Exploring Trade Options With The #12 Pick--Trading Up According To The Draft Pick Value Chart


First off, I have to confess something:  I HATE this draft pick value chart, just hate it.  I think it's prevented more trades over the years because somebody looked at these arbitrary numbers and thought if they did a deal, they'd be getting screwed.  With that said, it's almost a universal measuring stick of deciding how draft picks are traded in today's NFL, so it's something I have to get used to dealing with.  Kind of like Twitter.  Anyhow, Vikes de facto GM Rick Spielman said that the Vikings have been called by several teams about moving up to where the Vikings are in the draft, and, coy as he always is, he's also said that he wouldn't hesitate to move up 'a few' spots to get a guy they felt would really help the team.  So, let's look at how these trades might work out.  I'll look at three teams in the back half of the top ten, and see what it would take to make a trade happen.  And remember, no active players can be involved because of the labor dispute, and because the players might actually get their way and end the draft as we know it, I'm restricting this to only 2011 picks.  But first, the chart:

Nfl-draft-value-chart_medium

The scenarios, after the jump.

Okay, first let's look at the picks the Vikings currently own, and their respective point value*:

Rd 1:  12-1,200

Rd 2:  11 (43 Overall) 470

Rd 4: 9/106-84

Rd 5: 8/139--38 and 19/150--32.6

Rd 6:  7/172--24.6 and 35/200 (Comp Pick)--11.4

Rd 7:  13/215:  9.4, 35/236 (Comp Pick)--No value

*I used the position of where the team will pick in the respective round as opposed to the overall number of the pick, except for the first compensatory pick.  Not every pick lines up with the overall number because of the awarding of multiple compensatory draft picks.  And if the numbers are a little off in terms of point value, in the later rounds they're still very close, so a few points either way really shouldn't matter.

First off, let's look at a trade up option, and since I'm using Spielman's comments as a guide, I'll go with picks 8-10.  8 is Tennessee, 9 is Dallas, and 10 is Washington.  Looking at the chart, pick 8 has a value of 1,400 points, pick 9 is 1,350, and pick 10 is 1300 points.

Tennessee:

So if Minnesota wanted to move up to #8, it would cost them their first round pick (1,200) plus another 200 points.  A first and a second would equal 1,670 points, but I think that would be foolish, because the Vikings would not have a second or third round pick.  Bad move, but the rest of their picks combined wouldn't make up the 200 point deficit, so doing the 'Ricky WIlliams' option isn't even a possibility. 

Unless...

They could make up the other 270 points by getting some Tennessee picks back.  To equal the 270 points, Tennessee would have to give Minnesota their third round pick (205 points) and their fourth round pick (78 points). 

So a trade with Tennessee would look like this: 

Minnesota trades their first and second round pick to Tennessee (12 and 43 overall)

Tennessee trades Minnesota their First, third, and fourth round pick (8, 77, and 109 overall).

That gives the Vikings a top ten pick, no second round pick, two third round picks a third rounder from Tennessee, and two fourth round picks.

Dallas:

With the 9th pick valued at 1,350 points, the Vikings don't need to offer as much to make a move, and Jerry Jones is a wheeler and dealer.  As we know.  All to well.  For He Who Shall Not Be Named.

Anyway, Minnesota has to make up 150 points.  To do that, they have to offer their first, their fourth, and both fifth rounders, which equates to 152 points.  

That gives the Vikings the 9th pick overall, their second round pick, their third round pick, no picks in the 4th or 5th round, then two picks each in the 6th and 7th round.

Blech.

Washington:

The final team we'll look at is Washington.  Their #10 pick's value is 1,300 points, only a 100 point differential.  The easiest way to make up the 100 points is the 4th round pick (84 points), and then throw in one of the 6th round picks. 

So if they do that trade, the Vikes draft picks will be the 10th overall, their second round pick, no third or fourth round selection, both 5th rounders, one 6th rounder, and both 7th rounders.

Overall, I'm not really thrilled with any of the scenarios I just covered.

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