolvable
Mallet has “intangible” issues and is very slow afoot. He’s 6’7" tall with a cannon
Ponder has the weakest arm but is the smartest QB in the group.
Dalton is not as tall, not as athletic, and hasn’t played under center. He only wins
Each also bring their good points. Their likelihood to succeed within a certain system is far beyond our crystal ball. That being said, I really like Blaine Gabbert. He has no reported character concerns. His only knock is his youth. I can see us moving up to #6 if he is still around to grab him.
IT IS TIME TO DO WHAT IT TAKES TO DRAFT A FRANCHISE QUARTERBACK.
No more old guys. No more excuses. No more passing up our own great drafted quarterback.
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