Well, there has been some great posts (NMVIKE) about 1st round busts, where certain college stats predict a NFL qb. That got me thinking about other qbs taken after the 1st round. So I decided to look at qb's picked in the 2nd and 3rd round of the draft, and I looked from 1998 to 2010. I didn't do 4th through 7th rounders cause nobody is hanging their hat on the qbs picked in those rounds. 2nd and 3rd still have hope involved with them and I felt that this year has some decent depth on qbs (not really a top qb, but good depth). So I looked up the qbs, and got their stats and put them in a excel plot. This may suck, but I thought having the information out there would be interesting to someone. Plus the vikes might draft a qb in the 2nd round, and I want to see if the 1st round trend continues to the later rounds.
So what did I do? I plotted in two seperate graphs the 2nd round picks and the 3rd round picks with 2011 potential qbs in both. The stats I did was Passing accuracy (pass comp %) vs. games played (hard to find starts). For fun, I also created a graph with TD/INT ratio vs. Passing accuracy. I thought there could be a trend with this new comparison and I wanted to see the results. Since I did the hard work I would show the results no matter what.
Alright, first off the Passing Accuracy vs. Games Played.
So a quick look at this and you could almost say that the 1st round bust trend follows to the 2nd round. We got the great Drew Brees who passes the requirements even with Kevin Kolb also. Carter, Tuiasosopo, and Jackson were clearly busts, with Charlie Batch having a good back up career. Now there is two exceptions to the rule. We got Brian Brohm well above, but he couldn't even handle the backup role in green bay. Then there is Pat White who hasn't made too much of an appearance in the nfl yet and I'm actually not to certain where he ranks right now.
Now for the 2011 prospects. Jake Locker is in the red zone. Nobody near him had a good career. This scares me. Same with Ryan Mallett though not as much. Everyone else has decent stats, and its hard to make a strong statement on their results.
Now to the third:
Ok, analysis. Not a lot of winners out of these picks. Matt Schaub had clearly great stats, and transitioned well to the NFL. Frye has had some starts, and Whitehurst is knocking on the door to start in Seattle. There was some other starters out of this group with brian griese (name got cut off on graph) and Chris Simms who are near the 60% line. Again, the Jake Locker pick is not looking good.
Just an aside, why would you ever pick Josh McCown?
Ok, now to the new comparison graph (TD/INT vs Passing accuracy)
This is an interesting result. First off, why would the vikes ever draft Tarvaris Jackson. Low games played and bad accuracy. What I was hoping with this graph was to show that if a qb has a low TD/INT ratio and low accuracy, then they don't do well in the NFL. It's kind of there. Drew Brees is right on the 2.0 ratio mark, and I thought that might be the minimum requirement. Again Brian Brohm and Pat White did well, so they ruined my results.
Now the third:
Nothing too conclusive again, but atleast Schaub made the requirements of 2.0 TD/INT ration and 60% completion. Blaine Gabbert, Cam Newton and Andy Dalton make the list.
So overall we can make some more conclusions on these results. One is that Jake Locker still doesn't look good. I am convinced he is too much of a risk for the first 3 rounds. Blaine Gabbert and Cam Newton make most of the stats (though I'm not too sure about how many games they started). I now almost think the vikes should look at Andy Dalton. I was a Ponder supporter, and he did well, but Dalton did better pure statwise.
I don't know, what do you think?